Trends in Undergraduate WxChallenge Performance

Abstract

The WxChallenge is a national forecasting competition in which participants at colleges and universities across North America attempt to accurately predict daily high and low temperatures, maximum wind speed, and precipitation accumulation at a variety of locations each year. Undergraduate students make up the majority of participants. In this study we observed trends from 11 seasons of WxChallenge data and related them to existing literature on local forecasting contests. Normalized scores were calculated each day for any participant that submitted a forecast. On average, undergraduate scores improved with continued participation in the contest. Significant gains are made during their first year by forecasters who participated for multiple years. While duration of participation in the contest plays a role, significant improvements in performance were also noted with higher academic standing, potentially due to forecasting experience gained through other curricular or extracurricular activities.