Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

{"title":"Impacts of the local temperature anomalies over Mongolian Plateau on heavy rainfall events in north China during July 2023","authors":"Yunchang Cao ,&nbsp;Ling Zhang ,&nbsp;Haijun Zhao ,&nbsp;Zhun Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100758","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100758","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>From July 29th to August 2nd, 2023, an exceptional precipitation event, referred as 237HRE, struck North China, causing widespread flooding in the Haihe River basin. Utilizing reanalysis data and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, this study delves into the reasons behind the unusual westward extension and northward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), as well as the extreme precipitation during 237HRE. Our findings indicate that during 237HRE, the WPSH underwent a significant anomalous westward extension and northward shift, forming a stable and enduring high-pressure barrier. This barrier caused the typhoon's residual vortex and water vapor transport to stagnate in North China, thereby creating the conditions for this extreme precipitation event.</div><div>The diagnostics reveal that the positive temperature anomaly over the Mongolian Plateau intensified local temperature advection, contributing to the enhancement and northwestward extension of the WPSH. This mechanism has been thoroughly validated using the Interactive Global Grand Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset, that better forecasts of 237HRE usually benefited from better forecasts of the WPSH. Additionally, WRF sensitivity experiments further support this mechanism, demonstrating that when the positive temperature anomalies are weakened, the WPSH retreats eastward and weakens considerably, as well as the extreme event. In particular, the typhoon residual vortex moves to the southeast at an increased speed with the influence of steering currents. Under these atmospheric circulation configurations, the moisture transport pathway also shifts eastward, altering its relative relationship with the Taihang Mountains, leading to rainfall patterns expanding eastward and the intensity weakening in North China. These findings highlight the crucial role of local temperature anomalies over Mongolia in modulating the position of WPSH, which is essential for understanding and predicting the extreme precipitation events in North China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100758"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying moisture and sensible heat flux anomalies for compound drought and heat wave events in the Iberian Peninsula","authors":"Albenis Pérez-Alarcón ,&nbsp;Marta Vázquez ,&nbsp;Alexandre M. Ramos ,&nbsp;Raquel Nieto ,&nbsp;Joaquim G. Pinto ,&nbsp;Luis Gimeno","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100756","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100756","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound drought and heat wave events (CDHWs) are weather and climate hazards whose frequency is increasing in many regions across the globe. Here, we applied a novel Lagrangian atmospheric moisture and heat tracking framework to the outputs of the Lagrangian FLEXPART model driven by the ERA5 reanalysis to quantify the moisture and sensible heat flux anomalies for CDHWs occurred in the Iberian Peninsula in the extended summer (May–October) from 1991 to 2022. CDHWs are identified based on the 95th percentile of daily maximum and minimum temperatures and the self-calibrating Effective Drought Index. The Lagrangian framework is then applied to the top 20 CDHWs affecting more than 50% of continental Iberian Peninsula. Our analysis reveals that these events endure on average 10.35 days, with 2022 achieving the highest number of days (46 days) under dry and hot conditions. CDHW events are generally associated with blocking situations and high-pressure systems, whose effects can be amplified by the local land-atmosphere feedback. The results indicate that the Iberian Peninsula itself is the principal moisture source for the low summertime precipitation, followed by the North Atlantic Ocean corridor and the western Mediterranean Sea, but their total moisture contribution decreases by about 56% during the CDHWs. Moreover, the sensible heat sources pattern exhibits a local-to-regional origin, with ∼35% above the climatological value during the dry and hot events. Overall, this study provides new insight into the underlying mechanisms of CDHWs, which could be useful for helping in understanding these events in the context of global warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100756"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143471237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Human contribution to atmosphere-ocean thermodynamic factors affecting the intense tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea during the post-monsoon season","authors":"Akash Pathaikara ,&nbsp;Minkyu Lee ,&nbsp;Seung-Ki Min ,&nbsp;Soon-Il An ,&nbsp;M.K. Roxy ,&nbsp;K.P. Sooraj","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100755","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100755","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming and its implications for extreme events are important subjects of discussion worldwide. This study analyzes the changes in intense tropical cyclone (INT TC) activities over the Arabian Sea Basin (ARB) from 1981 to 2020 during the October–November season, along with its connection to the rise in thermal energy stored in the upper ocean and column-averaged atmospheric instability of the troposphere. The observations revealed that the frequency and intensity of TCs significantly increased owing to enhanced tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) and moist static energy (MSE), as eventually linked to the rise in sea surface temperature (SST). The increased availability of thermal energy in the ocean and the enhanced deep convection in the atmosphere make ARB more conducive to INT