Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

{"title":"Compound wind and rainfall extremes: Drivers and future changes over the UK and Ireland","authors":"Colin Manning ,&nbsp;Elizabeth J. Kendon ,&nbsp;Hayley J. Fowler ,&nbsp;Jennifer L. Catto ,&nbsp;Steven C. Chan ,&nbsp;Philip G. Sansom","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The co-occurrence of wind and rainfall extremes can yield larger impacts than when either hazard occurs in isolation. This study assesses compound extremes produced by Extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) during winter from two perspectives. Firstly, we assess ETCs with extreme footprints of wind and rainfall; footprint severity is measured using the wind severity index (WSI) and rain severity index (RSI) which account for the intensity, duration, and area of either hazard. Secondly, we assess local co-occurrences of 6-hourly wind and rainfall extremes within ETCs. We quantify the likelihood of compound extremes in these two perspectives and characterise a number of their drivers (jet stream, cyclone tracks, and fronts) in control (1981–2000) and future (2060–2081, RCP8.5) climate simulations from a 12-member ensemble of local convection-permitting 2.2 km climate projections over the UK and Ireland. Simulations indicate an increased probability of ETCs producing extremely severe WSI and RSI in the same storm in the future, occurring 3.6 times more frequently (every 5 years compared to every 18 years in the control). This frequency increase is mainly driven by increased rainfall intensities, pointing to a predominantly thermodynamic driver. However, future winds also increase alongside a strengthened jet stream, while a southward displaced jet and cyclone track in these events leads to a dynamically-enhanced increase in temperature. This intensifies rainfall in line with Clausius-Clapeyron, and potentially wind speeds due to additional latent heat energy. Future simulations also indicate an increase in the land area experiencing locally co-occurring wind and rainfall extremes; largely explained by increased rainfall within warm and cold fronts, although the relative increase is highest near cold fronts suggesting increased convective activity. These locally co-occurring extremes are more likely in storms with severe WSI and RSI, but not exclusively so as local co-occurrence requires the coincidence of separate drivers within ETCs. Overall, our results reveal many contributing factors to compound wind and rainfall extremes and their future changes. Further work is needed to understand the uncertainty in the future response by sampling additional climate models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000343/pdfft?md5=937e3efab2491d5ef5e098b7710441ab&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000343-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140796959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in moisture sources contributed to the onset and development of the 2017-2019 southeast Australian drought","authors":"Andréa S. Taschetto ,&nbsp;Milica Stojanovic ,&nbsp;Chiara M. Holgate ,&nbsp;Anita Drumond ,&nbsp;Jason P. Evans ,&nbsp;Luis Gimeno ,&nbsp;Raquel Nieto","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In 2017-2019 southeast Australia experienced one of its most severe droughts since 1900. Rainfall over the region encompassing the Murray-Darling Basin was consistently below average for three consecutive cool seasons, an unprecedented event on record. A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has been previously suggested to have intensified the conditions of the drought in 2019, however the state of the climate drivers cannot fully explain the onset and development of this drought. In this study, we adopt a different approach to investigate processes other than remote climate drivers that may have triggered the drought. Using a Lagrangian model to identify moisture sources to the Murray Darling Basin, we show that local processes were crucial in explaining the onset and development of the drought. We identify the oceanic and terrestrial sources of atmospheric moisture over the Murray Darling Basin and show for the first time a significant decline in rainfall moisture supply from the Tasman Sea in 2017 and 2018. We further show that anomalous atmospheric circulation transported the expected moisture northward toward the Maritime Continent. Our results provide an explanation for the moisture and rainfall deficit that caused the 2017-19 southeast Australian drought. Understanding the processes that led to the 2017-2019 drought is an important step towards improved predictions and planning for future multi-year droughts in Australia.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000331/pdfft?md5=3f59674801a97ba9d7e116ec52c46f78&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000331-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140771421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics of an extreme low temperature event over South Africa amid a warming climate","authors":"Hector Chikoore ,&nbsp;Innocent L. Mbokodo ,&nbsp;Mukovhe V. Singo ,&nbsp;Tumelo Mohomi ,&nbsp;Rendani B. Munyai ,&nbsp;Henno Havenga ,&nbsp;Dawn D. Mahlobo ,&nbsp;Francois A. Engelbrecht ,&nbsp;Mary-Jane M. Bopape ,&nbsp;Thando Ndarana","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100668","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Despite robust warming trends in surface air temperatures over southern Africa, extreme low temperature (ELT) events still occur from time to time. A recent ELT event affected South Africa resulting in disruptions in socio-economic activities amid a coronavirus pandemic. At least 27 long-term low temperature records were broken during 22–24 July 2021, with snow falls observed mostly over high ground in subtropical districts. This study employs weather station data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalyses to investigate dynamics of the ELT event focusing on the South African Highveld. Our approach employs multiscale analysis, with long term trends and climatologies of surface air temperatures, snow events and ground frost days presented as background to understanding the observed extreme weather anomalies. We found consistent and statistically significant warming trends in daytime and overnight temperatures, with corresponding decreases in ground frosts. The July 2021 ELT event resulted from a combination of complex circulation anomalies which included an intense offshore cut-off low (COL) that extended to the surface (and associated wave breaking), a cold front and a Type-S ridging anticyclone, all intensifying surface cold air advection from the Southern Ocean. A most significant finding is that COLs do not need to enter South Africa to cause severe weather over the country. Our study contributes to understanding the occurrence and dynamics of cold extremes in subtropical regions, against a robust warming trend.