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How the Party Commands the Gun: The Foreign–Domestic Threat Dilemma in China 党如何指挥枪炮:中国的内外威胁困境
IF 4.2 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2022-10-21 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12739
Daniel C. Mattingly
{"title":"How the Party Commands the Gun: The Foreign–Domestic Threat Dilemma in China","authors":"Daniel C. Mattingly","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12739","url":null,"abstract":"The leaders of one-party states face a dilemma between building a loyal military to guard against domestic threats and a competent military that can guard against foreign threats. In this paper, I argue that leaders respond to increasing domestic threats by increasing an emphasis on officer loyalty. I draw on a new dataset, the first of its kind, of over 10,000 appointments to the People’s Liberation Army of China. The data shows that factional ties to leaders are key for promotion but that leaders generally attempt to balance loyalty with competency. Yet in periods of high domestic threat, civilian leaders promote unusually large numbers of officers with factional ties to themselves. Doing so erodes the competence of the officer corps, potentially leaving the regime more vulnerable to foreign threats. The article challenges the conventional wisdom, showing how autocrats face a trade-off between guarding against internal and external threats.","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2022-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41747240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Military Culture and Institutional Trust: Evidence from Conscription Reforms in Europe 军事文化与制度信任：来自欧洲征兵制度改革的证据
IF 4.2 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2022-10-14 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12745
Vincenzo Bove, Riccardo Di Leo, Marco Giani
{"title":"Military Culture and Institutional Trust: Evidence from Conscription Reforms in Europe","authors":"Vincenzo Bove,&nbsp;Riccardo Di Leo,&nbsp;Marco Giani","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12745","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12745","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Does military conscription reduce the distance between the ordinary citizen and the state? Decades after its abolition, numerous European policy makers from across the political spectrum advocate the reintroduction of conscription to foster civic virtues, despite a lack of empirical evidence in this respect. Leveraging quasi-random variation in conscription reforms across 15 European countries, we find that cohorts of men drafted just before its abolition display significantly and substantially <i>lower</i> institutional trust than cohorts of men who were just exempted. At the same time, ending conscription had no effect on institutional trust among women from comparable cohorts. Results are neither driven by more favorable attitudes toward the government, nor by educational choices. Instead, this civil–military gap unfolds through the formation of a homogeneous community with uniform values. We argue that reintroducing a compulsory military service may not produce the effects anticipated by its advocates.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 2","pages":"714-729"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2022-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12745","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41977503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Money Can't Buy You Love: Partisan Responses to Vote-Buying Offers 钱买不到爱：党派对买票提议的反应
IF 4.2 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2022-10-14 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12738
Kenneth F. Greene
{"title":"Money Can't Buy You Love: Partisan Responses to Vote-Buying Offers","authors":"Kenneth F. Greene","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12738","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12738","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Current theory on vote-buying treats benefits instrumentally as income replacement that always increase utility for the machine. But many recipients react negatively. I argue that responses to selective benefits spring from partisan bias, with opponents motivated to reject a machine that attempts to buy their vote. This new partisan response model helps explain why machines target many supporters, why many opponents remain unpersuaded by selective benefits, and why the electoral return from vote-buying is often lower than assumed. Tests using conjoint survey experiments in Mexico show that initial supporters are 14.5 percentage points <i>more</i> likely to vote for the machine, whereas initial opponents are 8.5 percentage points <i>less</i> likely to vote for it, holding benefits constant. Mediation analysis reveals that initial supporters demonstrate gratitude for selective benefits and view the machine's actions as legitimate, whereas initial opponents take offense and see machine politics as illegitimate.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 2","pages":"644-660"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2022-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"62862570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cleavage Identities in Voters’ Own Words: Harnessing Open-Ended Survey Responses 选民自己话语中的分裂身份:利用开放式调查回应
IF 4.2 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2022-10-09 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12743
Delia Zollinger
