Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

{"title":"Sub-hourly precipitation and rainstorm event profiles in a convection-permitting multi-GCM ensemble","authors":"Marie Hundhausen ,&nbsp;Hayley J. Fowler ,&nbsp;Hendrik Feldmann ,&nbsp;Joaquim G. Pinto","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100764","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100764","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme precipitation on short, sub-hourly time scales has the potential to trigger flash floods, is a particular threat to urban areas, and is expected to increase with climate change. However, little is known about sub-hourly precipitation extremes in convection-permitting climate models (CPMs). We investigate sub-hourly precipitation in the KIT-KLIWA ensemble — a CPM climate ensemble driven by 3 CMIP5 GCMs coupled to the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The domain is centred over Germany with a grid resolution of 0.025<!--> <!-->°(2.8<!--> <!-->km). In an event-based analysis, we compare extreme precipitation down to 5-min resolution for a historical simulation (1971–2000) with the dense radar and raingauge observation network in Germany. We find that 5-min CPM precipitation data adequately reproduces the frequency distribution from radar measurements. To improve the understanding of the precipitation bias in CPM simulations we propose an event-based analysis, that reveals a tendency for the CPM to overestimate the occurrence of longer events, and for a simulation bias in the representation of heavy and short, likely convective, precipitation events. The CPM historical simulations mostly reproduce the event precipitation sum for events leading to 1<!--> <!-->h and 6<!--> <!-->h annual maxima. Maximum 5-min peak intensities of these extreme precipitation events agree with spatially-aggregated radar data but are well below intensity maxima observed in station data. A dominant (very) front-loaded shape for precipitation events leading to 1<!--> <!-->h annual maxima is reproduced by the CPM ensemble. The demonstration that CPMs effectively capture the key features of rainstorm profiles, opens up opportunities for climate change studies and their application in hydrological modelling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100764"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143847797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Filtering CMIP6 models in the Euro-Mediterranean based on a circulation patterns approach","authors":"Matías Ezequiel Olmo ,&nbsp;Pep Cos ,&nbsp;Diego Campos ,&nbsp;Ángel G. Muñoz ,&nbsp;Vicent Altava-Ortiz ,&nbsp;Antoni Barrera-Escoda ,&nbsp;Martin Jury ,&nbsp;Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas ,&nbsp;Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere ,&nbsp;Francisco Doblas-Reyes ,&nbsp;Albert Soret","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100765","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100765","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The performance of a set of 26 CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) in the Euro-Mediterranean region is analyzed based on a classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). Their spatial and temporal variability representation, including the associated surface conditions in ERA5 during 1950–2014, allows a ranking of the best-performing GCMs. GCMs manage to reproduce the annual cycle of the CPs frequency, with a dominant summer CP enhancing warm and dry conditions. However, the correct timing of this pattern and the transitional CPs often need to be more accurate. The analysis of the surface patterns related to the different CPs presents overall good model performance, higher for temperatures than for precipitation, particularly in the transition seasons, for which the GCMs spread in their skill score increases. By blending both the spatial and temporal features of the CPs, the EC-Earth3-CC, IPSL-CM6A-LR, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, MIROC6, and GFDL-ESM4 arise as the best-performing GCMs. This ranking is used to construct multiple model ensembles of climate projections, also taking into account model dependence and spread. Results from this assessment show that future projections of extreme climate indices (2070–2 100)—including the expected increases in the frequency of warm days and dry spells—can be “performance-constrained” and their uncertainty can be more reliably assessed by selecting specific subsets of GCMs, generating tailored climate information at a regional scale. In particular, the warming and drying signals are clearer in the best-performing GCMs, with more robust results in summer than in winter.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100765"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143768409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Observational analysis of long-term streamflow response to flash drought in the Mississippi River Basin","authors":"Bakar Sophia ,&nbsp;Kim Hyunglok ,&nbsp;Basara Jeffrey ,&nbsp;Lakshmi Venkataraman","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100762","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100762","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flash droughts, characterized by rapid onset and severe intensity, pose significant challenges to water resource management. This study investigates the relationship between meteorological conditions and streamflow dynamics during flash drought events within the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) over the period 1980–2022. The MRB has been a hot spot for flash drought events in recent years with significant ecological, agricultural, and economic damages. Existing literature has predominantly focused on studying the meteorological conditions preceding and during flash drought events. However, the media attention on low flows during flash drought events in 2022 and 2023 in the MRB has highlighted the adverse impact of flash droughts on streamflow levels, emphasizing the need to study the connection between flash drought conditions and streamflow dynamics. This study employs the Standardized Antecedent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SAPEI), a daily drought index, to identify flash droughts at the catchment scale and assess the response of streamflow to the identified events across the MRB. Over 1000 flash drought events were identified at the catchment scale. The analysis of these events reveals spatial variations in the frequency, intensity, and duration of flash droughts. The eastern MRB experiences frequent but shorter flash droughts, while the northwest experiences lengthier but less frequent events. The southern region grapples with the most severe drought conditions and is heavily influenced by upstream water management practices. The analysis between SAPEI and streamflow anomalies showed a strong positive correlation in 221 of the 258 catchments with an average ρ of 0.64. The SAPEI-based