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On the risk efficiency of a weather index insurance product for the Brazilian semi-arid region 巴西半干旱地区天气指数保险产品的风险效率研究
4区 地球科学
Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0079.1
Mateus P. Lavorato, Marcelo J. Braga
{"title":"On the risk efficiency of a weather index insurance product for the Brazilian semi-arid region","authors":"Mateus P. Lavorato, Marcelo J. Braga","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0079.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0079.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Weather index insurance (WII) has long been advertised as a viable alternative to crop yield insurance. WII products were firstly developed to assist climate-vulnerable farmers from developing countries where establishing a well-structured crop insurance market is expressively difficult due to the poor transport infrastructure and the prevalence of sparsely distributed small-scale farms. In Brazil, the semi-arid region stands out as the one that concentrates the ideal conditions for the implementation of a WII product since it houses thousands of climate-vulnerable farmers. With this in mind, we designed and priced a WII product for farmers from the semi-arid region of Brazil and posteriorly investigated its risk efficiency. To do so, we first investigated crop yield responses to aridity, enabling the selection of locations for which the WII product was posteriorly assessed. Second, we grouped selected locations into specific contracts according to geographical proximity and evaluated each of these contracts to attest the risk efficiency of the proposed WII product using the method of stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), which identifies utility efficient alternatives for a range of risk attitudes. Our results show that the WII product may be effective in protecting farmers from adverse variations in production revenue, possibly being attractive for utility-maximizer farmers that are sufficiently risk-averse.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"81 10","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135272872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate Change Driving Salinity an Overview of Vulnerabilities, Adaptations, and Challenges for Indonesian Agriculture 气候变化驱动盐度:印尼农业脆弱性、适应性和挑战概述
4区 地球科学
Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0025.1
Renie Oelviani, Witono Adiyoga, I Gede Mahatma Yuda Bakti, Tota Suhendrata, Afrizal Malik, None Chanifah, None Samijan, Dewi Sahara, Himawan Arif Sutanto, Munir Eti Wulanjari, Budi Utomo, Arif Susila, Ratih Kurnia Jatuningtyas, Yennita Sihombing
{"title":"Climate Change Driving Salinity an Overview of Vulnerabilities, Adaptations, and Challenges for Indonesian Agriculture","authors":"Renie Oelviani, Witono Adiyoga, I Gede Mahatma Yuda Bakti, Tota Suhendrata, Afrizal Malik, None Chanifah, None Samijan, Dewi Sahara, Himawan Arif Sutanto, Munir Eti Wulanjari, Budi Utomo, Arif Susila, Ratih Kurnia Jatuningtyas, Yennita Sihombing","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0025.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0025.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Climate change has negatively affected agricultural productivity in Indonesia. This study aimed to conduct a bibliometric analysis of the literature on soil salinity caused by climate change, discuss the impact of soil salinity on Indonesian agriculture, examine various strategies for adaptation to salinity, and deliver some ideas for future research. An analysis of 39 identified Scopus articles related to farmers' vulnerability, adaptation, and practices was carried out. This study was performed in November 2022 and employed Bibliometrix R-package and VOSviewer software. Findings show that salinity has left Indonesia's agriculture vulnerable to reduced food production, especially for small-scale farmers losing crop yields and land. Various adaptation measures have been initiated, such as restoring soil fertility and using saline-resistant varieties. Irrigation facilities improvements have also been carried out to reduce the risks of soil salinity expansion. Farmers also try social action measures, such as selling assets, borrowing money for daily needs, and even changing jobs. However, farmers to survive and sustain their businesses, any any such measures need to produce satisfactory results. A review of the existing literature reveals a lack of soil salinity studies in Indonesia which simultaneously points to research gaps not only on the issue of the impact of salinity on income and the vulnerability of small farmers but also on the development of adaptation strategies to address salinity due to climate change.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"33 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135373395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Flash drought typologies and societal impacts: a worldwide review of occurrence, nomenclature, and experiences of local populations 突发性干旱的类型和社会影响:全球范围内对发生、命名和当地人口经验的回顾
4区 地球科学
Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0015.1
David W. Walker, Noemi Vergopolan, Louise Cavalcante, Kelly Helm Smith, Sehouevi Mawuton David Agoungbome, André Almagro, Tushar Apurv, Nirmal Mani Dahal, David Hoffmann, Vishal Singh, Zhang Xiang
