Weather Climate and Society最新文献

{"title":"Density altitude: Climatology of Daily Maximum Values and Evaluation of Approximations for General Aviation","authors":"Daniel J. Halperin, Thomas A. Guinn, S. Strazzo, Robert L. Thomas","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0026.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0026.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Density altitude (DA) is an aviation parameter that helps determine specific aircraft performance characteristics for the expected atmospheric conditions. However, there are currently no detailed graphical tools for general aviation (GA) pilot education demonstrating the spatial and temporal variation of DA to help improve situational awareness. In this study, the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate (ERA5) dataset is used to construct a 30-year monthly climatology of DA for the conterminous United States. Several DA characteristics are also investigated, including the effect of water vapor on DA, the determination of reasonable worst-case conditions, and the applicability of two DA rules-of-thumb (ROTs). Maximum values of DA (worst aircraft performance) occur during July reaching 3,600 m over areas with high surface elevations. Humidity, while tertiary to the effects of temperature and pressure, cause the DA to increase from their dry values by more than 140 m as far north as the U.S./Canada border. The dry DA ROT performs well for all conditions outside of strong tropical cyclones, where GA flights would not be expected. The ROT to correct for the effects of water vapor performs well except in high elevations or when the dew point temperatures fall outside the applicable range of ≥5°C. When applied outside this range, in some situations, DA errors can be greater than if no humidity correction were applied. Therefore, a new humidity ROT is introduced here which extends the applicable dew point temperature range to ≥-28°C and reduces DA errors.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41573128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Possible role of the regional NDVI in the expansion of the Chiefdom of Lijiang during the Ming Dynasty as reflected by tree ring","authors":"Yaqun Liang, Youping Chen, F. Chen, Heli Zhang","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-21-0144.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-21-0144.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Although many studies have linked complex social processes with climate change, few have examined the connections between changes in environmental factors, resources, or energy and the evolution of civilizations on the Tibetan Plateau. The Chiefdom of Lijiang was a powerful chiefdom located on the eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Ming Dynasty; it began expanding after the 1460s. Although many studies have analyzed the political and economic motivations responsible for this expansion, no high-resolution climate records representing this period of the Chiefdom of Lijiang were available until now. Here, we obtain a 621-year reconstruction of the April-July normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values derived from moisture-sensitive tree rings from the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Our NDVI reconstruction accounts for 40.4% of the variability in instrumentally measured NDVI values and can effectively represent the historical changes in regional vegetation productivity that occurred on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. In combination with a reconstruction of summer temperatures on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, these results reveal that the regional climate was relatively warm and persistently wet during the period 1466-1630. This period was characterized by long periods of above-mean vegetation productivity on the eastern Tibetan Plateau that coincided with the expansion of the Chiefdom of Lijiang. We therefore propose that the NDVI anomaly and associated favourable political environment may affected the expansion of the Chiefdom of Lijiang. Instrumental climate data and tree rings also reveal that the early 21st-century drought on the eastern Tibetan Plateau was the hottest drought recorded over the past six centuries, in accordance with projections of warming over the Tibetan Plateau. Future climate warming may lead to the occurrence of similar droughts, with potentially severe consequences for modern Asia.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45194022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting U.S. Nocturnal Tornado Vulnerability and its Influence on Tornado Impacts","authors":"Stephen M. Strader, Walker S. Ashley, Alex M. Haberlie, Kristie Kaminski","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0020.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0020.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This research examines tornadoes and their fatalities by light condition (i.e., daytime and nighttime) for the United States. The study has two primary objectives: 1) catalog and reassess differences in daytime and nighttime, or nocturnal, tornadoes and their fatalities from spatial and temporal perspectives; 2) employ a spatially explicit Monte Carlo simulation technique to calculate differences in daytime and nocturnal tornado-population impact potential by combining climatological tornado risk data with fine-scale, gridded estimates of day and night population density. Results reveal that nocturnal tornadoes remain a substantial impediment to mitigating tornado casualties despite long-term improvements in detection and warning of these events. Nocturnal tornadoes are nearly twice as deadly as daytime events, with fatalities stemming from overnight (i.e., local midnight to sunrise) tornadoes increasing fourfold since the late 19th century. The proportion of all tornado fatalities that occurred during daytime hours has decreased 20% over the last 140 years, while the nocturnal fatality proportion has increased 20%. The stall, or even slight growth, in U.S. tornado mortality rates over the last 30 years has, at least in part, been driven by increasing nocturnal tornado fatalities. Overall, nocturnal tornadoes affect 13% more people on average compared to daytime tornadoes, revealing the importance of time of day in mitigating tornado-population impacts and disasters. Emergency managers, forecasters, first responders, policy makers, and researchers should continue to focus efforts on understanding nocturnal tornadoes, especially regarding how populations receive warnings and respond to these nocturnal threats.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47203127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drivers of Household Risk Perceptions and Adjustment Intentions to Tornado Hazards in Oklahoma","authors":"Yueqi Li, Hao-Che Wu, A. Greer, David Huntsman","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0018.