{"title":"Getting the ROC into Sync","authors":"Liu Yang, Kajal Lahiri, Adrian Pagan","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2154778","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2154778","url":null,"abstract":"Judging the conformity of binary events in macroeconomics and finance has often been done with indices that measure synchronization. In recent years, the use of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve has become popular for this task. This article shows that the ROC and synchronization approaches are closely related, and each can be derived from a decision-making framework. Furthermore, the resulting global measures of the degree of conformity can be identified and estimated using the standard method of moments estimators. The impact of serial dependence in the underlying series upon inferences can therefore be allowed for. Such serial correlation is common in macroeconomic and financial data.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135555463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jialu Li, Wan Zhang, Peiyao Wang, Qizhai Li, Kai Zhang, Yufeng Liu
{"title":"Nonparametric prediction distribution from resolution-wise regression with heterogeneous data.","authors":"Jialu Li, Wan Zhang, Peiyao Wang, Qizhai Li, Kai Zhang, Yufeng Liu","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2115498","DOIUrl":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2115498","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Modeling and inference for heterogeneous data have gained great interest recently due to rapid developments in personalized marketing. Most existing regression approaches are based on the conditional mean and may require additional cluster information to accommodate data heterogeneity. In this paper, we propose a novel nonparametric resolution-wise regression procedure to provide an estimated distribution of the response instead of one single value. We achieve this by decomposing the information of the response and the predictors into resolutions and patterns respectively based on marginal binary expansions. The relationships between resolutions and patterns are modeled by penalized logistic regressions. Combining the resolution-wise prediction, we deliver a histogram of the conditional response to approximate the distribution. Moreover, we show a sure independence screening property and the consistency of the proposed method for growing dimensions. Simulations and a real estate valuation dataset further illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.</p>","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10691808/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47877556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Male Earnings Volatility in LEHD before, during, and after the Great Recession.","authors":"Kevin L McKinney, John M Abowd","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2126479","DOIUrl":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2126479","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper is part of a coordinated collection of papers on prime-age male earnings volatility. Each paper produces a similar set of statistics for the same reference population using a different primary data source. Our primary data source is the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) infrastructure files. Using LEHD data from 1998 to 2016, we create a well-defined population frame to facilitate accurate estimation of temporal changes comparable to designed longitudinal samples of people. We show that earnings volatility, excluding increases during recessions, has declined over the analysis period, a finding robust to various sensitivity analyses.</p>","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9802632/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10817436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation for High-Dimensional Compositional Data with Application to Sales Data Analysis.","authors":"Danning Li, Arun Srinivasan, Qian Chen, Lingzhou Xue","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2106990","DOIUrl":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2106990","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Compositional data arises in a wide variety of research areas when some form of standardization and composition is necessary. Estimating covariance matrices is of fundamental importance for high-dimensional compositional data analysis. However, existing methods require the restrictive Gaussian or sub-Gaussian assumption, which may not hold in practice. We propose a robust composition adjusted thresholding covariance procedure based on Huber-type M-estimation to estimate the sparse covariance structure of high-dimensional compositional data. We introduce a cross-validation procedure to choose the tuning parameters of the proposed method. Theoretically, by assuming a bounded fourth moment condition, we obtain the rates of convergence and signal recovery property for the proposed method and provide the theoretical guarantees for the cross-validation procedure under the high-dimensional setting. Numerically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in simulation studies and also a real application to sales data analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10730115/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43434903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Time-Varying Network for Cryptocurrencies","authors":"Li Guo, Wolfgang Karl Härdle, Yubo Tao","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2146695","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2146695","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a time-varying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the evolution of return cross-predictability and technological similarities. We develop a dynamic covariate-assisted spectral clustering method to consistently estimate the latent community structure of cryptocurrencies network that accounts for both sets of information. We demonstrate that investors can achieve better risk diversification by investing in cryptocurrencies from different communities. A cross-sectional portfolio that implements an inter-crypto momentum trading strategy earns a 1.08% daily return. By dissecting the portfolio returns on behavioral factors, we confirm that our results are not driven by behavioral mechanisms.