Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

{"title":"Estimating spring frost risk in apple farms from crop insurance data","authors":"Seung Min Kim ,&nbsp;Jeongha Hwang ,&nbsp;Kwansoo Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100809","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100809","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In South Korea, spring frost events frequently deliver catastrophic damage to apple orchards, leading to destabilization of apple markets and causing substantial financial burdens to the crop insurers. The present study aims to establish an analytical framework for spring frost prediction based on a Machine Learning (ML) algorithm and a four-year record of spring frost crop insurance loss claims. A fine-scale, observation-based gridded weather dataset is paired with the insurance dataset to analyze the relationship between spring frost damage and meteorological, climactic, and socioeconomic conditions. The results show that the Random Forest (RF) algorithm outperforms all tested algorithms of classical binary outcome variable regression and discriminant analysis, with an accuracy of <span><math><mrow><mo>&gt;</mo><mn>94</mn><mtext>%</mtext></mrow></math></span>, and this superiority is robust over different classification thresholds. Farmer socioeconomic information held by the insurers provides additional improvements in RF performance, while the transformation of temperature variable to double-threshold degree days is not significant. The algorithms are applied to the assessment of spring frost risk at insurance-covered farms. We find evidence suggesting “adverse selection,” where farmers purchasing lower deductible plans show higher spring frost risk. The results will help both crop insurers and farmers manage spring frost risk by providing a reliable predicting framework of disaster occurrence and shaping the optimal crop insurance contract.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100809"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145362428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The opposite trends in precipitation total and extremes during two rain-seasons across Ethiopia, the Water Tower of Africa","authors":"Tewodros Addisu Yate ,&nbsp;Guoyu Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100813","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100813","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study assesses trends in precipitation total and extremes across Ethiopia from 1980 to 2019, using datasets of daily gauge observations. Following quality control and homogenization, daily precipitation data from 110 stations are gridded onto a 1° × 1° latitude-longitude grid cells. Precipitation anomaly percentage (PAP) and the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) indices are applied to represent precipitation total and extremes, respectively. Regional time series are constructed using area-weighted averages derived from the grid-level data. The Theil-Sen estimator and the modified Mann-Kendall test are employed to evaluate the statistical significance of trends at the 5 % level. The results indicate an annual and Jun–Sep seasonal increase in both precipitation total and extremes, characterized by rising frequency and intensity of extreme events. The Theil-Sen slope estimates a regional annual PAP increase of 0.92 % per decade, with a more pronounced rise of 4.6 % per decade for the Jun–Sep season (main precipitation season). Significant upward regional trends are observed in extreme indices such as RX1day, R95p, R99p, R10, R25, and R40 during the forty years. Spatial analysis highlights central, northwestern, and northeastern Ethiopia as areas experiencing robust increases in precipitation total and extremes. The observed rise in precipitation total is predominantly driven by increases in precipitation extremes within the region, as demonstrated by spatial correlations between precipitation total and extremes. Conversely, the Feb–May season (secondary precipitation season) exhibits significant regional decreases in precipitation total and extremes, particularly in northeastern, eastern, and southern areas. This includes declines in frequency-related indices (R5, R10, R25) and prolonged dry spells as measured by CDD. The causes for the increase in frequency and intensity of annual and Jun–Sep seasonal precipitation in Ethiopia over recent decades need to be investigated, though it is in accordance with the expectation that anthropogenic global warming can result in a rise in precipitation extremes over most regions of the world. However, the significant changes in precipitation observed in both Jun–Sep and Feb–May seasons are a cause for concern, as they may exert a major impact on sectors and areas of the country where these two seasons hold critical importance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100813"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145320857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A strong stratospheric harbinger for cold extremes: Weak polar vortex transition from displacement to split pattern","authors":"Murong Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Yi Yang ,&nbsp;Yipeng Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100832","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100832","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Weak stratospheric polar vortex (WSPV) events are dynamically connected with the variations in the tropospheric circulation, serving as crucial harbingers for surface cold extremes in the Northern Hemisphere. Although WSPV events are usually featured with either displaced or split stratospheric polar vortex pattern, a notable portion of WSPV events experiences both patterns successively, leading to inconclusive surface impacts of different WSPV events. Here, we propose a novel method to quantitatively identify WSPV events with vortex transition (namely, mixed-type WSPV events) by performing clustering analysis on WSPV days based on 42-yr ERA5 reanalysis, and further examine their climatological features, surface impacts and tropospheric precursors. Results show that the mixed-type WSPV events are usually featured with a routine vortex evolution from displacement to split. In contrast to comparatively weak tropospheric response to pure displaced- and split-type events, the mixed-type WSPV events feature the longer persistence of stratospheric circulation anomalies and are followed by stronger negative Arctic Oscillation-like surface signatures, further contributing to more robust cold anomalies over northern Eurasia and the central U.S. 10–39 days after event onset. Moreover, mixed-type events are typically induced by upward