Llewelyn Ward, Annie Loosen, Mariana Barbosa, Maya Chartier, Chloe Nicholls, Olokhaktomiut Hunters and Trappers Committee, Francis Juanes, William Halliday, Stephen J. Insley
{"title":"Weather Effects on the Haul-Out Behaviour of Ringed Seals in the Amundsen Gulf","authors":"Llewelyn Ward, Annie Loosen, Mariana Barbosa, Maya Chartier, Chloe Nicholls, Olokhaktomiut Hunters and Trappers Committee, Francis Juanes, William Halliday, Stephen J. Insley","doi":"10.1111/maec.70114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/maec.70114","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ringed seals (<i>Pusa hispida</i>) use sea ice year-round in the Arctic as a platform for giving birth, raising young and moulting. Arctic ringed seal population assessments are typically conducted by aerial surveys flown in the spring, when many seals haul out. However, many factors can influence whether a seal is hauled out on the ice and available for detection. Understanding the environmental factors that impact ringed seal haul-out behaviour will reduce bias in aerial surveys. We deployed camera traps near Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, Canada in mid-May 2023, 2024 and 2025 facing open water leads in the sea ice to document haul-out behaviour of ringed seals under varying weather conditions. We used generalized additive mixed models to analyse the presence/absence and number of ringed seals hauled out. We found that high temperatures (> −4.3°C), low wind speeds (< 20 km/h), and high barometric pressure systems (101.4–101.8 kPa) increased the probability and number of ringed seals hauling out. We also found that haul-outs occurred at lower temperatures under conditions of low and moderate wind speeds, and that the number of seals hauled out increased at lower temperatures at low wind speeds. We identify specific ‘ideal weather’ parameters for aerial surveys, which will reduce availability bias when calculating density and abundance estimates.</p>","PeriodicalId":49883,"journal":{"name":"Marine Ecology-An Evolutionary Perspective","volume":"47 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/maec.70114","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148752486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sophie C. Leterme, Tamar Jamieson, Alessandra Mazzoli, Angus Hambrook, Rachel S. Popelka-Filcoff, John Bennett, Attila Stopic
{"title":"The Impact of Ocean Acidification on the Sorption of Trace Metals by Diatoms","authors":"Sophie C. Leterme, Tamar Jamieson, Alessandra Mazzoli, Angus Hambrook, Rachel S. Popelka-Filcoff, John Bennett, Attila Stopic","doi":"10.1111/maec.70112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/maec.70112","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Diatoms are a major phytoplankton group that plays a critical role in aquatic biogeochemical processes. Their metabolism relies on trace metals as cofactors for numerous enzymes, and changes in seawater pH may therefore influence metal sorption. Here, we investigated the effects of pH variability on diatom growth and trace-metal sorption using neutron activation analysis (NAA). Although NAA has rarely been applied to phytoplankton, we demonstrate its suitability for marine diatom samples. Overall, diatoms exposed to CO<sub>2</sub> treatment exhibited higher cell abundance but lower intracellular elemental concentrations. In particular, <i>Nitzschia navis-varingica</i> showed significantly lower concentrations of Al, Ce, Co, Cr, Fe, Mg, Mn and Zn under the CO<sub>2</sub> treatment. These trends are consistent with previous studies. For example, Zinc, which is a cofactor in many enzymes, plays a role in inorganic carbon acquisition; under lower pH, reduced enzymatic metal requirements likely explain the lower Zn concentrations observed. <i>Nitzschia navis-varingica</i> also had significantly lower levels of Co under lower pH. Both <i>Thalassiosira pseudonana</i> and <i>Nitzschia navis-varingica</i> showed lower Fe concentrations under CO<sub>2</sub> treatment. As Iron is required for photosynthetic and respiratory processes that support the carbon-concentrating mechanism (CCM), reduced CCM activity at lower pH may decrease Fe demand. Overall, this study highlights NAA as a robust approach for quantifying metal sorption in marine organisms and provides new insight into the effects of ocean acidification on the growth and elemental composition of diatoms.</p>","PeriodicalId":49883,"journal":{"name":"Marine Ecology-An Evolutionary Perspective","volume":"47 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/maec.70112","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148616847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Erika Meerhoff, Noemi Rojas-Hernández, David Véliz, Marcos Alaniz Rodrigues, Vincent Combes, Ricardo Matano, Omar Defeo