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0018.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Tornadoes are responsible for considerable property damage and loss of life across the state of Oklahoma. While several studies have explored drivers of tornado adjustment behaviors, their results are not consistent in terms of their significance and direction. To address this shortcoming in the literature, we surveyed households using a disproportionate stratified sampling procedure from counties in Oklahoma that frequently experience tornado threats to explore drivers of adjustments. We used Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to explore relationships among variables highlighted in the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and related literature that affect adjustment intentions and risk perceptions. Overall, we found the factors highlighted in the PMT are effective at explaining households’ intentions of adopting adjustment behaviors associated with tornado hazards. Threat appraisals, however, were less important than coping appraisals in explaining tornado hazard adjustment intentions. In further analysis, we grouped adjustments as 1) basic (e.g., flashlight, food and water supply) and 2) complex (e.g., insurance, storm shelter), and found that while coping appraisals are significant drivers of both adjustment categories, the effect of threat appraisals is only significant for complex adjustment intentions. We also found that emotional responses to hazards are major drivers of threat appraisals, stronger than perceived knowledge and hazard salience. Moreover, we found that demographic characteristics affect both adjustment intentions and threat appraisals. The additions to the PMT and categorization of adjustment activities improve our understanding of the PMT in different contexts. Such insights provide scholars and emergency managers with strategies for risk communication efforts.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47079021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Formalizing Trust in Historical Weather Data","authors":"R. Sieber, V. Slonosky, Linden Ashcroft, Christa Pudmenzky","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-21-0077.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-21-0077.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Historical instrumental weather observations are vital to understanding past, present, and future climate variability and change. However, the quantity of historical weather observations to be rescued globally far exceeds the resources available to do the rescuing. Which observations should be prioritized?\u0000Here we formalize guidelines help make decision on rescuing historical data. Rather than wait until resource-intensive digitization is done to assess the data’s value, insights can be gleaned from the context in which the observations were made and the history of the observers. Further insights can be gained from the transcription platforms used and the transcribers involved in the data rescue process, without which even the best historical observations can be mishandled. We use the concept of trust to help integrate and formalize the guidelines across the lifecycle of data rescue, from the original observation source to the transcribed data element. Five cases of citizen science-based historical data rescue, two from Canada and three from Australia, guide us in constructing a trust checklist. The checklist assembles information from the original observers and their observations to the current transcribers and transcription approaches they use. Nineteen elements are generated to help future data rescue projects answer the question of whether resources should be devoted to rescuing historical meteorological material under consideration.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43116760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sociodemographic factors associated with heatwave risk perception in the United States","authors":"F. Schoessow, Yajie Li, J. Marlon, A. Leiserowitz, P. Howe","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-21-0104.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-21-0104.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Extreme heat events are one of the deadliest weather-related hazards in the United States and are increasing in frequency and severity due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Further, some subpopulations may be more vulnerable than others due to social, economic, and political factors that create disparities in hazard impacts and responses. Vulnerability is also affected by risk perceptions, which can influence protective behaviors. In this study, we use national survey data to investigate the association of key sociodemographic factors with public risk perceptions of heat waves. We find that risk perceptions are most associated with income, race/ethnicity, gender, and disability status. Age, an important predictor of heat mortality, had smaller associations with heat risk perceptions. Low-income, non-white, and disabled individuals tend to perceive themselves to be at greater risks from heat waves than other subpopulations, corresponding with their elevated risk. Men have lower risk perceptions than women despite their higher mortality and morbidity from heat. This study helps to identify subpopulations in the U.S. who see themselves as at risk from extreme heat and can inform heat risk communication and other risk reduction practices.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48467423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Evaluation of Flood Fatalities in Nigeria","authors":"T. Ologunorisa, A. Eludoyin, Bola Lateef","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-21-0168.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-21-0168.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Flood-induced fatalities are among the more poorly reported effects of flood disasters in many developing countries because of poor data inventory and management. Specific objectives of this study are to assess the spatial and temporal variations in flood fatalities in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. The study explored available datasets from the National (Nigerian) Meteorological and Emergency Management Agencies as well as those from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) at the University of Colorado Boulder and complemented those with scattered reports from Nigerian newspapers to achieve the stated objectives. Using a mix of statistical and geographical information analysis approaches, the study showed that most of Nigeria is vulnerable to flood, given the nature of the dominant climate that often results in “medium” to “high” rainfall intensity (i.e., rainfall = 38.1–50.1 mm or > 50.1 mm in 24 h, respectively), inadequate settlement planning/land-use and land-cover management, and dam failure. Analysis of the frequency of the flood–fatality relationship indicates an increase in flood fatalities by 4.7% relative to flood cases between 1985 and 2017. The study complemented the results with information from newspapers and some other non-peer-reviewed documents (especially reports from relevant agencies) and revealed the need for a better flood information management system in the country, especially since the national database and DFO records were not the same. The study concluded that flood fatalities are on the increase but are poorly reported. It thus recommends improved information systems for flood and other disasters and their fatalities in the country.