{"title":"A Novel $δ$-SBM-OPA Approach for Policy-Driven Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency under Uncertainty in the Chinese Industrial Sector","authors":"Shutian Cui, Renlong Wang, Xiaoyan Li","doi":"arxiv-2408.11600","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.11600","url":null,"abstract":"Regional differences in carbon emission efficiency arise from disparities in\u0000resource distribution, industrial structure, and development level, which are\u0000often influenced by government policy preferences. However, currently, most\u0000studies fail to consider the impact of government policy preferences and data\u0000uncertainty on carbon emission efficiency. To address the above limitations,\u0000this study proposes a hybrid model based on $delta$-slack-based model\u0000($delta$-SBM) and ordinal priority approach (OPA) for measuring carbon\u0000emission efficiency driven by government policy preferences under data\u0000uncertainty. The proposed $delta$-SBM-OPA model incorporates constraints on\u0000the importance of input and output variables under different policy preference\u0000scenarios. It then develops the efficiency optimization model with Farrell\u0000frontiers and efficiency tapes to deal with the data uncertainty in input and\u0000output variables. This study demonstrates the proposed model by analyzing\u0000industrial carbon emission efficiency of Chinese provinces in 2021. It examines\u0000the carbon emission efficiency and corresponding clustering results of\u0000provinces under three types of policies: economic priority, environmental\u0000priority, and technological priority, with varying priority preferences. The\u0000results indicate that the carbon emission efficiency of the 30 provinces can\u0000mainly be categorized into technology-driven, development-balanced, and\u0000transition-potential types, with most provinces achieving optimal efficiency\u0000under the technology-dominant preferences across all policy scenarios.\u0000Ultimately, this study suggests a tailored roadmap and crucial initiatives for\u0000different provinces to progressively and systematically work towards achieving\u0000the low carbon goal.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Deviations from the Nash equilibrium and emergence of tacit collusion in a two-player optimal execution game with reinforcement learning","authors":"Fabrizio Lillo, Andrea Macrì","doi":"arxiv-2408.11773","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.11773","url":null,"abstract":"The use of reinforcement learning algorithms in financial trading is becoming\u0000increasingly prevalent. However, the autonomous nature of these algorithms can\u0000lead to unexpected outcomes that deviate from traditional game-theoretical\u0000predictions and may even destabilize markets. In this study, we examine a\u0000scenario in which two autonomous agents, modeled with Double Deep Q-Learning,\u0000learn to liquidate the same asset optimally in the presence of market impact,\u0000using the Almgren-Chriss (2000) framework. Our results show that the strategies\u0000learned by the agents deviate significantly from the Nash equilibrium of the\u0000corresponding market impact game. Notably, the learned strategies exhibit tacit\u0000collusion, closely aligning with the Pareto-optimal solution. We further\u0000explore how different levels of market volatility influence the agents'\u0000performance and the equilibria they discover, including scenarios where\u0000volatility differs between the training and testing phases.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"143 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Theory of Recommendations","authors":"Jean-Michel Benkert, Armin Schmutzler","doi":"arxiv-2408.11362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.11362","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the value of recommendations for disseminating\u0000economic information, with a focus on frictions resulting from preference\u0000heterogeneity. We consider Bayesian expected-payoff maximizers who receive\u0000non-strategic recommendations by other consumers. The paper provides conditions\u0000under which different consumer types accept these recommendations. Moreover, we\u0000assess the overall value of a recommendation system and the determinants of\u0000that value. Our analysis highlights the importance of disentangling objective\u0000information from subjective preferences when designing value-maximizing\u0000recommendation systems.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rooftop and Community Solar Adoption with Income Heterogeneity","authors":"Swapnil Rayal, Apurva Jain, Matthew Lorig","doi":"arxiv-2408.11970","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.11970","url":null,"abstract":"Each household in a population characterized by income heterogeneity faces\u0000random demand for electricity and decides if and when it should adopt a solar\u0000product, rooftop solar or community solar. A central planner, aiming to meet an\u0000adoption level target within a set time, offers net metering and subsidy on\u0000solar products and minimizes its total cost. Our focus is on analyzing the\u0000interactions of three new features we add to the literature: income diversity,\u0000availability of community solar, and consideration of adoption timing.