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Causal inference with latent outcomes 潜在结果的因果推理
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-06-16 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12871
Lukas F. Stoetzer, Xiang Zhou, Marco Steenbergen
{"title":"Causal inference with latent outcomes","authors":"Lukas F. Stoetzer,&nbsp;Xiang Zhou,&nbsp;Marco Steenbergen","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12871","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12871","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While causal inference has become front and center in empirical political science, we know little about how to analyze causality with latent outcomes, such as political values, beliefs, and attitudes. In this article, we develop a framework for defining, identifying, and estimating the causal effect of an observed treatment on a latent outcome, which we call the latent treatment effect (LTE). We describe a set of assumptions that allow us to identify the LTE and propose a hierarchical item response model to estimate it. We highlight an often overlooked exclusion restriction assumption, which states that treatment status should not affect the observed indicators other than through the latent outcome. A simulation study shows that the hierarchical approach offers unbiased estimates of the LTE under the identification and modeling assumptions, whereas conventional two-step approaches are biased. We illustrate our proposed methodology using data from two published experimental studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"624-640"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12871","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143846055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Antiglobalization sentiment: Exposure and immobility 反全球化情绪：暴露与不动
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-06-16 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12872
James Bisbee, B. Peter Rosendorff
{"title":"Antiglobalization sentiment: Exposure and immobility","authors":"James Bisbee,&nbsp;B. Peter Rosendorff","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12872","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Individuals with heightened labor market insecurity express more protectionist, xenophobic, and isolationist sentiment. We construct a novel measure of labor market insecurity that combines an individual's industry-based exposure to import competition with an occupation-based measure of job immobility. Immobility captures the similarity of an individual's job to others in the economy, weighted by their prevalence. The holder of a job that is dissimilar to others in the industry or in the state experiences more anxiety regarding their labor market prospects in the face of a globalization shock, and is more likely to express antiglobalization sentiment.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 3","pages":"943-960"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144712107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Blending in or standing out? Gendered political communication in 24 democracies 融入还是脱颖而出？24 个民主国家中的性别政治传播
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12876
Bruno Castanho Silva, Danielle Pullan, Jens Wäckerle
{"title":"Blending in or standing out? Gendered political communication in 24 democracies","authors":"Bruno Castanho Silva,&nbsp;Danielle Pullan,&nbsp;Jens Wäckerle","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12876","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12876","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Women in male-dominated organizations often must adopt more stereotypical masculine traits to advance within those hierarchies. While politics, historically male-dominated, should induce women to blend in, increasing numbers of women in parliaments may give women the opportunity to stand out by not adopting a masculine style. This paper investigates how these contradictory incentives influence female Members of Parliament (MPs) in 24 democracies between 1987 and 2022, applying machine learning to 6.8 million parliamentary speeches to measure how feminine is their speaking style. Findings indicate a socialization effect, whereby women adopt a more masculine style the longer they stay in office, even after controlling for their speeches’ topics. The effect is strongest for women in socially progressive parties. This research highlights the role of parliaments as gendered workplaces, which still lead women to adapt to the male norm, and helps us understand the incentives that shape how women represent women in parliament.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"653-668"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12876","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141370308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trains, trade, and transformation: A spatial Rogowski theory of America's 19th-century protectionism 火车、贸易和转型：美国19世纪保护主义的空间罗高斯基理论
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12870
Kenneth Scheve, Theo Serlin
{"title":"Trains, trade, and transformation: A spatial Rogowski theory of America's 19th-century protectionism","authors":"Kenneth Scheve,&nbsp;Theo Serlin","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12870","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the effect of expanding trade on societal coalitions through its impact on development. We combine a majoritarian political model with a spatial model of trade to argue that trade-induced economic change—by bringing new workers to locations closer to world markets—can lead to losses rather than gains in political power for the factors of production advantaged by increased trade. We study how this phenomenon explains rising protectionism in the United States from 1880 to 1900. Using county-level changes in transportation costs induced by railroad expansion, our estimates indicate that falling costs increased population and farm values but reduced the proportion of farmers. Reduced transportation costs caused a reduction in vote shares for the Democratic Party, which favored liberal trade policies, and an increase in an original newspaper-based measure of protectionist sentiment. Expanding trade alters not only political interests but also the geographic distribution of those interests.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 3","pages":"915-929"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144712114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
“Restoration” and representation: Legislative consequences of Black disfranchisement in the American South, 1879–1916 “恢复”与代表：1879-1916年美国南方黑人被剥夺公民权的立法后果
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-05-25 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12868
Michael P. Olson
{"title":"“Restoration” and representation: Legislative consequences of Black disfranchisement in the American South, 1879–1916","authors":"Michael P. Olson","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12868","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The elimination of Black voting in the U.S. South after Reconstruction is the most significant instance of democratic backsliding in American history. I use newly collected state legislative roll call data from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, consisting of more than 19,400 unique roll calls, to explore Black disfranchisement's consequences for legislative representation. Using ideal point estimates in a panel design, I demonstrate that disfranchisement is associated with substantial changes in roll call voting. In states where competition between Democrats and Republicans structured roll call voting, disfranchisement precipitated shifts away from more-Republican roll call records. In states already dominated by Democrats before disfranchisement, disfranchisement often led to relative shifts toward the agrarian, reform wing of the Democratic Party. These results demonstrate the centrality of Black disfranchisement for the creation of the Solid South and the significant impact of Black suffrage on southern politics in the years following Reconstruction.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"387-405"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143846200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The logic of idealization in political theory 政治理论中的理想化逻辑
