Meteorological Applications最新文献

{"title":"Meteorological Factors and the Spread of COVID-19: A Territorial Analysis in Italy","authors":"Telesca Vito,&nbsp;Castronuovo Gianfranco,&nbsp;Favia Gianfranco,&nbsp;Marra Mariarosaria,&nbsp;Rondinone Marica,&nbsp;Ceppi Alessandro","doi":"10.1002/met.70048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70048","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has generated significant global impacts on health and society, imposing a comprehensive analysis of its influencing factors, including weather variables. This study investigates the interaction between meteorological conditions and the spread of COVID-19 in three Italian regions: Lombardia, Emilia-Romagna, and Puglia. Effects of weather variables, such as air temperature, relative humidity, dew point, solar radiation, wind speed, and barometric pressure, are explored in the incidence of disease. Observed meteorological and health data are taken from various sources, such as the citizen-science Meteonetwork Association and the National Department of Civil Protection, respectively, and they are analyzed with statistical methods and machine learning algorithms. The study emphasizes the necessity of carefully considering key meteorological quantities as primary drivers in illness diffusion and prevention strategies, offering valuable insights to address challenges to the pandemic and ensure the safety of global communities. The results reveal a significant correlation between specific atmospheric variables and the spread of COVID-19, with dew point temperature as the most influential parameter at low air temperature values.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70048","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143836339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How bad is the rain? Applying the extreme rain multiplier globally and for climate monitoring activities","authors":"David A. Lavers,&nbsp;Gabriele Villarini,&nbsp;Hannah L. Cloke,&nbsp;Adrian Simmons,&nbsp;Nigel Roberts,&nbsp;Anna Lombardi,&nbsp;Samantha N. Burgess,&nbsp;Florian Pappenberger","doi":"10.1002/met.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70031","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A typical question posed following an extreme precipitation event is: How does this compare to past events? This question is being asked more frequently and is of importance to climate monitoring services, such as the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Currently, the statistics extensively used for this purpose are not generally understandable to the wider public, or they are not tailored towards presenting extremes. To mitigate this situation, this article uses a modified version of the Extreme Rain Multiplier (ERM), which was developed for tropical cyclones, and applies it to precipitation events globally. For daily precipitation considered herein, the ERM is calculated by dividing the daily precipitation accumulation during an event by the mean historical annual maxima of daily precipitation (RX1day), which is computed over 1991–2020. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis, the calculation of the ERM is illustrated for six extreme events around the world; these included convective systems, atmospheric rivers and tropical cyclones. A maximum ERM of 4 was found during Storm Daniel, in Greece, and in Tropical Cyclone Jasper in Australia, implying that four times the mean RX1day precipitation occurred. The ERM will be useful in C3S reporting activities because it can objectively identify extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, after extracting the number of precipitation events per year at each grid point that had an ERM exceeding 1, a trend analysis was undertaken to ascertain if the frequency of extreme events had changed with time. Results showed that the most widespread increasing trends in the ERM were in the tropics, but these trends are thought to be questionable in ERA5. There were few clear trends in other regions. In conclusion, the ERM can communicate the level of extreme precipitation in a clear manner and can be used in climate monitoring activities.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70031","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143822139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diagonal Scores and Neighborhood: Definitions and Application to Idealized Cases","authors":"Joël Stein","doi":"10.1002/met.70047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70047","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Elementary diagonal score including neighborhood is presented as a new spatial verification tool for ensemble forecasts. It allows a spatial tolerance to be taken into account in the calculation of elementary diagonal scores by considering regional quantiles calculated from cumulative density functions computed on points in a spatial neighborhood. A climatology of the observed regional quantiles is required to define these diagonal scores. As in the case of the elementary diagonal scores without neighborhood, the relationship between error penalty rates and the level of the predicted regional quantile is fixed in order to have a proper score. In addition, this penalty rate is related to the climatological frequency of the event, to ensure an equitable score. The comparison of observations and ensemble forecasts is then summarized in a contingency table for this elementary diagonal score. An integral diagonal score including neighborhood can be calculated by averaging the elementary diagonal scores including neighborhood over a relevant sample of thresholds, as for the integral diagonal score without neighborhood. The properties of these diagonal scores have been illustrated on idealized cases including realistically spatially correlated fields.