TCs. To quantify the human contribution to these observed changes, we employed a comparative analysis of the responses of environmental variables to individual forcing factors—greenhouse gas (GHG), aerosols, natural (solar and volcanic activities), and combined forcing of all these (ALL)—using CMIP6 multi-model simulations. The results bring the anthropogenic GHG forcing to the fore as an emerging driver in contributing to the increasing trends in SST, MSE, and TCHP, with no other individual forcing significantly accounting for the increasing trend in these background variables. Additionally, this human-induced warming increased the area enclosed by the threshold value of TCHP (70 kJ cm⁻²) and SST (28 °C) in the ARB, and hence made the ARB conducive to the genesis of INT TCs. Considering the large population in the coastal regions in the ARB and casualties related to historical TC disasters, the generation of more violent TCs in the ARB requires urgent attention. The substantial influence of anthropogenic GHG emissions on the increased activity of INT TCs over the ARB mandates better planning of climate change mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100755"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wildfire risk in a changing climate: Evaluating fire weather indices and their global patterns with CMIP6 multi-model projections","authors":"Yan He ,&nbsp;Zixuan Zhou ,&nbsp;Eun-Soon Im ,&nbsp;Hyun-Han Kwon","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100751","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100751","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates potential wildfire risks across different global warming scenarios through a comparative analysis of two prominent fire weather indices: the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Index (FWI), leveraging the latest multi-model projections from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Utilizing the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and the Shapley value, we identify the impacts of meteorological variables on fire weather danger as represented by FFDI and FWI. Our findings reveal that under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5–8.5 high-emission scenario, both FFDI and FWI project significant intensification of fire weather, particularly in historically recognized high-risk hotspots, demonstrating robust inter-model consistency. Notably, the future projections of FFDI indicate the likely occurrence of wildfires with unprecedented severity. The comparative analysis using Shapley values highlights substantial regional and index-specific variations in the contribution of meteorological input variables to fire weather simulations. While these global patterns are generally retained as global warming leads to a systematic reinforcement of all variables, in-depth regional scale analyses further uncover a stark contrast of dominant factors controlling FFDI and FWI. These findings stimulate discussion on the potential adaptability and discrepancies of empirically derived fire models, highlighting the need for future research to advance fire weather modeling with enhanced flexibility and multi-factor consideration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100751"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating seasonal extreme precipitation over Ethiopia","authors":"Daniel Berhanu ,&nbsp;Tena Alamirew ,&nbsp;Woldeamlak Bewket ,&nbsp;Temesgen Gashaw Tarkegn ,&nbsp;Gete Zeleke ,&nbsp;Amare Haileslassie ,&nbsp;Greg O'Donnell ,&nbsp;Claire L. Walsh ,&nbsp;Solomon Gebrehiwot","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100752","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100752","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Historically, Ethiopia has experienced recurrent droughts and floods, which may intensify due to climate change. This study has evaluated the performance of 45 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating ten extreme precipitation indices against corresponding indices from the Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) during short rainy (February–May, FMAM) and main rainy (June–September, JJAS) seasons for the period 1981–2014 over Ethiopia. Ensemble mean of the top-ranking models are also evaluated against ENACTS in reproducing extreme indices over five Agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of the country. The Taylor Skill Score (TSS) was used to rank the performance of the individual CMIP6 models for JJAS and FMAM seasons with respect to ENACTS while Comprehensive Rating Metrics (RM) were used to compute the overall ranks of the models. Our results show that most CMIP6 models reasonably captured the spatial distribution of the seasonal extreme precipitation indices even though they could not reproduce the magnitude of indices, especially in the highland and high rainfall areas of the country such as Northwest and west parts of the country. However, the biases in lowland and low rainfall regions, such as the eastern and northeastern parts of the country, are smaller compared to other areas. More than 30 CMIP6 models underestimated the extreme indices with the exception of consecutive wet days which is grossly overestimated in the highland and high rainfall areas specifically in western parts of the country. Additionally, EnseMean in the tropical and desert AEZs performs particularly better in simulating extreme indices compared to other AEZs. The ensemble mean of the top-ranking models (EnseMean) generally outperformed both individual models and ensemble of all models in the representation of observed extreme indices across all metrics and seasons. Moreover, the performance of individual models is subject to variation based on the season, and the selected extreme indices. It is also noteworthy that their performance is relatively less influenced by horizontal resolution. Further evaluation, focusing on teleconnections such as ENSO and IOD, is a crucial next step for evaluating models and creating a sub-ensemble.