arXiv - STAT - Applications最新文献_第7页

Real-time modelling of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England 2020-2023: a challenging data integration 2020-2023 年英格兰 SARS-CoV-2 大流行的实时建模：具有挑战性的数据整合

arXiv - STAT - Applications Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: arxiv-2408.04178

Paul J Birrell, Joshua Blake, Joel Kandiah, Angelos Alexopoulos, Edwin van Leeuwen, Koen Pouwels, Sanmitra Ghosh, Colin Starr, Ann Sarah Walker, Thomas A House, Nigel Gay, Thomas Finnie, Nick Gent, André Charlett, Daniela De Angelis

{"title":"Real-time modelling of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England 2020-2023: a challenging data integration","authors":"Paul J Birrell, Joshua Blake, Joel Kandiah, Angelos Alexopoulos, Edwin van Leeuwen, Koen Pouwels, Sanmitra Ghosh, Colin Starr, Ann Sarah Walker, Thomas A House, Nigel Gay, Thomas Finnie, Nick Gent, André Charlett, Daniela De Angelis","doi":"arxiv-2408.04178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.04178","url":null,"abstract":"A central pillar of the UK's response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was the\u0000provision of up-to-the moment nowcasts and short term projections to monitor\u0000current trends in transmission and associated healthcare burden. Here we\u0000present a detailed deconstruction of one of the 'real-time' models that was key\u0000contributor to this response, focussing on the model adaptations required over\u0000three pandemic years characterised by the imposition of lockdowns, mass\u0000vaccination campaigns and the emergence of new pandemic strains. The Bayesian\u0000model integrates an array of surveillance and other data sources including a\u0000novel approach to incorporating prevalence estimates from an unprecedented\u0000large-scale household survey. We present a full range of estimates of the\u0000epidemic history and the changing severity of the infection, quantify the\u0000impact of the vaccination programme and deconstruct contributing factors to the\u0000reproduction number. We further investigate the sensitivity of model-derived\u0000insights to the availability and timeliness of prevalence data, identifying its\u0000importance to the production of robust estimates.","PeriodicalId":501172,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - STAT - Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141944119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Causal Inference in Social Platforms Under Approximate Interference Networks 近似干扰网络下社交平台的因果推理

arXiv - STAT - Applications Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: arxiv-2408.04441

Yiming Jiang, Lu Deng, Yong Wang, He Wang

{"title":"Causal Inference in Social Platforms Under Approximate Interference Networks","authors":"Yiming Jiang, Lu Deng, Yong Wang, He Wang","doi":"arxiv-2408.04441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.04441","url":null,"abstract":"Estimating the total treatment effect (TTE) of a new feature in social\u0000platforms is crucial for understanding its impact on user behavior. However,\u0000the presence of network interference, which arises from user interactions,\u0000often complicates this estimation process. Experimenters typically face\u0000challenges in fully capturing the intricate structure of this interference,\u0000leading to less reliable estimates. To address this issue, we propose a novel\u0000approach that leverages surrogate networks and the pseudo inverse estimator.\u0000Our contributions can be summarized as follows: (1) We introduce the surrogate\u0000network framework, which simulates the practical situation where experimenters\u0000build an approximation of the true interference network using observable data.\u0000(2) We investigate the performance of the pseudo inverse estimator within this\u0000framework, revealing a bias-variance trade-off introduced by the surrogate\u0000network. We demonstrate a tighter asymptotic variance bound compared to\u0000previous studies and propose an enhanced variance estimator outperforming the\u0000original estimator. (3) We apply the pseudo inverse estimator to a real\u0000experiment involving over 50 million users, demonstrating its effectiveness in\u0000detecting network interference when combined with the difference-in-means\u0000estimator. Our research aims to bridge the gap between theoretical literature\u0000and practical implementation, providing a solution for estimating TTE in the\u0000presence of network interference and unknown interference structures.","PeriodicalId":501172,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - STAT - Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring the Impacts of Air Quality on Travel Behavior and Activity Participation: Evidence from Travel Diary Surveys in Northern Utah 探索空气质量对旅行行为和活动参与的影响：犹他州北部旅行日记调查的证据

arXiv - STAT - Applications Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: arxiv-2408.03839