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70047","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143822138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Science–policy–practice insights for compound and multi-hazard risks","authors":"Lou Brett,&nbsp;Hannah C. Bloomfield,&nbsp;Anna Bradley,&nbsp;Thibault Calvet,&nbsp;Adrian Champion,&nbsp;Silvia De Angeli,&nbsp;Marleen C. de Ruiter,&nbsp;Selma B. Guerreiro,&nbsp;John Hillier,&nbsp;David Jaroszweski,&nbsp;Bahareh Kamranzad,&nbsp;Minna M. Keinänen-Toivola,&nbsp;Kai Kornhuber,&nbsp;Katharina Küpfer,&nbsp;Colin Manning,&nbsp;Kanzis Mattu,&nbsp;Ellie Murtagh,&nbsp;Virginia Murray,&nbsp;Áine Ní Bhreasail,&nbsp;Fiachra O'Loughlin,&nbsp;Chris Parker,&nbsp;Maria Pregnolato,&nbsp;Alexandre M. Ramos,&nbsp;Julius Schlumberger,&nbsp;Dimitra Theochari,&nbsp;Philip Ward,&nbsp;Anke Wessels,&nbsp;Christopher J. White","doi":"10.1002/met.70043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70043","url":null,"abstract":"<p>When multiple weather-driven hazards such as heatwaves, droughts, storms or floods occur simultaneously or consecutively, their impacts on society and the environment can compound. Despite recent advances in compound event research, risk assessments by practitioners and policymakers remain predominantly single-hazard focused. This is largely due to traditional siloed approaches that assess and manage natural hazards. Hence, there is a need to adopt a more ‘multi-hazard approach’ to managing compound events in practice. This paper summarizes discussions from a 2-day workshop, held in Glasgow in January 2023, which brought together scientists, practitioners and policymakers to: (1) exchange a shared understanding of the concepts of compound and multi-hazard events; (2) learn from examples of science–policy–practice integration from both the single hazard and multi-hazard domains; and (3) explore how success stories could be used to improve the management of compound events and multi-hazard risks. Key themes discussed during the workshop included developing a common language, promoting knowledge co-production, fostering science–policy–practice integration, addressing complexity, utilising case studies for improved communication and centralising information for informed research, tools and frameworks. By bringing together experts from science, policy and practice, this workshop has highlighted ways to quantify compound and multi-hazard risks and synergistically incorporate them into policy and practice to enhance risk management.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70043","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143793522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The eastward propagation of hourly rainfall at the western edge of the Hengduan Mountains and its leading circulation patterns during the warm season","authors":"Hao Wu,&nbsp;Wei Hua,&nbsp;Xiaofei Wu,&nbsp;Weihua Yuan","doi":"10.1002/met.70045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70045","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Hengduan Mountains, which comprise numerous north–south-oriented mountains, exhibit unique precipitation characteristics and obvious regional differences. Based on the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) dataset, hourly rainfall features in the Hengduan Mountains during the warm season (May–September) from 2001 to 2021 were investigated. A key region with relatively large rainfall amounts and unique morning peaks was found at the western edge of the Hengduan Mountains (WEHM). The diurnal rainfall peaks showed an eastward delay from northern Myanmar to the WEHM. Less frequent long-duration events (longer than 6 h) contributed more than 58% to the cumulative precipitation amount at the WEHM. Moreover, long-duration rainfall exhibited similar eastward propagation features, which were further verified by the hourly variations in the rainfall amount and black-body temperature on long-duration rainfall days. Short-duration rainfall events accounted for below 20% of the cumulative precipitation and presented late-afternoon diurnal peaks at the WEHM. ERA5 data were employed to explain the rainfall propagation signal. The results indicated that the upstream low-level wind field significantly influences the diurnal variation of rainfall at the WEHM, and wind anomaly rotation from night to early morning contributed to the eastward delay in the onset of long-duration rainfall. In general, this work could contribute to a deeper comprehension of the precipitation characteristics and formation of morning rainfall over the WEHM.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70045","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143778185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Downscaling of the surface temperature forecasts based on deep learning approaches","authors":"Guangdi Chen,&nbsp;Xiefei Zhi,&nbsp;Shuyan Ding,&nbsp;Gen Wang,&nbsp;Liqun Zhou,&nbsp;Dexuan Kong,&nbsp;Tao Xiang,&nbsp;Yanhe Zhu","doi":"10.1002/met.70042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70042","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurate high-resolution temperature forecasting is of great significance for the economic and social development of humanity. