{"title":"Making fair comparisons in political theory","authors":"Sean Ingham, David Wiens","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12850","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12850","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Normative political theorists frequently compare hypothetical scenarios for the purpose of identifying reasons to prefer one kind of institution to alternatives. We examine three types of “unfair” comparisons and the reasoning errors associated with each. A theorist makes an <i>obscure comparison</i> when one (or more) of the alternatives under consideration is underspecified; a theorist makes a <i>mismatched comparison</i> when they fail to hold fixed the relevant contextual factors while comparing alternatives; and a theorist makes an <i>irrelevant comparison</i> when they compare alternatives assuming contextual factors that differ in important respects from those they “should” assume given their theoretical aims. We then introduce the notion of a modeling mindset and show how this mindset can help theorists detect and avoid the three types of error. We conclude with a reconstruction of Cohen's camping trip thought experiment to illustrate the approach.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"594-606"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12850","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143845837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Great expectations: The effect of unmet labor market expectations after higher education on ideology","authors":"Loreto Cox","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12836","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12836","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Higher education has massively expanded around the world, yet we know little about the political consequences of this expansion. Students generally have overly optimistic expectations about the returns to educational investment, and the effects of unmet expectations on graduates’ political behavior have been overlooked. I study this phenomenon in Chile with observational and experimental methods, using unique panel survey data collected from new graduates covering 72% of higher education enrollment. The survey tracks students before and after they enter the labor market and includes an experiment that induces variation in their expectations. The panel data reveals that 65% of students have unmet expectations, and both methods indicate that this induces a shift toward progovernment/proequality ideology. Overall, this study shows that the gap between aspirations and reality upon graduation can be an important driver of political attitudes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"68 4","pages":"1416-1430"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142429675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maël van Beek, Michael Z. Lopate, Andrew Goodhart, David A. Peterson, Jared Edgerton, Haoming Xiong, Maryum Alam, Leyla Tiglay, Daniel Kent, Bear F. Braumoeller
{"title":"Hierarchy and war","authors":"Maël van Beek, Michael Z. Lopate, Andrew Goodhart, David A. Peterson, Jared Edgerton, Haoming Xiong, Maryum Alam, Leyla Tiglay, Daniel Kent, Bear F. Braumoeller","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12855","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12855","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Scholars have written extensively about hierarchical international order, on the one hand, and war on the other, but surprisingly little work systematically explores the connection between the two. This disconnect is all the more striking given that empirical studies have found a strong relationship between the two. We provide a generative computational network model that explains hierarchy and war as two elements of a larger recursive process: The threat of war drives the formation of hierarchy, which in turn shapes states' incentives for war. Grounded in canonical theories of hierarchy and war, the model explains an array of known regularities about hierarchical order and conflict. Surprisingly, we also find that many traditional results of the international relations literature—including institutional persistence, balancing behavior, and systemic self-regulation—emerge from the interplay between hierarchy and war.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 1","pages":"299-313"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140254856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Whose critique matters? The effects of critic identity and audience on public opinion","authors":"Yehonatan Abramson, Anil Menon, Abir Gitlin","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12846","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12846","url":null,"abstract":"<p>When evaluating the impact of naming and shaming on public opinion regarding human rights, existing scholarship focuses on messages coming from ingroup or outgroup critics. Diaspora critics, increasingly vocal and visible in recent years, occupy an in-between identity. What, if any, is the impact of criticism coming from such critics? We address this question by fielding a pre-registered survey experiment in Israel, a country that routinely faces diasporic criticism. We find that exposure to criticism from both diaspora and foreign critics (but not from domestic critics) triggered a backlash response on the criticized issue (human rights) compared to a no-criticism condition. However, diaspora critics have a slight advantage over foreigners—their intentions for criticizing the state are perceived as more positive. Despite limited direct impact on public opinion, our findings suggest that the human rights regime could benefit from involving diasporic and domestic actors in their efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 1","pages":"355-370"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12846","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140265148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The contestable peoplehood account of democratically legitimate boundaries","authors":"Tara Ginnane","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12851","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12851","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article presents a new way to assess whether laws that grant membership of a democratic people are themselves democratically legitimate. It thus offers a new answer to the old question of whether a democracy's boundaries can be democratic. The <i>contestable peoplehood</i> account builds from work that sees boundaries as irresolvable paradoxes that generate legitimacy through contestation. It also shows that boundaries shape identity by implying substantive accounts of peoplehood. Connecting these threads, it argues that boundaries are democratically legitimate when their implied accounts of peoplehood support contestation about what the basis of the people should be. It develops two new criteria to assess this, called contingency and non-denigration. The contestable peoplehood account offers a more politicized and pluralist way to assess boundaries’ democratic legitimacy than previously available.