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209472400029X/pdfft?md5=c6dfab0b39b2851a03ffc92a43eeaa83&pid=1-s2.0-S221209472400029X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140539980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of soil moisture-temperature coupling for the 2018 Northern European heatwave in a subseasonal forecast","authors":"Sunlae Tak ,&nbsp;Eunkyo Seo ,&nbsp;Paul A. Dirmeyer ,&nbsp;Myong-In Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100670","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100670","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the predictability of the 2018 Northern Europe heatwave using the GloSea5 forecast model from the perspective of land-atmosphere interactions. We focus on an inverse relationship wherein soil drying leads to increased temperatures and the model's ability to simulate this hypersensitivity in the soil moisture-temperature coupling on the dry side of a breakpoint defined as the soil moisture threshold below which land feedbacks nonlinearly amplify extreme heat. When evaluating forecast model performance in predicting this heatwave, we compare deterministic forecast scores (Hit Rate (HR) and True Skill Score (TSS)) for whether model Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) falls within the hypersensitive regime. GloSea5 exhibits enhanced prediction skill for the extreme heat event when the modelled soil moisture is within the hypersensitive regime. To understand the skill of the heatwave forecast for hit and missed cases of capturing SSM below the breakpoint, we first evaluate the climatological model performance for the water- and energy-limited processes, and then perform a comparison classified by whether SSM verifies on the dry side of the wilting point. The composite analysis demonstrates that the reproducibility of the breakpoint is tied to an improvement in climatological land coupling processes, mainly for classification in the water-limited coupling regime. Therefore, the results suggest that the process-based connection between soil moisture and temperature is a potential source for improving heatwave forecasts on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000318/pdfft?md5=986d87d90f9d65e1b4ca86056a508b46&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000318-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140535853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the spatial and temporal characteristics of compound dry hazard occurrences across the pan-Asian region","authors":"Davy Jean Abella,&nbsp;Kuk-Hyun Ahn","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100669","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate extremes have grown increasingly severe and frequent, posing significant threats to both economies and ecosystems. Prior research largely focused on individual hazard occurrences, often overlooking the compounded effects of multiple extreme events. With the escalating anthropogenic activities and increasing temperatures in Asia, there is an imperative need to investigate the occurrence of compound dry hazards (CDHs). This study aims to conduct a comprehensive assessment of CDHs in Asia, with a specific focus on examining the co-occurrence of heatwaves, droughts, fire dangers, and extreme winds over a 42-year period from 1980 to 2021. To be specific, our research focuses on evaluating interannual variability, identifying geographical hotspots, analyzing temporal shifts in cascading compound events, and exploring the dependence structure within CDHs. Our results indicate a significant increase in the spatial extent of CDHs in recent decades, with varying patterns in annual average frequencies across Asian regions. Particularly significant is the concentration of CDH hotspots within developing countries situated in East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Moreover, our analysis highlights substantial increases in both the frequency and duration of cascading events (CEs), particularly in densely populated areas across North, Central, East, and West Asia. Conversely, South Asia experiences conspicuous declines in CEs. Lastly, our investigation into the dependence structure among CDHs illustrates varying degrees of interdependence among dry hazards and diverse spatial relationships across different Asian regions. We believe that these findings are highly valuable for enhancing natural risk management, improving climate model accuracy, and fortifying strategies to address the evolving risks associated with compound climate extremes under climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000306/pdfft?md5=1daf30ab7dfd4be7214753e7a73d4567&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000306-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140535854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022","authors":"Shruti Nath ,&nbsp;Mathias Hauser ,&nbsp;Dominik L. Schumacher ,&nbsp;Quentin Lejeune ,&nbsp;Lukas Gudmundsson ,&nbsp;Yann Quilcaille ,&nbsp;Pierre Candela ,&nbsp;Fahad Saeed ,&nbsp;Sonia I. Seneviratne ,&nbsp;Carl-Friedrich Schleussner","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100671","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100671","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Attribution of extreme climate events to global climate change as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has become increasingly important. Extreme climate events arise at the