Weather Climate and Society最新文献

{"title":"Trends in Undergraduate WxChallenge Performance","authors":"Nicholas J. Eckstein, Nathan M. Hitchens, Petra A. Zimmermann","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0102.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0102.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The WxChallenge is a national forecasting competition in which participants at colleges and universities across North America attempt to accurately predict daily high and low temperatures, maximum wind speed, and precipitation accumulation at a variety of locations each year. Undergraduate students make up the majority of participants. In this study we observed trends from 11 seasons of WxChallenge data and related them to existing literature on local forecasting contests. Normalized scores were calculated each day for any participant that submitted a forecast. On average, undergraduate scores improved with continued participation in the contest. Significant gains are made during their first year by forecasters who participated for multiple years. While duration of participation in the contest plays a role, significant improvements in performance were also noted with higher academic standing, potentially due to forecasting experience gained through other curricular or extracurricular activities.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42656032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trial by Fire: Support for Mitigation and Adaptation Policy after the 2020 Oregon Wildfires","authors":"Leanne S. Giordono, Muhammad Usman Amin Siddiqi, Gregory Stelmach, Chad Zanocco, June Flora, Hilary S. Boudet","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0075.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0075.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The September 2020 Oregon wildfires were unprecedented in terms of their geographic scope and the number of communities affected by smoke and wildfire. Though it is difficult to directly attribute the event to climate change, scientists have noted the strong connection between warmer and drier conditions in the Western U.S. – conditions that are linked to climate change – and increasing wildfire risk. These wildfires thus had the potential to act as a “focusing event,” potentially strengthening public support for climate change policy. Political ideology is a well-known driver of public support for climate change mitigation policies in the U.S., but few studies have examined adaptation policy support. Moreover, other factors shaping post-event support for the two “pillars” of climate change policy—adaptation and mitigation—have rarely been compared. We conducted a survey of Oregonians within 6 months of the 2020 wildfires (n=1,308) to understand post-event support for climate mitigation and adaptation policies. We found that the magnitude of the association between political ideology and policy support was lower for adaptation policies than mitigation policy and there was no association with support for forest management changes. In contrast, selected socio-demographic characteristics played a more important role in support for selected adaptation policies than mitigation policy.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45079800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change impacts on subsistence paddy farming in Indian East Coast: A Geospatial and Community Perception Assessment","authors":"Anirban Kundu, Sayani Mukhopadhyay, P. Basu","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-21-0175.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-21-0175.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Impact of climate change on subsistence agriculture is a major concern in the developing world. The vulnerability of the coastal regions to climate change has been highlighted in particular. The present study assessed the impact of climate change on subsistence rice farming in Eastern Indian coast using an integrated approach of statistical trend analysis by Mann Kendall’s Test and Sen’s Slope Estimation of climate data, remote sense-based land cover analyses using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) complemented by questionnaire-based perception survey among the farming community. There has been noticeable change in both ambient temperature and LST in the region. Delayed arrival of monsoon critically impacts the cropping calendar. The crop harvest season has shifted further into a time of the year that is prone to weather extremes. Analyses of NDVI and NDWI also indicate shift in cropping calendar. Over years, there was increasing degree of negative correlation between LST and NDVI in November which indicates increasing water stress for crops in that time juncture. This may further cause crop sterility and yield loss. The study also reveals large scale conversion of paddy growing agricultural land into prawn aquaculture ponds. Farmers attributed such landuse change to cultivation stress caused by delayed monsoon and consequent crop loss from weather extremes and changes in crop agronomic conditions. Farmers also report increased pest attack and attribute that to increasing temperature regime.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47055310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lives Saved vs Time Lost: Direct Societal Benefits of Probabilistic Tornado Warnings","authors":"A. Ugarov","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0139.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0139.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000National Weather Service is planning to implement the system of probabilistic tornado warnings. In this paper, we estimate and compare full societal costs of tornadoes with existing deterministic and potential probabilistic warnings. These full costs include the value of statistical lives lost as well as the value of the time spent sheltering. We find that probabilistic tornado warnings would decrease total expected fatalities. The improvement in decision-making would also decrease the total opportunity cost of time spent sheltering even though the total sheltering time is likely to increase. In total, probabilistic warnings should lower societal costs of tornadoes relative to deterministic warnings by approximately $76-139 million per year with a large portion of this improvement coming from lower casualties.