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12869
Jonathan Leader Maynard
{"title":"The logic of idealization in political theory","authors":"Jonathan Leader Maynard","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12869","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The role of ideals and idealizations is among the most vigorously debated methodological questions in political theory. Yet, the debate seems at an impasse. This paper argues that this reflects a fundamental ambiguity over idealization's intended <i>inferential logic</i>: the precise way in which idealizations <i>might</i> yield normative knowledge. I identify two tacit understandings of idealization—a dominant “telic” understanding and a less overt “heuristic” understanding—which, though importantly different, are rarely distinguished. I argue that delineating these understandings, and shifting from telic to heuristic idealization, recasts various unresolved methodological problems for political theorists, while productively connecting their discussions to work on idealization in political science and the practice and philosophy of science more broadly. I then provide a systematic account of how idealization might be used heuristically in normative reasoning and explicate the advantages of such an approach for promoting rigorous, relevant, and inclusive methodologies in political theory.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 3","pages":"930-942"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12869","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144712119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Austerity, economic vulnerability, and populism 紧缩、经济脆弱性和民粹主义
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12865
Leonardo Baccini, Thomas Sattler
{"title":"Austerity, economic vulnerability, and populism","authors":"Leonardo Baccini,&nbsp;Thomas Sattler","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12865","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12865","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Governments have repeatedly adjusted fiscal policy in recent decades. We examine the political effects of these adjustments in Europe since the 1990s using both district-level election outcomes and individual-level voting data. We expect austerity to increase populist votes, but only among economically vulnerable voters, who are hit the hardest by austerity. We identify economically vulnerable regions as those with a high share of low-skilled workers, workers in manufacturing and in jobs with a high routine-task intensity. The analysis of district-level elections demonstrates that austerity increases support for populist parties in economically vulnerable regions, but has little effect in less vulnerable regions. The individual-level analysis confirms these findings. Our results suggest that the success of populist parties hinges on the government's failure to protect the losers of structural economic change. The economic origins of populism are thus not purely external; the populist backlash is triggered by internal factors, notably public policies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 3","pages":"899-914"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12865","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144712106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gender and reactions to speeches in German parliamentary debates 性别与对德国议会辩论发言的反应
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12867
Elliott Ash, Johann Krümmel, Jonathan B. Slapin
{"title":"Gender and reactions to speeches in German parliamentary debates","authors":"Elliott Ash,&nbsp;Johann Krümmel,&nbsp;Jonathan B. Slapin","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12867","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12867","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Are nonverbal reactions during parliamentary debate gendered? Do male and female members of parliament (MPs) experience applause or jeering differently? In short, yes, and the gendered nature of a speech matters. Using an original corpus of over 544,000 speeches given in German state parliaments, we first estimate the gendered nature of parliamentary speeches and then examine how reactions to speeches given by male and female MPs differ. Female and male MPs receive similarly positive and negative reactions to their speeches on average, but they receive different reactions depending on the gendered nature of the speeches. Speeches using language associated with women's topics receive fewer reactions overall and even fewer when delivered by men. The gendered nature of parliamentary interjections could affect how women MPs view their position and how women voters view parliament.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 3","pages":"866-880"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12867","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140999808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Playing politics with traffic fines: Sheriff elections and political cycles in traffic fines revenue 交通罚款的政治游戏：警长选举与交通罚款收入的政治周期
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12866
Min Su, Christian Buerger
{"title":"Playing politics with traffic fines: Sheriff elections and political cycles in traffic fines revenue","authors":"Min Su,&nbsp;Christian Buerger","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12866","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12866","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The political budget cycle theory has extensively documented how politicians manipulate policies during election years to gain an electoral advantage. This paper focuses on county sheriffs, crucial but often neglected local officials, and investigates their opportunistic political behavior during elections. Using a panel data set covering 57 California county governments over four election cycles, we find compelling evidence of traffic enforcement policy manipulation by county sheriffs during election years. Specifically, a county's per capita traffic fines revenue is 9% lower in the election than in nonelection years. The magnitude of the political cycle intensifies when an election is competitive. Our findings contribute to the political budget cycle theory and provide timely insights into the ongoing debate surrounding law enforcement reform and local governments’ increasing reliance on fines and fees revenue.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 1","pages":"164-175"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12866","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141000206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Legislature size and welfare: Evidence from Brazil 立法机关规模与福利：来自巴西的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12843
Umberto Mignozzetti, Gabriel Cepaluni, Danilo Freire
{"title":"Legislature size and welfare: Evidence from Brazil","authors":"Umberto Mignozzetti,&nbsp;Gabriel Cepaluni,&nbsp;Danilo Freire","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12843","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How does legislature size impact public service provision? Despite the importance of institutional design for democratic governance, the effect of legislative features on citizen welfare remains little understood. In this article, we use a formal model to show that increasing legislature size improves public goods delivery. We argue that changes in bargaining costs depend on whether additional legislators share the executive's party affiliation: More opposition members reduce the equilibrium public goods provision, while more government-aligned members increase it. We test this theory by exploiting sharp discontinuities in city-council size in Brazil. We show that an additional city councilor has a 91% chance of belonging to the mayoral coalition, and this significantly improves primary school enrollment and infant mortality rates. To explore possible mechanisms, we surveyed 174 former city councilors and analyzed 346,553 bills proposed between 2005 and 2008. This article has implications for the design of representative institutions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 3","pages":"831-846"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144712115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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