Meteorological Applications最新文献

{"title":"Improving blended probability forecasts with neural networks","authors":"Belinda Trotta","doi":"10.1002/met.70021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70021","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Operational forecasting systems often combine calibrated probabilistic outputs from several numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. A common approach is to use a weighted blend, with the more accurate models having higher weights. We show that this approach is not ideal and that using a simple neural network to combine forecasts yields better results. The sharpness of the forecast is increased, so that extreme events are more likely to be predicted. Improvements are also observed in accuracy as measured by the continuous rank probability score (CRPS) and reliability. The proposed neural network model has a simple architecture with few parameters, and training and inference can easily be done using a central processing unit. This makes it a practical option for improving the accuracy of blended operational forecasts.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70021","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to “Skilful probabilistic medium-range precipitation and temperature forecasts over Vietnam for the development of a future dengue early warning system”","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/met.70018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70018","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Main, L., Sparrow, S., Weisheimer, A., &amp; Wright, M. (2024) Skilful probabilistic medium-range precipitation and temperature forecasts over Vietnam for the development of a future dengue early warning system. <i>Meteorological Applications</i>, 31(4), e2222. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2222</p><p>We apologize for this error.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142851276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drought forecasting with regionalization of climate variables and generalized linear model","authors":"Taesam Lee,&nbsp;Yejin Kong,&nbsp;Joo-Heon Lee,&nbsp;Chang-Hee Won","doi":"10.1002/met.70016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70016","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Spring drought forecasting is essential in South Korea for managing water resources reliably and cultivating agricultural products efficiently, as seasonal rainfall difference often drives water shortage during spring. In the current study, a novel scheme for spring drought forecasting was suggested by extensively searching appropriate predictors from the global climate variable: here mean sea level pressure (MSLP) of the winter season due to its time lag for forecasting. The target series was estimated with the median of the spring precipitation series of the weather stations over South Korea, called the accumulated spring precipitation (ASP). A number of points of the MSLP data were detected as significant cross-correlation with the ASP and also the points were regionally grouped. Therefore, the regionalization for the high correlation points was performed, resulting in three regions, such as Arctic Ocean (R1), South Pacific (R2), and South Africa (R3). The R1 and R2 regions are located at the places where climate indices have been developed such as Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation for R1 and the indicator of El-Nino and Southern Oscillation for R2. The generalized linear model (GLM) was adopted in ASP drought forecasting with the driven three regionalized indices as the predictors of the ASP. The result indicates that the regionalized indices can produce a good performance in forecasting the ASP. The forecasting result can be employed as a good tool for managing water resources and planning better cultivation in agriculture industries.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142763988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Numerical simulation and its optimization of cold air pools in the Lanzhou Valley","authors":"Minjin Ma,&nbsp;Guoqiang Kang,&nbsp;Zhenzhu Zhao,&nbsp;Yidan Cao","doi":"10.1002/met.70020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70020","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Persistent cold air pools (CAPs) trap pollutants in valleys for extended periods, leading to reduced visibility and increased air pollution within these valleys. The structure of the persistent cold air pool that occurred in the Lanzhou Valley in December 2016 was simulated using different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) scenarios of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and the simulation of the persistent cold air pool was further optimized in these PBL scenarios. The simulation results indicated that weather-scale dry subsidence and nighttime ground radiation cooling were significant factors contributing to the accumulation of persistent CAPs and pollutants in the Lanzhou Valley. In contrast, convective lifting from the ground led to the dissipation of persistent CAPs and a reduction in pollution within the valley. During persistent CAPs, the PM_2.5 concentration and valley heat deficit (Q) were 66.7% and 62% higher, respectively, than during non-CAP. In the original MYNN scheme, the average PBL height, double turbulent kinetic energy (QKE), and turbulence length scale during persistent CAPs decreased by 30.79%, 50.5%, and 34.4%, respectively, compared to non-CAP. Compared with the original MYNN scheme, the optimized MYNN scheme shows a significant improvement in the turbulence simulation during the sustained CAPs, resulting in a more stable atmosphere. The PBL height during the sustained CAPs is reduced by 28 m, the diurnal turbulence length scale is reduced by 31.62%, the stability parameter is reduced by 39%, the diurnal mean QKE is reduced by 27.45%, and the QKE impact height is reduced by 100–400 m.