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48462034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"User selection and engagement for climate services co-production","authors":"E. Baulenas, D. Bojovic, D. Urquiza, M. Terrado, S. Pickard, N. Gonzalez, A. L. St.Clair","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0112.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0112.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Climate services are high in the international agenda for their potential to help combat the effects of climate change. However, climate science is rarely directly incorporated in the decision-making processes of societal actors, due to what has been identified as the usability gap. The cause behind this gap is partially due to a failure to timely and meaningfully engage users in the production of climate services, as well as misperceptions on which users can best benefit from climate service uptake. In this article we propose user selection and engagement guidelines that integrate important values from participatory science such as those of legitimacy, representativity and agency. The guidelines consist of 5 + 1 steps: defining the why, where, whom, which attributes, which intensity, and how to select and engage with stakeholders. Whilst these steps may be initially implemented by an ideally interdisciplinary team of scientists and service designers, the final step consists of an iterative process by which each decision is agreed together with the identified users and stakeholders under a co-production approach. We believe this systematic user selection and engagement practice is key to support the design of climate services aligned to the actual needs of a wide and inclusive range of empowered societal agents.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47816223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Visualizing Uncertainty in Hurricane Forecasts with Animated Risk Trajectories","authors":"J. Witt, Z. Labe, Amelia C Warden, Benjamin A. Clegg","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-21-0173.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-21-0173.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Hurricane forecasts are often communicated through visualizations depicting the possible future track of the storm. The Cone of Uncertainty (COU) is a commonly used visualization, but the graphic is prone to misinterpretation such as thinking only locations contained within the cone’s boundary are at risk. In this study, we investigated the utility of conveying hurricane forecast tracks using a set of animated icons, each representing an instance of a possible storm path. We refer to this new visualization as Animated Risk Trajectories (ARTs). We measured non-experts’ perception of risk when viewing simplified, hypothetical hurricane forecasts presented as ARTs or COUs. To measure perception of risk for each visualization type, we designed experiments to have participants make decisions to evacuate individual towns at varying distances from the most likely forecast path of a storm. The ARTs led to greater risk perception in areas that fell beyond the cone’s boundaries. Non-experts’ interpretation of risk was impacted by the visual properties of the ARTs, such as the distribution of the icons, including their density and whether the distribution was unimodal or bimodal. This supports the suggestion that ARTs can have value in communicating spatial-temporal uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47875739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spring snowpack influences in the volume and timing of spring and peak season overnight visitation to Yosemite Wilderness","authors":"","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0099.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0099.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Wilderness visitation, particularly overnight use, is reactive to climate variability as backpackers face greater exposure to and dependence on environmental conditions. This study examines the effect that spring snowpack has on the timing and volume of permits issued for overnight use of the Yosemite Wilderness during peak and shoulder season months (April-October) from 2002-2019. We categorize April 1st snowpack at Tuolumne Meadows into snow drought (<75%), high snowpack (>125%), and near average snowpack (75-125%). Results confirm Wilderness-wide differences between snowpack categories, including change in spring overnight visitors (April-June: +20% snow drought, −28% high snowpack). Our findings confirm that snow drought allows for more access to high elevation trailheads when seasonal roads are open earlier in spring (May-June: +74% Tioga Road, +81% Tuolumne Meadows). Mid-to-high elevation trailheads experience a sustained increase in use during high snowpack years (June-October: +12% Yosemite Valley and Big Oak Flat, +15% Glacier Point Road and Wawona; +32% Hetch Hetchy) as a narrower seasonal access window leads to filled permit quotas in the high country and displaces use to lower elevation trailheads. These findings have implications for wilderness stewards, including biophysical and experiential impacts to wilderness character from earlier and longer seasons, especially at higher elevation and fragile alpine and sub-alpine areas, as snow drought in mountain protected areas becomes more common. Recommendations to address greater early season use and its attendant impacts include adaptively managing permits for different types of snowpack years, including potential changes in the number, timing, and destination of select trailhead quotas.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46000020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Change, Fish Production, and Maritime Piracy","authors":"Bo Jiang, G. LaFree","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-21-0147.