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and the limitations of computational resources, model forecasts often lack sufficient resolution and exhibit systematic biases. Therefore, downscaling methods with smaller computational demands have become a good alternative. This study designed a super resolution generative adversarial network (SRGAN) for temperature downscaling, applying it to the 2 m temperature forecasts for the Southwest region of China from the Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS), with forecast lead times of 1 to 7 days. Meanwhile, linear regression (LR), along with two advanced deep learning downscaling methods, U-Net and super resolution deep residual networks (SRDRNs), were also used as benchmarks. The study shows that both deep learning methods, SRGAN and SRDRNs, can effectively address the issue of blurred temperature fields that may occur when using U-Net. By comparing the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE), pattern correlation coefficient (PCC), root mean square error (RMSE), and peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), we found that SRGAN demonstrated the best performance among the four methods. In this work, a suitable loss function was set using the VGG network to help SRGAN better capture small-scale details. Additionally, a mean square error decomposition method was used to further diagnose the sources of errors in different models, revealing their ability to calibrate various error sources. The results show that SRGAN, SRDRNs, and LR perform best in correcting the square of the bias (Bias²), while U-Net is most effective in correcting the sequence errors.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70042","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143778254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characteristics and atmospheric drivers of large-scale agrometeorologically relevant dry spells in sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over Zimbabwe","authors":"Gibbon I. T. Masukwedza,&nbsp;Victoria L. Boult,&nbsp;Melissa Lazenby,&nbsp;Martin C. Todd","doi":"10.1002/met.70039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70039","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article pioneers a unique approach to examining generic dry spells, shifting focus from traditional rain-free period analysis to a crop-centric perspective that integrates an anticipatory lens inspired by Impact-based Forecasting (IbF). Moving beyond traditional analyses of rain-free periods, the article evaluates these impactful within-season large-scale agrometeorologically relevant dry spells (LARDS) not by the number of days with minimal or no rainfall but by their impact—specifically, the adequacy of root-zone soil moisture to meet the optimal requirements of maize crops, as quantified through the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). LARDS were identified in maize-intensive growing regions of Zimbabwe under two maize planting date scenarios: meteorology-guided and uninformed. The research characterizes impactful within-season LARDS occurring at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over 36 years (1983–2018). Findings show that meteorological guidance improves yields while neglecting it results in lower yields. During LARDS, a distinct northwest-to-southeast suppressed rainfall pattern emerges over Zimbabwe, extending into neighbouring countries. This pattern is associated with a southwestward or northeastward displacement of Tropical Temperate Troughs (the regional primary rainfall system) relative to the country's location. Furthermore, LARDS exhibit overarching anticyclonic conditions impeding vertical cloud development with notable changes in the key local large-scale mean climatic features influencing Southern Africa's weather. Specifically, the Mozambique Channel Trough, Angola Tropical Low, Saint Helena High and Mascarene High weaken anomalously, while the Botswana High strengthens during LARDS. Additionally, we demonstrate that LARDS have a northeastward propagation and have atmospheric signatures indicative of being triggered by upstream Rossby waves originating from the south coast of South America.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70039","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Preferences for enhanced seasonal weather and climate services among maize farmers in Zimbabwe: A choice experiment analysis","authors":"Joseph Manzvera,&nbsp;Kwabena Asomanin Anaman,&nbsp;Akwasi Mensah-Bonsu,&nbsp;Alfred Barimah","doi":"10.1002/met.70040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70040","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using a discrete choice experiment, this article analyzed maize farmers' stated preferences for seasonal weather forecast attributes in Zimbabwe. Specifically, the study assessed the most preferred attributes of modern seasonal weather forecasts to guide investment priorities. The mixed logit model, which accounts for taste heterogeneity, was employed to analyze the data. The results show that maize farmers place positive utility on downscaling forecasts to the village level, bundling with agronomic advisory information, and a long lead time of 6 months ahead of the onset of the rainy season. Farmers are willing to pay 1.40 United States dollars (US$) for downscaling seasonal forecasts to the village level, US$1.50 for bundling seasonal weather forecasts with agronomic information such as suitable crop varieties to grow, and US$1.80 for disseminating seasonal forecasts with 6 months lead time. The marginal willingness to pay estimates translate to US$368 million economic value of modern seasonal weather forecasts per annum for all maize farmers in Zimbabwe. These findings underscored the importance attached to seasonal weather forecasts by farmers as a valuable decision-support service. Therefore, this study presents a compelling case for increasing national resource allocation towards the production and delivery of location-specific seasonal weather with a six-month lead time and bundling the forecasts with agronomic advisory information. Co-production of seasonal weather forecasts and integrating them with indigenous seasonal weather forecasts, as well as disseminating forecasts via mobile applications, could also be explored in addition to radio stations and extension agents. Public–private partnerships with private-sector players, such as telecommunication companies, could help to digitalize seasonal weather forecast dissemination.