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70020","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142749138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How concerning is Lucifer? Insights from an experimental study of public responses to heat event naming in England and Italy","authors":"Barbara Summers,&nbsp;Andrea Taylor,&nbsp;Pietro Bellomo,&nbsp;Suraje Dessai","doi":"10.1002/met.70017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70017","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Summer 2023 saw record high temperatures across several European countries with these heat events being unofficially dubbed Cerberus and Charon. This has led to discussion about whether naming severe heat events is an effective way to convey the risks posed. In online experiments with regionally representative sample of members of the public in England and Italy, we assessed the effect of giving a heat event a mythological, non-mythological or no name on anticipated severity, concern, trust/confidence and behavioural intention. We find that while naming alone does not have a strong effect on anticipated response to severe heat events in either country, going against the established trend of using mythological names in Italy could diminish concern.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70017","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing multivariate post-processed visibility predictions utilizing Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service forecasts","authors":"Mária Lakatos,&nbsp;Sándor Baran","doi":"10.1002/met.70015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70015","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In our contemporary era, meteorological weather forecasts increasingly incorporate ensemble predictions of visibility—a parameter of great importance in aviation, maritime navigation, and air quality assessment, with direct implications for public health. However, this weather variable falls short of the predictive accuracy achieved for other quantities issued by meteorological centers. Therefore, statistical post-processing is recommended to enhance the reliability and accuracy of predictions. By estimating the predictive distributions of the variables with the aid of historical observations and forecasts, one can achieve statistical consistency between true observations and ensemble predictions. Visibility observations, following the recommendation of the World Meteorological Organization, are typically reported in discrete values; hence, the predictive distribution of the weather quantity takes the form of a discrete parametric law. Recent studies demonstrated that the application of classification algorithms can successfully improve the skill of such discrete forecasts; however, a frequently emerging issue is that certain spatial and/or temporal dependencies could be lost between marginals. Based on visibility ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for 30 locations in Central Europe, we investigate whether the inclusion of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) predictions of the same weather quantity as an additional covariate could enhance the skill of the post-processing methods and whether it contributes to the successful integration of spatial dependence between marginals. Our study confirms that post-processed forecasts are substantially superior to raw and climatological predictions, and the utilization of CAMS forecasts provides a further significant enhancement both in the univariate and multivariate setup. We also demonstrate that post-processing significantly improves the predictions of low visibility events, which opens the door for aeronautical applications.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142708003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Atmospheric icing meteorological parameter study using field experiments and simulation","authors":"Xingbo Han,&nbsp;Muhammad Virk,&nbsp;Hamza Asif,&nbsp;Anssi Mäkynen,&nbsp;Harri Juttula,&nbsp;Eero Molkoselkä,&nbsp;Ville A. Kaikkonen","doi":"10.1002/met.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70013","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Atmospheric icing on ground structures is a concern from design, operation, and safety perspectives. Supercooled water droplets size and liquid water content (LWC) are important weather parameters to better understand the ice accretion physics on ground structures. Most existing studies are based on measurements at high altitude. The study is based on the field results of a specific event (from 9:30 to 22:27 h on October 29, 2022) in Arctic region of northern Norway. The data from this event are presented and used for analytical validation and simulation. Field measurements of different meteorological weather parameters including the droplet size and LWC are carried out leading to recording of resultant atmospheric ice load and intensity. A comprehensive study is also carried out to validate droplet collision efficiency and ice load using the existing analytical model ISO-12494 and computational fluid dynamics (CFD)–based numerical simulations. Furthermore, the differences in icing simulation using parameters such as median volume diameter (MVD), Langmuir B –J as alternatives to the actual droplet size distribution (DSD) spectrum are also analyzed. The results show that under natural meteorological conditions, the characteristics of water DSD change in real time. Using MVD alone to calculate the water droplet collision efficiency on circular cylinders can lead to significant errors. Accurately selecting the Langmuir distribution as a substitute for the actual DSD can reduce simulation errors to within 5%. Compared to the analytical model, the numerical simulations result better reflects the collision characteristics of water droplets of different sizes on the cylindrical object.