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Where Motivated Reasoning Withers and Looms Large: Fear and Partisan Reactions to the COVID-19 Pandemic 动机推理的枯萎与膨胀：对 COVID-19 大流行的恐惧和党派反应
IF 4.2 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2023-09-10 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12808
Isaac D. Mehlhaff, Timothy J. Ryan, Marc J. Hetherington, Michael B. MacKuen
{"title":"Where Motivated Reasoning Withers and Looms Large: Fear and Partisan Reactions to the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Isaac D. Mehlhaff,&nbsp;Timothy J. Ryan,&nbsp;Marc J. Hetherington,&nbsp;Michael B. MacKuen","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12808","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12808","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Contemporary American politics has been largely characterized by hyperpartisanship and polarization, with partisan-motivated reasoning a thematic concern. Theories of emotions in politics suggest that anxiety might interrupt partisan heuristics and encourage citizens to reason more evenhandedly—but in what domains and to what extent? We use original panel data to assess how anxiety about becoming seriously ill from COVID-19 interacted with partisan attachments to shape political judgment during the COVID-19 pandemic. The structure of our data allows us to assess large-scale implications of politically relevant emotions in ways that so far have not been possible. We find large effects on policy attitudes: Republicans who were afraid of getting sick rejected signals from copartisan leaders by supporting mask mandates and the like. Effects on vote choice for Republicans were muted in comparison, but fear's large effect on independents may have been pivotal.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 1","pages":"5-23"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136071832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Divided Government, Strategic Substitution, and Presidential Unilateralism 分裂政府、战略替代与总统单边主义
IF 4.2 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12821
Aaron R. Kaufman, Jon C. Rogowski
{"title":"Divided Government, Strategic Substitution, and Presidential Unilateralism","authors":"Aaron R. Kaufman,&nbsp;Jon C. Rogowski","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12821","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12821","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Presidents select from a range of instruments when creating new policies through executive action. We study strategic substitution in this context and argue that presidents use less visible means of unilateral instruments when Congress is likely to scrutinize presidential action. Using data on unilateral orders issued between 1946 and 2020, we report two main findings. First, analyzing presidents’ choice of instruments, we show that presidents are more likely to substitute memoranda and other less visible instruments for executive orders and proclamations during periods of divided government. Second, after accounting for the substitution of executive orders with other instruments, we find that presidents issue greater numbers of directives during divided government than during unified government. These findings provide new evidence about the limitations of the separation of powers as a constraint on presidential unilateralism and highlight the importance of accounting for the variety of instruments through which presidents create unilateral policies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 2","pages":"816-831"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12821","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44702165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Religious Mobilization and the Selection of Political Elites: Evidence from Postwar Italy 宗教动员与政治精英的选择：战后意大利的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2023-08-29 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12820
Massimo Pulejo
{"title":"Religious Mobilization and the Selection of Political Elites: Evidence from Postwar Italy","authors":"Massimo Pulejo","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12820","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12820","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Three key characteristics of effective electoral mobilizers have been identified in the literature: reputation, embeddedness in the local community, and the ability to reward and sanction voters. Religious leaders may possess all these characteristics. Can they favor their preferred candidates? Using a novel data set of connections between politicians and Italian Catholic bishops throughout the twentieth century, I conduct the first quantitative assessment of the electoral returns of personal connections to a religious leader. Leveraging the timing of bishops’ nominations within a difference-in-differences strategy, I estimate that bishops born in the electoral district yield a 27% increase in the individual preference votes for their connected candidate. Additional analyses point to the provision of campaign opportunities as the main mechanism driving the effect. These findings suggest that religious authorities can use their local embeddedness to mobilize voters, eventually influencing the selection of representatives in democratic systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 4","pages":"1498-1513"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12820","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136280042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Damaged Relations: How Treaty Withdrawal Impacts International Cooperation 受损关系:条约退出如何影响国际合作
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2023-08-22 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12826
Averell Schmidt
