Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

{"title":"Projected impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow extremes in the upper awash Basin, Ethiopia","authors":"Selamawit Haftu Gebresellase ,&nbsp;Zhiyong Wu ,&nbsp;Wada Idris Muhammad ,&nbsp;Gebremedhin Gebremeskel Haile","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100806","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100806","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the projected effects of climate and Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes on streamflow extremes in the Upper Awash Basin (UAB), Ethiopia. Using high-performing CMIP6 climate models under SSP4.5 and SSP8.5, and future LULC scenarios under Business-As-Usual (BAU) and Governance (GOV) for the 2030s and 2060s, the SWAT model was employed to simulate hydrological responses. Results revealed that climate change significantly affects streamflow extremes, with high-flow indices; Maximum High Flow (MHF), counts of High-Flow Pulses (HPC), and duration of High-Flow Pulses (HPD) showing pronounced increases, while low-flow indices; Minimum Low Flow (MLF), counts of low-flow pulses (LPC), and duration of low-flow pulses (LPD) exhibited substantial declines. For instance, under SSP8.5 in the 2060s, MHF, HPC, and HPD increased by 63.16 %, 26.85 %, and 14.96 %, respectively, whereas MLF, LPC, and LPD decreased by 67.11 %, 34.40 %, and 5.95 %. In contrast, LULC changes demonstrated statistically nonsignificant effects on both high- and low-flow indices across all scenarios and periods. The BAU scenario projected substantial urban and cropland expansion, resulting in decreased forest and shrubland areas, while the GOV scenario emphasized sustainable land management, controlling urban sprawl and increasing forest cover. Despite these differences, LULC-induced changes in streamflow extremes remained marginal compared to the overwhelming influence of climate change. This study highlights climate change as the dominant driver of future hydrological extremes in the UAB, emphasizing the need for climate-focused adaptation strategies to mitigate adverse impacts on water resources and livelihoods in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100806"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in atmospheric circulation amplify extreme snowfall fueled by Arctic sea ice loss over high-latitude land","authors":"Yubo Liu ,&nbsp;Qiuhong Tang ,&nbsp;L. Ruby Leung ,&nbsp;Deliang Chen ,&nbsp;Jennifer A. Francis ,&nbsp;Chi Zhang ,&nbsp;Hans W. Chen ,&nbsp;Steven C. Sherwood","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100802","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100802","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Arctic sea-ice retreat has been linked to increased winter precipitation and heavy snowfall over land, likely due to a combination of enhanced evaporation from ice-free Arctic marginal seas (AMS) and changes in atmospheric circulation. However, their relative roles and contributions remain uncertain. Here, we show that a greater proportion of AMS evaporative moisture reached high-latitude land during the cold seasons from 1980–1989 to 2012–2021. Atmospheric circulation changes added an additional 13 % increase in the AMS moisture contribution, accounting for 11 % of the total increase in AMS-sourced land precipitation. Notably, 46 % of the increase in AMS-sourced extreme snowfall is attributed to circulation-driven landward moisture transport, representing an 84 % increase beyond the effect of enhanced AMS evaporation alone. Further analysis indicates that both the rise in Arctic moisture and the atmospheric circulation shifts are primarily driven by anthropogenic forcing. These findings highlight how atmospheric circulation changes amplify extreme snowfall fueled by AMS evaporation, underscoring the synergistic effects of Arctic sea ice loss and circulation change on high-latitude winter precipitation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100802"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145050374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Differential sensitivities of three types of compound drought and heatwave events to human-induced climate change across the globe","authors":"Shuzhe Huang ,&nbsp;Siqi Wang ,&nbsp;Chao Wang ,&nbsp;Xiang Zhang ,&nbsp;Jianya Gong ,&nbsp;Nengcheng Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100836","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100836","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events threaten ecosystems, water security, and human health through mutually reinforcing thermal and hydrological stress. Using CMIP6 multi-model simulations, we quantify influences of human-induced climate change on three CDHW types (i.e., precipitation-based (CMDH), runoff-based (CHDH), and soil-moisture-based (CSDH)) by isolating greenhouse gas, aerosol, and natural forcings (1960–2014). Greenhouse gas forcing emerges as the dominant driver of global CDHW intensification, with CSDH showing the strongest and most coherent amplification of CDHW frequency and severity. Aerosols partially offset warming-induced increases, particularly in monsoon regions. Interpretable machine learning reveals temperature as the primary driver, with precipitation and vapor pressure deficit playing event-dependent roles. Future