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-21-0147.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Contemporary social science has produced little research on connections between climate change and crime. Nonetheless, much prior research suggests that economic insecurity may affect individual calculations of the cost and benefit of engaging in criminal behavior, and climate change is likely to have important economic consequences for professions like fishing that depend directly on the environment. In this paper, we test the possibility that climate change affects participation in maritime piracy, depending on the specific ways that it impacts regional fish production. Our analysis is based on piracy in East Africa and the South China Sea. These two regions are strategic in that both areas have experienced a large amount of piracy; however, rising sea temperatures have been associated with declines in fish production in East Africa but increases in the South China Sea. We treat sea surface temperature as an instrument for fish output and find that in East Africa higher sea surface temperature is associated with declining fish production, which in turn increases the risk of piracy, whereas in the South China Sea higher sea surface temperature is associated with increasing fish production, which in turn decreases the risk of piracy. Our results also show that decreases in fish production bring about a larger number of successful piracy attacks in East Africa and that increases in fish production are associated with fewer successful attacks in the South China Sea. We discuss the theoretical and policy implications of the findings and point out that as climate change continues, its impact on specific crimes will likely be complex, with increases and decreases depending on context.\u0000\u0000\u0000There is little evidence on the effect of climate change on criminal behavior. This study seeks to quantify the impact of a specific type of climate change—rising sea temperature—on maritime piracy, a type of crime that is linked exclusively to the ocean. The risk of piracy attacks and the probability of successful attacks are higher with declines in fish production in East Africa and lower with increases in fish production in the South China Sea. These results suggest that climate change does affect maritime piracy rates and that its effect depends on the specific situational context and the rational choices that changing sea temperatures generate.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49415752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"“I'm fixing a hole where the rain gets in, and stops my mind from wandering”: approaching sustainable climate change adaptations","authors":"C. Aall, Christiane Meyer-Habighorst, Irmelin Gram-Hanssen, Mari Hanssen Korsbrekke, G. Hovelsrud","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0113.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0113.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Sustainable development is a challenging field of research, colored by the paradoxes of modernity and development, and the tradeoffs involved in balancing the ‘sustainable’ and ‘development’ side of the various sustainable development goals. We must take these overarching challenges into account when entering a more specific discussion of what a concept of sustainable climate change adaptation may entail. This article reviews the history of this concept, including insights provided by the 10 recent publications in a special collection of WCAS on the topic of sustainable climate change adaptation. This collection reflects on why and how the term sustainable development should be included in our understandings of and efforts towards climate change adaptation and proposes a preliminary framework for distinguishing between conventional and sustainable adaptation.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49635096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Communicating about Extreme Heat: Results from Card Sorting and Think Aloud Interviews with Experts from Differing Domains","authors":"Jeannette Sutton, Nicholas Waugh, Savannah Olivas","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0108.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0108.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Climate trends indicate that extreme heat events are becoming more common and more severe over time, requiring improved strategies to communicate heat risk and protective actions. However, there exists a disconnect in heat-related communication from experts, who commonly include heat related jargon (i.e., technical language), to decision makers and the general public. The use of jargon has been shown to reduce meaningful engagement with and understanding of messages written by experts. Translating technical language into comprehensible messages that encourage decision makers to take action has been identified as a priority to enable impact-based decision support. Knowing what concepts and terms are perceived as jargon, and why, is a first step to increasing communication effectiveness. With this in mind, we focus on the mental models about extreme heat among two groups of domain experts –those trained in atmospheric science and those trained in emergency management to identify how each group understands terms and concepts about extreme heat. We use a hybrid data collection method of open card sorting and think-aloud interviews to identify how participants conceptualize and categorize terms and concepts related to extreme heat. While we find few differences within the sorted categories, we learn that the processes leading to decisions about the importance of including, or not including, technical information differs by group. The results lead to recommendations and priorities for communicating about extreme heat.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43756168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}