propagated wave activity flux into the stratosphere contributed by the synergistic enhancement of tropospheric planetary wavenumbers 1 and 2. The enhancement of tropospheric planetary wavenumbers 1 and 2 is associated with deepening of the Aleutian Low and strengthening of the dipole over northern Scandinavia-eastern Siberia, respectively. This tropospheric configuration can sevrve as a vital precursor pattern for mixed-type WSPV events, hinting at extreme cold events with far-reaching societal impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100832"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145531897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can wet heatwaves be represented by CMIP6 models and bias-corrected NEX-GDDP-CMIP6?","authors":"Zihui Zhao ,&nbsp;Shuiqing Yin ,&nbsp;Jim Hall","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100790","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100790","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As global warming intensifies, wet heatwaves pose an increasing threat to human health. As global climate models (GCMs) and their bias-corrected datasets are commonly used in wet heatwave research, it is essential to determine whether these datasets accurately represent wet heatwaves. We conducted a global assessment of 32 GCMs from CMIP6 and the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, simulating wet heatwaves based on extended summer wet-bulb temperature (T_w) during 1981–2014, and compared them with the Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset (GMFD). Our findings indicate CMIP6 overestimates mean wet heatwave number (HWN), frequency (HWF), and duration (HWD), with relative biases from −32 % to 96 % (global mean: 10 %), −15 %–81 % (mean: 35 %), and −12 %–50 % (mean: 25 %) across IPCC climate reference regions, respectively. The exaggerated temporal autocorrelation of T_w, which statistically reflects an excessively persistent state of abnormal humid heat in GCMs, inflating biases in the count of events with long duration that probably lead to the overestimations of HWN, HWF, and HWD. CMIP6 significantly underestimates wet heatwave magnitude (HWM) by −70 %–6 % (mean: 9 %), primarily due to its underestimation of extreme T_w values. While the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset reduces this bias through the application of the quantile mapping method, it has limited effectiveness in correcting T_w autocorrelation, which restricts improvements in metrics such as HWN, HWF, and HWD. We find that heatwave intensity (HWI), reflecting the cumulative impact of heat, is influenced by the interplay between HWM and HWD. We identify the best-performing models for simulating wet heatwaves across continents using NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. These findings highlight the need for careful evaluation of both raw and bias-corrected datasets before using them in climate risk assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100790"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the effects of rainstorm adaptation strategies on maize yield among rural farmers in Ekiti State, Nigeria","authors":"Adewale Isaac Olutumise ,&nbsp;Lawrence Olusola Oparinde ,&nbsp;Akinyemi Gabriel Omonijo ,&nbsp;Igbekele Amos Ajibefun ,&nbsp;Taye Timothy Amos ,&nbsp;Yiseyon Sunday Hosu ,&nbsp;Julius Olumide Ilesanmi ,&nbsp;Dayo Temitope Oguntuase","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100814","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100814","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increased recurrence of rainstorms remains a concern for productivity and economic development, especially in developing countries. Therefore, focusing on rainstorm adaptation and its impact on agricultural productivity will play a vital role in shaping policy decisions. Based on this fact, the study models the effects of rainstorm adaptation strategies on maize yield among rural farmers in Ekiti State, Nigeria, using an endogenous switching regression model. By the cross-sectional data of 293 farmers, the model accounts for selectivity bias. The result recognised that the rainstorm event had caused economic and environmental damage. However, the farmers do make proactive efforts to adapt to rainstorms in the area. The results further revealed that age, education, income, fertilizer applications, hill region, participation in training, and climate information determine the adoption of rainstorm adaptation decision-making. Our findings show that the adoption of rainstorm adaptation increased maize yield, as an average farmer who adopted it produced nearly 57 % more than farmers who did not adopt it. Again, adopters would have lost about 44 % value of yield if they had decided not to adopt, whereas approximately 28 % value of yield would have accrued by the non-adopters if they had adopted. Again, the number of assets owned, fertilizer application, climate belief, and participation in climate-related training are the significant factors explaining higher adopters’ yield. Therefore, the study suggests policy interventions that will promote the wide adoption of rainstorm adaptations. Also, improved weather forecasting services and better access to relevant climate information can help farmers make better decisions and plan their agricultural activities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100814"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145268077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Conditional attribution of cold extremes in Canada: The role of atmospheric circulation in a changing climate","authors":"Yongxiao Liang,&nbsp;Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young,&nbsp;Bin Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100826","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, specifically the Pacific-North American (PNA), Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climate indices, on the likelihood of cold extremes across Canada, utilizing ERA5 data and CMIP6 model simulations. The analysis reveals that PNA is closely linked to cold anomalies in western Canada, ABNA influences the west and central regions, and NAO impacts eastern Canada. A decrease in the likelihood of cold extremes is attributed to human-induced climate change, using both unconditional event attribution and event attribution conditioned on the observed circulation patterns. Under similar atmospheric circulation patterns as observed, human-induced climate change reduced the likelihood of recent cold extremes by 3–10 times across Canadian regions in the current climate compared to the pre-industrial climate. Under both the current and pre-industrial climates, negative PNA/ABNA phases and positive NAO phases can increase the likelihood of regular cold extremes, with synergies between indices significantly amplifying risks. Conversely, the opposite phases can reinforce the climate signal, further reducing the probability of cold extremes. These findings highlight the critical role of natural variability in cold extreme dynamics, offering valuable insights for improved climate prediction, attribution, and regional adaptation strategies in Canada.