intersection of natural climate variability and a forced response of the Earth system to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, which may alter the frequency and severity of such events. Accounting for the effects of both natural climate variability and the forced response to anthropogenic climate change is thus central for the attribution. Here, we investigate the reproducibility of probabilistic extreme event attribution results under more explicit representations of natural climate variability. We employ well-established methodologies deployed in statistical Earth System Model emulators to represent natural climate variability as informed from its spatio-temporal covariance structures. Two approaches towards representing natural climate variability are investigated: (1) where natural climate variability is treated as a single component; and (2) where natural climate variability is disentangled into its annual and seasonal components. We showcase our approaches by attributing the 2022 Indo-Pakistani heatwave to human-induced climate change. We find that explicit representation of annual and seasonal natural climate variability increases the overall uncertainty in attribution results considerably compared to established approaches such as the World Weather Attribution Initiative. The increase in likelihood of such an event occurring as a result of global warming differs slightly between the approaches, mainly due to different assessments of the pre-industrial return periods. Our approach that explicitly resolves annual and seasonal natural climate variability indicates a median increase in likelihood by a factor of 41 (95% range: 6-603). We find a robust signal of increased likelihood and intensification of the event with increasing global warming levels across all approaches. Compared to its present likelihood, under 1.5 °C (2 °C) of global near-surface air temperature increase relative to pre-industrial temperatures, the likelihood of the event would be between 2.2 to 2.5 times (8 to 9 times) higher. We note that regardless of the different statistical approaches to represent natural variability, the outcomes on the conducted event attribution are similar, with minor differences mainly in the uncertainty ranges. Possible reasons for differences are evaluated, including limitations of the proposed approach for this type of application, as well as the specific aspects in which it can provide complementary information to established approaches.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209472400032X/pdfft?md5=9c1b62729a43aaf851157c9e430057e4&pid=1-s2.0-S221209472400032X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140542206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tracking the spatial footprints of extreme storm surges around the coastline of the UK and Ireland","authors":"Paula Camus ,&nbsp;Ivan D. Haigh ,&nbsp;Niall Quinn ,&nbsp;Thomas Wahl ,&nbsp;Thomas Benson ,&nbsp;Ben Gouldby ,&nbsp;Ahmed A. Nasr ,&nbsp;Md Mamunur Rashid ,&nbsp;Alejandra R. Enríquez ,&nbsp;Stephen E. Darby ,&nbsp;Robert J. Nicholls ,&nbsp;Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100662","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Storm surges are the most important driver of flooding in many coastal areas. Understanding the spatial extent of storm surge events has important financial and practical implications for flood risk management, reinsurance, infrastructure reliability and emergency response. In this paper, we apply a new tracking algorithm to a high-resolution surge hindcast (CODEC, 1980–2017) to characterize the spatial dependence and temporal evolution of extreme surge events along the coastline of the UK and Ireland. We quantify the severity of each spatial event based on its footprint extremity to select and rank the collection of events. Several surge footprint types are obtained based on the most impacted coastal stretch from each particular event, and these are linked to the driving storm tracks. Using the collection of the extreme surge events, we assess the spatial distribution and interannual variability of the duration, size, severity, and type. We find that the northeast coastline is most impacted by the longest and largest storm surge events, while the English Channel experiences the shortest and smallest storm surge events. The interannual variability indicates that the winter seasons of 1989-90 and 2013–14 were the most serious in terms of the number of events and their severity, based on the return period along the affected coastlines. The most extreme surge event and the highest number of events occurred in the winter season 1989–90, while the proportion of events with larger severities was higher during the winter season 2013–14. This new spatial analysis approach of surge extremes allows us to distinguish several categories of spatial footprints of events around the UK/Ireland coast and link these to distinct storm tracks. The spatial dependence structures detected can improve multivariate statistical methods which are crucial inputs to coastal flooding assessments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000239/pdfft?md5=121b7efe1178e0671275e96f5c6719a9&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000239-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140345200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-uniform changes of daily precipitation in China: Observations and simulations","authors":"Jianyu Wang ,&nbsp;Panmao Zhai ,&nbsp;Chao Li","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100665","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Daily precipitation of different intensities is expected to change differently in response to global warming. Based on station observations and simulations from the latest climate models, we investigated the non-uniform features of changes in daily precipitation frequency, intensity and amount over China. Results show that western China experiences an overall wetting trend across the spectrum of precipitation intensity, while eastern China exhibits negative trends in light-to-moderate precipitation and positive trends in heavy-to-extreme precipitation with respect to precipitation frequency and amount. Changes