projections (2015–2100) under high-emission pathways indicate significant severity growth (6.8 %, 9.4 %, and 15.4 % for CMDH, CHDH, and CSDH on average) and sharply rising population exposure (with slope of 0.22, 0.23, and 0.65 for CMDH, CHDH, and CSDH) concentrated in tropical and temperate regions. These findings highlight the urgency of aggressive mitigation and adaptation strategies that address the compound nature of climate extremes and the spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100836"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145553542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A novel hybrid framework of high-resolution flood susceptibility mapping in ungauged mountainous regions","authors":"Kai Li,&nbsp;Linmao Guo,&nbsp;Genxu Wang,&nbsp;Jihui Gao,&nbsp;Jiapei Ma,&nbsp;Jinlong Li,&nbsp;Peng Huang,&nbsp;Biying Zhai,&nbsp;Xiangyang Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100822","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100822","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flood susceptibility mapping in mountainous regions remains a critical tool for mitigating escalating flood risks in the context of climate change. However, its accuracy is constrained by data scarcity of flood inventory maps and uncertainties in flood susceptibility mapping. This study addresses these gaps by introducing a novel hybrid framework that integrates a physically based Topography-based Subsurface Storm Flow (Top-SSF) model, a terrain-processed Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) model, and Random Forest (RF) model to achieve high-resolution (15 m) flood susceptibility mapping. Trained and tested on data from 80 gauged catchments, the hybrid framework demonstrated excellent performance, with training and test AUC of 0.995 and 0.992, respectively. Its robustness and applicability were subsequently validated against two independent historical flood datasets spanning 2000–2024, yielding high AUC values of 0.895 and 0.969, respectively. Sensitivity analysis identified slope, Topographic Position Index (TPI), and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) as key drivers, collectively contributing 80.46 % to flood susceptibility. Finally, we used the hybrid framework to produce the first high-resolution flood susceptibility map for the Southwest Mountainous Region of China, with potential to significantly enhance early warning systems and improve flood management effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100822"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145412233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating non-stationarity and uncertainty in design life levels based on climatological time series","authors":"Occitane Barbaux ,&nbsp;Philippe Naveau ,&nbsp;Nathalie Bertrand ,&nbsp;Aurélien Ribes","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100807","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100807","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work focuses on inferring design life levels for extreme events under non-stationary conditions. Its objectives are twofold. The first one is to provide a single indicator that summarizes relevant and interpretable information about large values in time series, even when stationarity cannot be assumed. Classical risk indicators such as the 100-year return level become difficult to interpret in a non-stationary framework. To address this, we leverage the existing concept of the equivalent reliability (ER) level. Under stationarity, the ER level coincides with the classical return level, but it differs otherwise. More precisely, the ER level ensures that the probability of having all observations below the ER level during a specified design period is controlled. This definition ensures interpretability in terms of safety or failure risk. A second objective is to capture stochastic and estimation uncertainty, a key aspect in any risk analysis, as uncertainties due to inference schemes can grow with extreme intensities. We incorporate both by using the Bayesian predictive distribution. Although well known in Bayesian statistics, the predictive distribution has rarely been applied to climatological time series risk analysis.</div><div>Our approach is demonstrated on simulated data and on a case study of annual maxima of temperatures at a site in Southern France. To do so, a non-stationary Bayesian hierarchical extreme value model is used to combine data from 26 CMIP6 general circulation model simulations (SSP2-4.5, 1850-2100) with observations. The resulting predictive ER levels clearly indicate that non-stationarity over a design period of interest, as well as sampling and estimation uncertainty, have to be taken into account for risk assessment. For example, the 1000-year posterior predictive ER level for 2050-2100 is higher than any non-stationary 1000-year return level median estimate over the same period, reflecting the increasing risk due to the non-stationarity of the SSP 2-4.5 pathway.