{"title":"Connectivity of the Blue Crab Callinectes sapidus in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean: Population Genetics, Biophysical Modeling and Management Implications","authors":"Erika Meerhoff, Noemi Rojas-Hernández, David Véliz, Marcos Alaniz Rodrigues, Vincent Combes, Ricardo Matano, Omar Defeo","doi":"10.1111/maec.70110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/maec.70110","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Bio-oceanographic modeling and population genomics were combined to assess connectivity of the blue crab <i>Callinectes sapidus</i> in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean, with particular attention to the scale of its fishery management, and the potential role of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in Uruguay as larval source zones. A bio-physical model, coupled with hydrodynamic outputs of a model experiment, incorporated larval vertical migration behavior and key species-specific traits to simulate dispersal pathways across the region. Population structure was assessed by using SNPs variability. Both approaches revealed substantial connectivity among sampled locations. Genomic population genetic analysis supported a single, well-mixed population across the study area, consistent with the extensive dispersal predicted by the model. These results highlight the need for management strategies tailored to the species' population structure and emphasize the importance of binational (Brazil-Uruguay) coordination for this transboundary fishery, which is already showing clear signs of overexploitation. Model simulations further showed that Uruguayan MPAs may act as important larval sources, particularly during winter recruitment under La Niña conditions, exporting propagules to non-protected areas in southern Brazil. By resolving the spatial and temporal scales of larval exchange, this study enhances regional understanding of connectivity patterns and supports evidence-based conservation planning for <i>C. sapidus</i>.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":49883,"journal":{"name":"Marine Ecology-An Evolutionary Perspective","volume":"47 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148467300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Muhammad Arif Nasution, Rika Astuti, Rudi Hermi, Fazril Saputra
{"title":"Nutrient-Driven Expansion of Reef Fish Habitat Suitability in Indonesian Waters: A 24-Year Analysis Reveals Iron and Phosphate as Dominant Drivers","authors":"Muhammad Arif Nasution, Rika Astuti, Rudi Hermi, Fazril Saputra","doi":"10.1111/maec.70109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/maec.70109","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Understanding the environmental factors associated with reef-associated fish habitat suitability is important for conservation planning in tropical archipelagic systems, where temperature, nutrient dynamics, productivity, and water quality interact across space and time. This study examined temporal changes in predicted habitat suitability for reef-associated fish across Indonesian waters from 2000 to 2023. Occurrence records were spatially thinned and modeled using MaxEnt with target-group background selection to reduce sampling bias. Model calibration was performed by comparing regularization multiplier values, and RM = 2 was selected for the final models. Four six-year periods were analyzed using satellite-derived oceanographic predictors representing thermal conditions, nutrients, productivity, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and suspended particulate matter. Model performance was consistently good, with mean test AUC values ranging from 0.841 to 0.900. Nutrient-related and water-quality variables were the most influential predictors of relative habitat suitability. Suspended particulate matter was the strongest contributor in T1, whereas dissolved iron dominated during T2–T4, followed by phosphate. Temperature variables contributed less than nutrient-related predictors, suggesting that reef-associated fish suitability in Indonesian waters is strongly associated with regional biogeochemical and water-quality gradients. Predicted suitable area showed a non-linear temporal pattern, declining from T1 to T2 before increasing in T3 and T4. However, these patterns should be interpreted as changes in relative environmental suitability, not direct evidence of population recovery or ecosystem resilience. These findings highlight the importance of integrating water-quality management, watershed control, reef monitoring, and field validation when using broad-scale habitat suitability models to inform reef fish conservation in Indonesian waters.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":49883,"journal":{"name":"Marine Ecology-An Evolutionary Perspective","volume":"47 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Robin L. van Dijk, Marcos Suárez-Menéndez, Ute Postel, Martine Bérubé, Bánk Beszteri, Per J. Palsbøll