\u0000{Methodology and results:} We develop a bilevel optimization formulation to\u0000derive the optimal subsidy policy. The upper level (planner's) problem is a\u0000constrained non-linear optimization model in which the planner aims to minimize\u0000the average subsidy cost. The lower level (household's) problem is an optimal\u0000stopping formulation, which captures the adoption decisions of the households.\u0000We derive a closed-form expression for the distribution of optimal adoption\u0000time of households for a given subsidy policy. We show that the planner's\u0000problem is convex in the case of homogeneous subsidy for the two products.\u0000{Managerial implications:} Our results underscore the importance for planners\u0000to consider three factors - adoption level target, time target, and subsidy\u0000budget - simultaneously as they work in tandem to influence the adoption\u0000outcome. The planners must also consider the inclusion of community solar in\u0000their plans because, as we show, community and rooftop solar attract households\u0000from different sides of the income spectrum. In the presence of income\u0000inequality, the availability of community makes it easier to meet solar\u0000adoption targets.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dimitar Kitanovski, Igor Mishkovski, Viktor Stojkoski, Miroslav Mirchev
{"title":"Network-based diversification of stock and cryptocurrency portfolios","authors":"Dimitar Kitanovski, Igor Mishkovski, Viktor Stojkoski, Miroslav Mirchev","doi":"arxiv-2408.11739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.11739","url":null,"abstract":"Maintaining a balance between returns and volatility is a common strategy for\u0000portfolio diversification, whether investing in traditional equities or digital\u0000assets like cryptocurrencies. One approach for diversification is the\u0000application of community detection or clustering, using a network representing\u0000the relationships between assets. We examine two network representations, one\u0000based on a standard distance matrix based on correlation, and another based on\u0000mutual information. The Louvain and Affinity propagation algorithms were\u0000employed for finding the network communities (clusters) based on annual data.\u0000Furthermore, we examine building assets' co-occurrence networks, where\u0000communities are detected for each month throughout a whole year and then the\u0000links represent how often assets belong to the same community. Portfolios are\u0000then constructed by selecting several assets from each community based on local\u0000properties (degree centrality), global properties (closeness centrality), or\u0000explained variance (Principal component analysis), with three value ranges\u0000(max, med, min), calculated on a maximal spanning tree or a fully connected\u0000community sub-graph. We explored these various strategies on data from the S&P\u0000500 and the Top 203 cryptocurrencies with a market cap above 2M USD in the\u0000period from Jan 2019 to Sep 2022. Moreover, we study into more details the\u0000periods of the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and the start of the war in\u0000Ukraine. The results confirm some of the previous findings already known for\u0000traditional stock markets and provide some further insights, while they reveal\u0000an opposing trend in the crypto-assets market.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How Small is Big Enough? Open Labeled Datasets and the Development of Deep Learning","authors":"Daniel Souza, Aldo Geuna, Jeff Rodríguez","doi":"arxiv-2408.10359","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.10359","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the emergence of Deep Learning as a technoscientific field,\u0000emphasizing the role of open labeled datasets. Through qualitative and\u0000quantitative analyses, we evaluate the role of datasets like CIFAR-10 in\u0000advancing computer vision and object recognition, which are central to the Deep\u0000Learning revolution. Our findings highlight CIFAR-10's crucial role and\u0000enduring influence on the field, as well as its importance in teaching ML\u0000techniques. Results also indicate that dataset characteristics such as size,\u0000number of instances, and number of categories, were key factors. Econometric\u0000analysis confirms that CIFAR-10, a small-but-sufficiently-large open dataset,\u0000played a significant and lasting role in technological advancements and had a\u0000major function in the development of the early scientific literature as shown\u0000by citation metrics.