{"title":"Damaged Relations: How Treaty Withdrawal Impacts International Cooperation","authors":"Averell Schmidt","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12826","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12826","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article examines how treaty withdrawal affects international cooperation. By terminating its treaty commitments, the exiting state could earn a reputation for unreliability, making other states less willing to cooperate with it. However, states’ reactions to withdrawal vary markedly, even though it is public behavior. I develop an experiential theory of international cooperation that explains this variation. I argue that withdrawal damages the exiting state's relations with other treaty members, causing them to ratify fewer agreements with it in the future. I test this theory using an original data set of all treaties registered with the United Nations and a case study of France's exit from NATO's Status of Forces Agreement. I find that withdrawal reduces treaty members’ ratification of agreements with the exiting state by 7.9% in the 7 years after exit. This effect increases with the salience and material cost of withdrawal and can spill across issue areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 1","pages":"223-239"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44102875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Meta-Analytic Assessment of the Effects of Emotions on Political Information Search and Decision-Making 情绪对政治信息搜索和决策影响的元分析评估
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2023-08-22 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12819
Amy S. Funck, Richard R. Lau
{"title":"A Meta-Analytic Assessment of the Effects of Emotions on Political Information Search and Decision-Making","authors":"Amy S. Funck,&nbsp;Richard R. Lau","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12819","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12819","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With increasing interest in the role of emotions in politics across the discipline, we review theoretical and methodological approaches utilized by political psychologists. Although theorists have been highlighting the role of emotions in politics for thousands of years, modern political psychologists primarily employ Marcus, Neuman, and MacKuen's (2000) affective intelligence theory to grapple with the consequences of emotions for political attitudes and behavior. We present results from a formal meta-analytic assessment exploring the strength of the empirical evidence for the relationship between emotions and political information search and decision strategies. Overall, we find weak but statistically reliable evidence linking anger, anxiety, and enthusiasm to information search when search is self-reported, but when information search is objectively measured, we find no link between it and anxiety or enthusiasm. Surprisingly, we also find little reliable evidence linking emotions to differential reliance on heuristics or more evidence-based criteria in voter decision-making.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 3","pages":"891-906"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41448145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bilateral Conflict: An Experimental Study of Strategic Effectiveness and Equilibrium 双边冲突:战略有效性与均衡的实验研究
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12810
Charles A. Holt, Thomas R. Palfrey
{"title":"Bilateral Conflict: An Experimental Study of Strategic Effectiveness and Equilibrium","authors":"Charles A. Holt,&nbsp;Thomas R. Palfrey","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12810","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12810","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Bilateral conflict involves an attacker with several alternative attack methods and a defender who can take various actions to better respond to different types of attack. These situations have wide applicability to political, legal, and economic disputes, but they are particularly challenging to study empirically because the payoffs are unknown. Moreover, each party has an incentive to behave unpredictably, so theoretical predictions are stochastic. This article reports results of an experiment where the details of the environment are tightly controlled. The results sharply contradict the Nash equilibrium predictions about how the two parties’ choice frequencies change in response to the relative effectiveness of alternative attack strategies. In contrast, nonparametric quantal response equilibrium predictions match the observed treatment effects. Estimation of the experimentally controlled payoff parameters across treatments accurately recovers the true values of those parameters with the logit quantal response equilibrium model but not with the Nash equilibrium model.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 4","pages":"1431-1446"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49069373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Placebo Tests for Causal Inference 因果推断安慰剂试验
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12818
Andrew C. Eggers, Guadalupe Tuñón, Allan Dafoe