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100807"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145254524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving extreme precipitation forecasts in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) using analog methods: A comparison with the GFS model","authors":"Carlo Guzzon ,&nbsp;Raül Marcos-Matamoros ,&nbsp;Maria Carmen Llasat ,&nbsp;Montserrat Llasat-Botija","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100839","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100839","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flood forecasting in the Mediterranean region remains particularly challenging due to the localized and convective nature of extreme precipitation events. This study evaluates the potential of analog-based methods (AMs) to enhance 24-hour precipitation forecasts for Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula), with the broader objective of supporting flood risk management and early warning systems. The tested AMs use geopotential height fields at 500 and 1000 hPa as predictors and differ in complexity, combining Weather-Type classification (WT), Seasonal Standardization (S), and the Perfect Prognosis (PP) framework, a novel configuration in analog-based forecasting. Model performance was assessed against operational Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts using fifth-generation ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA5) as reference, for both moderate and extreme precipitation events associated with historical floods. Results show that AMs integrating Seasonal Standardization and the Perfect Prognosis framework markedly improve 24-hour precipitation forecasts relative to GFS, particularly in reproducing the intensity and spatial distribution of extreme events. These findings highlight the operational potential of enhanced AMs as efficient, data-driven complements to numerical weather prediction models, offering improved skill for flash-flood forecasting and impact-based risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100839"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145575411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Discernability of the vertical vortex structure of pre-existing disturbances and their implication for tropical cyclone formation","authors":"Hung Ming Cheung ,&nbsp;Jung-Eun Chu","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100804","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100804","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The formation of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often rooted in a pre-existing disturbance, yet our understanding of their structural differences and evolution into TCs remains limited. To bridge the knowledge gap, we examine tropical disturbances and depressions in the western North Pacific during the period 2004–2021 from a best-track dataset. Here we show four discernible structures of pre-existing disturbances in terms of their vertical and radial extents: broad vortex dominated by lower-tropospheric vorticity (Cluster 1), narrow vortex with its vorticity maximum in the lower troposphere (Cluster 2), broad and deep vortex spanning most of the troposphere (Cluster 3), and narrow vortex dominated by upper-tropospheric vorticity (Cluster 4), by applying unsupervised machine learning techniques. Out of the 2014 samples analyzed, almost 80 % exhibit vorticity maximum in the lower troposphere, while the others peak aloft. While these different structures have varying implications for stratiform and convective precipitations, there is no clear preference for specific vortex structures in pre-existing disturbances for TC genesis in the next 6 h. On the other hand, the time it takes for TC genesis or the intensification rate is more closely related to the upper-level extent of relative vorticity rather than the local maximum magnitude or radial size of the vortices. Despite the uncertainty concerning the data during the earlier lifetime, the study introduces a systematic approach to categorizing the vortex structures of pre-existing disturbances which provides new insights into their role in TC formation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100804"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145027665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increased precipitation variability at multi-timescales in China since the 1960s","authors":"Xuyang Mo ,&nbsp;Wenxia Zhang ,&nbsp;Tianjun Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100808","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100808","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The frequency and intensity of precipitation have changed significantly in China as previously reported. A relevant behavior is the variability of precipitation, which describes temporal fluctuations of precipitation events. Yet it remains unclear how precipitation variability has changed at different timescales over China. In this study, we show that precipitation variability has increased significantly since the 1960s, averaging 2.3 % per decade across China. The increase exists across the synoptic to intraseasonal timescales. The increase in precipitation variability is evident in all seasons with the greatest rate in winter in percentage, which is approximately three times as much as that in summer. Regionally, precipitation variability has risen significantly in northwestern, northeastern, and southeastern China, but has decreased insignificantly along the wet-dry transition belt extending from the north to southwestern China. Compared to trends in mean and extreme precipitation, the increase of precipitation