method for identifying flash droughts and the subsequent comparison with streamflow anomalies is highly transferable, providing a valuable framework for assessing the impacts of flash drought on streamflow and informing water management strategies in other regions. This research significantly contributes to advancing our understanding of flash droughts, offering critical insights for informed water resource management, and bolstering resilience against the impacts of flash droughts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100762"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143642041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"40-Year statistics of warm-season extreme hourly precipitation over North China","authors":"Zilan Pei ,&nbsp;Xiaopeng Cui ,&nbsp;Rouyi Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100761","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100761","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>North China (NC) is confronted with high risks of extreme precipitation events due to global warming and anthropogenic activities. Based on hourly gauge data from May to September during 1983–2022, this study investigates the distributions and trends of extreme hourly precipitation (EHP) and maximum hourly precipitation (MHP) in NC, and their linkages with elevation of stations. EHP is defined as the hourly precipitation exceeding the relative threshold (95th percentile). The results show that the threshold and EHP intensity increase from west to east, while the EHP amount rises from northwest to southeast. Overall, a significant increasing trend is observed in “station-mean” EHP amount in NC from 1983 to 2022, primarily driven by notable increase of EHP frequency. The distribution of EHP variables is closely correlated with elevation. Among the different terrain zones in NC, significant increases in EHP variables are observed both in plains (≤50 m) and mountains (&gt;300 m). Notably, mountain stations show the most pronounced increase in EHP variables, with a noticeable rise in the probability of high-intensity EHP during the latter 20 years of the study period (2003–2022). Analysis of the anomalous circulation and long-term changes of circulation factors reveal that the westward leap expansion of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and significant increases in temperature and moisture are likely the direct causes of the overall increase of EHP and MHP in NC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100761"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143644138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Breakdown and recovery of the eyewall of Super Typhoon Rai (2021) crossing the Philippine Islands","authors":"Yuki Nakamura,&nbsp;Ryuichi Kawamura,&nbsp;Tetsuya Kawano,&nbsp;Takashi Mochizuki","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100763","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100763","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To advance the comprehensive knowledge of the breakdown and recovery processes of tropical cyclones (TCs) that cross the Philippine Islands, we highlighted Super Typhoon Rai (2021)and performed a control (CTL) run and two sensitivity runs in which the topography of the islands was modified, using a regional atmospheric model. The two sensitivity runs consisted of the Flat Land (FL) run, in which the mountain elevation was modified to 0 m, and the Ocean (OC) run, in which the islands were replaced by the ocean. Rai attenuated rapidly in the CTL and FL runs during landfall, and its weakening rate was mostly the same between the two runs. In the two runs, similar decreases in the diabatic heating rate, equivalent potential temperature in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), tangential wind speed, and PBL inflow characterized the eyewall breakdown, suggesting that land surface friction and less surface evaporation facilitate the breakdown process. In contrast, the eyewall recovery was earlier in the FL run than in the CTL run. The wind-terrain interaction due to mountainous terrain may cause the differences in the recovery process between the two runs. When Rai entered the South China Sea, its intensity in the two runs was reinforced rapidly and became comparable to that in the OC run. It was also found that a distinctive change in the observed eye size before and after Rai passes through the islands is not due to the modification forced by the terrain because the eye size in the OC run expands continuously. At the second peak phase of Rai's intensity, the TC sizes in the CTL and FL runs were smaller than that in the OC run, implying that the presence and absence of the eyewall breakdown lead to such a difference. The expansion of the TC size was inhibited even though the eyewall recovered completely after crossing the islands.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100763"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143628646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Mid-century climate change impacts on tornado-producing tropical cyclones” [Weather Clim. Extr. 44 (2024) 100684]","authors":"Dakota C. Forbis ,&nbsp;Christina M. Patricola ,&nbsp;Emily Bercos-Hickey ,&nbsp;William A. Gallus Jr.","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100759","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100759","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100759"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143528290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of urbanization on regional extreme precipitation trends observed at China national station network","authors":"Suonam Kealdrup Tysa ,&nbsp;Guoyu Ren ,&nbsp;Panfeng Zhang ,&nbsp;Siqi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100760","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100760","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An enhanced extreme precipitation (EXP) in or near cities compared to rural areas has been widely observed and verified in individual urban sites. However, at a sufficiently large region, the robustness of evidence for the urbanization contribution to the estimate of EXP trends is still lacking. Here, we present clear evidence from observational records of a dense national station network that a significant urbanization-induced increase in annual EXP changes across mainland China (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01), which is detectable through urban‒rural comparative analysis. This urbanization effect accounts for approximately one-third of the observed EXP trends from 1960 to 2018. The results also indicate that urbanization significantly influences the frequency of EXP changes. The positive effect is especially noticeable in the humid climate zones of the southeastern China monsoon region, excluding coastal zones. Our analysis shows that the observed increase in regional EXP is more complex, and the observational data bias related to urbanization has to be considered