Law Probability & Risk最新文献

{"title":"State Cartels","authors":"J. Coleman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3567236","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3567236","url":null,"abstract":"The United States is emerging from history’s biggest commodity boom as the meteoric rise of fracking has made America the center of global oil production and the engine of the world’s economy. But haste makes waste. These new American oil wells are releasing natural gas as well, which is prized as a clean and reliable fuel around the world, but must be simply burned off or “flared�? if there are no pipelines to bring it to the customers that need it. The pace of the oil boom, and the challenges of building new gas pipelines have forced oil companies to flare staggering quantities of natural gas. In recent months, Texas and North Dakota have both flared — that is, wasted — more natural gas than many states or even nations consume. This Article shows that to stop this tremendous economic and environmental waste, states must develop a new approach to antitrust law. It makes the case for state energy cartels. One of the few consensus grounds for regulation is combating market power — preventing dominant suppliers from increasing their profits by selling less at higher prices. States break up producer cartels so that competition provides consumers with lower prices. But what happens when a state’s interest coincides with producers rather than consumers? The economic health of major energy exporters depends on the price of the products they export. That is, these states, provinces, and countries can benefit by increasing the price of the oil and gas that they export. For the first half of the twentieth century, the United States was the world’s premier oil exporter; during that time, U.S. states cooperated as a de facto cartel to ensure higher oil prices. When other countries overtook the U.S. as the world’s premier oil producers, they formed the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to play a similar role. This article establishes a new theory of market regulation — state cartels. It explains how these cartels offer the best solution to the flaring crisis and a unique opportunity for productive global cooperation to address climate change. It shows how states can slow production, protect the environment, and increase their industry’s profits by adapting and perfecting tools that the United States stumbled upon in the first half-century of oil production. And it shows how these tools can be tailored to protect consumers, industry, and the environment.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82506345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Legal System Network Effects and Global Legal Development","authors":"David C. Donald","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3444159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3444159","url":null,"abstract":"Law originates in local environments, yet can be transmitted globally or over time to new contexts and foreign or future users. At its origin, law arises in response to social needs, but once formalized it takes on a semantic life of its own in a network of users. A rule created in response to a random New York plaintiff could – with sufficient popularity – end up as the standard norm applied globally, regardless of underlying suitability for specific local needs. To better understand the consequence of these legal system network effects on global legal development, this paper applies Klausner’s network theory of law’s perceived value to use of foreign or transnational law in the international development context. Through this network analysis, the paper expands on Pistor’s examination of how local needs interact with standardized, international “best practices�?. With regard to law’s genesis in reaction to local environmental stimulus, the paper presents the leading theory on law generated in response to societal demand (Luhmann), but also shows the presence of similar views in Baker, Eisenberg and Glenn. This analysis brings law’s dual facets into focus: at law’s origin are systematic relationships in which societal needs stimulate the legal profession’s ordering of concepts and remedies. Once formalized, law then enjoys network effects by its users: the legal system’s concepts and remedies take value from their ability to be easily communicated and understood, becoming more valuable as the network’s user base grows. The logic of law’s network growth will tend to divorce it from attention to the disruptive stimulus of social needs. Because law as a network will become more attractive the more “settled�? (use over time) or “global�? (use over space) it becomes, change becomes undesirable. A bias in favor of well-networked law can insulate the legal system from the dynamic social responsiveness needed to retain congruence with social needs. Developing countries and law reform professionals should therefore keep in mind that although popular “fast law�? may hit the spot and please the budget, it is probably not the best way to nourish the body politic.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80155211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical issues arising in the Office of Federal Contract Compliance's recent notice on nondiscrimination obligations’ of contractor's and the concerns raised in the comments submitted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce","authors":"Joseph L Gastwirth","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa007","DOIUrl":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa007","url":null,"abstract":"A proposed rule announced by the Office of Federal Contract Compliance describing the way statistical tests will be used in compliance reviews led to the Chamber of Commerce filing a formal Comment. The comment raises several statistical issues, including the proper analysis of stratified data and the effect of large samples on tests of significance. The Chamber correctly pointed out that simple pooling of the data into one large sample can lead to misleading conclusions, so an appropriate analysis, combining the results of statistical analyses of the individual strata into an overall estimate and statistical test is described. Both the proposal and Comment state that practical significance should be considered but do not provide a clear definition of the term, although various definitions are referred to. Two alternative approaches to evaluating the practical significance are described. One assesses the financial impact of the disparity on a typical wage earner, while the second considers the number of employees affected by the disparity and estimates the effect of the disparity on their earnings during their expected time of employment.