Fariba Soltani Mandolakani, Mahyar Vahedi Saheli, Patrick A. Singleton

{"title":"Exploring the Impacts of Air Quality on Travel Behavior and Activity Participation: Evidence from Travel Diary Surveys in Northern Utah","authors":"Fariba Soltani Mandolakani, Mahyar Vahedi Saheli, Patrick A. Singleton","doi":"arxiv-2408.03839","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.03839","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we explored whether and how area-wide air pollution affected\u0000individuals' activity participation and travel behaviors, and how these effects\u0000differed by neighborhood context. Using multi-day travel survey data provided\u0000by 403 adults from 230 households in a small urban area in northern Utah, US,\u0000we analyzed a series of 20 activity and travel outcomes. We investigated the\u0000associations of three different metrics of (measured and perceived) air quality\u0000with these outcomes, separately for residents of urban and suburban/rural\u0000neighborhoods, and controlled for personal and household characteristics. Our\u0000models found some measurable changes in activity and travel patterns on days\u0000with poor air quality. In urban areas, people engaged in more mandatory\u0000(work/school) activities, whereas there was no discernible change in\u0000suburban/rural areas. The total travel time for urban residents increased,\u0000driven by increases in trip-making and travel time by public modes (bus) and\u0000increases in travel time by private modes (car). On the other hand,\u0000suburban/rural residents traveled shorter total distances (mostly through lower\u0000vehicle miles traveled), and there was a notable uptick in the probability of\u0000being an active mode user (walk/bike). Air quality perceptions also seemed to\u0000play a role, at least for urban residents who walked/biked longer distances,\u0000rode the bus for longer distances/times, and drove fewer miles on days with\u0000worse perceived air pollution. Overall, the results are somewhat encouraging,\u0000finding more evidence of altruistic than risk-averse travel behavioral\u0000responses to episodes of area-wide air pollution; although, more research is\u0000needed.","PeriodicalId":501172,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - STAT - Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141944126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Framework for Assessing Cumulative Exposure to Extreme Temperatures During Transit Trip 公交出行期间极端气温累积暴露评估框架

arXiv - STAT - Applications Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: arxiv-2408.04081

Huiying Fan, Hongyu Lu, Geyu Lyu, Angshuman Guin, Randall Guensler

{"title":"A Framework for Assessing Cumulative Exposure to Extreme Temperatures During Transit Trip","authors":"Huiying Fan, Hongyu Lu, Geyu Lyu, Angshuman Guin, Randall Guensler","doi":"arxiv-2408.04081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.04081","url":null,"abstract":"The combined influence of urban heat islands, climate change, and extreme\u0000temperature events are increasingly impacting transit travelers, especially\u0000vulnerable populations such as older adults, people with disabilities, and\u0000those with chronic diseases. Previous studies have generally attempted to\u0000address this issue at either the micro- or macro-level, but each approach\u0000presents different limitations in modeling the impacts on transit trips. Other\u0000research proposes a meso-level approach to address some of these gaps, but the\u0000use of additive exposure calculation and spatial shortest path routing poses\u0000constraints meso-modeling accuracy. This study introduces HeatPath Analyzer, a\u0000framework to assess the exposure of transit riders to extreme temperatures,\u0000using TransitSim 4.0 to generate second-by-second spatio-temporal trip\u0000trajectories, the traveler activity profiles, and thermal comfort levels along\u0000the entire journey. The approach uses heat stress combines the standards\u0000proposed by the NWS and CDC to estimate cumulative exposure for transit riders,\u0000with specific parameters tailored to the elderly and people with disabilities.\u0000The framework assesses the influence of extreme heat and winter chill. A case\u0000study in Atlanta, GA, reveals that 10.2% of trips on an average summer weekday\u0000in 2019 were at risk of extreme heat. The results uncover exposure disparities\u0000across different transit trip mode segments, and across mitigation-based and\u0000adaptation-based strategies. While the mitigation-based strategy highlights\u0000high-exposure segments such as long ingress and egress, adaptation should be\u0000prioritized toward the middle or second half of the trip when a traveler is\u0000waiting for transit or transferring between routes. A comparison between the\u0000traditional additive approach and the dynamic approach presented also shows\u0000significant disparities, which, if overlooked, can mislead policy decisions.","PeriodicalId":501172,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - STAT - Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141944121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Varying coefficients correlated velocity models in complex landscapes with boundaries applied to narwhal responses to noise exposure 有边界的复杂地貌中的变化系数相关速度模型应用于独角鲸对噪声暴露的反应

arXiv - STAT - Applications Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: arxiv-2408.03741

Alexandre Delporte, Susanne Ditlevsen, Adeline Samson

{"title":"Varying coefficients correlated velocity models in complex landscapes with boundaries applied to narwhal responses to noise exposure","authors":"Alexandre Delporte, Susanne Ditlevsen, Adeline Samson","doi":"arxiv-2408.03741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.03741","url":null,"abstract":"Narwhals in the Arctic are increasingly exposed to human activities that can\u0000temporarily or permanently threaten their survival by modifying their behavior.\u0000We examine GPS data from a population of narwhals exposed to ship and seismic\u0000airgun noise during a controlled experiment in 2018 in the Scoresby Sound fjord\u0000system in Southeast Greenland. The fjord system has a complex shore line,\u0000restricting the behavioral response options for the narwhals to escape the\u0000threats. We propose a new continuous-time correlated velocity model with\u0000varying coefficients that includes spatial constraints on movement. To assess\u0000the sound exposure effect we compare a baseline model for the movement before\u0000exposure to a response model for the movement during exposure. Our model,\u0000applied to the narwhal data, suggests increased tortuosity of the trajectories\u0000as a consequence of the spatial constraints, and further indicates that sound\u0000exposure can disturb narwhal motion up to a couple of tens of kilometers.\u0000Specifically, we found an increase in velocity and a decrease in the movement\u0000persistence.","PeriodicalId":501172,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - STAT - Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141944124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Chapter 10: Quantitative Models of Discounting 第 10 章：贴现的定量模型

arXiv - STAT - Applications Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: arxiv-2408.03929

