EnvironmetricsPub Date : 2024-11-28DOI: 10.1002/env.2892
Paul B. May, Andrew O. Finley
{"title":"Calibrating Satellite Maps With Field Data for Improved Predictions of Forest Biomass","authors":"Paul B. May, Andrew O. Finley","doi":"10.1002/env.2892","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2892","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Spatially explicit quantification of forest biomass is important for forest-health monitoring and carbon accounting. Direct field measurements of biomass are laborious and expensive, typically limiting their spatial and temporal sampling density and therefore the precision and resolution of the resulting inference. Satellites can provide biomass predictions at a far greater density, but these predictions are often biased relative to field measurements and exhibit heterogeneous errors. We developed and implemented a coregionalization model between sparse field measurements and a predictive satellite map to deliver improved predictions of biomass density at a 1 <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mi>km</mi>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {mathrm{km}}^2 $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> resolution throughout the Pacific states of California, Oregon and Washington. The model accounts for zero-inflation in the field measurements and the heterogeneous errors in the satellite predictions. A stochastic partial differential equation approach to spatial modeling is applied to handle the magnitude of the satellite data. The spatial detail rendered by the model is much finer than would be possible with the field measurements alone, and the model provides substantial noise-filtering and bias-correction to the satellite map.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143120339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EnvironmetricsPub Date : 2024-11-25DOI: 10.1002/env.2886
Kleber H. Santos, Francisco Cribari-Neto
{"title":"A Varying Precision Beta Prime Autoregressive Moving Average Model With Application to Water Flow Data","authors":"Kleber H. Santos, Francisco Cribari-Neto","doi":"10.1002/env.2886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2886","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We introduce a dynamic model tailored for positively valued time series. It accommodates both autoregressive and moving average dynamics and allows for explanatory variables. The underlying assumption is that each random variable follows, conditional on the set of previous information, the beta prime distribution. A novel feature of the proposed model is that both the conditional mean and conditional precision evolve over time. The model thus comprises two dynamic submodels, one for each parameter. The proposed model for the conditional precision parameter is parsimonious, incorporating first-order time dependence. Changes over time in the shape of the density are determined by the time evolution of two parameters, and not just of the conditional mean. We present simple closed-form expressions for the model's conditional log-likelihood function, score vector, and Fisher's information matrix. Monte Carlo simulation results are presented. Finally, we use the proposed approach to model and forecast two seasonal water flow time series. Specifically, we model the inflow and outflow rates of the reservoirs of two hydroelectric power plants. Overall, the forecasts obtained using the proposed model are more accurate than those yielded by alternative models.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143253408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EnvironmetricsPub Date : 2024-11-24DOI: 10.1002/env.2890
Brook T. Russell, Yiren Ding, Whitney K. Huang, Jamie L. Dyer
{"title":"Characterizing Asymptotic Dependence between a Satellite Precipitation Product and Station Data in the Northern US Rocky Mountains via the Tail Dependence Regression Framework With a Gibbs Posterior Inference Approach","authors":"Brook T. Russell, Yiren Ding, Whitney K. Huang, Jamie L. Dyer","doi":"10.1002/env.2890","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2890","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The use of satellite precipitation products (SPP) allows for precipitation information to be collected nearly globally, but questions remain regarding their ability to reproduce extreme precipitation over mountainous terrain. In this work, we assess the ability of the precipitation estimation from remotely sensed information using artificial neural networks-climate data record (PERSIANN-CDR) to capture daily precipitation extremes by comparing PERSIANN-CDR with corresponding station data in the summer at remote locations in the northern US Rocky Mountains of Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana. The assessment utilizes the regular variation framework from extreme value theory and consists of two parts: (1) evaluating the extent to which PERSIANN-CDR can capture precipitation extremes through inference on an asymptotic dependence parameter, concluding that the level of asymptotic dependence is moderate throughout the region; (2) developing a tail dependence regression modeling framework and a Gibbs posterior approach for inference to investigate the degree to which elevation and topographic heterogeneity impact the level of asymptotic dependence, finding that the inclusion of a set of meteorological covariates, when combined with the PERSIANN-CDR output, yields an increased level of asymptotic dependence with station data.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2890","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143253269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EnvironmetricsPub Date : 2024-11-05DOI: 10.1002/env.2884
Emrah Gecili, Cole Brokamp, Özgür Asar, Eleni-Rosalina Andrinopoulou, John J. Brewington, Rhonda D. Szczesniak
