Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology最新文献

{"title":"Moderating effects of self-defined sexual orientation on the relation between social factors and depressive symptoms or suicidal ideation among French young adults.","authors":"Junko Kose, Camille Davisse-Paturet, Anne Pastorello, Laurence Meyer, Maria Melchior, Cécile Vuillermoz, Alexandra Rouquette","doi":"10.1007/s00127-025-02951-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00127-025-02951-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>Disparities in mental health across sexual orientation groups and among young adults have long been discussed. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to investigate the moderating effects of sexual orientation on the associations between social factors and depressive symptoms as well as suicidal ideation in young adults.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The study included 6,337 participants aged 18-25y in 2022 from the French EpiCov cohort. The outcome variables were depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation. Poisson regressions with robust error variance were performed to investigate the associations between social factors and outcomes according to sexual orientation (lesbian, gay, bisexual, other, or not defining themselves according to their sexuality: sexual minority (SM); heterosexual or not wishing to answer: Not belonging to SM (NSM)).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The prevalence of depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation was higher in the SM than in the NSM group. Regarding depressive symptoms, significant moderating effects of sexual orientation were observed for female vs male sex (NSM: adjusted Prevalence Ratio (aPR) 1.58[1.28-1.95], SM: aPR 1.03[0.78-1.36]) and age category 22-25y vs 18-21y (NSM: aPR 1.32[1.05-1.67], SM: aPR 0.78[0.59-1.03]). Regarding suicidal ideation, significant moderating effect was observed for not being vs being in a relationship (NSM: aPR 1.55[1.14-2.12], SM: aPR 0.82[0.59-1.13]).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>In this study conducted in 2022, well-known social risk factors of mental problems do not explain the higher prevalence of depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation among young SM group. Further studies are needed to understand the specific challenges faced by these young people.</p>","PeriodicalId":49510,"journal":{"name":"Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2455-2468"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12449324/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144477553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The relationship between social isolation, depressive symptoms and cognitive function in older adults: a longitudinal mediation study in China.","authors":"Kerui Wang, Yinuo Zhou, Shaohui Su, Xin Jin, Lei Lei, Hao Ma, Aonan Liu, Yanfang Yang","doi":"10.1007/s00127-025-02837-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00127-025-02837-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>Both social isolation and cognitive impairment are important public health issues that affect the quality of life of older adults. Our study aims to clarify the direction of their relationship and to illustrate the mediating role played by depressive symptoms.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data from 5399 respondents who participated in three longitudinal surveys in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) were analyzed. Cross-lagged panel model was used to determine the longitudinal relationship between social isolation, depressive symptoms, and cognitive function.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>After controlling for confounders, higher levels of social isolation predicted subsequent more severe cognitive function score (wave1-wave2: β = - 0.039, SE = 0.015, P = 0.009; wave2-wave3: β = - 0.057, SE = 0.017, P = 0.001), and 37.5% of this effect was mediated through depressive symptoms (β = - 0.002, SE = 0.001, P = 0.022). Similarly, lower cognitive function predicted subsequent higher social isolation (wave1-wave2: β = - 0.062, SE = 0.014, P < 0.001; wave2-wave3: β = - 0.039, SE = 0.015, P = 0.009), but depressive symptoms did not play a mediating role in this process (β = - 0.001, SE = 0.001, P = 0.072).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>There is a potential bidirectional relationship between social isolation and cognitive function in which depressive symptoms play a partially mediating role.</p>","PeriodicalId":49510,"journal":{"name":"Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2377-2386"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143460438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combat exposure, social support, and posttraumatic stress: a longitudinal test of the stress-buffering hypothesis among veterans of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.","authors":"Zoe Bridges-Curry, Samantha J Meckes, Caitlin Fountain, H Ryan Wagner, Patrick S Calhoun, Nathan A Kimbrel, Jared A Rowland, Eric A Dedert, Gabriella T Ponzini","doi":"10.1007/s00127-025-02864-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00127-025-02864-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>While social support is widely viewed as a protective factor against posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), few studies have directly tested whether social support buffers the long-term effects of pre-existing PTSD symptoms or baseline combat exposure among Veterans (i.e., the stress-buffering hypothesis).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>To address this gap, the current study tested perceived social support as a moderator of the effects of baseline PTSD symptoms and combat exposure on PTSD symptoms at 10-year follow up in a sample of post-911 Veterans (N = 783).