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tax Credits and Household Behavior: The Roles of Myopic Decision-Making and Liquidity in a Simulated Economy","authors":"Jialin Dong, Kshama Dwarakanath, Svitlana Vyetrenko","doi":"arxiv-2408.10391","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.10391","url":null,"abstract":"There has been a growing interest in multi-agent simulators in the domain of\u0000economic modeling. However, contemporary research often involves developing\u0000reinforcement learning (RL) based models that focus solely on a single type of\u0000agents, such as households, firms, or the government. Such an approach\u0000overlooks the adaptation of interacting agents thereby failing to capture the\u0000complexity of real-world economic systems. In this work, we consider a\u0000multi-agent simulator comprised of RL agents of numerous types, including\u0000heterogeneous households, firm, central bank and government. In particular, we\u0000focus on the crucial role of the government in distributing tax credits to\u0000households. We conduct two broad categories of comprehensive experiments\u0000dealing with the impact of tax credits on 1) households with varied degrees of\u0000myopia (short-sightedness in spending and saving decisions), and 2) households\u0000with diverse liquidity profiles. The first category of experiments examines the\u0000impact of the frequency of tax credits (e.g. annual vs quarterly) on\u0000consumption patterns of myopic households. The second category of experiments\u0000focuses on the impact of varying tax credit distribution strategies on\u0000households with differing liquidities. We validate our simulation model by\u0000reproducing trends observed in real households upon receipt of unforeseen,\u0000uniform tax credits, as documented in a JPMorgan Chase report. Based on the\u0000results of the latter, we propose an innovative tax credit distribution\u0000strategy for the government to reduce inequality among households. We\u0000demonstrate the efficacy of this strategy in improving social welfare in our\u0000simulation results.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Economic Analysis of the Common Pool Method through the HARA Utility Functions","authors":"Mu Lin, Di Zhang, Ben Chen, Hang Zheng","doi":"arxiv-2408.05194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.05194","url":null,"abstract":"Water market is a contemporary marketplace for water trading and is deemed to\u0000one of the most efficient instruments to improve the social welfare. In modern\u0000water markets, the two widely used trading systems are an improved pair-wise\u0000trading, and a 'smart market' or common pool method. In comparison with the\u0000economic model, this paper constructs a conceptual mathematic model through the\u0000HARA utility functions. Mirroring the concepts such as Nash Equilibrium, Pareto\u0000optimal and stable matching in economy, three significant propositions are\u0000acquired which illustrate the advantages of the common pool method compared\u0000with the improved pair-wise trading.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"136 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Democratic Favor Channel","authors":"Ziho Park","doi":"arxiv-2408.05059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.05059","url":null,"abstract":"A large body of literature in economics and political science examines the\u0000impact of democracy and political freedoms on various outcomes using\u0000cross-country comparisons. This paper explores the possibility that any\u0000positive impact of democracy observed in these studies might be attributed to\u0000powerful democratic nations, their allies, and international organizations\u0000treating democracies more favorably than nondemocracies, a concept I refer to\u0000as democratic favor channel. Firstly, after I control for being targeted by\u0000sanctions from G7 or the United Nations and having military confrontations and\u0000cooperation with the West, most of the positive effects of democracy on growth\u0000in cross-country panel regressions become insignificant or negatively\u0000significant. Secondly, using the same empirical specification as this\u0000literature for demonstrating intermediating forces, I show that getting\u0000sanctioned, militarily attacked, and not having defense cooperation with the\u0000West are plausible channels through which democracy causes growth. Lastly, in\u0000the pre-Soviet-collapse period, which coincides with the time when democracy\u0000promotion was less often used as a justification for sanctions, the impact of\u0000democracy on GDP per capita is already weak or negative without any additional\u0000controls, and it becomes further negative once democratic favor is controlled.\u0000These findings support the democratic favor channel and challenge the idea that\u0000the institutional qualities of democracy per se lead to desirable outcomes. The\u0000critique provided in this paper applies to the broader comparative institutions\u0000literature in social sciences and political philosophy.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Erik-Benjamin Börschlein, Mario Bossler, Martin Popp
{"title":"Scarce Workers, High Wages?","authors":"Erik-Benjamin Börschlein, Mario Bossler, Martin Popp","doi":"arxiv-2408.04508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.04508","url":null,"abstract":"Labor market tightness tremendously increased in Germany between 2012 and\u00002022. We analyze the effect of tightness on wages by combining social security\u0000data with unusually rich information on vacancies and job seekers. Instrumental\u0000variable regressions reveal positive elasticities between 0.004 and 0.011,\u0000implying that higher tightness explains between 7 and 19 percent of the real\u0000wage increase. We report greater elasticities for new hires, high-skilled\u0000workers, the Eastern German labor market, and the service sector. In\u0000particular, tightness raised wages at the bottom of the wage distribution,\u0000contributing to the decline in wage inequality over the last decade.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}