{"title":"Spike and Slab Regression for Nonstationary Gaussian Linear Mixed Effects Modeling of Rapid Disease Progression","authors":"Emrah Gecili, Cole Brokamp, Özgür Asar, Eleni-Rosalina Andrinopoulou, John J. Brewington, Rhonda D. Szczesniak","doi":"10.1002/env.2884","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2884","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Select measures of social and environmental determinants of health (referred to as “geomarkers”), predict rapid lung function decline in cystic fibrosis (CF), defined as a prolonged decline relative to patient and/or center-level norms. The extent to which hyper-localization, defined as increasing the spatiotemporal precision of geomarkers, aids in prediction of rapid lung decline remains unclear. Linear mixed effects (LME) models with specialized covariance functions have been used for predicting rapid lung function decline, but there are few options to properly incorporate spatial correlation into the covariance functions while inducing simultaneous variable selection. Our innovative Bayesian model uses a spike and slab prior for simultaneous variable selection and offers additional advantages when coupled with nonstationary Gaussian LME modeling. This model also incorporates spatial correlation through an additional random effect term that accounts for spatial correlation based on ZIP code distances. We validated the model with simulations and applied it to real CF data from a Midwestern CF Center. We demonstrate how a combination of demographic, clinical, and geomarker variables can be selected as optimal predictors using Bayesian false discovery rate controlling rule. Our results indicate that incorporating spatiotemporal effects and geomarkers into this novel Bayesian stochastic LME model enhances the dynamic prediction of rapid CF disease progression.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143112253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EnvironmetricsPub Date : 2024-10-30DOI: 10.1002/env.2885
L. Altieri, D. Cocchi, M. Ventrucci
{"title":"Entropy-Based Assessment of Biodiversity, With Application to Ants' Nests Data","authors":"L. Altieri, D. Cocchi, M. Ventrucci","doi":"10.1002/env.2885","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2885","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The present work takes an innovative point of view in the study of a marked point pattern dataset of two ants' species, over an irregular region with a spatial covariate. The approach, based on entropy measures, brings new insights to the interpretation of the behavior of such ants' nesting habits, which can be exploited in the general area of biodiversity evaluation. We make proper use of descriptive entropy measures and inferential approaches, performing a comparative study of their uncertainty and interpretability in the context of biodiversity. For the first time in the study of these ants' nests data, all the available information is fully exploited, and interpretation guidelines are given for assessing both the observed and the latent biodiversity of the system, with a simultaneous consideration of spatial structures, covariate and interpoint interaction effects. Computations are supported by the new release of our R package SpatEntropy.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2885","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143121058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EnvironmetricsPub Date : 2024-10-27DOI: 10.1002/env.2882
Jax Li, Brook T. Russell, Whitney K. Huang, William C. Porter
{"title":"Modeling nonstationary surface-level ozone extremes through the lens of US air quality standards: A Bayesian hierarchical approach","authors":"Jax Li, Brook T. Russell, Whitney K. Huang, William C. Porter","doi":"10.1002/env.2882","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2882","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Surface-level ozone (O<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mo> </mo>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>3</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {}_3 $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>) is a harmful air pollutant whose effects may be more deleterious when at its most extreme levels. Current US air quality standards are written in terms of the 3-year average of the 4th highest annual daily maximum 8-h O<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mo> </mo>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>3</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {}_3 $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> values; therefore, developing approaches based on extreme value theory may be useful. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical approach, where the <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>r</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ r $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>-largest order statistics are parametrized by the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, while a Gaussian process is employed to characterize how the GEV parameters depend on the O<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mo> </mo>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>3</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {}_3 $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> precursors, namely nitrous oxides (NO<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mo> </mo>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>x</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {}_x $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The fitted model is then used to characterize the upper tail of the distribution of O<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mo> </mo>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>3</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {}_3 $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> and estimate O<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mo> </mo>\u0000 ","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2882","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143253494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EnvironmetricsPub Date : 2024-10-22DOI: 10.1002/env.2883
Svetlana Saarela, Sean P. Healey, Zhiqiang Yang, Bjørn-Eirik Roald, Paul L. Patterson, Terje Gobakken, Erik Næsset, Zhengyang Hou, Ronald E. McRoberts, Göran Ståhl