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100752"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143430057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonality in atmospheric circulation patterns leading to wet and dry seasons in southeast Australia and implications for droughts","authors":"Irina Rudeva","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100750","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100750","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Southeastern Australia has experienced two major droughts in recent decades: the Millennium Drought that started in 1997 and lasted for more than a decade and the Tinderbox Drought (2017–2019) that was shorter but more intense. As has been reported by previous studies, the termination of droughts in semi-arid regions effectively happens after very wet events at monthly-to-seasonal time scales. Building on this finding, the paper reviews the drivers of very wet events in southeastern Australia across different seasons. From the start of autumn till the end of spring, the rainfall in southeast Australia is significantly correlated with the moisture over the Maritime continent, which may be modulated by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in winter and spring, or other processes such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the warmer months. It is shown that tropical convection interacts with extratropical Rossby waves enhancing low-pressure anomalies that help transport moisture into southeastern Australia, thereby contributing to increased rainfall from April to November. Warm season rainfall anomalies show no direct link to large-scale drivers. By considering these relationships, the study explores the large-scale conditions during the Millennium and Tinderbox Droughts to understand why wet events at subseasonal to seasonal time scales were absent during those periods. It is proposed that the Millennium Drought was promoted by the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which may affect low-frequency rainfall variability in southeast Australia by modulating the relationship between the IOD and the moisture over the Maritime continent, especially during the early cool season. This approach doesn't fully elucidate the severity of rainfall anomalies; rather, it focuses on understanding the termination of droughts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100750"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projected changes in daily temperature extremes for selected locations over South Africa","authors":"Charlotte M. McBride ,&nbsp;Andries C. Kruger ,&nbsp;Charmaine Johnston ,&nbsp;Liesl Dyson","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100753","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100753","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>E</em>xtreme events, particularly very high temperatures, are expected to increase because of climate change. It is thus essential that localised studies be done to quantify the magnitude of potential changes so that proper planning, especially effective adaptation measures, can be affected. This study analysed annual extreme daily maximum temperatures for future climate change scenarios at 22 locations in South Africa, through analysis of a subset of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) model ensemble datasets. The multi-model simulations were validated against observational data obtained from the South African Weather Service for the period 1976–2005. Two study periods of mid- (2036–2065) and far-future (2066–2095) were analysed for two Representative Concentration Pathways, i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bias correction was done on the model data to correct simulated historical climate data, to be more characteristic of observed measurements. While the method included adjustment for variance, systematic underestimations of extremes were still evident. The Generalized Extreme Value distributions were fitted to the bias-corrected projections, and 10-, 50- to 100-year return periods quantile values were estimated. The return period quantile values are likely to increase under both Representative Concentration Pathways in the mid- and far-future periods, with the largest increase in return period quantile values set to occur towards the end of the century under the highest emission scenario. All stations showed an increase in the frequency of days with maximum temperatures above specific critical thresholds, with some stations under the RCP8.5 scenario projected to experience temperatures of greater than 32°C (35°C) for more than 200 (100) days per year by the end of the century, an increase from a baseline of approximately 70 to 150 (14 to 83). For the same scenario, Return periods for 38°C for most stations are projected to be shorter than a year. From the above and considering the likely underestimation in the severity of the projected changes, i.e. too low return period quantile values, the general implication is a strong likelihood that most places in South Africa is likely to experience a strong increase in the intensity, duration, and frequency of very hot extremes in future, with potentially dire consequences to relevant socio-economic sectors. We suggest that future research, comprised of the full set of CORDEX data be conducted to optimise the results of this study.