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Higher levels of combat exposure and baseline PTSD symptoms predicted elevated PTSD symptoms at 10-year follow-up. Perceived social support moderated these effects, such that the impacts of baseline symptoms and combat exposure were attenuated for Veterans with high levels of perceived support. However, buffering effects were less evident at higher levels of combat exposure and were not significant at very high levels of baseline PTSD symptoms.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>While findings are broadly consistent with the stress-buffering hypothesis, results of the present study suggest that the benefits of perceived social support may be less evident at higher levels of combat exposure. Results also offer preliminary evidence that perceived social support is less protective for Veterans with severe pre-existing symptoms.</p>","PeriodicalId":49510,"journal":{"name":"Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2495-2504"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143651819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Moderate and severe depression increase the incidence of cholelithiasis: Results from Mendelian randomization study and the NHANES 2017-March 2020.","authors":"Mingxiu Ma, Kailing Xie, Tianqiang Jin, Feng Xu","doi":"10.1007/s00127-025-02843-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00127-025-02843-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Depression may be a contributing factor to cholelithiasis. However, the exact correlation between cholelithiasis and depression severity remains unclear.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>First, a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to validate previous research findings, utilizing separate datasets for major depressive disorder (MDD) and cholelithiasis. The MDD dataset (135,458 cases, 344,901 controls) came from a published GWAS, and cholelithiasis data (19,023 cases, 195,144 controls) were sourced from FinnGen. The primary analytical approach for the MR study was the inverse variance weighting (IVW) method. Second, an observational study based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) was conducted to explore the relationship between the severity of depression and cholelithiasis. 7071 participants were included in the observational study in total. Depression severity (no, mild, moderate, severe) was measured by Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9). Weighted multivariable-adjusted logistic regression was employed to assess the association between depression severity and cholelithiasis.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In the MR study, the IVW analysis revealed that MDD may increase the risk of cholelithiasis (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07-1.45, P = 0.004). The observational study showed that moderate (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.11, p = 0.037) and severe (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, p = 0.044) depression rises the incidence of cholelithiasis. However, no significant association was found between mild depression and cholelithiasis (p = 0.275).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Moderate and severe depression might rise the incidence of cholelithiasis, while mild depression may not. Further validation through prospective studies is necessary.</p>","PeriodicalId":49510,"journal":{"name":"Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2487-2493"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143469780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Epidemiology of adult separation anxiety disorder in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: results from the Saudi National Mental Health Survey.","authors":"Saber Yezli, Norah Albedah, Lisa Bilal, Dan J Stein, Abdulhameed Al-Habeeb, Abdullah Al-Subaie, Yasmin Altwaijri","doi":"10.1007/s00127-025-02882-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00127-025-02882-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>Adult separation anxiety disorder (ASAD) is thought to be prevalent and debilitating, yet many aspects of its epidemiology remain unclear. We aimed to investigate prevalence, course, correlates, comorbidity, impairment, and treatment of ASAD in Saudi Arabia.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The study analyzed a subset of 1793 participants from the Saudi National Mental Health Survey; a nationally representative household sample of Saudi citizens. The survey used the CIDI 3.0 to produce prevalence estimates of ASAD and other common DSM-IV mental disorders. Cross tabulations, survival analysis and logistic regression were used to analyse the data.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The lifetime and 12-month prevalence of ASAD were 7.6% and 3.8%, respectively. Over half (51.7%) of participants with lifetime ASAD had onset in adulthood, and 50.5% of those with lifetime ASAD also had 12-month ASAD. Lifetime ASAD was significantly associated with being female (OR = 2.1), not being married (ORs = 2.2-3.2), having low education (OR = 0.4), and maladaptive family functioning (ORs = 3.6-6.7). Primary lifetime ASAD was a strong predictor of subsequent other mental disorders (ORs = 1.1-6.5). Further, mood, impulse, and substance use disorders were significantly associated with subsequent first onset of ASAD (ORs = 2.15-3.0). ASAD was severely impairing in the presence (59.0%) or absence (56.2%) of 12-month comorbidity. Among those with lifetime ASAD, only 26.1% reported treatment for a mental health condition.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>ASAD is prevalent, with a persistent course and associated impairment, as well as substantial comorbidity and limited treatment in Saudi Arabia. Increasing awareness, early diagnosis, and treatment of ASAD may help reduce its burden.