Meteorological Applications最新文献

{"title":"Impact of rainfall variability on major crops using the deficient rainfall impact parameter (DRIP): A case study over Karnataka, India","authors":"Matadadoddi Nanjundegowda Thimmegowda,&nbsp;Melekote Hanumanthaiah Manjunatha,&nbsp;Lingaraj Huggi,&nbsp;Santanu Kumar Bal,&nbsp;Malamal Alickal Sarath Chandran,&nbsp;Dadireddihalli Venkatappa Soumya,&nbsp;Rangaswamanna Jayaramaiah","doi":"10.1002/met.70032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70032","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding the aberrant weather and farmers' behavior under those is crucial for achieving climate resilience. Among weather parameters, rainfall significantly affects crop production, from pre-sowing decisions to harvesting. However, the existing indices often overlook farmers' decision-making. To address this gap, a new deficient rainfall impact parameter (DRIP) index was utilized to evaluate rainfall variability's effects on principal rainfed crops in Karnataka, India's second-largest dryland agriculture state. Datasets from 2011 to 2022 on area, production, and productivity of major crops of Karnataka were analyzed. Notably, the state's highest DRIP score was recorded in <i>Kharif</i> sorghum during 2016 and 2019 (12.8 and 8.6), indicating an impact of deficient rainfall on its production. Similarly, a higher reduction in the area under <i>rabi</i> sorghum was observed in 2016 with higher DRIP scores (10.9). Conversely, a meager decrease in the area under rainfed rice was observed in 2018 (1.6) and 2016 (1.2) even though there was a deficit of rainfall. In contrast, maize evaded drought impact during 2015–18 with negative DRIP scores, indicating crop shifts. However, finger millet suffered moisture stress in 2016 and 2018. <i>Rabi</i> wheat showed higher DRIP scores in 2016, 2017, and 2018 (12.2, 2.2, and 19.0) due to rainfall deficits. Similarly, the positive DRIP scores for pigeonpea in 2016–2018 signified decreased cultivation due to rainfall deficits. Chickpea, mainly cultivated in <i>vertisols</i>, showed marginal impact from rainfall deficits, except in 2016 and 2021. Groundnut had positive DRIP scores in 2017–2018 (1.1 and 0.5) due to deficit rainfall and in 2020–2021 (1.7 and 0.5) due to crop replacement with onion. Castor, on the other hand, exhibited positive DRIP scores in most years, except 2019, 2020, and 2022. This study underscores the importance of understanding rainfall variability and its implications for agricultural practices, thereby contributing to informed decision-making and strategic planning to ensure regional and national food security.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70032","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143857108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unconventional observations for meteorological applications","authors":"Joanne Waller,&nbsp;Tess O' Hara","doi":"10.1002/met.70034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70034","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Conventional observations, such as those from satellites, radiosondes, weather balloons, ships, aircraft, traditional surface weather stations and rain gauges are commonly used in meteorological applications. Unconventional observations are becoming an increasingly valuable source of information for meteorological applications, often providing information at much higher spatial and temporal resolution than conventional observing networks and typically at a fraction of the cost (e.g., Nipen et al., &lt;span&gt;2020&lt;/span&gt;; O'Hara et al., &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;; Waller, &lt;span&gt;2020&lt;/span&gt;). They are also able to provide information more representative of local situations, such as individual urban streets, where conventional observing sites are not situated (e.g., Brousse et al., &lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;; Feichtinger et al., &lt;span&gt;2020&lt;/span&gt;). As a result, the usefulness of these observations is being investigated for a variety of different meteorological uses (Hahn et al., &lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;; Muller et al., &lt;span&gt;2015&lt;/span&gt;). There are also coordinated efforts to improve data access, processing and application, for example, the EU OpenSense project on the opportunistic sensing of rainfall (https://opensenseaction.eu/). However, a key issue identified with unconventional observations is the need for a good understanding of their quality, and the development of appropriate quality control methods (e.g., Beele et al., &lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;; Fenner et al., &lt;span&gt;2021&lt;/span&gt;; Napoly et al., &lt;span&gt;2018&lt;/span&gt;) to ensure their usefulness in various meteorological applications.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Unconventional observations for meteorological applications can be obtained in a variety of ways. Data may be obtained opportunistically with meteorological information derived from non-meteorological sensors, or via the deployment of a network of low-cost sensors (e.g., Chapman et al., &lt;span&gt;2015&lt;/span&gt;; Vetra-Carvalho et al., &lt;span&gt;2020&lt;/span&gt;). Alternatively, data can be ‘crowdsourced’ and obtained from a group of people either with or without their explicit involvement in the data collection process, for example, via private automatic weather stations or a smartphone ‘app’ or collected via citizen-science projects where information obtained from a group of people who are invited to participate in the data collection process (Hintz, Vedel, et al., &lt;span&gt;2019&lt;/span&gt;; Kirk et al., &lt;span&gt;2021&lt;/span&gt;). Such citizen science projects can be particularly valuable as they permit interaction between experts and the public, providing educational opportunities and experiential learning to aid in the appreciation of risks, for example, extreme weather impacts (Batchelder et al., &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;; Paul et