{"title":"Cleavage Identities in Voters’ Own Words: Harnessing Open-Ended Survey Responses","authors":"Delia Zollinger","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12743","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12743","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Fundamental transformations of underlying cleavage structures in advanced democracies should become evident in new collective identities. This article uses quantitative text analysis to investigate how voters describe their ingroups and outgroups in open-ended survey responses. I look at Switzerland, a paradigmatic case of electoral realignment along a “second,” universalism–particularism dimension of politics opposing the far right and the new left. Keyness statistics and a semi-supervised document scaling method (latent semantic scaling) serve to identify terms associated with the poles of this divide in voters’ responses, and hence to measure universalist/particularist identities. Based on voters’ own words, the results support the idea of collective identities consolidating an emerging cleavage: Voters’ identity descriptions relate to far right versus new left support, along with known sociostructural and attitudinal correlates of the universalism–particularism divide, and they reveal how groups opposed on this dimension antagonistically demarcate themselves from each other.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 1","pages":"139-159"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2022-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12743","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47560375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Discrimination, Inclusion, and Anti-System Attitudes among Muslims in Germany 德国穆斯林的歧视、包容和反制度态度
IF 4.2 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2022-10-07 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12735
Sharan Grewal, Shadi Hamid
{"title":"Discrimination, Inclusion, and Anti-System Attitudes among Muslims in Germany","authors":"Sharan Grewal,&nbsp;Shadi Hamid","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12735","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12735","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Muslims in Europe and North America face high rates of discrimination and hostility. Less clear are the consequences of this prejudice on Muslims’ political attitudes. Leveraging a survey of 1,330 Muslims in Germany, we show that Muslims who have personally experienced discrimination exhibit higher anti-system tendencies: more supportive of violence, more supportive of Islamism, and less supportive of democracy and secularism. We also find that these patterns are concentrated among Muslims who believe they “suffer alone,” not believing other Muslims experience similar hostility. Finally, through a priming experiment, we find causal evidence that German Chancellor Angela Merkel's inclusive rhetoric and policies toward Muslims may help mitigate these dynamics, reducing perceptions of discrimination and in turn producing pro-system sentiments.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 2","pages":"511-528"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2022-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12735","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41599088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can Close Election Regression Discontinuity Designs Identify Effects of Winning Politician Characteristics? 闭合选举回归不连续设计能否识别获胜政治家特征的影响?
IF 4.2 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2022-09-16 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12741
John Marshall
{"title":"Can Close Election Regression Discontinuity Designs Identify Effects of Winning Politician Characteristics?","authors":"John Marshall","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12741","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12741","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs leveraging close elections are widely used to isolate effects of an elected politician characteristic on downstream outcomes. Unlike standard regression discontinuity designs, treatment is defined by a predetermined characteristic that could affect a politician's victory margin. I prove that, by conditioning on politicians who win close elections, PCRD estimators identify the effect of the specific characteristic of interest <i>and all compensating differentials</i>—candidate-level characteristics that ensure elections remain close between candidates who differ in the characteristic of interest. Avoiding this asymptotic bias generally requires assuming either that the characteristic of interest does not affect candidate vote shares <i>or</i> that no compensating differential affects the outcome. Because theories of voting behavior suggest that neither strong assumption usually holds, I further analyze the implications for interpreting continuity tests and consider if and how covariate adjustment, bounding, and recharacterizing treatment can mitigate the posttreatment bias afflicting PCRD designs.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 2","pages":"494-510"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2022-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45127895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Political Phantasies: Aristotle on Imagination and Collective Action 政治幻影：亚里士多德关于想象与集体行动
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2022-09-08 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12744
Avshalom M. Schwartz