</p>","PeriodicalId":49510,"journal":{"name":"Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2429-2439"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12449411/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143651820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Return to work after sick leave due to mental illness - a qualitative study on the perspective of workplace integration managers.","authors":"Anna Pelizäus, Martina Geipel, Johannes Hamann","doi":"10.1007/s00127-025-02906-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00127-025-02906-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background and aim: </strong>Increasing numbers of people are unable to work due to mental illness and this is an increasing problem on both a personal and societal level. In Germany, a workplace integration management system (BEM) has been legally required since 2004 to support return to work (RTW). However, its uptake and success, especially regarding mental illnesses, is still unclear. This study was conducted to identify the current state of RTW after episodes of mental illnesses from the perspective of workplace integration managers and explore potential barriers and facilitators that influence the course and outcome of the BEM process.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Semi-structured interviews with BEM managers (N = 14) from the greater Munich area were performed and analyzed using Thematic Analysis.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In their work, BEM managers tend to find themselves in a field of tension between the personal concerns of returning employees and the employer's business interests. They experience mistrust and lack of openness on the part of the returnees, while employers show little willingness to fully invest in the process. Lack of or incorrect information about BEM and on mental illness seems to promote these disruptive factors, as well as others.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Broad education on BEM appears to be a promising means to reduce fear among returnees and to better reach the processes potential. In addition, a more open approach to mental illness could simplify the process for all involved.</p>","PeriodicalId":49510,"journal":{"name":"Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2339-2347"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12449415/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144037198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring ageism and ageing anxiety: a cross-sectional study in Egypt.","authors":"Alaa S Abdelkader, Rana Elbayar, Aya Ahmed Ashour, Mariam M Alwerdani, Abdallah Elgabry, Sara A Hashish, Ayat Ashour","doi":"10.1007/s00127-025-02846-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00127-025-02846-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Ageism and ageing anxiety are obstacles to health equity in the community. This study aims to assess ageism and ageing anxiety in Egypt and to elaborate on factors associated with ageism among Egyptians.</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>We conducted a cross-sectional online survey on 359 adult Egyptians using a predesigned questionnaire to assess socio-demographic factors, the Fraboni Scale on Ageism (FSA), the Ageing Anxiety Scale (AAS), one question about contact with older adults, and another question about religiosity.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The mean age of respondents was 27.91 years (SD = 8.99), with over half aged between 18 and 25 years, and the majority being women (68%). The mean total score of ageism was 72.79 (6.3) out of 116, while the mean total score of anxiety of ageing was 54.33 (8.83) out of 100. Male gender (B = 0.117, p = 0.024), infrequent contact with older adults (B = 0.163, p = 0.002), ageing anxiety (B = 0.238, p = 0.000), and insufficient income (B = 0.202, p = 0.007) were associated with increased ageism scores.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The observed associations between ageism and factors such as male gender, infrequent contact with older adults, insufficient income, and ageing anxiety highlight the potential need for focused educational initiatives. Implementing comprehensive educational programs that not only inform individuals about the ageing process but also promote positive intergenerational interactions could serve as a promising strategy to combat ageism.</p>","PeriodicalId":49510,"journal":{"name":"Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2419-2427"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12449430/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143568675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Conceptualising workplace loneliness: a qualitative investigation with UK workers.","authors":"Bridget T Bryan, Elena Triantafillopoulou, Vaughan Parsons, Louise Arseneault, Timothy Matthews","doi":"10.1007/s00127-025-02925-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00127-025-02925-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>Loneliness has been identified as an important risk factor for mental health problems, and concern about its impact on workers' health and wellbeing has grown in recent years. While a body of workplace loneliness research is emerging, the degree to which existing definitions of the phenomenon reflect workers' experiences has not been investigated. This study aims to develop an evidence-based conceptualisation of workplace loneliness that can inform future research and interventions aiming to improve workers' mental health and wellbeing.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Semi-structured interviews exploring experiences of social connection, loneliness and work were conducted with a diverse sample of 31 UK-based workers. The interviews were supplemented with a social mapping task. Interview data were analysed inductively using reflexive thematic analysis. Social maps were analysed using a thematic analysis approach informed by a visual semiology framework.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Three themes were identified, in which loneliness was conceptualised as disconnection from (1) colleagues, (2) one's organisation, and (3) society. Across each theme, disconnection and loneliness were experienced as an unfulfilled desire to feel that one's authentic self was understood, valued or belonged as a result of one's work or occupation.