in precipitation intensity do not show a spatially consistent pattern of intensification in most intensity spectra, but exhibit the most pronounced intensification in heavy-to-extreme precipitation. Interestingly, changes in precipitation frequency dominate changes in the amount of precipitation for each intensity level, particularly for the spatial patterns. Although climate models show limited skills in reproducing the magnitudes of these observed changes, they show skills in simulating the sign of the changes. Also, they reasonably reproduce the observed non-uniform patterns of daily precipitation changes, especially for changes in the contributions from different intensity levels to annual total precipitation on average over the whole country. The evaluation of current climate models in simulating daily precipitation changes as a function of precipitation intensity suggests that improvement in the detection and attribution of precipitation changes in China can be gained by dividing daily precipitation into different categories.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000264/pdfft?md5=2154500ff2df9e7239c71d5e2493c71b&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000264-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140345199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increased atmospheric water stress on gross primary productivity during flash droughts over China from 1961 to 2022","authors":"Xiazhen Xi ,&nbsp;Miaoling Liang ,&nbsp;Xing Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100667","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100667","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Flash droughts threaten ecosystems substantially because of the fast onset and low predictability. Soil and atmospheric water stress are two main factors reducing ecosystem productivity during flash droughts. However, the long-term trends in the soil and atmospheric water stress on vegetation during flash droughts are unclear. By conducting long-term land surface model simulations, this study investigated the impact of atmospheric and soil water stress on gross primary productivity (GPP) during flash droughts and hot periods of flash droughts, as well as the long-term changes in water stress from 1961 to 2022 over China. The areas dominated by soil and atmospheric stress were 65.2% and 19.9% during flash droughts, respectively. During the hot periods of flash droughts, the areas dominated by atmospheric water stress were raised to 39.4%, and the areas dominated by soil water stress were reduced to 48.7%. During 1961–2022, the frequency, intensity, and duration of flash droughts all showed significant upward trends (p &lt; 0.05) over China. Meanwhile, soil water stress on GPP decreased significantly (p &lt; 0.05), but the atmospheric water stress increased significantly (p &lt; 0.05). Correspondingly, the areas dominated by soil water stress decreased at 0.8%/decade, while the areas dominated by atmospheric water stress rose at 1.6%/decade during hot periods of flash droughts. With sensitivity simulations, we found that the water stress was weakened in the North China plain under irrigated conditions, but the trend was consistent with non-irrigated conditions over China. Our study indicated the importance of atmospheric moisture stress on vegetation productivity during flash droughts under climate warming.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000288/pdfft?md5=79ae330aa307b0353c69efbf0ce5f087&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000288-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140339248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21st century","authors":"Ankit Shekhar ,&nbsp;Nina Buchmann ,&nbsp;Vincent Humphrey ,&nbsp;Mana Gharun","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100666","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100666","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Increases in air temperature lead to increased dryness of the air and potentially develops increased dryness in the soil. Extreme dryness (in the soil and/or in the atmosphere) affects the capacity of ecosystems for functioning and for modulating the climate. Here, we used long-term high temporal resolution (daily) soil moisture (SM) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) data of high spatial resolution (∼0.1° × 0.1°) to show that compared to the reference period (1950–1990), the overall frequency of extreme soil dryness, extreme air dryness, and extreme compound dryness (i.e., co-occurrence of extreme soil dryness and air dryness) has increased by 1.2-fold [0.8,1.6] (median [10^th,90^th percentile], 1.6-fold [1,2.3], and 1.7-fold [0.9,2.5], respectively, over the last 31 years (1991–2021) across Europe. Our results also indicate that this increase in frequency of extreme compound dryness (between reference and 1991–2021 period) is largely due to increased SM-VPD coupling across Northern Europe, and due to decreasing SM and/or increasing VPD trend across Central and Mediterranean Europe. Furthermore, under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) emission scenario, this increase in frequency of extreme compound dryness would be 3.3-fold [2.0,5.8], and 4.6-fold [2.3,11.9] by mid-21^st century (2031–2065) and late-21^st century (2066–2100), respectively. Additionally, we segregated the changes in frequency of extreme dryness across the most recent (year 2021) land cover types in Europe to show that croplands, broadleaved forest, and urban areas have experienced more than twice as much extreme dryness during 1990–2021 compared to the reference period of 1990–2021, which based on the future projection data will increase to more than three-fold by mid 21^st century. Such future climate-change induced increase in extreme dryness could have negative implications for functioning of ecosystems and compromise their capacity to adapt to rapidly rising dryness levels.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000276/pdfft?md5=b9f0169b86e48fbf80ca84b7d9b37123&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000276-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140339249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}