in the large-scale detection and attribution of extreme precipitation changes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100760"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143528291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional drivers and characteristics of multi-year droughts","authors":"Jonna van Mourik ,&nbsp;Denise Ruijsch ,&nbsp;Karin van der Wiel ,&nbsp;Wilco Hazeleger ,&nbsp;Niko Wanders","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100748","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100748","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Multi-year droughts (MYDs) are severe natural hazards that have become more common due to climate change. Given their significant societal impact compared to droughts of shorter duration, it is crucial to better understand the drivers of MYDs. Using reanalysis data, this study provides a historical overview of MYDs in California, Western Europe, India, central Argentina, South Africa, and southeast Australia. For each region, the characteristics and drivers of the multi-year droughts are given and compared to those of normal droughts (NDs). Additionally, we investigated the potential for longer-term memory of droughts. Our findings reveal that MYD occurrence and duration vary significantly per region, with relatively larger differences in duration between MYDs and NDs observed in California, Argentina, and Australia. Regions with distinctive seasonality in their precipitation climatology tend to experience faster drought onsets compared to regions with climatologically steady precipitation. Our analysis shows that MYDs and NDs often start with similar conditions but diverge over time, with larger potential evapotranspiration values for most regions, and additional lower precipitation rates for Argentina and India. Longer-term memory is present in Argentina, Australia, and South Africa, which might provide avenues for the predictability of MYDs in these regions. Teleconnections influenced by oceans and land are expected to play a significant role here, while in other regions MYD occurrence may be more subject to chance. These findings can aid in decision-making on water management, preceding and during droughts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100748"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interannual variability of moisture sources and isotopic composition of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall in southwestern Japan: Importance of Asian monsoon moisture for extreme rainfall events","authors":"Xiaoyang Li ,&nbsp;Ryuichi Kawamura ,&nbsp;Kimpei Ichiyanagi ,&nbsp;Kei Yoshimura","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100754","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100754","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The interannual variability of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall has amplified in recent decades. Observational and modeling efforts have revealed large-scale circulations could affect variability of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall by altering moisture sources and transport mechanisms. However, the contributions and thermodynamic processes of major moisture sources, along with their interannual variability, remain unclear. To better understand the underlying atmospheric processes responsible for interannual variability of Meiy-Baiu rainfall, we utilized an isotopic regional spectral model to investigate the moisture sources and isotopic composition of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall in southwestern Japan from 2004 to 2023. Asian Monsoon (AM) moisture in middle levels contributed more (51.4%) rainfall with lower <em>δ</em>²H and higher d-excess in heavy Meiyu-Baiu seasons. Extreme rainfall events showed lower <em>δ</em>²H and higher d-excess with more contribution (57.8%) from AM moisture at middle levels with high precipitation efficiency. Enhanced warm AM moisture feeds the condensation process and enhances atmospheric instability in the middle levels. This facilitates deep convection, leading to more extreme rainfall during heavy seasons. Compared with Eulerian moisture tagging method, Lagrangian backward trajectory method underestimated contribution of AM moisture, due to higher precipitation efficiency at higher altitudes, resulting from stronger convection and ascent accompanied with more precipitation and rainout in the upstream AM regions. The study highlights importance of AM moisture for extreme Meiyu-Baiu rainfall in East Asia. The findings providing valuable insights into understanding the interannual variability of water cycle in East Asia, as well as to improving seasonal forecasts and near-future predictions of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100754"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143509615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of the marine heatwaves prediction performance of the short-term climate prediction system FIO-CPS v2.0","authors":"Yuanlin Wang ,&nbsp;Yajuan Song ,&nbsp;Ying Bao ,&nbsp;Chan Joo Jang ,&nbsp;Zhenya Song","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100757","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100757","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, the frequent occurrence of marine heatwaves (MHWs) has affected the ecological environment and caused considerable socioeconomic impact. Consequently, MHWs prediction has received increasing attention. This study aims to evaluate the short-term (months to interannual timescales) MHWs prediction skill of the First Institute of Oceanography-Climate Prediction System version 2.0 (FIO-CPS v2.0) by using three statistical metrics including symmetric extremal dependence index (SEDI), forecast accuracy (FA), and Brier skill score (BSS). The results revealed that FIO-CPS v2.0 can better predict MHWs in tropical regions, especially in the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean, in which the SEDI, FA, and BSS values reached 0.73, 0.92, and 0.27 at the 1-month lead time, respectively. However, the MHWs prediction ability of FIO-CPS v2.0 has spring prediction barriers owing to the driving factors of ENSO. Moreover, further analysis revealed a definite relationship between the ability to predict MHWs and the ability to predict MHWs duration. The prediction skill of FIO-CPS v2.0 appears to be better for long-duration MHWs than for short-duration MHWs. Under the influence of global warming, FIO-CPS v2.0 can reproduce the increase in MHWs duration observed in recent years, and the prediction skill of some regions has been relatively high in the last 15 years. This study deepens the understanding of the prediction ability of FIO-CPS v2.0, and provides an important reference for the application of short-term prediction of MHWs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100757"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143474282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}