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Workplace loneliness comprises not only dissatisfaction with interpersonal relationships at work, but also a sense of disconnection from larger social groups and structures, particularly one's employing organisation and society as a whole. Definitions of workplace loneliness that acknowledge the role of the social and organisational context, as well as professional relationships, are needed to better reflect the lived experience of loneliness at work.</p>","PeriodicalId":49510,"journal":{"name":"Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2325-2337"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12449417/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144112457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Relationships between occupation, attitudes towards mental health problems in the workplace and mental health stigma.","authors":"Gloria Cheung, Amy Ronaldson, Claire Henderson","doi":"10.1007/s00127-025-02927-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00127-025-02927-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>Discrimination against people with mental health problems in the workplace is still prominent. Characteristics of occupations can influence aspects of stigma and attitudes to mental health problems in the workplace context. We investigated occupational differences in mental health stigma, and attitudes to mental health in the workplace.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data from the British Social Attitudes 2015 survey were used. Logistic and linear regression models were conducted to investigate associations between occupational categories, stigma as measured by desire for social distance, and attitudes towards mental health in the workplace.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We found occupational differences in attitudes towards mental health in the workplace, but not in levels of stigma. Compared to managerial and professional workers, lower supervisory and technical workers (group 4), semi-routine and routine workers (group 5) were less likely to believe that paid work is good for mental health (group 4: odds ratio (OR) = 0.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.24-0.61; group 5: OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.24-0.49) and people with depression should return to work when they can do some or most of the job (group 4: OR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.48-0.94; group 5: OR=0.52, 95% CI=0.41-0.66). People in semi-routine and routine occupations were less likely to believe that having schizophrenia should not affect promotion at work (OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.62-0.97) than managerial and professional workers.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our findings reinforce the importance of job characteristics on attitudes to mental health in the workplace. More support is needed for small companies to help them develop mental health policies. Modifications are needed to improve job control and ensure adjustments can be made.</p>","PeriodicalId":49510,"journal":{"name":"Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2301-2310"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144038038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prospective prediction of first onset of major depressive disorder in midlife using machine learning.","authors":"Johannes Massell, Martin Preisig, Marcel Miché, Marie-Pierre F Strippoli, Giorgio Pistis, Roselind Lieb","doi":"10.1007/s00127-025-02942-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00127-025-02942-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>In this paper we leverage machine learning (ML) models to prospectively predict the first onset of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), one of the most common and disabling mental health conditions. While such prediction models hold potential for enabling early interventions, few studies have applied ML approaches to this task, and those that have are heterogeneous in nature. Moreover, the clinical utility of these predictive models remains largely unexamined.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data stemmed from CoLaus|PsyCoLaus, a population-based cohort study. In total, 1350 participants, age 35-66 years without lifetime MDD at baseline participated in the physical and psychiatric baseline and at least one psychiatric follow-up evaluation. Models based on logistic regression, elastic net, random forests, and XGBoost were trained using an extensive array of psychosocial, environmental, biological, and genetic predictors. Discriminative performance, calibration, clinical utility, and individual predictor contributions were assessed using nested cross-validation.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Discriminative performance was comparable between models (areas under the precision-recall curve between 0.36 and 0.38; areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.65 and 0.68). Decision curve analysis suggested clinical utility of logistic regression, elastic net, and random forests for threshold probabilities between 10% and 40%. Across all models, neuroticism, sex, and age were the most important predictors.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Although the prediction models achieved discriminative performance levels above chance, further refinement is necessary. The addition of biological and genetic predictors did not elevate performance markedly. Additional research seems warranted given the limited number and heterogeneous nature of existing studies, the burden associated with MDD, and the potential to improve overall outcomes for people at risk for MDD.</p>","PeriodicalId":49510,"journal":{"name":"Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2387-2400"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12449384/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144327521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}