{"title":"Placebo Tests for Causal Inference","authors":"Andrew C. Eggers,&nbsp;Guadalupe Tuñón,&nbsp;Allan Dafoe","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12818","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12818","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Placebo tests are increasingly common in applied social science research, but the methodological literature has not previously offered a comprehensive account of what we learn from them. We define placebo tests as tools for assessing the plausibility of the assumptions underlying a research design relative to some departure from those assumptions. We offer a typology of tests defined by the aspect of the research design that is altered to produce it (outcome, treatment, or population) and the type of assumption that is tested (bias assumptions or distributional assumptions). Our formal framework clarifies the extra assumptions necessary for informative placebo tests; these assumptions can be strong, and in some cases similar assumptions would justify a different procedure allowing the researcher to relax the research design's assumptions rather than test them. Properly designed and interpreted, placebo tests can be an important device for assessing the credibility of empirical research designs.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 3","pages":"1106-1121"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12818","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42417709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Making Global Governance Accountable: Civil Society, States, and the Politics of Reform 使全球治理可问责:公民社会、国家和改革政治
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12824
Ranjit Lall
{"title":"Making Global Governance Accountable: Civil Society, States, and the Politics of Reform","authors":"Ranjit Lall","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12824","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12824","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recent decades have witnessed the adoption of unprecedentedly broad and inclusive accountability mechanisms by many major international institutions, from grievance redress systems to transparency policies. What explains the establishment of these mechanisms—and why have only some institutions embraced them? I argue that adoption is more likely when member states, in particular the most powerful, face “bottom-up” pressures for accountability from dense transnational civil society networks—networks with the capacity to build leverage through agenda setting, coalition building, and advocacy strategies—and when institutions perform governance tasks that are costly to monitor. Analysis of a rich new dataset shows that adoption is positively related to the density of international nongovernmental organizations in an institution's issue area—including only those based in powerful member countries—and that this relationship is stronger when governance tasks entail high monitoring costs. Statistical tests are complemented by qualitative evidence from interviews and other primary sources.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 1","pages":"96-117"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12824","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43762391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Epistemic Injustice and the Electoral Connection 认识论不公正与选举关系
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12806
Justin Pottle
{"title":"Epistemic Injustice and the Electoral Connection","authors":"Justin Pottle","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12806","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12806","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article argues office seekers’ messaging gives rise to a distinct and underappreciated epistemic form of political inequality. Electoral incentives push representatives to orient their rhetoric toward appealing to strategically valuable constituencies, yielding flows of elite cues that disproportionately reflect those groups’ perspectives. When inequalities in strategic value overlap with other inequalities of social power, politicians’ messaging strategies exacerbate the epistemic marginalization of disadvantaged citizens by denying them equal influence on the frames and understandings circulated in mainstream debate. This dynamic is best understood as a democratically perverse form of epistemic injustice distinct from but mutually reinforcing with citizens’ unequal influence on political outcomes. Moreover, I show how such inequalities distort otherwise epistemically salutary mechanisms of electoral accountability and undermine the quality of representative decision-making. I conclude by suggesting hypotheses for testing electoral reform's potential to mitigate these discursive consequences.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 1","pages":"118-131"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49317480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate Cascades: IOs and the Prioritization of Climate Action 气候级联:国际组织和气候行动的优先次序
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2023-08-13 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12793
Richard Clark, Noah Zucker
{"title":"Climate Cascades: IOs and the Prioritization of Climate Action","authors":"Richard Clark,&nbsp;Noah Zucker","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12793","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12793","url":null,"abstract":"<p>International organizations (IOs) are rapidly reorienting around climate change, despite powerful principal states having divergent preferences on the issue. When and why do IOs prioritize climate change? We argue that they do so as a result of an endogenous process of staff learning and rotation. IO staff surveil and implement programs in target states. When working in climate-vulnerable countries, they come to see climate change as an issue warranting aggressive action. As these staff are rotated and promoted, interest in climate diffuses outwards and upwards through the institution. To test this theory, we introduce original data tracking the International Monetary Fund's attention to climate change and the career paths of key staff. We complement this with interviews of International Monetary Fund personnel. We find support for our theory.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 4","pages":"1299-1314"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45967512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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