{"title":"Flash drought typologies and societal impacts: a worldwide review of occurrence, nomenclature, and experiences of local populations","authors":"David W. Walker, Noemi Vergopolan, Louise Cavalcante, Kelly Helm Smith, Sehouevi Mawuton David Agoungbome, André Almagro, Tushar Apurv, Nirmal Mani Dahal, David Hoffmann, Vishal Singh, Zhang Xiang","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0015.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0015.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Flash droughts, characterised by rapid onset and intensification, are increasingly occurring as a consequence of climate change and rising temperatures. However, existing hydrometeorological definitions fail to encompass the full range of flash droughts, many of which have distinct local physical attributes. Consequently, these events often go undetected or unforecast in generic global flash drought assessments and are underrepresented in research. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive survey to gather information on local nomenclature, characteristics, and impacts of flash droughts worldwide. The survey revealed the widespread occurrence of these phenomena, highlighting their under-researched nature. By analysing case studies, through literature review often in local languages to unearth elusive studies, we identified five different types of flash droughts based on their specific characteristics. Our study aims to increase awareness about the complexity and diverse impacts of flash droughts, emphasising the importance of considering regional contexts and the vulnerability of affected populations. The reported impacts underscore the need for better integration of all flash drought types in drought research, monitoring, and management. Monitoring a combination of indicators is crucial for timely detection and response to this emerging and escalating threat.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"184 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136113999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Transformative ecological and human impacts from climate change and diminished sea ice in the northern Bering Sea 气候变化和白令海北部海冰减少对生态和人类的影响
4区 地球科学
Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0029.1
James E. Overland, Elizabeth Siddon, Gay Sheffield, Thomas J. Ballinger, Cody Szuwalski
{"title":"Transformative ecological and human impacts from climate change and diminished sea ice in the northern Bering Sea","authors":"James E. Overland, Elizabeth Siddon, Gay Sheffield, Thomas J. Ballinger, Cody Szuwalski","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0029.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0029.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Our goal is to tie climate scale mete o rology to regional physics and ecosystem changes, and on to human impacts. There was record minimum sea-ice cover during winter 2018 and 2019 in the Bering Sea, with continuing multi-year impacts on the marine ecosystem and human activities. The back-to-back sea-ice minimums during 2018 and 2019 were certainly unexpected, given the normal large year-to-year variability of storms for the northern Bering Sea. Ecological shifts indicated reorganization of the northern marine food web that included loss of sea-ice algae and young crabs, and predatory cod and pollock moving north impacting lower trophic levels. Possible direct impacts from sea-ice loss and warmer temperatures included increased seabird and ice-associated seal emaciation and mortality, and increased harmful algal blooms. These changes affected regional food security, human/wildlife health, cultural activities, and marine wildlife conservation. Global warming initiated these events through a weakened atmospheric Arctic Front that promotes a self-reinforcing cycle of sea-ice loss, warmer temperatures, southerly winds and a wavy jet stream. Resulting impacts to livelihoods in the northern Bering Sea were commercial and non-commercial subsistence acquisition of essential marine resources for sale and direct consumption. Interannual variability is still important; during 2022 and 2023 the Aleutian Low pressure system was regionally dominant and sea ice was near the climatological average. Projections for the next decades are for an increasing frequency of low sea-ice years and a continuing ecosystem transition impacting essential marine wildlife resources and residents of the coastal northern Bering Sea.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136210553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Future Heavy rainfall and flood risks for Native America under climate and demographic changes: A case study in Oklahoma 气候和人口变化下美洲原住民的未来暴雨和洪水风险:以俄克拉荷马州为例
4区 地球科学
Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0005.1
Zhi Li, Theresa Tsoodle, Mengye Chen, Shang Gao, Jiaqi Zhang, Yixin Wen, Tiantian Yang, Farina King, Yang Hong
{"title":"Future Heavy rainfall and flood risks for Native America under climate and demographic changes: A case study in Oklahoma","authors":"Zhi Li, Theresa Tsoodle, Mengye Chen, Shang Gao, Jiaqi Zhang, Yixin Wen, Tiantian Yang, Farina King, Yang Hong","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0005.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0005.