Law Probability & Risk最新文献

{"title":"What Determines the Return to Bribery? Evidence From Corruption Cases Worldwide","authors":"Yan-leung Cheung, P. Rau, Aris Stouraitis","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2020.3763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3763","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze a hand-collected sample of bribery cases from around the world to describe how the payment of bribes affects shareholder value. The net present value of a bribe conditional on getting caught is close to zero for the median firm in our sample. However, controlling for industry, country, and firm characteristics, a $1 increase in the size of the bribe is associated with an ex ante $6–$9 increase in the value of the firm, suggesting a correlation between the size of bribes and the size of available benefits. Proxies for information disclosure appear significant in explaining these benefits with more disclosure associated with lower benefits. However, this result is driven by democratic countries where bribe-paying firms receive smaller benefits relative to the bribes they pay. Information disclosure is not significant in autocratic countries. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87241249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics between Financial Development, Renewable Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Some International Evidence","authors":"D. Kassi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3626481","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3626481","url":null,"abstract":"This thesis investigates the dynamics between financial development, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth in comparative analyses across 123 countries from 1990 to 2017. In the comparative analyses, we considered four income groups, namely low-income (LIC), lower-middle-income (LMC), upper-middle-income (UMC) and high-income (HIC) countries, but also five major regions such as Asia Pacific (APA), Europe & Central Asia (ECS), America (AMA, North America & Latin America and The Caribbean), Middle-East and North Africa (MENA) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This research is motivated by the need to show whether financial development may contribute to the protection of the planet (clean energy) and the eradication of poverty around the world. We also highlight the importance of good governance quality and renewable energies for achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). This project is in line with the SDGs initiated by the United Nations to arouse attention towards clean water and sanitation, decent work and economic growth, peace, justice, and strong institutions affordable and clean energy in response to global warming. Hence, energy-saving technologies, i.e., renewable energies and sustainable growth, may play critical roles in this regard. The scrutiny of the empirical literature reveals that few studies have examined the nonlinear relationship between financial development, renewable energy consumption and economic growth in comparative analyses across different income groups and different regions while considering the multidimensional aspects of financial development. Notably, this study analyzes the nonlinear effects of financial development on renewable energy consumption and economic growth using different financial indicators. In a disaggregated approach, we alternatively use these indicators to represent four aspects of financial development, i.e., financial depth, financial efficiency, financial inclusion, and financial stability. Besides, this study examines the moderating effect of the quality of governance of public institutions on the relationship between financial development, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth across income levels and regions, unlike previous studies. In an aggregated approach, we built composite indexes of financial development and governance quality using eight (8) financial variables and six (6) indicators of governance quality. We make these indexes through the principal component analysis (PCA) technique to derive the overall effect of financial development on renewable energy consumption and growth while avoiding multicollinearity problems and the arbitrary choices of variables. The study also includes ten (10) control variables to avoid bias arising from omitted variables. The different estimations were performed by using two-stage least squares (2SLS), difference-GMM and system-GMM in most cases to deal with endogeneity problems, as well as to provide robust and reliab","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91237887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Should defense lawyers and prosecutors be appointed as judges?","authors":"Ruth Ben-Yashar, Miriam Krausz","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgaa009","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This article analyses cases where independence between judges’ skills and states of nature affects decision efficiency in terms of the probability of making a correct collective decision, relative to the case where such independence does not exist. This article explains when it is advantageous to include either former defense lawyers who have expertise in obtaining an acquittal of defendants or former prosecutors who have expertise in obtaining a conviction, in a panel of judges.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/lpr/mgaa009","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43384092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are judges influenced by legally irrelevant circumstances?","authors":"My Bergius, Emelie Ernberg, Christian Dahlman, Farhan Sarwar","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgaa008","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Judges should not be influenced by legally irrelevant circumstances in their legal decision making and judges generally believe that they manage legally irrelevant circumstances well. The purpose of this experimental study was to investigate whether this self-image is correct. Swedish judges (N = 256) read a vignette depicting a case of libel, where a female student had claimed on her blog that she had been sexually harassed by a named male professor. The professor had sued the student for libel and the student retracted her claim during the hearing. Half of the judges received irrelevant information - that the professor himself had been convicted of libel a year earlier, while the other half did not receive this information. For the outcome variable, the judges were asked to state how much compensation the student should pay the professor. Those judges who received information about the professor himself having been convicted of libel stated that he should be given significantly less compensation than those who did not receive the irrelevant information. The results show that the judges’ decision was affected by legally irrelevant circumstances. Implications for research and practice are discussed","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/lpr/mgaa008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49000935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Incorporating implicit knowledge into the Bayesian model of prior conviction evidence: some reality checks for the theory of comparative propensity","authors":"P. M. Robinson","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgaa011","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The theory of comparative propensity, championed by the late Mike Redmayne, has been an influential theory underpinning normative models of the probative value of evidence of previous convictions in criminal trials. It purports to generalize an approximate probative value by means of a Bayesian model in which the likelihood of an innocent person having a criminal record is calculated by reference to general population statistics, and the hard evidence underpinning the prior probability is treated as unknown. The theory has been criticized on the ground that it fails to take account of bias against past offenders in the selection of cases for prosecution. This article analyses the model and these criticisms and concludes that both the model and the criticisms are flawed because they fail to address the evidence on which the prior odds are based. We find that, not only are such mathematical models unsound, but they can only be ‘repaired’ by making assumptions about the typical case which run counter to the legal presumption of innocence. Analysing the flaws in these models, however, does provide some insight into issues affecting the value of prior convictions evidence.