al., &lt;span&gt;2018&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Within Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), unconventional observations have been used to supplement conventional data for nowcasting, data assimilation, forecast post-processing and forecast verification (Hintz et al., &lt;span&gt;2019&lt;/span&gt;). For example, private weather stati","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70034","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143852813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Meteorological Factors and the Spread of COVID-19: A Territorial Analysis in Italy","authors":"Telesca Vito,&nbsp;Castronuovo Gianfranco,&nbsp;Favia Gianfranco,&nbsp;Marra Mariarosaria,&nbsp;Rondinone Marica,&nbsp;Ceppi Alessandro","doi":"10.1002/met.70048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70048","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has generated significant global impacts on health and society, imposing a comprehensive analysis of its influencing factors, including weather variables. This study investigates the interaction between meteorological conditions and the spread of COVID-19 in three Italian regions: Lombardia, Emilia-Romagna, and Puglia. Effects of weather variables, such as air temperature, relative humidity, dew point, solar radiation, wind speed, and barometric pressure, are explored in the incidence of disease. Observed meteorological and health data are taken from various sources, such as the citizen-science Meteonetwork Association and the National Department of Civil Protection, respectively, and they are analyzed with statistical methods and machine learning algorithms. The study emphasizes the necessity of carefully considering key meteorological quantities as primary drivers in illness diffusion and prevention strategies, offering valuable insights to address challenges to the pandemic and ensure the safety of global communities. The results reveal a significant correlation between specific atmospheric variables and the spread of COVID-19, with dew point temperature as the most influential parameter at low air temperature values.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70048","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143836339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How bad is the rain? Applying the extreme rain multiplier globally and for climate monitoring activities","authors":"David A. Lavers,&nbsp;Gabriele Villarini,&nbsp;Hannah L. Cloke,&nbsp;Adrian Simmons,&nbsp;Nigel Roberts,&nbsp;Anna Lombardi,&nbsp;Samantha N. Burgess,&nbsp;Florian Pappenberger","doi":"10.1002/met.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70031","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A typical question posed following an extreme precipitation event is: How does this compare to past events? This question is being asked more frequently and is of importance to climate monitoring services, such as the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Currently, the statistics extensively used for this purpose are not generally understandable to the wider public, or they are not tailored towards presenting extremes. To mitigate this situation, this article uses a modified version of the Extreme Rain Multiplier (ERM), which was developed for tropical cyclones, and applies it to precipitation events globally. For daily precipitation considered herein, the ERM is calculated by dividing the daily precipitation accumulation during an event by the mean historical annual maxima of daily precipitation (RX1day), which is computed over 1991–2020. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis, the calculation of the ERM is illustrated for six extreme events around the world; these included convective systems, atmospheric rivers and tropical cyclones. A maximum ERM of 4 was found during Storm Daniel, in Greece, and in Tropical Cyclone Jasper in Australia, implying that four times the mean RX1day precipitation occurred. The ERM will be useful in C3S reporting activities because it can objectively identify extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, after extracting the number of precipitation events per year at each grid point that had an ERM exceeding 1, a trend analysis was undertaken to ascertain if the frequency of extreme events had changed with time. Results showed that the most widespread increasing trends in the ERM were in the tropics, but these trends are thought to be questionable in ERA5. There were few clear trends in other regions. In conclusion, the ERM can communicate the level of extreme precipitation in a clear manner and can be used in climate monitoring activities.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70031","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143822139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diagonal Scores and Neighborhood: Definitions and Application to Idealized Cases","authors":"Joël Stein","doi":"10.1002/met.70047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70047","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Elementary diagonal score including neighborhood is presented as a new spatial verification tool for ensemble forecasts. It allows a spatial tolerance to be taken into account in the calculation of elementary diagonal scores by considering regional quantiles calculated from cumulative density functions computed on points in a spatial neighborhood. A climatology of the observed regional quantiles is required to define these diagonal scores. As in the case of the elementary diagonal scores without neighborhood, the relationship between error penalty rates and the level of the predicted regional quantile is fixed in order to have a proper score. In addition, this penalty rate is related to the climatological frequency of the event, to ensure an equitable score. The comparison of observations and ensemble forecasts is then summarized in a contingency table for this elementary diagonal score. An integral diagonal score including neighborhood can be calculated by averaging the elementary diagonal scores including neighborhood over a relevant sample of thresholds, as for the integral diagonal score without neighborhood. The properties of these diagonal scores have been illustrated on idealized cases including realistically spatially correlated fields.