</p>","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141257303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"From Conditional Quantile Regression to Marginal Quantile Estimation with Applications to Missing Data and Causal Inference","authors":"Huijuan Ma, J. Qin, Yong Zhou","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2140158","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2140158","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It is well known that information on the conditional distribution of an outcome variable given covariates can be used to obtain an enhanced estimate of the marginal outcome distribution. This can be done easily by integrating out the marginal covariate distribution from the conditional outcome distribution. However, to date, no analogy has been established between marginal quantile and conditional quantile regression. This article provides a link between them. We propose two novel marginal quantile and marginal mean estimation approaches through conditional quantile regression when some of the outcomes are missing at random. The first of these approaches is free from the need to choose a propensity score. The second is double robust to model misspecification: it is consistent if either the conditional quantile regression model is correctly specified or the missing mechanism of outcome is correctly specified. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the two estimators are established, and the second double robust estimator achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. Extensive simulation studies are performed to demonstrate the utility of the proposed approaches. An application to causal inference is introduced. For illustration, we apply the proposed methods to a job training program dataset.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42327144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Spectral Estimation of Large Stochastic Blockmodels with Discrete Nodal Covariates","authors":"A. Mele, Lingxin Hao, J. Cape, C. Priebe","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2139709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2139709","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In many applications of network analysis, it is important to distinguish between observed and unobserved factors affecting network structure. We show that a network model with discrete unobserved link heterogeneity and binary (or discrete) covariates corresponds to a stochastic blockmodel (SBM). We develop a spectral estimator for the effect of covariates on link probabilities, exploiting the correspondence of SBMs and generalized random dot product graphs (GRDPG). We show that computing our estimator is much faster than standard variational expectation–maximization algorithms and scales well for large networks. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that the estimator performs well under different data generating processes. Our application to Facebook data shows evidence of homophily in gender, role and campus-residence, while allowing us to discover unobserved communities. Finally, we establish asymptotic normality of our estimators.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42485242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Identifying Structural Vector Autoregression via Leptokurtic Economic Shocks","authors":"Markku Lanne, Keyan Liu, Jani Luoto","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2134872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2134872","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We revisit the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of the non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. It is shown that in the n-dimensional SVAR model, global and local identification of the contemporaneous impact matrix is achieved with as few as suitably selected moment conditions, when at least n – 1 of the structural errors are all leptokurtic (or platykurtic). We also relax the potentially problematic assumption of mutually independent structural errors in part of the previous literature to the requirement that the errors be mutually uncorrelated. Moreover, we assume the error term to be only serially uncorrelated, not independent in time, which allows for univariate conditional heteroscedasticity in its components. A small simulation experiment highlights the good properties of the estimator and the proposed moment selection procedure. The use of the methods is illustrated by means of an empirical application to the effect of a tax increase on U.S. gasoline consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44534675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Narrative Restrictions and Proxies.","authors":"Raffaella Giacomini, Toru Kitagawa, Matthew Read","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2115496","DOIUrl":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2115496","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We compare two approaches to using information about the signs of structural shocks at specific dates within a structural vector autoregression (SVAR): imposing \"narrative restrictions\" (NR) on the shock signs in an otherwise set-identified SVAR; and casting the information about the shock signs as a discrete-valued \"narrative proxy\" (NP) to point-identify the impulse responses. The NP is likely to be \"weak\" given that the sign of the shock is typically known in a small number of periods, in which case the weak-proxy robust confidence intervals in Montiel Olea, Stock, and Watson are the natural approach to conducting inference. However, we show both theoretically and via Monte Carlo simulations that these confidence intervals have distorted coverage-which may be higher or lower than the nominal level-unless the sign of the shock is known in a large number of periods. Regarding the NR approach, we show that the prior-robust Bayesian credible intervals from Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read deliver coverage exceeding the nominal level, but which converges toward the nominal level as the number of NR increases.</p>","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/16/1b/UBES_40_2115496.PMC9555284.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33517172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Narrative Restrictions and Proxies: Rejoinder","authors":"R. Giacomini, T. Kitagawa, Matthew Read","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2115710","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2115710","url":null,"abstract":"This rejoinder addresses the discussants’ specific comments on the article “Narrative Restrictions and Proxies” (Section 2) as well as more general comments on the approach to robust Bayesian inference that we have proposed in previous work (Section 1).","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47664787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}