{"title":"Unravelling Past Population Events in Diatoms With Genomic Based Demographic Inferences","authors":"Robin L. van Dijk, Marcos Suárez-Menéndez, Ute Postel, Martine Bérubé, Bánk Beszteri, Per J. Palsbøll","doi":"10.1111/maec.70108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/maec.70108","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The biological productivity in the Southern Ocean is mainly driven by the abundance of phytoplankton, which changes with seasons, fluctuations in sea ice and iron as well as light availability. The distribution of biological productivity is further modulated by ocean currents. Diatoms are a key element in the Southern Ocean's food web; thus, the effects of environmental changes on diatom population sizes have important implications for the overall ecosystem's productivity. In this study, we employed genomic data to assess the effects of glacial cycles on the population sizes and connectivity of the diatom <i>Fragilariopsis kerguelensis</i> in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. We detected three distinct variants among the 47 strains sampled along a latitudinal transect, all found in sympatry along the Polar Front. Demographic inferences identified major events during the last 100,000 years for two variants, characterized by a large decrease in effective population sizes followed by a rapid increase. These events overlapped with the change in environmental conditions during Pleistocene glacial cycles. Further research on mutation rates, generation time estimates and how changing environmental conditions influence these parameters in diatoms will improve the accuracy of the inferences drawn from these kinds of data. Although the use of genomic approaches in diatom species is in its infancy, this study highlights their potential to provide new insights into diatom past population sizes, responses and resilience to climate change and its effects on other trophic levels in the Southern Ocean.</p>","PeriodicalId":49883,"journal":{"name":"Marine Ecology-An Evolutionary Perspective","volume":"47 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/maec.70108","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148343213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Roberto Parada, Romain Chaput, Andrew G. Jeffs, Trevyn A. Toone, Michael Mendiola, Jonathan P. A. Gardner
{"title":"Population and Seascape Genomics of Perna canaliculus, the Endemic New Zealand Green-Lipped Mussel","authors":"Roberto Parada, Romain Chaput, Andrew G. Jeffs, Trevyn A. Toone, Michael Mendiola, Jonathan P. A. Gardner","doi":"10.1111/maec.70106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/maec.70106","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Describing patterns of spatially-explicit population genetic structure and connectivity is vital for well-designed conservation or management policies for marine species. However, for species having high dispersal capabilities and large population sizes, describing significant genetic structure may be difficult. <i>Perna canaliculus</i>, the endemic New Zealand green-lipped mussel, is the cornerstone species of this country's aquaculture industry. Several studies performed with various genetic marker types have revealed two distinct genetic groups (northern and southern), but no further genetic differentiation. Here, we describe the first use of ddRAD-seq-derived SNPs to examine the genetic structuring of <i>P. canaliculus</i>. Using 185 neutral and 28 outlier SNPs from 32 sampling sites, two major genetic groups (northern and south-west—with a genetic break at ~42° S, below the Cook Strait/Raukawa Moana region) were confirmed. The use of the outlier panel revealed stronger genetic differences in allelic frequencies than markers under neutral expectations. Moreover, the SNP data provided, for the first time, evidence of substructure over the extensive range of the population that was sampled: six further genetic subgroups were identified within the two main groups. Seascape analysis revealed that genetic variation correlates strongly with variables related to food availability, habitat composition and current speed, reflecting selective pressure and genetic signals of local adaptation, suggesting these processes play a key role modulating the genetic structure of the green-lipped mussel. Gene flow networks suggest migration from the south-west group into the northern group. This pattern of migration is also revealed in contemporary oceanographic models of larval dispersal, which indicate high historical gene flow between the two groups, and a minor influence of genetic drift. These results offer valuable insights into the genetic structure and factors influencing genetic divergence in <i>P. canaliculus</i> and how genetic stocks may be managed.