Christopher T. Franck

引用次数: 0

Enhancing Stability and Assessing Uncertainty in Community Detection through a Consensus-based Approach 通过基于共识的方法增强群落探测的稳定性并评估其不确定性

arXiv - STAT - Applications Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: arxiv-2408.02959

Fabio Morea, Domenico De Stefano

{"title":"Enhancing Stability and Assessing Uncertainty in Community Detection through a Consensus-based Approach","authors":"Fabio Morea, Domenico De Stefano","doi":"arxiv-2408.02959","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.02959","url":null,"abstract":"Complex data in social and natural sciences find effective representation\u0000through networks, wherein quantitative and categorical information can be\u0000associated with nodes and connecting edges. The internal structure of networks\u0000can be explored using unsupervised machine learning methods known as community\u0000detection algorithms. The process of community detection is inherently subject\u0000to uncertainty as algorithms utilize heuristic approaches and randomised\u0000procedures to explore vast solution spaces, resulting in non-deterministic\u0000outcomes and variability in detected communities across multiple runs.\u0000Moreover, many algorithms are not designed to identify outliers and may fail to\u0000take into account that a network is an unordered mathematical entity. The main\u0000aim of our work is to address these issues through a consensus-based approach\u0000by introducing a new framework called Consensus Community Detection (CCD). Our\u0000method can be applied to different community detection algorithms, allowing the\u0000quantification of uncertainty for the whole network as well as for each node,\u0000and providing three strategies for dealing with outliers: incorporate,\u0000highlight, or group. The effectiveness of our approach is evaluated on\u0000artificial benchmark networks.","PeriodicalId":501172,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - STAT - Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141944128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Log-Gaussian Cox Processes for Spatiotemporal Traffic Fatality Estimation in Addis Ababa 用于估计亚的斯亚贝巴时空交通事故死亡率的对数高斯考克斯过程

arXiv - STAT - Applications Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: arxiv-2408.02612

Yassin Tesfaw Abebe, Abdu Mohammed Seid, Lassi Roininen

{"title":"Log-Gaussian Cox Processes for Spatiotemporal Traffic Fatality Estimation in Addis Ababa","authors":"Yassin Tesfaw Abebe, Abdu Mohammed Seid, Lassi Roininen","doi":"arxiv-2408.02612","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.02612","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of traffic accidents in Addis\u0000Ababa, Ethiopia, using 2016--2019 data. We formulate the traffic accident\u0000intensity as a log-Gaussian Cox Process and model it as a spatiotemporal point\u0000process with and without fixed and random effect components that incorporate\u0000possible covariates and spatial correlation information. The covariate includes\u0000population density and distance of accident locations from schools, from\u0000markets, from bus stops and from worship places. We estimate the posterior of\u0000the state variables using integrated nested Laplace approximations with\u0000stochastic partial differential equations approach by considering Mat`ern\u0000prior. Deviance and Watanabe - Akaike information criteria are used to check\u0000the performance of the models. We implement the methodology to map traffic\u0000accident intensity over Addis Ababa entirely and on its road networks and\u0000visualize the potential traffic accident hotspot areas. The comparison of the\u0000observation with the model output reveals that the covariates considered has\u0000significant effect for the accident intensity. Moreover, the information\u0000criteria results reveal the model with covariate performs well compared with\u0000the model without covariates. We obtained temporal correlation of the\u0000log-intensity as 0.78 indicating the existence of similar traffic fatality\u0000trend in space during the study period.","PeriodicalId":501172,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - STAT - Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141944125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Machine Learning-based Relative Valuation of Municipal Bonds 基于机器学习的市政债券相对估值

arXiv - STAT - Applications Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: arxiv-2408.02273

Preetha Saha, Jingrao Lyu, Dhruv Desai, Rishab Chauhan, Jerinsh Jeyapaulraj, Philip Sommer, Dhagash Mehta

引用次数: 0

A Novel Metric for Measuring the Robustness of Large Language Models in Non-adversarial Scenarios 衡量非对抗场景下大型语言模型鲁棒性的新标准

arXiv - STAT - Applications Pub Date : 2024-08-04 DOI: arxiv-2408.01963

Samuel Ackerman, Ella Rabinovich, Eitan Farchi, Ateret Anaby-Tavor

引用次数: 0