是什么决定了贿赂的回归?世界各地腐败案件的证据

IF 1.4 4区社会学 Q1 LAW

Law Probability & Risk Pub Date : 2020-06-27 DOI:10.1287/mnsc.2020.3763

Yan-leung Cheung, P. Rau, Aris Stouraitis

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引用次数: 18

摘要

我们分析了从世界各地收集的贿赂案例样本，以描述贿赂的支付如何影响股东价值。在我们的样本中，以被抓住为条件的贿赂的净现值接近于零。然而，在控制行业、国家和公司特征的情况下，贿赂金额每增加1美元，公司价值就会增加6 - 9美元，这表明贿赂金额与可获得利益之间存在相关性。信息披露的代理在解释这些好处时显得很重要，更多的披露与更低的好处相关。然而，这一结果是由民主国家推动的，在这些国家，贿赂公司获得的利益相对于他们支付的贿赂要小。信息披露在专制国家并不重要。这篇论文被金融学的Gustavo Manso接受。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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What Determines the Return to Bribery? Evidence From Corruption Cases Worldwide

We analyze a hand-collected sample of bribery cases from around the world to describe how the payment of bribes affects shareholder value. The net present value of a bribe conditional on getting caught is close to zero for the median firm in our sample. However, controlling for industry, country, and firm characteristics, a $1 increase in the size of the bribe is associated with an ex ante $6–$9 increase in the value of the firm, suggesting a correlation between the size of bribes and the size of available benefits. Proxies for information disclosure appear significant in explaining these benefits with more disclosure associated with lower benefits. However, this result is driven by democratic countries where bribe-paying firms receive smaller benefits relative to the bribes they pay. Information disclosure is not significant in autocratic countries. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.

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来源期刊

Law Probability & Risk MATHEMATICSSTATISTICS & PROBABILITY&-STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

28.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Law, Probability & Risk is a fully refereed journal which publishes papers dealing with topics on the interface of law and probabilistic reasoning. These are interpreted broadly to include aspects relevant to the interpretation of scientific evidence, the assessment of uncertainty and the assessment of risk. The readership includes academic lawyers, mathematicians, statisticians and social scientists with interests in quantitative reasoning. The primary objective of the journal is to cover issues in law, which have a scientific element, with an emphasis on statistical and probabilistic issues and the assessment of risk. Examples of topics which may be covered include communications law, computers and the law, environmental law, law and medicine, regulatory law for science and technology, identification problems (such as DNA but including other materials), sampling issues (drugs, computer pornography, fraud), offender profiling, credit scoring, risk assessment, the role of statistics and probability in drafting legislation, the assessment of competing theories of evidence (possibly with a view to forming an optimal combination of them). In addition, a whole new area is emerging in the application of computers to medicine and other safety-critical areas. New legislation is required to define the responsibility of computer experts who develop software for tackling these safety-critical problems.