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":"19 1","pages":"109-117"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/lpr/mgaa007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42037203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Defence against the modern arts: the curse of statistics—Part II: ‘Score-based likelihood ratios’","authors":"Cedric Neumann;Madeline Ausdemore","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa006","DOIUrl":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa006","url":null,"abstract":"For several decades, legal and scientific scholars have argued that conclusions from forensic examinations should be supported by statistical data and reported within a probabilistic framework. Multiple models have been proposed to quantify and express the probative value of forensic evidence. Unfortunately, the use of statistics to perform inferences in forensic science adds a layer of complexity that most forensic scientists, court officers and lay individuals are not armed to handle. Many applications of statistics to forensic science rely on ad-hoc strategies and are not scientifically sound. The opacity of the technical jargon used to describe probabilistic models and their results, and the complexity of the techniques involved make it very difficult for the untrained user to separate the wheat from the chaff. This series of papers is intended to help forensic scientists and lawyers recognize limitations and issues in tools proposed to interpret the results of forensic examinations. This article focuses on tools that have been proposed to leverage the use of similarity scores to assess the probative value of forensic findings. We call this family of tools ‘score-based likelihood ratios’. In this article, we present the fundamental concepts on which these tools are built, we describe some specific members of this family of tools, and we compare them explore to the Bayes factor through an intuitive geometrical approach and through simulations. Finally, we discuss their validation and their potential usefulness as a decision-making tool in forensic science.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":"19 1","pages":"21-42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/lpr/mgaa006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42690965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decision-theoretic and risk-based approaches to naked statistical evidence: some consequences and challenges","authors":"Rafal Urbaniak;Alicja Kowalewska;Pavel Janda;Patryk Dziurosz-Serafinowicz","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa001","DOIUrl":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa001","url":null,"abstract":"In the debate about the legal value of naked statistical evidence, Di Bello argues that (1) the likelihood ratio of such evidence is unknown, (2) the decision-theoretic considerations indicate that a conviction based on such evidence is unacceptable when expected utility maximization is combined with fairness constraints, and (3) the risk of mistaken conviction based on such evidence cannot be evaluated and is potentially too high. We argue that Di Bello's argument for (1) works in a rather narrow context, and that (1) is not exactly in line with the way expert witnesses are required to formulate their opinions. Consequently, Di Bello's argument for (2), which assumes (1), does not apply uniformly to all convictions based on naked evidence. Moreover, if Di Bello's analysis is correct, it applies also to eyewitness testimony, given empirical results about its quality, and so the distinctions drawn by DiBello cut across the distinction between naked statistical evidence and other types of evidence. Finally, if we weaken the rather strong requirement of precise measurability of the risk of mistaken conviction, to the availability of reasonable but imprecise and fallible estimates, many field and empirical studies show that often the risk of mistaken conviction based on naked statistical evidence can be estimated to a similar extent as the risk of mistaken conviction based on any other sort of evidence.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":"19 1","pages":"67-83"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/lpr/mgaa001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47750814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Defence against the modern arts: the curse of statistics: Part I—FRStat","authors":"Cedric Neumann","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa004","DOIUrl":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa004","url":null,"abstract":"For several decades, legal and scientific scholars have argued that conclusions from forensic examinations should be supported by statistical data and reported within a probabilistic framework. Multiple models have been proposed to quantify and express the probative value of forensic evidence. Unfortunately, the use of statistics to perform inferences in forensic science adds a layer of complexity that most forensic scientists, court offices and lay individuals are not armed to handle. Many applications of statistics to forensic science rely on ad hoc strategies and are not scientifically sound. The opacity of the technical jargon that is used to describe these probabilistic models and their results, and the complexity of the techniques involved make it very difficult for the untrained user to separate the wheat from the chaff. This series of article is intended to help forensic scientists and lawyers recognize limitations and issues in tools proposed to interpret the results of forensic examinations. This article focuses on the tool proposed by the Latent Print Branch of the U.S. Defense Forensic Science Center (DFSC) and called FRStat. In this article, I explore the compatibility of the results outputted by FRStat with the language used by the DFCS to report the conclusions of their fingerprint examinations, as well as the appropriateness of the statistical modelling underpinning the tool and the validation of its performance.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":"19 1","pages":"1-20"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/lpr/mgaa004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43631657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Value of evidence in the rare type match problem: common source versus specific source","authors":"I N Van Dorp;A J Leegwater;I Alberink;G Jongbloed","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa002","DOIUrl":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa002","url":null,"abstract":"In the so-called rare type match problem, the discrete characteristics of a crime stain have not been observed in the set of background material. To assess the strength of evidence, two competing statistical hypotheses need to be considered. The formulation of the hypotheses depends on which identification of source question is of interest (Ommen, 2017, Approximate statistical solutions to the forensic identification of source problem. (Phd thesis). South Dakota State University). Assuming that the evidence has been generated according to the beta-binomial model, two quantifications of the value of evidence can be found in the literature, but no clear indication is given when to use either of these. When the likelihood ratio is used to quantify the value of evidence, an estimate is needed for the frequency of the discrete characteristics. The central discussion is about whether or not one of the traces needs to be added to the background material when determining this estimate. In this article it is shown, using fully Bayesian methods, that one of the values of evidence from the literature corresponds to the so-called ‘identification of common source’ problem and the other to the ‘identification of specific source’ problem (Ommen, 2017, Approximate statistical solutions to the forensic identification of source problem. (Phd thesis). South Dakota State University). This means that the question whether or not one of the traces needs to be added to the background material reduces to the question whether a common source or specific source problem is under consideration. The distinction between the two values is especially important for the rare type match problem, since the values of evidence differ most in this situation.