{"title":"Spatial Correlation Robust Inference in Linear Regression and Panel Models","authors":"Ulrich K. Müller, M. Watson","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2127737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2127737","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We consider inference about a scalar coefficient in a linear regression with spatially correlated errors. Recent suggestions for more robust inference require stationarity of both regressors and dependent variables for their large sample validity. This rules out many empirically relevant applications, such as difference-in-difference designs. We develop a robustified version of the recently suggested SCPC method that addresses this challenge. We find that the method has good size properties in a wide range of Monte Carlo designs that are calibrated to real world applications, both in a pure cross sectional setting, but also for spatially correlated panel data. We provide numerically efficient methods for computing the associated spatial-correlation robust test statistics, critical values, and confidence intervals.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"41 1","pages":"1050 - 1064"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41738828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reconciling Trends in Male Earnings Volatility: Evidence from the SIPP Survey and Administrative Data","authors":"Michael Carr, R. Moffitt, E. Wiemers","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2126845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2126845","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As part of a set of papers using the same methods and sample selection criteria to estimate trends in male earnings volatility across survey and administrative datasets, we conduct a new investigation of male earnings volatility using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) survey and SIPP-linked administrative earnings data (SIPP GSF). We find that the level of volatility is higher in the administrative earnings histories in the SIPP GSF than in the SIPP survey but that the trends are similar. Between 1984 and 2012, volatility in the SIPP survey declines slightly while volatility in the SIPP GSF increases slightly. Including imputations due to unit nonresponse in the SIPP survey data increases both the level and upward trend in volatility and poses a challenge for estimating a consistent series in the SIPP survey data. Because the density of low earnings differs considerably across datasets, and volatility may vary across the earnings distribution, we also estimate trends in volatility where we hold the earnings distribution fixed across the two data sources. Differences in the underlying earnings distribution explain much of the difference in the level of and trends in volatility between the SIPP survey and SIPP GSF.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"41 1","pages":"26 - 32"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42061814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bryan S. Graham, Geert Ridder, Petra Thiemann, Gema Zamarro
{"title":"Teacher-to-classroom assignment and student achievement","authors":"Bryan S. Graham, Geert Ridder, Petra Thiemann, Gema Zamarro","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2126480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2126480","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>We study the effects of counterfactual teacher-to-classroom assignments on average student achievement in U.S. elementary and middle schools. We use the Measures of Effective Teaching (MET) experiment to semiparametrically identify the average reallocation effects (AREs) of such assignments. Our identification strategy exploits the random assignment of teachers to classrooms in MET schools. To account for non-compliance of some students and teachers to the random assignment, we develop and implement a semiparametric instrumental variables estimator. We find that changes in within-district teacher assignments could have appreciable effects on student achievement. Unlike policies that aim at changing the pool of teachers (e.g., teacher tenure policies or class-size reduction measures), alternative teacher-to-classroom assignments do not require that districts hire new teachers or lay off existing ones; they raise student achievement through a more efficient deployment of <i>existing</i> teachers.</p>","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141257305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Changepoint Detection in Heteroscedastic Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models","authors":"Lajos Horváth, Lorenzo Trapani","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2120485","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2120485","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We propose a family of CUSUM-based statistics to detect the presence of changepoints in the deterministic part of the autoregressive parameter in a Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) sequence. Our tests can be applied irrespective of whether the sequence is stationary or not, and no prior knowledge of stationarity or lack thereof is required. Similarly, our tests can be applied even when the error term and the stochastic part of the autoregressive coefficient are non iid, covering the cases of conditional volatility and shifts in the variance, again without requiring any prior knowledge as to the presence or type thereof. In order to ensure the ability to detect breaks at sample endpoints, we propose weighted CUSUM statistics, deriving the asymptotics for virtually all possible weighing schemes, including the standardized CUSUM process (for which we derive a Darling-Erdős theorem) and even heavier weights (so-called Rényi statistics). Simulations show that our procedures work very well in finite samples. We complement our theory with an application to several financial time series.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"41 1","pages":"1300 - 1314"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44037267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shaobo Li, Shaonan Tian, Yan Yu, Xiaorui Zhu, Heng Lian
{"title":"Corporate Probability of Default: A Single-Index Hazard Model Approach","authors":"Shaobo Li, Shaonan Tian, Yan Yu, Xiaorui Zhu, Heng Lian","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2120484","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2120484","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Corporate probability of default (PD) prediction is vitally important for risk management and asset pricing. In search of accurate PD prediction, we propose a flexible yet easy-to-interpret default-prediction single-index hazard model (DSI). By applying it to a comprehensive U.S. corporate bankruptcy database we constructed, we discover an interesting V-shaped relationship, indicating a violation of the common linear hazard specification. Most importantly, the single-index hazard model passes the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit calibration test while neither does a state-of-the-art linear hazard model in finance nor a parametric class of Box-Cox transformation survival models. In an economic value analysis, we find that this may translate to as much as three times of profit compared to the linear hazard model. In model estimation, we adopt a penalized-spline approximation for the unknown function and propose an efficient algorithm. With a diverging number of spline knots, we establish consistency and asymptotic theories for the penalized-spline likelihood estimators. Furthermore, we reexamine the distress risk anomaly, that is, higher financially distressed stocks deliver anomalously lower excess returns. Based on the PDs from the proposed single-index hazard model, we find that the distress risk anomaly has weakened or even disappeared during the extended period.