\u0000\u0000\u0000The purpose of this study is to reveal the state of information on flood disasters in a typical sub-Saharan African country. This is important because information about the distribution and trend of fatalities associated with flood disasters is required for sustainable mitigation planning globally. Our results provide a guide to understanding the distribution and associated factors of flood disasters as well as the contributions of informal (newspaper) sources to the inventory of relevant records.\u0000","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46369936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the Impact of Weather Conditions and Time of Day on Traffic Flow Characteristics","authors":"Aleksandra Romanowska, M. Budzynski","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0012.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0012.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Adverse weather such as rain, snow, and fog may significantly reduce visibility or change adhesion properties and, as a consequence, affect drivers’ sense of safety, driving comfort, and their reaction to a changing driving environment (i.e., lower speed and increased headways). The changed behavior of individual drivers affects both traffic flow characteristics, that is, average speed and headways, and parameters related to highway performance such as free-flow speed and capacity. Thus, understanding the impact may be important in the context of predicting and assessing traffic conditions on planned or existing road facilities. The paper discusses the effects of adverse weather conditions and time of day on traffic flow characteristics and the parameters related to highway performance. Using real traffic and weather data from a Polish expressway, the paper aims to identify factors related to weather and time of day that significantly influence traffic flow parameters and traffic conditions and to analyze and quantify this impact. The results of the study may help to develop coefficients of weather-related adjustment factors that will make it possible to estimate, for example, average speed of vehicles in the nighttime or in conditions of rain or limited visibility. The results of the study may contribute to a new Polish method for capacity estimation and traffic conditions assessment for uninterrupted traffic facilities.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44459524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"To Warn or Not to Warn: Factors Influencing National Weather Service Warning Meteorologists’ Tornado Warning Decisions","authors":"Jiyoun Kim, Anita Atwell Seate, B. Liu, Daniel P. Hawblitzel, T. Funk","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-20-0115.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-20-0115.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Weather warnings are critical risk communication messages because they have the potential to save lives and property during emergencies. However, making warning decisions is challenging. While there have been significant advances in technological weather forecasting, recent research suggests that social factors, including communication, influence warning meteorologists’ decisions to warn. We examine the roles of both scientific and social factors in predicting warning meteorologists’ decisions to warn on tornadoes. To do so, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of National Weather Service forecasters and members of management in the southern and the central regions of the United States, as well as conducted a retrospective data analysis of cross-sectional survey data from the central region Tornado Warning Improvement Project. Results reveal that dependency on radar velocity couplet and a variety of social factors predicted decisions to warn.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48057268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate–Urban Nexus: A Study of Vulnerable Women in Urban Areas of KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa","authors":"S. Hlahla, M. D. Simatele, T. Hill, T. Mabhaudhi","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-20-0180.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-20-0180.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The changes in climatic conditions and their associated impacts are contributing to a worsening of existing gender inequalities and a heightening of women’s socioeconomic vulnerabilities in South Africa. Using data collected by research methods inspired by the tradition of participatory appraisals, we systematically discuss the impacts of climate change on marginalized women and the ways in which they are actively responding to climate challenges and building their adaptive capacity and resilience in the urban areas of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We argue that changes in climate have both direct and indirect negative impacts on women’s livelihoods and well-being. Less than one-half (37%) of the women reported implementing locally developed coping mechanisms to minimize the impacts of climate-related events, whereas 63% reported lacking any form of formal safety nets to deploy and reduce the impacts of climate-induced shocks and stresses. The lack of proactive and gender-sensitive local climate change policies and strategies creates socioeconomic and political barriers that limit the meaningful participation of women in issues that affect them and marginalize them in the climate change discourses and decision-making processes, thereby hampering their efforts to adapt and reduce existing vulnerabilities. Thus, we advocate for the creation of an enabling environment to develop and adopt progendered, cost-effective, transformative, and sustainable climate change policies and adaptation strategies that are responsive to the needs of vulnerable groups (women) of people in society. This will serve to build their adaptive capacity and resilience to climate variability and climate change–related risks and hazards.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46886515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}