</p>","PeriodicalId":49883,"journal":{"name":"Marine Ecology-An Evolutionary Perspective","volume":"47 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/maec.70106","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148282141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How Garibaldi Got Its Red Coat: The Genome of Hypsypops rubicundus, a Conspicuous Fish of the Northeastern Pacific Kelp Forests","authors":"Giacomo Bernardi","doi":"10.1111/maec.70107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/maec.70107","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Coloration in fishes plays central roles in communication, defense, and sexual selection, and is mediated by specialized pigment cells (chromatophores). In many species, red and orange hues derive from dietary carotenoids that are metabolically modified and intracellularly transported. The Garibaldi, <i>Hypsypops rubicundus</i>, a long-lived and iconic damselfish endemic to the eastern Pacific, displays a striking carotenoid-based orange-red coloration. To provide genomic resources for studying coloration genes in this species, we generated and assembled a high-quality genome using Oxford Nanopore long reads, yielding a 781.7 Mb assembly with 96% BUSCO completeness. As a proof of concept, we investigated the carotenoid-associated transport gene kif5b, which encodes a kinesin-1 motor protein involved in intracellular pigment mobilization. The kif5b gene in <i>H. rubicundus</i> comprises 25 exons and shows conserved organization relative to other damselfishes, but exhibits a unique amino acid substitution within a conserved nucleotide-binding motif (N3). Specifically, position 238 contains a leucine in <i>H. rubicundus</i>, whereas other damselfishes possess a glutamic acid or serine at this site. This substitution replaces a polar residue with a hydrophobic one, potentially affecting protein conformation or function. Phylogenetic analyses based on mitochondrial genomes and kif5b exons were largely congruent with published relationships. Our results establish the <i>H. rubicundus</i> genome as a valuable resource and identify a candidate molecular change that may contribute to its distinctive carotenoid-based coloration.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":49883,"journal":{"name":"Marine Ecology-An Evolutionary Perspective","volume":"47 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148282340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rafael Benjumea, Antonio Sandoval, María Del Mar Delgado
{"title":"Severe Population Decline of Great Skua Stercorarius skua Following a HPAI Outbreak Reflected in Migration Counts","authors":"Rafael Benjumea, Antonio Sandoval, María Del Mar Delgado","doi":"10.1111/maec.70099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/maec.70099","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The H5N1 avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that began in 2021 has led to widespread mortality in birds and mammals globally, significantly impacting seabird populations. This study examines the changes in the number of migratory great skuas (<i>Stercorarius skua</i>), a species particularly vulnerable due to its kleptoparasitic behavior and reliance on communal baths. Using a 59-year migration time series from Cape Estaca de Bares (Galicia, NW Spain), we first characterized long-term migration phenology. To evaluate the potential impact of HPAI, we then focused on the most standardized 20-year period (2004–2023; 35,828 observations). We first built a climate-based model using pre-HPAI data (2004–2020) to quantify the influence of weather conditions on the number of migrating great skuas. This model was subsequently used to generate predictions for the post-HPAI period (2021–2023) under observed weather conditions, allowing us to assess whether recent declines exceeded expectations based on weather variability alone. Migration counts revealed substantial interannual variation, with the sharpest decline in 2022 and 2023, coinciding with the HPAI outbreak. Importantly, observed migration numbers during the post-HPAI period were consistently lower than predicted based on weather conditions alone, indicating that weather cannot explain the recent decline. These results might suggest that the reduction in the number of migrating great skuas reflects the impact of an additional large-scale process consistent with the HPAI outbreak, mirroring similar trends observed in breeding colonies. Our findings highlight the critical role of long-term monitoring of migration studies in understanding the broader ecological implications of HPAI. Further investigations are necessary to determine how predation pressures by great skua and the virus's effects are influencing seabird species that it kleptoparasites.