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100753"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distinctive local and large-scale processes associated with daytime, nighttime and compound heatwaves in China","authors":"Yanheng Luo ,&nbsp;Song Yang ,&nbsp;Tuantuan Zhang ,&nbsp;Yueyue Yu ,&nbsp;Ming Luo ,&nbsp;Lianlian Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100749","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100749","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Different heatwave types exert distinctive impacts on the socio-economic and ecosystems, but the potential mechanisms for different heatwave types remain poorly understood. In this study, we identify the hot spots of daytime, nighttime, and compound heatwaves over China during 1991–2022, and provide a systematic investigation of their distinctive atmospheric configurations. The results show that the daytime heatwave clusters in China are closely linked to the various teleconnection wave trains (i.e., Eurasian or Scandinavian patterns) with quasi-barotropic structures. The hot spots are typically located at the center or southern flank of the anticyclone in the troposphere, accompanied by anomalous descending motions and reduced cloud cover, thus providing dry-hot conditions for daytime heatwaves. In comparison, the nighttime heatwave clusters are modulated by the atmospheric circulations that exhibit more local features, and the hot spots are generally located between the anticyclone and the cyclone with anomalous ascending motions. This feature favors the convergence of water vapor and leads to more cloudy and moist conditions, which hinder upward emissions of longwave radiation at night. On the other hand, the hot spots of compound heatwave clusters are controlled by the anticyclone in the middle level while they are located between the anticyclone and the cyclone in the lower level, which can simultaneously cause adiabatic descending motions and enhanced water vapor, conducive to the continuation of high temperature from daytime to nighttime.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100749"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143430056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamical downscaling projections of mean and extreme climate over the Tibetan Plateau under 2 SSP scenarios","authors":"Jiewei Zhou ,&nbsp;Jianbin Huang ,&nbsp;Yao Yao ,&nbsp;Yong Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100747","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100747","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has consistently garnered attention due to its sensitivity to global climate change and the implications of future global warming. This study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven by three global models from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to investigate future mean and extreme climate changes over the TP. WRF's historical simulation (1995–2014) more accurately reproduces the spatial distribution of temperature, precipitation, and climate extremes compared to global models. Projections suggest that by mid-21st century, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, the TP's average temperature will rise by 1.27 °C and 1.91 °C, respectively, with autumn experiencing the most warming. The western plateau is expected to warm more than the eastern part. Precipitation over the TP is expected to increase, especially in the northwest and central-east regions, by 5%–10%, with winter precipitation increasing by more than 10% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Extreme high-temperature events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, while extreme low-temperature events are expected to decrease and weaken. The intensity and frequency of extreme heavy precipitation events are also expected to rise, mainly in the western and southeastern plateau. Drought events are projected to become less severe in north TP, especially in the Qaidam Basin. The differences between WRF simulations and global models in seasonal and scenario-dependent changes underscore that regional models capture finer regional climate details and reveal limitations in global models. Hence, it is crucial to consider these differences when assessing climate impacts and developing adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100747"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143446091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Representation of extreme El Niño events and associated atmospheric moisture flux divergence in the central-eastern tropical Pacific in a CMIP6 model ensemble","authors":"Janeet Sanabria ,&nbsp;Raphael Neukom ,&nbsp;Alan Llacza ,&nbsp;Nadine Salzmann ,&nbsp;Pierluigi Calanca","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100746","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100746","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme El Niño events entail important socio-economic challenges, both in regions such as South America directly affected by their impacts and in regions around the world that are influenced by the associated teleconnections. Uncertainty remains about the ability of recent climate models to reproduce the characteristics and impacts of extreme El Niño events. In this study, we evaluate the ability of 32 CMIP6 models to simulate extreme El Niño events, focusing on their occurrence, their seasonal evolution, and the characteristics of the associated atmospheric moisture flux divergence. Our results reveal the reasonable performance of the CMIP6 ensemble in reproducing the observed anomalies and seasonal cycles of extreme El Niño events. The ensemble mean also captures the average temporal evolution and magnitudes of moisture flux anomalies, but fails to reproduce some important aspects of the associated spatial patterns. Most individual models have marked deficiencies in adequately simulating the seasonal cycle of atmospheric moisture flux divergence dynamics and reproducing a clear distinction between moderate and extreme events. The latter indicates that the atmospheric–ocean coupling and resulting precipitation anomaly patterns over Ecuador and northern Peru are still not correctly reproduced by the individual models. These deficiencies echo previous studies and underscore the limitations of current global climate models in providing reliable insights into the impacts of climate change on El Niño extremes and their consequences for regional atmospheric dynamics and precipitation. This work highlights the need for further research to improve model representations of extreme El Niño events and their associated impacts on vulnerable regions, thereby facilitating more effective risk management and adaptation measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100746"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143387447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}