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70040","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weather analysis applying the new clothing resistance model","authors":"Ferenc Ács,&nbsp;Erzsébet Kristóf,&nbsp;Annamária Zsákai","doi":"10.1002/met.70041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70041","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A new clothing resistance model is described and applied to characterize the thermal load of weather as a function of human reactions such as activity and sweating. Weather was described by the thermal resistance (<i>r</i>_cl,<i>t</i>) and evaporative resistance (<i>r</i>_cl,<i>e</i>) of comfortable, imaginary clothing. The key input variable of the model is the rate of sweating (<i>λE</i>_sw). Since sweating is an individual-specific process, the model applies to the individual. Therefore, the longitudinal data collection method was applied, with observations conducted by a single individual in Martonvásár (Hungarian lowland, Central Europe) during the summer of 2023 and the winter of 2024. Furthermore, a database containing the anthropometric data of more than 3000 individuals was also analyzed. Our main findings are as follows: the model is applicable within the range of thermal neutrality when the environmental heat surplus and the rate of sweating are high, as well as when the environmental heat deficit is high, with no sweating. During large environmental heat surpluses, the <i>r</i>_cl,<i>t</i> values were found to be between 0.1 and 0.5 clo-t (clo-t = 0.155 m²·°C·W⁻¹), while the <i>r</i>_cl,<i>e</i> values fell between 0.4 and 0.8 clo-e (clo-e = 0.155 m²·hPa·W⁻¹). The values of the parameters close to 0 were caused by intense sweating (<i>λE</i>_sw &gt; 200 W·m⁻²). The applicability of the model is limited and largely depends on the relationship between <i>λE</i>_sw and the metabolic heat flux density, while <i>r</i>_cl,<i>t</i> is also significantly dependent on human factors.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70041","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143698996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of 3D-Var and 4D-Var data assimilation on simulation of heavy rainfall events over the Indian region","authors":"Shivaji S. Patel,&nbsp;Ashish Routray,&nbsp;Vivek Singh,&nbsp;R. Bhatla,&nbsp;Rohan Kumar,&nbsp;Elena Surovyatkina","doi":"10.1002/met.70037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70037","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The present study delineates the relative performance of 3D-Var and 4D-Var data assimilation (DA) techniques in the regional NCUM-R model to simulate three heavy rainfall events (HREs) over the Indian region. Four numerical experiments for three extreme rainfall cases were conducted by assimilating different combinations of observations from surface, aircraft, upper-air and satellite-derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) using 3D-Var and 4D-Var techniques. These experiments generated initial conditions (ICs) for the NCUM-R forecast model to simulate HREs. Key atmospheric variables, such as wind speed and direction, vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT: kg.m⁻¹.s⁻¹), vertical profiles of relative humidity and temperature as well as various stability indices are analysed during the HREs. Forecast verification was performed using statistical skill scores and object-based methods from the METplus tool, comparing NCUM-R output against GPM rainfall data. The results demonstrate that the 4D-Var technique improves simulation accuracy compared to 3D-Var, particularly when assimilating satellite wind data. Incorporating satellite-derived AMVs improved the representation of rainfall intensity and spatial patterns, as well as other atmospheric variables. It is found that rainfall for Case-01, the VIMT was notably high along the eastern coast of India and southwest of BoB, with the 4DVS simulation better capturing moisture transport patterns compared to 3DVS and 3DV. The SWEAT index ranged from 205 to 250 J·kg⁻¹ in the morning, rising to 250–300 J·kg⁻¹ by noon, indicating increasing convective instability. On 18 March 2023 (Day-1), the K-index exceeded 30, signalling scattered thunderstorms, consistent with the IMD's reports of isolated to scattered rainfall on 19th and 20th March 2023. Similarly, it is found that satellite wind assimilation improved the statistical skill scores in predicting heavy precipitation in all three cases. Overall, the study suggested that the performance of the NCUM-R model integrated with the 4D-Var technique improved the model's forecast skill in the simulation of HREs.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70037","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143633065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}