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Climate change has posed inequitable risks to different communities. Among communities of color in the US, Native Americans stand out because (1) they desire resources to sustain resilient nations; and (2) they have developed nature-based solutions through experiences with local climate-related challenges, which can provide deep insight for the whole society. Projection of climate risks for Native Americans is essential to assess future risks and support their climate-ready nations; yet, there has been lack of useable information. In this study, we projected three climate hazards – heavy rainfall, two-year floods, flash floods – for tribal nations in Oklahoma. To break down into tribal jurisdictions, we utilize a coupled regional climate model at 4 km and flash flood forecast model at 1 km. A hazard-exposure-vulnerability risk framework is applied to integrate both climate and demographic changes in a high-emissions scenario. It is found that: (1) indigenous people are the most vulnerable community in Oklahoma; (2) heavy rainfall and two-year floods have marked increases in risks at 501.1% and 632.6%, respectively, while flash floods have a moderate increase (296.4%); (3) Native Americans bear 68.0%, 64.3%, and 64.0% higher risks in heavy rainfall, two-year flooding, and flash flooding than general population in Oklahoma; (3) comparing climate and demographic changes, population growth leads to greater climate hazard risks than climate change; and (4) Emerging Tribal Nations are projected to have 10 times more population, resulting in great exposures to climate extremes. This study can raise awareness of the impact of climate changes, and draw attention to address climate injustice issues for minoritized communities.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135096015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Extreme Weather and Emergency Management Survey 极端天气和应急管理调查
4区 地球科学
Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2023-10-04 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0085.1
Anna Wanless, Sam Stormer, Joseph T. Ripberger, Makenzie J. Krocak, Andrew Fox, David Hogg, Hank Jenkins-Smith, Carol Silva, Scott E. Robinson, Warren S. Eller
{"title":"The Extreme Weather and Emergency Management Survey","authors":"Anna Wanless, Sam Stormer, Joseph T. Ripberger, Makenzie J. Krocak, Andrew Fox, David Hogg, Hank Jenkins-Smith, Carol Silva, Scott E. Robinson, Warren S. Eller","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0085.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0085.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters have many roles and responsibilities, including communication with core partners throughout the forecast and warning process to ensure that the information they are providing is relevant, understandable, and actionable. While the NWS communicates to many groups, members of the emergency management community are among the most critical partners. However, little is known about the diverse population of emergency managers (EMs) and how they receive, process, and use forecast information. The Extreme Weather and Emergency Management Survey (WxEM) aims to fill this knowledge gap by (1) building a nationwide panel of EMs and (2) fielding routine surveys that include questions of relevance to NWS operations. The panel was built by creating a database with contact information from more than 4,000 EMs across the country. An enrollment survey was sent to the list, and over 700 EMs agreed to participate in the project. Following enrollment, WxEM panelists receive surveys that address how EMs use NWS forecast information three to four times a year. These surveys cover a variety of subjects, with the goal of working with other researchers to develop surveys that address their research needs. By collaborating with other research groups to design short, focused surveys, the WxEM project will reduce the research burden on EMs and, at the same time, increase the quality and comparability of research data in the weather enterprise. The results will be shared with the NWS and the research community, and all data gathered from these surveys will be publicly available.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135591821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Contextualizing disaster phases using social media data: Hurricane risk visualizations during the forecast and warning phase of Hurricane Irma 使用社交媒体数据将灾害阶段置于背景中:飓风厄玛预报和预警阶段的飓风风险可视化
4区 地球科学
Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0046.1
Robert Prestley, Rebecca E. Morss
{"title":"Contextualizing disaster phases using social media data: Hurricane risk visualizations during the forecast and warning phase of Hurricane Irma","authors":"Robert Prestley, Rebecca E. Morss","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0046.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0046.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Common disaster-phase models provide a useful heuristic for understanding how disasters evolve, but they do not adequately characterize the transitions between phases, such as the forecast and warning phase of predictable disasters. In this study, we use tweets posted by professional sources of meteorological information in Florida during Hurricane Irma (2017) to understand how visual risk communication evolves during this transition. We identify four subphases of the forecast and warning phase: the hypothetical threat, actualized threat, looming threat, and impact subphases. Each subphase is denoted by changes in the kinds of visual risk information disseminated by professional sources and retransmitted by the public, which are often driven by new information provided by the U.S. National Weather Service. In addition, we use regression analysis to understand the impact of tweet timing, content, risk visualization and other factors on tweet retransmission across Irma’s forecast and warning phase. We find that cone, satellite, and spaghetti-plot image types are retweeted more, while watch/warning imagery is retweeted less. In addition, manually