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":"19 1","pages":"85-98"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/lpr/mgaa002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47153325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Machine learning for determining accurate outcomes in criminal trials","authors":"Jane Mitchell;Simon Mitchell;Cliff Mitchell","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa003","DOIUrl":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa003","url":null,"abstract":"Advances in mathematical and computational technologies have brought unique and ground-breaking benefits to diverse fields throughout society (engineering, medicine, economics, etc.). Within legal systems, however, the potential applications of data science and innovative mathematical tools have yet to be embraced with the same ambition. The complex decision-making that is needed for reaching just verdicts is often seen as out of reach for such approaches and, in the case of criminal trials, this inhibits exploration into whether machine learning could have a positive impact. Here, through assigning numerical scores to prosecution and defence evidence, and employing an approach based on dimensionality reduction, we showed that evidence strands presented at historical murder trials could be used to train effective machine-learning algorithms (or models). We tested the evidence quantification approach with the trained model and showed that, through machine learning, criminal cases could be clearly classified (probability >99.9%) as belonging to either a guilty or a not-guilty category. The classification was found to be as expected for all test cases. All guilty test cases that were not wrongful convictions were correctly assigned to the guilty category by our model and, crucially, test cases that were wrongful convictions were correctly assigned to the not-guilty category. This work demonstrated the potential for machine learning to benefit criminal trial decision-making, and should motivate further testing and development of the model and datasets for assisting the judicial process.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":"19 1","pages":"43-65"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/lpr/mgaa003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48970761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Classical probabilities and belief functions in legal cases","authors":"Ronald Meester","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa005","DOIUrl":"10.1093/lpr/mgaa005","url":null,"abstract":"I critically discuss a recent suggestion in Nance (Belief Functions and Burdens of Proof. Law, Probability and Risk, 18:53–76, 2018) concerning the question which ratios of beliefs are appropriate when in criminal or civil cases one works with belief functions instead of classical probabilities. I do not call into question the use of belief functions themselves in this context, and I agree with in Nance (Belief Functions and Burdens of Proof. Law, Probability and Risk, 18:53–76, 2018) that so-called ‘uncommitted support’, possible in the framework of belief functions, should not be taken into account in a decision-theoretic framework. However, I argue against in Nance (Belief Functions and Burdens of Proof. Law, Probability and Risk, 18:53–76, 2018) in that, at least in criminal law, relative sizes of beliefs should not be used for decision-making at all. I will argue that only the individual, absolute beliefs should be considered. Since belief functions generalize classical probabilities, this position seems at first sight to conflict with the fact that odds are abundant when we use classical probabilities in a legal context. I will take the opportunity, then, to point out that also in the classical setting, odds are not our primary concern either. They are convenient since they appear, together with the likelihood ratio, in the odds form of Bayes’ rule. Apart from that, they do not have any individual significance. I also note that in civil law the conclusions might be different.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":"19 1","pages":"99-107"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/lpr/mgaa005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41672316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Chinese Law and Development","authors":"M. Erie","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3552044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3552044","url":null,"abstract":"The 2020 coronavirus pandemic has cast doubt on taken-for-granted economic and governance models. Against the backdrop of increasing tension between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC or China), China is presenting itself as an alternative center for governance. Pursuant to these seismic shifts, the analysis must attune to how China creates cross-border order. Whereas scholars have examined China’s use of trade and investment law, inadequate attention has been paid to how the PRC grapples with the domestic law of host states. As the PRC seeks to protect its investments abroad, it is confronted with questions of law and development, yet there is little understanding of China’s approach or what it means for host states, developed economies, and global governance. \u0000 \u0000This Article seeks to fill that gap. “Chinese law and development” (CLD) consists of transnational law, some of which builds on legal infrastructures from the U.S. and some of which is Chinese, along with extralegal and nonlegal norms. These normative orders mitigate risk as a precondition to promoting China’s interests overseas. Drawing on three years of fieldwork and nearly 150 interviews in China and in host states, this Article presents the first empirical study of CLD to articulate an analytical theory to understand this phenomenon. In assessing CLD, I query whether CLD is good for developing states, and identify a research agenda for the study of the legal and regulatory dimensions of Chinese economic globalization.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82462889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}