基于网络的股票和加密货币投资组合多样化

Dimitar Kitanovski, Igor Mishkovski, Viktor Stojkoski, Miroslav Mirchev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

无论是投资传统股票还是加密货币等数字资产,在收益和波动性之间保持平衡是投资组合多样化的常见策略。分散投资的一种方法是利用代表资产间关系的网络进行群体检测或聚类。我们研究了两种网络表示方法,一种是基于相关性的标准距离矩阵,另一种是基于相互信息。此外,我们还研究了建筑资产的共现网络,在该网络中,全年每个月都会检测到社区,然后链接代表资产属于同一社区的频率。然后,根据局部属性(度中心性)、全局属性(亲近中心性)和解释方差(主成分分析),从每个社区中选择若干资产,构建投资组合,三种值范围(最大值、中值、最小值)根据最大生成树或全连接社区子图计算。我们在 S&P500 和 2019 年 1 月至 2022 年 9 月期间市值超过 200 万美元的前 203 种加密货币的数据上探索了这些不同的策略。此外,我们还更详细地研究了 COVID-19 爆发初期和乌克兰战争爆发初期的数据。研究结果证实了之前对传统股票市场的一些发现,并提供了一些进一步的见解,同时也揭示了加密资产市场的相反趋势。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Network-based diversification of stock and cryptocurrency portfolios
Maintaining a balance between returns and volatility is a common strategy for portfolio diversification, whether investing in traditional equities or digital assets like cryptocurrencies. One approach for diversification is the application of community detection or clustering, using a network representing the relationships between assets. We examine two network representations, one based on a standard distance matrix based on correlation, and another based on mutual information. The Louvain and Affinity propagation algorithms were employed for finding the network communities (clusters) based on annual data. Furthermore, we examine building assets' co-occurrence networks, where communities are detected for each month throughout a whole year and then the links represent how often assets belong to the same community. Portfolios are then constructed by selecting several assets from each community based on local properties (degree centrality), global properties (closeness centrality), or explained variance (Principal component analysis), with three value ranges (max, med, min), calculated on a maximal spanning tree or a fully connected community sub-graph. We explored these various strategies on data from the S\&P 500 and the Top 203 cryptocurrencies with a market cap above 2M USD in the period from Jan 2019 to Sep 2022. Moreover, we study into more details the periods of the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and the start of the war in Ukraine. The results confirm some of the previous findings already known for traditional stock markets and provide some further insights, while they reveal an opposing trend in the crypto-assets market.
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