generated tweets are retweeted more than automated tweets. These results highlight several information needs to incorporate into the current NWS hurricane forecast visualization suite, such as uncertainty and hazard-specific information at longer lead times, and the importance of investigating the effectiveness of different social media posting strategies. Our results also demonstrate the roles and responsibilities that professional sources engage in during these subphases, which builds understanding of disasters by contextualizing the subphases along the transition from long-term preparedness to postevent response and recovery. Significance Statement Visual information is an important tool for communicating about evolving tropical cyclone threats. In this study, we investigate the kinds of visualizations posted by professional weather communicators on Twitter during Hurricane Irma (2017) to understand how visual information shifts over time and whether different visuals are more retweeted. We find that visual information shifts substantially in the days before Irma’s impacts, and these shifts are often driven by changes in Irma’s strength or forecast track. Our results show that cone, satellite, and spaghetti-plot visualizations are retweeted more frequently, while watch/warning imagery is retweeted less. These results help us to understand how visual information evolves during predictable disasters, and they suggest ways that visual communication can be improved.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135324319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrating Place and Sense of Place into Geovisualizations of Hurricane Storm Surge Risk 将地点和地点感整合到飓风风暴潮风险的地理可视化中
4区 地球科学
Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0044.1
O.V. Wilhelmi, B.C. Chamberlain, R.E. Morss, J.L. Demuth, H.D. Walpole, J. Boehnert, J.M. Gambill, H. Lazrus, J.G. Dobson
{"title":"Integrating Place and Sense of Place into Geovisualizations of Hurricane Storm Surge Risk","authors":"O.V. Wilhelmi, B.C. Chamberlain, R.E. Morss, J.L. Demuth, H.D. Walpole, J. Boehnert, J.M. Gambill, H. Lazrus, J.G. Dobson","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0044.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0044.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Geovisualizations play a central role in communicating hurricane storm surge risks to the public by connecting information about the hazard to a place. Meanwhile, people connect to places through meaning, functions, and emotional bond, known as a sense of place. The mixed-method approach presented in this paper focuses on the intersection of sense of place, geovisualization, and risk communication. We explored place meaning, scale of place, and place attachment in the coastal communities in Georgia and South Carolina. We conducted cognitive mapping focus groups and developed a series of geovisualizations of storm surge risk with varying representations of place. We then investigated people’s ability to connect visual storm surge information to a place and understand their risk by testing these geovisualizations in a large population survey ( n = 1442). We found that a 2D regional-scale map displayed together with a 3D abstract representation of a neighborhood was the most helpful in enabling people to relate to a place, quickly make sense of the information, and understand the risk. Our results showed that while the geovisualizations of storm surge risk can be effective generally, they were less effective in several important and vulnerable groups. We found substantial impacts of race, income, map-reading ability, place attachment, and scale of place on how people connected the storm surge risk shown in the visual to a place. These findings have implications for future research and for considering the way weather forecasters and emergency managers communicate storm surge information with diverse audiences using geovisualizations. Significance Statement Weather forecasters and emergency managers often use geovisualizations to communicate hurricane storm surge risks and threats to the public. Despite the important role that geovisualizations play, few studies have empirically investigated their effectiveness in hazardous weather risk communication. With the overarching goal of understanding how geovisualizations enable coastal residents to understand and respond to risk, we use an interdisciplinary approach to create new knowledge about the effectiveness of geovisualizations in storm surge risk communication. Our results show substantial impacts of sociodemographic factors across many of the measures that enable people to connect to a place through visualizations. These findings have implications for communicating geospatially varying risk to diverse audiences.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"131 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135662095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Extreme Arctic Weather and Community Impacts in Nunavut: A Case Study of One Winter’s Storms and Lessons for Local Climate Change Preparedness 北极极端天气和对努纳武特地区社区的影响:一个冬季风暴的案例研究和对当地气候变化防范的教训
4区 地球科学
Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0006.1
Shari Fox, Alex Crawford, Michelle McCrystall, Julienne Stroeve, Jennifer Lukovich, Nicole Loeb, Jerry Natanine, Mark Serreze