{"title":"Political Phantasies: Aristotle on Imagination and Collective Action","authors":"Avshalom M. Schwartz","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12744","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12744","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article provides a new account of the role of <i>phantasia</i>, imagination, in Aristotle's political thought. <i>Phantasia</i> plays a key role in Aristotle's psychology and is crucial for explaining any kind of movement and action. I argue that this insight holds for collective actions as well. By offering a reconsideration of the famous “Wisdom of the Multitude” passage, this article shows that the capacity of a multitude to act together is tied to its ability to share a collective <i>phantasma</i>: a mental representation of the practical end or goal of their collective effort as good and thus worthy of pursuit. However, I argue that given the subjective nature of <i>phantasia</i>, acting together can be hard. I conclude that since one's <i>phantasia</i> is shaped by one's moral character, a community can achieve a shared <i>phantasma—</i>and thus secure collective action—by means of persuasion, habituation, and education.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 3","pages":"861-873"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41632761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Learning to be Unbiased: Evidence from the French Asylum Office 学习不带偏见:来自法国庇护办公室的证据
IF 4.2 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2022-09-06 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12720
Mathilde Emeriau
{"title":"Learning to be Unbiased: Evidence from the French Asylum Office","authors":"Mathilde Emeriau","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12720","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12720","url":null,"abstract":"<p>What determines whether some asylum seekers are granted refugee status while others are rejected? I draw upon archival records from a representative sample of 4,141 asylum applications filed in France between 1976 and 2016 to provide new evidence on the determinants of asylum decisions. I find that applicants who are Christian (rather than Muslim) are more likely to be granted refugee status, controlling for all other individual characteristics available to the asylum officers making the decisions. However, linking archival records to detailed administrative data, I also show that bureaucrats at the French Asylum Office stop discriminating after about a year on the job. These findings have implications for strategies to curtail discrimination in courtrooms and administrations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"67 4","pages":"1117-1133"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2022-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12720","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43147887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Politicians’ Private Sector Jobs and Parliamentary Behavior 政治家的私营部门工作与议会行为
IF 4.2 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2022-09-04 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12721
Simon Weschle
{"title":"Politicians’ Private Sector Jobs and Parliamentary Behavior","authors":"Simon Weschle","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12721","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12721","url":null,"abstract":"<p>About 80% of democracies allow legislators to be employed in the private sector while they hold office. However, we know little about the consequences of this practice. In this article, I use newly assembled panel data of all members of the United Kingdom House of Commons and a difference-in-differences design to investigate how legislators change their parliamentary behavior when they have outside earnings. When holding a private sector job, members of the governing Conservative Party, who earn the vast majority of outside income, change whether and how they vote on the floor of parliament as well as increase the number of written parliamentary questions they ask by 60%. For the latter, I demonstrate a targeted pattern suggesting that the increase relates to their employment. The article thus shows that one of the most common, and yet least studied, forms of money in politics affects politicians’ parliamentary behavior.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 2","pages":"390-407"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2022-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45453765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Great Society, Reagan's Revolution, and Generations of Presidential Voting 伟大的社会，里根的革命，和几代总统选举
IF 4.2 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12713
Yair Ghitza, Andrew Gelman, Jonathan Auerbach
{"title":"The Great Society, Reagan's Revolution, and Generations of Presidential Voting","authors":"Yair Ghitza,&nbsp;Andrew Gelman,&nbsp;Jonathan Auerbach","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12713","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12713","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We build a model of American presidential voting in which the cumulative impression left by political events determines the preferences of voters. The impression varies by voter, depending on their age at the time the events took place. We use the Gallup presidential approval-rating time series to reflect the major events that influence voter preferences, with the most influential occurring during a voter's teenage and early adult years. Our fitted model is predictive, explaining more than 80% of the variation in voting trends over the last half-century. It is also interpretable, dividing voters into five meaningful generations: New Deal Democrats, Eisenhower Republicans, 1960s Liberals, Reagan Conservatives, and Millennials. We present each generation in context of the political events that shaped its preferences, beginning in 1940 and ending with the 2016 election.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"67 3","pages":"520-537"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46745217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 35
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