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/lpr/mgaa011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43223619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The logic of uncertainty in law and life","authors":"K. Clermont","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgaa012","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 My central interest is decision making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty. A method appropriate for both specialized inquiries and everyday reasoning is based on credal logic, which employs multivalent degrees of belief rather than traditional probability theory. It accounts for epistemic uncertainty as unallocated belief. It holds that, when facing real uncertainty, if a person believes a and believes b, then the person believes a and b together. This brand of multivalent logic underlies and justifies how legal decision makers and the rest of us find facts in a world infused with epistemic uncertainty. Indeed, this article closes by showing the equivalence of multivalent logic and inference to the best explanation. By demonstrating this similarity in reasoning, I aim to shore up our faith in the logic of traditional legal reasoning.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/lpr/mgaa012","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46563880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An epistemic interpretation of the posterior likelihood ratio distribution","authors":"R. Meester, K. Slooten","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgaa010","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Often the expression of a likelihood ratio involves model parameters θ. This fact prompted many researchers to argue that a likelihood ratio should be accompanied by a confidence interval, as one would do when estimating θ itself. We first argue against this, based on our view of the likelihood ratio as a function of our knowledge of the model parameters, rather than being a function of the parameters themselves. There is, however, another interval that can be constructed, and which has been introduced in the literature. This is the interval obtained upon sampling from the so-called ‘posterior likelihood ratio distribution’, after removing, say, the most extreme 5% of a sample from this distribution. Although this construction appears in the literature, its interpretation remained unclear, as explicitly acknowledged in the literature. In this article we provide an interpretation: the posterior likelihood ratio distribution tells us which likelihood ratios we can expect if we were to obtain more information. As such, it can play a role in decision making procedures, for instance about the question whether or not it is worthwhile to try to obtain more data. The posterior likelihood ratio distribution has no relevance for the evidential value of the current data with our current knowledge. We illustrate all this with a number of examples.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/lpr/mgaa010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49640611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Algorithmic Pricing and Market Coordination – Toward a Notion of ‘Collusive Risk’","authors":"Juliane K. Mendelsohn","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3914922","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3914922","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past couple of years, many competition and antitrust scholars have feared the dawn of ‘algorithmic collusion’. Some have thus suggested expanding the notions of ‘collusion’ and ‘agreement’ in order to capture such coordination. Rather than using an expansive reading of ‘collusion’, the author of this article suggests an approach that works with the core and original intent of Article 101(1) TFEU: the fostering of independent conduct and prevention of market coordination. It finds this to be doctrinally undisputed and also consistent with longstanding competition policy debates, as well as an egalitarian notion of price that lays the foundation of the free market economy. On this basis, and considering given uncertainties, an operational notion of ‘collusive risk’ is put forward.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85259635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Scaling Commercial Law in Indian Country","authors":"Marc L. Roark","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3679595","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3679595","url":null,"abstract":"How do you drive economic enterprise in a financial desert? Indian tribes, academics, economists, and policy makers have considered the means and methods for energizing economic growth for forty years. Efforts such as the creation and promotion of the Model Tribal Secured Transactions Act (“MTSTA”) promise much toward creating conditions that would gather financial opportunity to tribal regions that experience poverty at a strikingly higher rate than any other place in the United States. And yet, while the law has been available for more than ten years, tribes have been reticent to adopt it. This Article fills the vacuum in the literature around the promise of uniform laws in Indian Country by describing the inherent tension that exists between downscaling uniform laws into tribal contexts and the localism that seeks to preserve localized values. This Article argues that tribal choices to accept uniformity or reject uniformity in these areas are built around a combination of formal associations and organic relationships designed to create “institutional thickness” in the face of other scarce resources.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81310204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A FRAND Contract’s Intended Third-Party Beneficiary","authors":"J. Sidak","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3178380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3178380","url":null,"abstract":"The FRAND contract gives an implementer the right to obtain an offer to license a portfolio of standard-essential patents (SEPs) on fair, reasonable, and nondiscriminatory (FRAND) terms. By making a FRAND offer, the SEP holder gives the implementer the power to accept and execute that offer in a binding license agreement on FRAND terms. If the implementer rejects the SEP holder’s FRAND offer, either explicitly or by operation of law, the implementer extinguishes its rights as an intended third-party beneficiary of the FRAND contract and thereafter has no rights under the FRAND contract. After the unlicensed implementer has extinguished its rights as a third-party beneficiary, the SEP holder may request and obtain an injunction against the implementer, charge the implementer more than a FRAND royalty, or refuse to license its SEPs to the implementer. The implementer also may not invoke the FRAND contract to demand extraneous license terms. The FRAND contract gives the implementer no more rights to SEPs than what the SEP holder <i>intends</i> to convey to a third-party beneficiary. In particular, there is no evidence that the SEP holder intended to give the implementer the right to demand <i>à la carte</i> licensing of individual SEPs. For a court to construe the FRAND contract otherwise — so as to compel the SEP holder to license its SEPs individually on demand — is to assume that the SEP holder and the SSO would not have cared about the absurdly high transactions costs of licensing that such a contractual provision would cause. The SEP holder, of course, never would have found it commercially reasonable to agree to make that duty part of its FRAND commitment to the SSO. For the same economic reason, the observed norm within a standardized industry such as mobile telecommunications — the usage of trade, in the parlance of contract interpretation — is that SEP holders license their SEPs in portfolios.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80645054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}