{"title":"Extreme Arctic Weather and Community Impacts in Nunavut: A Case Study of One Winter’s Storms and Lessons for Local Climate Change Preparedness","authors":"Shari Fox, Alex Crawford, Michelle McCrystall, Julienne Stroeve, Jennifer Lukovich, Nicole Loeb, Jerry Natanine, Mark Serreze","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0006.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0006.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Arctic communities are experienced with severe weather, but impacts can still be serious, particularly when the intensity or persistence of hazardous conditions is extreme. Such was the case for the community of Clyde River (Kangiqtugaapik), Nunavut, Canada, which experienced 33 blizzard days during winter 2021/22—likely the most at Clyde River since at least 1978/79. Blizzard conditions resulted from unusually frequent high winds rather than excessive snowfall. The most severe stretch included eight blizzard days over an 11-day period, with top wind gusts of 98 km h −1 . Winds caused severe drifting, covering homes and blocking streets. Broken heavy equipment, including snow-clearing machines, compounded the impacts, leaving homes without essential services like water delivery and sewage pump-out for days. Residents reported the storms and resulting impacts as some of the worst in memory. The drifting and volume of snow, combined with the lack of available resources to manage it, obliged the community to declare a state of emergency. Projections of increased Arctic precipitation and extreme weather events points to the need for communities to have proper resources and supports, including preparedness and adaptation and mitigation strategies, so they can be better equipped to handle storm and blizzard impacts such as those experienced at Clyde River in the winter of 2021/22. Additional steps that can be implemented to better support and prepare communities include investing in preparedness planning, expanded and enhanced weather information and services, community land-based programming to transfer Inuit knowledge and skills, assessing the usefulness of current forecasts, and new approaches to community planning. Significance Statement In this study, we consider the winter of 2021/22, during which the community of Clyde River (Kangiqtugaapik), Nunavut experienced 33 days with blizzard conditions—more than any other year since at least 1978/79. Blizzards are characterized by strong winds and blowing snow. Low visibility impedes travel, and drifting snow blocks roads and can bury equipment and buildings. In this case, broken snow-clearing equipment and other infrastructure challenges also hampered the community’s ability to respond, and residents went days without essential services. Several studies suggest that extreme winds will become more common in the Baffin Bay region in the future. This study demonstrates the need for proper resourcing of communities for preparedness, response, and adaptation strategies, especially with the possibility of extreme winter weather becoming more common.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"2014 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134934210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tweeting the Heat: An Analysis of the National Weather Service's Approach to Extreme Heat Communication on Twitter 推特热:分析国家气象局在推特上的极端高温传播方法
4区 地球科学
Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0033.1
Michele K. Olson, Jeannette Sutton, Nicholas Waugh
{"title":"Tweeting the Heat: An Analysis of the National Weather Service's Approach to Extreme Heat Communication on Twitter","authors":"Michele K. Olson, Jeannette Sutton, Nicholas Waugh","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0033.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0033.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Heat communication interventions are an essential way that public safety organizations can reduce extreme heat consequences for at-risk groups. Although the aim of these interventions is typically behavior change, these organizations commonly assume that providing information about heat risks, impacts, vulnerable populations, and protective actions will lead individuals to protect themselves. However, behavior change is a complex process whereby messages must be crafted in ways that increase their persuasive effects. To examine the extent to which key assumptions about behavior change are present in public safety organizations’ heat communication interventions, we examine 250 heat-related tweets sent by seven National Weather Service (NWS) weather forecast offices (WFOs) in 2021. We find that these NWS WFOs use technical language or “jargon” to communicate about heat risks and impacts. In addition, we find that information about vulnerable populations and protective actions is not presented in a way that conforms to theory on behavior change. Based on these results, we offer recommendations to increase the persuasiveness of NWS WFO communication interventions that encourage the public to protect themselves during extreme heat events. Significance Statement Heat is the leading cause of death among all weather-related hazards. How heat is communicated to the public can help mitigate heat-related morbidity and mortality. However, heat communication interventions are often developed with several embedded assumptions about behavior change that negatively impact their effectiveness. By examining how a key public safety organization communicates about heat on social media, and the extent to which these assumptions are present, we offer recommendations to increase the persuasiveness of NWS heat communication on social media.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135323298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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