{"title":"A Separable Bootstrap Variance Estimation Algorithm for Hierarchical Model-Based Inference of Forest Aboveground Biomass Using Data From NASA's GEDI and Landsat Missions","authors":"Svetlana Saarela, Sean P. Healey, Zhiqiang Yang, Bjørn-Eirik Roald, Paul L. Patterson, Terje Gobakken, Erik Næsset, Zhengyang Hou, Ronald E. McRoberts, Göran Ståhl","doi":"10.1002/env.2883","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2883","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The hierarchical model-based (HMB) statistical method is currently applied in connection with NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission for assessing forest aboveground biomass (AGB) in areas lacking a sufficiently large number of GEDI footprints for employing hybrid inference. This study focuses on variance estimation using a bootstrap procedure that separates the computations into parts, thus considerably reducing the computational time required and making bootstrapping a viable option in this context. The procedure we propose uses a theoretical decomposition of the HMB variance into two parts. Through this decomposition, each variance component can be estimated separately and simultaneously. For demonstrating the proposed procedure, we applied a square-root-transformed ordinary least squares (OLS) model, and parametric bootstrapping, in the first modeling step of HMB. In the second step, we applied a random forest model and pairwise bootstrapping. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the proposed variance estimator is approximately unbiased. The study was performed on an artificial copula-generated population that mimics forest conditions in Oregon, USA, using a dataset comprising AGB, GEDI, and Landsat variables.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2883","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143118329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EnvironmetricsPub Date : 2024-09-25DOI: 10.1002/env.2881
Georgia Lazoglou, Theo Economou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, Anna Tzyrkalli, George Zittis, Jos Lelieveld
{"title":"Bias correction of daily precipitation from climate models, using the Q-GAM method","authors":"Georgia Lazoglou, Theo Economou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, Anna Tzyrkalli, George Zittis, Jos Lelieveld","doi":"10.1002/env.2881","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2881","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate models are useful tools for analyzing historical and projecting future climate conditions. However, the model results tend to differ systematically from observations, particularly for parameters with complex spatial and temporal distributions such as precipitation. A combination of quantile mapping and generalized additive models (GAMs) is presented and proposed as a new method (Q-GAM) for the bias correction of daily precipitation. Q-GAM is demonstrated by using data from five European stations with different climate characteristics. For each station, the closest continental grid point of a EURO-CORDEX climate model was selected for bias correction. A bootstrapping experiment is presented with over 1000 repetitions of randomly splitting the historical period 1981 to 2005 into a calibration and evaluation period. The results for all stations reveal that Q-GAM is a straightforward, accurate and computationally efficient method for the bias correction of precipitation. In particular, the method improves the frequency of dry days and the total annual rainfall amount. This outcome is robust across stations with varying climate characteristics and also to the choice of calibration and evaluation periods. Similar results are also obtained for other precipitation characteristics such as the 0.9 and 0.95 quantiles.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2881","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EnvironmetricsPub Date : 2024-08-26DOI: 10.1002/env.2880
Michael L. Pennell, Matthew W. Wheeler, Scott S. Auerbach
{"title":"A hierarchical constrained density regression model for predicting cluster-level dose-response","authors":"Michael L. Pennell, Matthew W. Wheeler, Scott S. Auerbach","doi":"10.1002/env.2880","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2880","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With the advent of new alternative methods for rapid toxicity screening of chemicals comes the need for new statistical methodologies which appropriately synthesize the large amount of data collected. For example, transcriptomic assays can be used to assess the impact of a chemical on thousands of genes, but current approaches to analyzing the data treat each gene separately and do not allow sharing of information among genes within pathways. Furthermore, the methods employed are fully parametric and do not account for changes in distribution shape that may occur at high exposure levels. To address the limitations of these methods, we propose Constrained Logistic Density Regression (COLDER) to model expression data from different genes simultaneously. Under COLDER, the dose-response function for each gene is assigned a prior via a discrete logistic stick-breaking process (LSBP) whose weights depend on gene-level characteristics (e.g., pathway membership) and atoms consist of different dose-response functions subject to a shape constraint that ensures biological plausibility. The posterior distribution for the benchmark dose among genes within the same pathways can be estimated directly from the model, which is another advantage over current methods. The ability of COLDER to predict gene-level dose-response is evaluated in a simulation study and the method is illustrated with data from a National Toxicology Program study of Aflatoxin B1.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2880","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142218933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EnvironmetricsPub Date : 2024-08-20DOI: 10.1002/env.2877
Duccio Rocchini, Ludovico Chieffallo, Elisa Thouverai, Rossella D'Introno, Francesca Dagostin, Emma Donini, Giles Foody, Simon Garnier, Guilherme G. Mazzochini, Vitezslav Moudry, Bob Rudis, Petra Simova, Michele Torresani, Jakub Nowosad
{"title":"Under the mantra: ‘Make use of colorblind friendly graphs’","authors":"Duccio Rocchini, Ludovico Chieffallo, Elisa Thouverai, Rossella D'Introno, Francesca Dagostin, Emma Donini, Giles Foody, Simon Garnier, Guilherme G. Mazzochini, Vitezslav Moudry, Bob Rudis, Petra Simova, Michele Torresani, Jakub Nowosad","doi":"10.1002/env.2877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2877","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Colorblindness is a genetic condition that affects a person's ability to accurately perceive colors. Several papers still exist making use of rainbow colors palette to show output. In such cases, for colorblind people such graphs are meaningless. In this paper, we propose good practices and coding solutions developed in the R Free and Open Source Software to (i) simulate colorblindness, (ii) develop colorblind friendly color palettes and (iii) provide the tools for converting a noncolorblind friendly graph into a new image with improved colors.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2877","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142174254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}