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"41 1","pages":"1288 - 1299"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43809645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Generalized Covariance Estimator","authors":"C. Gouriéroux, J. Jasiak","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2120486","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2120486","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We consider a class of semi-parametric dynamic models with iid errors, including the nonlinear mixed causal-noncausal Vector Autoregressive (VAR), Double-Autoregressive (DAR) and stochastic volatility models. To estimate the parameters characterizing the (nonlinear) serial dependence, we introduce a generic Generalized Covariance (GCov) estimator, which minimizes a residual-based multivariate portmanteau statistic. In comparison to the standard methods of moments, the GCov estimator has an interpretable objective function, circumvents the inversion of high-dimensional matrices, and achieves semi-parametric efficiency in one step. We derive the asymptotic properties of the GCov estimator and show its semi-parametric efficiency. We also prove that the associated residual-based portmanteau statistic is asymptotically chi-square distributed. The finite sample performance of the GCov estimator is illustrated in a simulation study. The estimator is then applied to a dynamic model of commodity futures.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"41 1","pages":"1315 - 1327"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45785099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lajos Horváth, Zhenya Liu, Gregory Rice, Shixuan Wang, Yaosong Zhan
{"title":"Testing Stability in Functional Event Observations with an Application to IPO Performance","authors":"Lajos Horváth, Zhenya Liu, Gregory Rice, Shixuan Wang, Yaosong Zhan","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2118127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2118127","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Many sequentially observed functional data objects are available only at the times of certain events. For example, the trajectory of stock prices of companies after their initial public offering (IPO) can be observed when the offering occurs, and the resulting data may be affected by changing circumstances. It is of interest to investigate whether the mean behavior of such functions is stable over time, and if not, to estimate the times at which apparent changes occur. Since the frequency of events may fluctuates over time, we propose a change point analysis that has two steps. In the first step, we segment the series into segments in which the frequency of events is approximately homogeneous using a new binary segmentation procedure for event frequencies. After adjusting the observed curves in each segment based on the frequency of events, we proceed in the second step by developing a method to test for and estimate change points in the mean of the observed functional data objects. We establish the consistency and asymptotic distribution of the change point detector and estimator in both steps, and study their performance using Monte Carlo simulations. An application to IPO performance data illustrates the proposed methods.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"41 1","pages":"1262 - 1273"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43304873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Scalable Frequentist Model Averaging Method","authors":"Rong Zhu, Haiying Wang, Xinyu Zhang, Hua Liang","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2116442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2116442","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Frequentist model averaging is an effective technique to handle model uncertainty. However, calculation of the weights for averaging is extremely difficult, if not impossible, even when the dimension of the predictor vector, p, is moderate, because we may have candidate models. The exponential size of the candidate model set makes it difficult to estimate all candidate models, and brings additional numeric errors when calculating the weights. This article proposes a scalable frequentist model averaging method, which is statistically and computationally efficient, to overcome this problem by transforming the original model using the singular value decomposition. The method enables us to find the optimal weights by considering at most p candidate models. We prove that the minimum loss of the scalable model averaging estimator is asymptotically equal to that of the traditional model averaging estimator. We apply the Mallows and Jackknife criteria to the scalable model averaging estimator and prove that they are asymptotically optimal estimators. We further extend the method to the high-dimensional case (i.e., ). Numerical studies illustrate the superiority of the proposed method in terms of both statistical efficiency and computational cost.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"41 1","pages":"1228 - 1237"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44128430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via preselection and shrinkage","authors":"Laurent Ferrara, Anna Simoni","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2116025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2116025","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Alternative data sets are widely used for macroeconomic nowcasting together with machine learning–based tools. The latter are often applied without a complete picture of their theoretical nowcasting properties. Against this background, this paper proposes a theoretically grounded nowcasting methodology that allows researchers to incorporate alternative Google Search Data (GSD) among the predictors and that combines targeted preselection, Ridge regularization, and Generalized Cross Validation. Breaking with most existing literature, which focuses on asymptotic in-sample theoretical properties, we establish the theoretical out-of-sample properties of our methodology and support them by Monte-Carlo simulations. We apply our methodology to GSD to nowcast GDP growth rate of several countries during various economic periods. Our empirical findings support the idea that GSD tend to increase nowcasting accuracy, even after controlling for official variables, but that the gain differs between periods of recessions and of macroeconomic stability.</p>","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141257379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Caio Almeida, Gustavo Freire, Rafael Azevedo, Kym Ardison
{"title":"Nonparametric Option Pricing with Generalized Entropic Estimators*","authors":"Caio Almeida, Gustavo Freire, Rafael Azevedo, Kym Ardison","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2115499","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2115499","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>We propose a family of nonparametric estimators for an option price that require only the use of underlying return data, but can also easily incorporate information from observed option prices. Each estimator comes from a risk-neutral measure minimizing generalized entropy according to a different Cressie-Read discrepancy. We apply our method to price S&P 500 options and the cross-section of individual equity options, using distinct amounts of option data in the estimation. Estimators incorporating mild nonlinearities produce optimal pricing accuracy within the Cressie-Read family and outperform several benchmarks such as Black-Scholes and different GARCH option pricing models. Overall, we provide a powerful option pricing technique suitable for scenarios of limited option data availability.</p>","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141257398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}