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70047","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143822138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Science–policy–practice insights for compound and multi-hazard risks","authors":"Lou Brett,&nbsp;Hannah C. Bloomfield,&nbsp;Anna Bradley,&nbsp;Thibault Calvet,&nbsp;Adrian Champion,&nbsp;Silvia De Angeli,&nbsp;Marleen C. de Ruiter,&nbsp;Selma B. Guerreiro,&nbsp;John Hillier,&nbsp;David Jaroszweski,&nbsp;Bahareh Kamranzad,&nbsp;Minna M. Keinänen-Toivola,&nbsp;Kai Kornhuber,&nbsp;Katharina Küpfer,&nbsp;Colin Manning,&nbsp;Kanzis Mattu,&nbsp;Ellie Murtagh,&nbsp;Virginia Murray,&nbsp;Áine Ní Bhreasail,&nbsp;Fiachra O'Loughlin,&nbsp;Chris Parker,&nbsp;Maria Pregnolato,&nbsp;Alexandre M. Ramos,&nbsp;Julius Schlumberger,&nbsp;Dimitra Theochari,&nbsp;Philip Ward,&nbsp;Anke Wessels,&nbsp;Christopher J. White","doi":"10.1002/met.70043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70043","url":null,"abstract":"<p>When multiple weather-driven hazards such as heatwaves, droughts, storms or floods occur simultaneously or consecutively, their impacts on society and the environment can compound. Despite recent advances in compound event research, risk assessments by practitioners and policymakers remain predominantly single-hazard focused. This is largely due to traditional siloed approaches that assess and manage natural hazards. Hence, there is a need to adopt a more ‘multi-hazard approach’ to managing compound events in practice. This paper summarizes discussions from a 2-day workshop, held in Glasgow in January 2023, which brought together scientists, practitioners and policymakers to: (1) exchange a shared understanding of the concepts of compound and multi-hazard events; (2) learn from examples of science–policy–practice integration from both the single hazard and multi-hazard domains; and (3) explore how success stories could be used to improve the management of compound events and multi-hazard risks. Key themes discussed during the workshop included developing a common language, promoting knowledge co-production, fostering science–policy–practice integration, addressing complexity, utilising case studies for improved communication and centralising information for informed research, tools and frameworks. By bringing together experts from science, policy and practice, this workshop has highlighted ways to quantify compound and multi-hazard risks and synergistically incorporate them into policy and practice to enhance risk management.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70043","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143793522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The eastward propagation of hourly rainfall at the western edge of the Hengduan Mountains and its leading circulation patterns during the warm season","authors":"Hao Wu,&nbsp;Wei Hua,&nbsp;Xiaofei Wu,&nbsp;Weihua Yuan","doi":"10.1002/met.70045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70045","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Hengduan Mountains, which comprise numerous north–south-oriented mountains, exhibit unique precipitation characteristics and obvious regional differences. Based on the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) dataset, hourly rainfall features in the Hengduan Mountains during the warm season (May–September) from 2001 to 2021 were investigated. A key region with relatively large rainfall amounts and unique morning peaks was found at the western edge of the Hengduan Mountains (WEHM). The diurnal rainfall peaks showed an eastward delay from northern Myanmar to the WEHM. Less frequent long-duration events (longer than 6 h) contributed more than 58% to the cumulative precipitation amount at the WEHM. Moreover, long-duration rainfall exhibited similar eastward propagation features, which were further verified by the hourly variations in the rainfall amount and black-body temperature on long-duration rainfall days. Short-duration rainfall events accounted for below 20% of the cumulative precipitation and presented late-afternoon diurnal peaks at the WEHM. ERA5 data were employed to explain the rainfall propagation signal. The results indicated that the upstream low-level wind field significantly influences the diurnal variation of rainfall at the WEHM, and wind anomaly rotation from night to early morning contributed to the eastward delay in the onset of long-duration rainfall. In general, this work could contribute to a deeper comprehension of the precipitation characteristics and formation of morning rainfall over the WEHM.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70045","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143778185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Downscaling of the surface temperature forecasts based on deep learning approaches","authors":"Guangdi Chen,&nbsp;Xiefei Zhi,&nbsp;Shuyan Ding,&nbsp;Gen Wang,&nbsp;Liqun Zhou,&nbsp;Dexuan Kong,&nbsp;Tao Xiang,&nbsp;Yanhe Zhu","doi":"10.1002/met.70042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70042","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurate high-resolution temperature forecasting is of great significance for the economic and social development of humanity. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and the limitations of computational resources, model forecasts often lack sufficient resolution and exhibit systematic biases. Therefore, downscaling methods with smaller computational demands have become a good alternative. This study designed a super resolution generative adversarial network (SRGAN) for temperature downscaling, applying it to the 2 m temperature forecasts for the Southwest region of China from the Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS), with forecast lead times of 1 to 7 days. Meanwhile, linear regression (LR), along with two advanced deep learning downscaling methods, U-Net and super resolution deep residual networks (SRDRNs), were also used as benchmarks. The study shows that both deep learning methods, SRGAN and SRDRNs, can effectively address the issue of blurred temperature fields that may occur when using U-Net. By comparing the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE), pattern correlation coefficient (PCC), root mean square error (RMSE), and peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), we found that SRGAN demonstrated the best performance among the four methods. In this work, a suitable loss function was set using the VGG network to help SRGAN better capture small-scale details. Additionally, a mean square error decomposition method was used to further diagnose the sources of errors in different models, revealing their ability to calibrate various error sources. The results show that SRGAN, SRDRNs, and LR perform best in correcting the square of the bias (Bias²), while U-Net is most effective in correcting the sequence errors.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70042","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143778254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characteristics and atmospheric drivers of large-scale agrometeorologically relevant dry spells in sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over Zimbabwe","authors":"Gibbon I. T. Masukwedza,&nbsp;Victoria L. Boult,&nbsp;Melissa Lazenby,&nbsp;Martin C. Todd","doi":"10.1002/met.70039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70039","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article pioneers a unique approach to examining generic dry spells, shifting focus from traditional rain-free period analysis to a crop-centric perspective that integrates an anticipatory lens inspired by Impact-based Forecasting (IbF). Moving beyond traditional analyses of rain-free periods, the article evaluates these impactful within-season large-scale agrometeorologically relevant dry spells (LARDS) not by the number of days with minimal or no rainfall but by their impact—specifically, the adequacy of root-zone soil moisture to meet the optimal requirements of maize crops, as quantified through the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). LARDS were identified in maize-intensive growing regions of Zimbabwe under two maize planting date scenarios: meteorology-guided and uninformed. The research characterizes impactful within-season LARDS occurring at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over 36 years (1983–2018). Findings show that meteorological guidance improves yields while neglecting it results in lower yields. During LARDS, a distinct northwest-to-southeast suppressed rainfall pattern emerges over Zimbabwe, extending into neighbouring countries. This pattern is associated with a southwestward or northeastward displacement of Tropical Temperate Troughs (the regional primary rainfall system) relative to the country's location. Furthermore, LARDS exhibit overarching anticyclonic conditions impeding vertical cloud development with notable changes in the key local large-scale mean climatic features influencing Southern Africa's weather. Specifically, the Mozambique Channel Trough, Angola Tropical Low, Saint Helena High and Mascarene High weaken anomalously, while the Botswana High strengthens during LARDS. Additionally, we demonstrate that LARDS have a northeastward propagation and have atmospheric signatures indicative of being triggered by upstream Rossby waves originating from the south coast of South America.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70039","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Preferences for enhanced seasonal weather and climate services among maize farmers in Zimbabwe: A choice experiment analysis","authors":"Joseph Manzvera,&nbsp;Kwabena Asomanin Anaman,&nbsp;Akwasi Mensah-Bonsu,&nbsp;Alfred Barimah","doi":"10.1002/met.70040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70040","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using a discrete choice experiment, this article analyzed maize farmers' stated preferences for seasonal weather forecast attributes in Zimbabwe. Specifically, the study assessed the most preferred attributes of modern seasonal weather forecasts to guide investment priorities. The mixed logit model, which accounts for taste heterogeneity, was employed to analyze the data. The results show that maize farmers place positive utility on downscaling forecasts to the village level, bundling with agronomic advisory information, and a long lead time of 6 months ahead of the onset of the rainy season. Farmers are willing to pay 1.40 United States dollars (US$) for downscaling seasonal forecasts to the village level, US$1.50 for bundling seasonal weather forecasts with agronomic information such as suitable crop varieties to grow, and US$1.80 for disseminating seasonal forecasts with 6 months lead time. The marginal willingness to pay estimates translate to US$368 million economic value of modern seasonal weather forecasts per annum for all maize farmers in Zimbabwe. These findings underscored the importance attached to seasonal weather forecasts by farmers as a valuable decision-support service. Therefore, this study presents a compelling case for increasing national resource allocation towards the production and delivery of location-specific seasonal weather with a six-month lead time and bundling the forecasts with agronomic advisory information. Co-production of seasonal weather forecasts and integrating them with indigenous seasonal weather forecasts, as well as disseminating forecasts via mobile applications, could also be explored in addition to radio stations and extension agents. Public–private partnerships with private-sector players, such as telecommunication companies, could help to digitalize seasonal weather forecast dissemination.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70040","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}