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142641665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulation of emissions from pottery kilns in the Roman period","authors":"Clemens Drüe","doi":"10.1002/met.70010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70010","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Present-day air quality is known through dense monitoring and extensive pollution control mechanisms. In contrast, knowledge of historical pollution, particularly before the industrial revolution, is accessible only through occasional reports of singular local events and through natural archives such as ice or sediment cores that record global-scale pollution. However, the regular local to regional pollution that most affects human life is hardly known. Historical sciences have argued both for and against significant air pollution in and around historic cities and manufacturing sites. For the Roman era, it has been hypothesized that air quality played a role in several patterns of action of the period. However, to the author's knowledge, there are no quantitative studies of Roman emissions. Using the results of modern experimental archaeology, this study attempts to quantify the emissions from Roman pottery kilns and their impact on surrounding human settlements. It is shown that although the pollution did not reach today's limits, it must have approached levels known to cause adverse health effects. A series of additional test simulations have been conducted to determine how these first results might be improved in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142641419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"MERIDA HRES: A new high-resolution reanalysis dataset for Italy","authors":"Francesca Viterbo,&nbsp;Simone Sperati,&nbsp;Bruno Vitali,&nbsp;Filippo D'Amico,&nbsp;Francesco Cavalleri,&nbsp;Riccardo Bonanno,&nbsp;Matteo Lacavalla","doi":"10.1002/met.70011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70011","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Power utilities are increasingly emphasizing the need for high-resolution reanalysis datasets to develop resilience plans for protecting and managing infrastructure against extreme weather events. In response, Ricerca Sul Sistema Energetico (RSE) S.p.A. created the new MEteorological Reanalysis Italian DAtaset (MERIDA) High-RESolution (HRES) reanalysis, a 4-km resolution dataset with explicit convection specifically designed for Italy. This dataset, publicly available from 1986 to the present, has been evaluated and compared with the previously developed MERIDA reanalysis dataset (7-km resolution over Italy) and ERA5, the global reanalysis driver. The validation is conducted across different scales (i.e., from climatology to single extreme events) and for multiple variables (i.e., 2-meter temperature, daily total precipitation, and 10-meter wind speed). Specific cases, such as a convective storm in July 2016 in northern Italy near Bergamo and the more synoptically driven Vaia storm in October 2018, are analyzed to illustrate the dataset's potential in capturing precipitation and wind extremes. Additionally, the Arbus wildfire event in Sardinia is examined to showcase a multivariable application for assessing fire weather hazards. Through performance maps and statistical analyses, the ability of MERIDA HRES to represent both long-term statistics and extreme events is highlighted. Despite a consistent cold temperature bias across Italy, with higher peaks over mountainous regions, the performance of precipitation and wind outperforms that of both MERIDA and ERA5 in all analyzed cases. These findings demonstrate the significant potential of this product for multiple applications in Italy.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142641390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of forecasted wind speed at turbine hub height and wind ramps by five NWP models with observations from 262 wind farms over China","authors":"Chenxi Jin,&nbsp;Yang Yang,&nbsp;Chao Han,&nbsp;Ting Lei,&nbsp;Chen Li,&nbsp;Bing Lu","doi":"10.1002/met.70007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70007","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurate wind speed forecasts are essential for optimizing the efficiency of wind energy operations. Currently, there is limited research on nationwide assessment of predictive performance in multiple numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for wind speed at turbine hub height over China, especially concerning wind ramp events. Utilizing observed measurements from 262 wind farms, this study evaluated the performance of five NWP models in forecasting the mean state and spatiotemporal variations of wind speed as well as wind ramps. The results indicated that the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF–IFS) performed the best in forecasting climatological wind speed with a temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) of 0.74 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.34 m s⁻¹. Although not widely utilized in China, the model from Meteo-France (MF–ARPEGE) showed promising potential for wind energy forecasting with a TCC of 0.72 and RMSE of 2.45 m s⁻¹. In terms of temporal variations of wind speed, all the models could reasonably predict the seasonal variations of wind speed, whereas only three NWP models were able to capture the characteristics of the observed diurnal variation. An error decomposition analysis further revealed that the primary source of predicted error for wind speed was the sequence error component (SEQU), indicating the model errors were mainly attributed from the temporal inconsistency between forecasts and observations. Furthermore, the occurrences of wind ramps were generally underestimated by NWP models, while this shortcoming can be partly overcome by improving the time resolution of NWP models.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142561644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}