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"734-747"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140264504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Endogenous preferences, credible signaling, and the security dilemma: Bridging the rationalist–constructivist divide","authors":"Brandon Yoder, Kyle Haynes","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12844","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How does the potential for socialization affect states' abilities to reassure each other and mitigate the security dilemma? Rationalist scholarship has identified numerous mechanisms by which states can credibly signal benign intentions. Yet it omits the possibility that states' interactions might endogenously shape their identities and domestic structures, and thus alter their basic preferences for or against cooperative outcomes. We present a formal model of the security dilemma that allows the sender's preferences to change endogenously as a function of the receiver's actions. The model yields several key results. First, the possibility of socialization generates incentives for benign actors to risk initiating cooperation, and even sustain cooperation in response to noncooperative signals in the hope of positively socializing the sender. However, conflict can still occur between mutually benign states through novel mechanisms not captured by standard models. These findings carry important implications for recent debates surrounding the US “engagement” strategy toward China.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 1","pages":"268-283"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12844","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143110914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Carl Müller-Crepon, Guy Schvitz, Lars-Erik Cederman
{"title":"Shaping states into nations: The effects of ethnic geography on state borders","authors":"Carl Müller-Crepon, Guy Schvitz, Lars-Erik Cederman","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12838","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12838","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Borders define states, yet little systematic evidence explains where they are drawn. Putting current challenges to state borders into perspective and breaking new methodological ground, this paper analyzes how ethnic geography and nationalism have shaped European borders since the 19<sup>th</sup> century. We argue that nationalism creates pressures to redraw political borders along ethnic lines, ultimately making states more congruent with ethnic groups. We introduce a Probabilistic Spatial Partition Model to test this argument, modeling state territories as partitions of a planar spatial graph. Using new data on Europe's ethnic geography since 1855, we find that ethnic boundaries increase the conditional probability that two locations they separate are, or will become, divided by a state border. Secession is an important mechanism driving this result. Similar dynamics characterize border change in Asia but not in Africa and the Americas. Our results highlight the endogenous formation of nation-states in Europe and beyond.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 1","pages":"132-147"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12838","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143110913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Building tribes: How administrative units shaped ethnic groups in Africa","authors":"Carl Müller-Crepon","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12835","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12835","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ethnic identities around the world are deeply intertwined with modern statehood, yet the extent to which territorial governance has shaped ethnic groups is empirically unknown. I argue that governments at the national and subnational levels have incentives to bias governance in favor of large groups. The resulting disadvantages for ethnic minorities motivate their assimilation and emigration. Both gradually align ethnic groups with administrative borders. I examine the result of this process at subnational administrative borders across sub-Saharan Africa and use credibly exogenous, straight borders for causal identification. I find substantive increases in the local population share of administrative units' predominant ethnic group at units' borders. Powerful traditional authorities and size advantages of predominant groups increase this effect. Data on minority assimilation and migration show that both drive the shaping of ethnic groups along administrative borders. These results highlight important effects of the territorial organization of modern governance on ethnic groups.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"406-422"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12835","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140086626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is authority fungible? Legitimacy, domain congruence, and the limits of power in Africa","authors":"Kate Baldwin, Kristen Kao, Ellen Lust","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12837","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12837","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Scholars increasingly recognize the plurality of leaders who exercise de facto authority in governing communities. But what limits different leaders’ power to organize distinct types of collective action beyond the law? We contend that leaders’ influence varies by activity, depending on the degree to which the activity matches the leaders’ geographic scope and field of expertise (“domain congruence”). Employing conjoint endorsement experiments in Kenya, Malawi, and Zambia, we test whether domain congruence predicts citizens’ willingness to comply with leader requests across different activities and examine the mechanisms that explain its importance. We find limits on leaders’ authority, that the concept of domain congruence helps predict the activities over which leaders have the greatest influence, and that leaders’ domain legitimacy may underpin the relationship between domain congruence and authority.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 1","pages":"314-329"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12837","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140416418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tempering senses of superiority: The virtue of magnanimity in democracies","authors":"Juman Kim","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12858","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12858","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recent years have witnessed growing concerns about mutual disrespect and civic enmity among democratic citizens. Ordinary people often find themselves in a particularly adversarial condition in which they shamelessly disregard their opponents and hold them in contempt, and vice versa. Each tends to assert their superiority while appearing to be impudent to one another. Instead of simply calling for mutual respect—deliberative or agonistic—this article aims to understand why people are prone to treating their opponents with disrespect in such an impassioned situation and how to temper the pleasing sense of superiority while redirecting its very motivational power toward better ends. Drawing primarily from Aristotle's <i>Rhetoric</i>, my account of <i>magnanimity</i> shows that the magnanimous can better manage to interact with their opponents, retaining their sense of superiority necessary for active political participation while at once preventing themselves from the downward spiral of the politics of impudence.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"531-544"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140408671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}