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100826"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145434330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The relative contribution of physical processes leading the May 2024 heat wave in Cuba using a novel temperature anomaly analysis","authors":"Albenis Pérez-Alarcón ,&nbsp;Rogert Sorí ,&nbsp;Milica Stojanovic ,&nbsp;Daniela Lobaina-Castillo ,&nbsp;Beatriz Velázquez-Zaldivar ,&nbsp;Ricardo M. Trigo ,&nbsp;Raquel Nieto ,&nbsp;Luis Gimeno","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100827","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100827","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Several weather stations reported record-breaking air maximum temperatures in May 2024 in Cuba. While the general mechanisms driving heat waves (HWs) in this region are known, the relative contribution of adiabatic, diabatic, and advective processes in causing the near-surface temperature anomalies (T′) remains unclear. Addressing this knowledge gap, this study examines the driver mechanisms of these abnormally high temperatures and quantifies the contributions of these physical processes. Unlike previous studies that often focused on individual processes, we applied a novel T′ decomposition and source analysis approach along air parcel backward trajectories to achieve this goal. Results show that most of the Cuban territory was under HW conditions, particularly the central and western regions, which reported T′ reaching 3–4 °C (considering the 1991–2020 average). The T′ decomposition framework revealed the local-origin sources for T'. Beneath clear skies, subsidence and increased insolation related to high pressures on the surface and high geopotential centres in the lower and middle atmosphere favoured adiabatic warming as the primary mechanism for rising temperatures, followed by advective processes with a weak contribution. Meanwhile, diabatic processes negatively contributed. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of the drivers' mechanisms of HWs in Cuba by quantitatively corroborating the importance of local warming processes and providing a guide for examining such extremes in the context of global warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100827"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145434333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Possible increase of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the Northwest Pacific induced by the Tambora eruption in 1815","authors":"Yue Li ,&nbsp;Yang Yang ,&nbsp;Leying Zhang ,&nbsp;Jiuwei Zhao ,&nbsp;Kun Wu ,&nbsp;Shanshan Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100837","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100837","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of tropical volcanic eruptions (TVEs) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity remains a subject of ongoing debate. Here, we investigate the effects of the 1815 Tambora eruption, which occurred during the pre-industrial period, with that of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption in present-day era on TC activity in the western North Pacific (WNP). Using high-resolution simulations and proxy data derived from reanalyses, we find that both TVEs lead to significant increases in TC genesis frequency (TCGF) and track density (TCTD) over the WNP. The Tambora eruption triggers the equatorial central Pacific warming, inducing tropical westerly wind anomalies in the WNP. While thermodynamic conditions were generally unfavorable for TC genesis, the dominant influence of dynamic factors facilitated increased TC activity. Our findings suggest that the cooling effect of TVEs can be viewed as a transient analog of global warming, providing valuable insights into future TC variability under changing climatic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100837"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145560160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drought attribution of climate drivers using machine learning techniques","authors":"Milton S. Speer,&nbsp;Lance M. Leslie","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100801","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100801","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100801"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145027666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancing global hindcast of extreme sea levels: Insights from a 65-year study","authors":"Pengcheng Wang ,&nbsp;Natacha B. Bernier","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100805","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100805","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme sea levels (ESLs) are a leading cause of coastal hazards. Assessing risks and associated impacts requires reliable ESL statistics. These are typically derived from long but sparsely available tide-gauge records or through records obtained from long hindcasts. Here we present a 65-year global hindcast of hourly total sea levels that dynamically includes contributions from storm surges, tides, changes in water density (or baroclinicity) and their interactions. Evaluation shows good agreement between modelled and available observed sea levels, including extremes driven by extratropical and tropical cyclones. Significant improvements over other simulations result from our efforts in addressing underestimated reanalysis winds and incorporating baroclinicity, both of which have been overlooked in other global studies. The improvements can translate into reductions of return periods for given critical levels by decades. We therefore provide improved global estimates of ESL. In a first step toward developing seasonal forecast of flood risk, we also quantified ENSO-induced ESL modulations. The modulations show coherent spatial variabilities, consistent with ENSO-induced changes in the atmosphere and ocean. We also highlight the relevance of the often-overlooked neutral phase in regions where both El Niño and La Niña may suppress sea level variabilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100805"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145118950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}