</p>","PeriodicalId":49883,"journal":{"name":"Marine Ecology-An Evolutionary Perspective","volume":"47 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/maec.70099","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148238237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Global Trends and Research Gaps in Tide Pool Studies: A Bibliometric Analysis (1934–2023)","authors":"Noelia Martín-Matas, Rodrigo Riera","doi":"10.1111/maec.70105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/maec.70105","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tide pools are dynamic intertidal habitats that have attracted sustained scientific attention due to their ecological complexity and accessibility as natural study systems. This study provides a quantitative bibliometric analysis of tide pool research conducted between 1934 and 2023. We compiled a global database of 249 publications to examine temporal trends, thematic focus, geographic distribution, and research structure within the field. Our analysis reveals a marked increase in publication output over time, with a pronounced acceleration after 2010, indicating growing scientific interest. Research topics are unevenly distributed, with fish-related studies representing the largest proportion of the literature, followed by experimental approaches. Other topics, including ecology, environmental drivers, and biodiversity, are present but comparatively less represented. Geographically, research effort is strongly concentrated in the Americas and Europe, while Africa and Asia remain underrepresented, highlighting significant spatial disparities in knowledge production. The diversity of research themes and their temporal evolution illustrate how tide pools have been used as model systems across multiple areas of marine science. At the same time, the observed imbalances in topic prevalence and geographic coverage point to important gaps in the current literature. Based on these patterns, we identify several forward-looking directions for research development, including expanded geographic representation, improved comparability across studies, and broader integration of complementary methodological approaches. By systematically characterizing the structure of existing research, this study provides a quantitative foundation for understanding how tide pool science has developed over time and where future efforts may be most effectively directed.</p>","PeriodicalId":49883,"journal":{"name":"Marine Ecology-An Evolutionary Perspective","volume":"47 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/maec.70105","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148238204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Seabirds, Herring and the Razor's Edge—To Finesse or Forgo When Facing Ecological Extirpation","authors":"Guy E. Melville","doi":"10.1111/maec.70104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/maec.70104","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Migrant juvenile Atlantic herring (<i>Clupea harengus</i>) from across the greater Gulf of Maine (GoM) provide pelagic forage in the Grand Manan Island region, a major trophic hub. A centuries-old weir fishery for herring juveniles, never monitored, has collapsed from chronic GoM overfishing. Razorbills (<i>Alca torda</i>) and Atlantic puffins (<i>Fratercula arctica</i>) nest on nearby Machias Seal Island, feeding their chicks with these herring. Using published data, this study demonstrates probabilistic relationships between weir-fishery landings of juvenile herring (~availability) and relative portions of young herring fed to both razorbill and puffin chicks. Herring-diet differences for razorbills suggest nuanced forecasting of prospective imminent fishery collapses. Facing collapse, razorbills are more likely to capture herring in addition to less-pelagic alternate species (hake, sand lance), while puffins make more use of the alternates. Previous research, based on exploratory correlation and regression, did not demonstrate these connections for the Grand Manan region. As indicator “units,” the probabilistic herring-seabird relationships raise the potential of interspecific corroboration in herring recruitment forecasts. For example, when landings are low, razorbill use is greater than puffin use, and razorbill herring biomass use remains moderate-to-high, fisheries for juveniles could place increased multiyear limits on prospective catches system-wide. Such relationships could be of considerable precautionary use, since systemic fishing-induced forage deficiencies have become the norm. With the erosion of resilience, ecosystem components are now at high risk of extirpation in the northeastern GoM. The concepts should increase understanding of Anthropocene challenges and the actions required of humans to prevent depletion of natural resilience in ecosystems.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":49883,"journal":{"name":"Marine Ecology-An Evolutionary Perspective","volume":"47 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148237604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}