variability is more widespread and with greater magnitudes. The changes in the top 10 % extreme precipitation events contribute ∼75 % of the amplification of precipitation variability nationwide. In addition to long-term trend, summer precipitation variability over eastern China is modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This study revealed robust increases in precipitation variability over China since the 1960s across different timescales, seasons, and regions, which have far-reaching impacts on droughts, floods, and water resource management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100808"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145118949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of aerosol forcing on the statistical attribution of heatwaves","authors":"Florian Kraulich,&nbsp;Peter Pfleiderer,&nbsp;Sebastian Sippel","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100803","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100803","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense due to anthropogenic climate change. Accurately attributing changes in their occurrence probability and intensity is crucial for effective climate change adaptation strategies. A common practice for calculating heatwave return periods in observations relies on extreme value statistics, where the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) shifts linearly with a covariate on global mean temperature (GMT) to capture the global forced response of climate change (‘standard method’, from now onwards). Although generally effective, this approach does not explicitly include regional aerosol trends, which strongly influence local heat extremes by reflecting solar radiation and altering cloud properties. Depending on the region, aerosol forcing trends can amplify or counteract greenhouse gas-induced warming. Here, we assess the impact of regional aerosol trends on statistical extreme event attribution of heatwaves using climate model simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) large ensemble and single forcing large ensembles. To examine the impact of aerosols on extreme event trends, we introduce aerosol optical depth (AOD) as an additional covariate in the GEV model and compare this approach with the ‘standard method’. Our results show substantial biases of the ‘standard method’ in regions and periods of strong aerosol changes, particularly in industrial regions of North America, Central and Eastern Europe, and East Asia. Including AOD as a covariate significantly reduces these biases and improves return period estimates. This study highlights the importance of incorporating regional aerosol trends into statistical attribution frameworks to improve the estimation of return periods, and thus attribution statements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100803"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145059757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Attributing a deadly landslide disaster in Southeastern Brazil to human-induced climate change","authors":"Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa ,&nbsp;Rafaela Quintella Veiga ,&nbsp;Renata Pacheco Quevedo ,&nbsp;Débora Joana Dutra ,&nbsp;Ana Carolina Moreira Pessôa ,&nbsp;Thaís Pereira de Medeiros ,&nbsp;Chantelle Burton ,&nbsp;Yuexiao Liu ,&nbsp;Nubia Beray Armond ,&nbsp;Rafael C. de Abreu ,&nbsp;Sihan Li ,&nbsp;Fraser C. Lott ,&nbsp;Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo ,&nbsp;Sarah Sparrow ,&nbsp;Liana Oighenstein Anderson","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100811","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100811","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Petrópolis was hit by a devastating disaster in February 2022, when it rained 252.8 mm within 3 h, leading to 200 lost lives and hundreds of people being displaced. Here, we aimed to attribute the extreme rainfall event that led to several landslides in Petrópolis, assess how Land Use and Land Cover changes (LUCC) from 1985 to 2021 contributed to it, and quantify their socioeconomic impacts. For this, we compared natural-only forcing (NAT) and natural and anthropogenic forcing combined (ALL) scenarios of the HadGEM3 ensemble models with observation data. We computed the trends in LUCC and quantified the landslide's socioeconomic impacts from official datasets. Human-induced climate change made this extreme event 45 % and 71 % more likely in short and long-term rainfall, respectively. Recurrence period dropped from 2.36 years (NAT) to 1.63 years (ALL) in the short-term and from 5.66 years (NAT) to 3.31 years (ALL) in the long-term. Landscape trends show an increase in forest formations, but unprotected hilltops that collapsed presented more than 40 % of their area as farming. The total economic loss was more than USD 22 million, with 1 078 people directly affected. The study's findings are valuable in understanding how changes in extreme weather events and land use are affecting our society. We highlight the need for adaptation measures and for more research addressing the attribution of extreme events, especially those associated with disastrous landslides.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100811"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145362430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}