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A model of policy timing: Hedging, pandering, and gambling 政策时机的模型：套期保值、迎合和赌博
IF 4.7 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2026-07-15 Epub Date: 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12993
Daniel Gibbs
{"title":"A model of policy timing: Hedging, pandering, and gambling","authors":"Daniel Gibbs","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12993","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12993","url":null,"abstract":"<p>I study a political agency model where a reelection-seeking politician chooses when to make policy and a voter learns about the politician's competence from its timing, substance, and outcome. It takes time for the politician to receive information about which policy is in the voter's best interest and for the effect of policy to be observed. Due to perverse electoral incentives, politicians engage in three behaviors that limit electoral accountability. First, politicians <i>hedge</i> by delaying policy to hide potential policy failure from voters. Second, politicians <i>pander</i> late in the electoral cycle where they cannot credibly campaign on the success of an unpopular policy. Third, in the hope of producing visible policy success, politicians <i>gamble</i> by making a prompt policy choice when it is in the voter's best interest to delay. I show how politicians use these behaviors strategically in response to different contingencies and study their implications for electoral accountability.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"70 3","pages":"960-973"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148522900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The logic of secret alliances 秘密联盟的逻辑
IF 4.7 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2026-07-15 Epub Date: 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12997
Peter Bils, Bradley C. Smith
{"title":"The logic of secret alliances","authors":"Peter Bils,&nbsp;Bradley C. Smith","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12997","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12997","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Alliances are typically understood as agreements intended to deter aggression from enemy states. By signaling an ally's commitment to a protégé state, a shared enemy may be deterred from attacking. In light of this signaling logic, secret alliances are puzzling. Because they are not observed, secret alliances by definition cannot achieve deterrence through signaling. So why do states enter into these secret agreements? We argue that alliances may also act as a signal of a state's intentions, potentially undermining deterrence. If a new alliance signals that the members' interests are unaligned with those of a shared enemy, the enemy may be provoked into war. As a consequence, states sometimes want to keep alliance agreements secret. To develop this argument, we analyze a formal model in which states may enter into secret or public alliance agreements. We find that the possibility of secret alliances has general effects on deterrence—possibly undermining the deterrent value of concurrent public alliances.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"70 3","pages":"1062-1076"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12997","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148534151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
States, cities, and border control: Do sub-state collectives have a right to protect vulnerable people on the move? 州、城市和边境管制：州以下的集体组织有权保护流动中的弱势群体吗？
IF 4.7 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2026-07-15 Epub Date: 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12998
Kim Angell
{"title":"States, cities, and border control: Do sub-state collectives have a right to protect vulnerable people on the move?","authors":"Kim Angell","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12998","url":null,"abstract":"<p>It is beyond doubt that states everywhere practice discretionary border control. However, in normative political theory, there is vigorous debate about the justifiability of this practice. Some theorists appeal to border crossers’ interest in free movement, envisioning an open borders utopia, while others emphasize the value of collective self-determination, defending strong border control rights for states. Both perspectives focus on two primary interest-holders: state collectives and individual border crossers. This analysis offers a novel perspective by arguing that cities—and sub-state collectives in general—may also have significant interests in immigration policy. Through empirical examples like Europe's “Solidarity Cities” and North American sanctuary cities, the paper argues that cities often possess self-determination–based rights to protect an additional quota of vulnerable border crossers, beyond those their state protects. This conclusion is surprising because appeals to self-determination typically defend a state's right to limit migration. Yet, it is one that proponents of the self-determination view have reason to accept.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"70 3","pages":"1132-1145"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148534152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Complementarity in alliances: How strategic compatibility and hierarchy promote efficient cooperation in international security 联盟的互补性：战略兼容性和层级性如何促进国际安全领域的有效合作
IF 4.7 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2026-07-15 Epub Date: 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12992
J. Andrés Gannon
{"title":"Complementarity in alliances: How strategic compatibility and hierarchy promote efficient cooperation in international security","authors":"J. Andrés Gannon","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12992","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12992","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How can defense alliances reap the efficiency gains of working together when coordination and opportunism costs are high? Although specializing as part of a collective comes with economic and functional benefits, states must bargain over the distribution of those gains and ensure the costs of collective action are minimized. I argue that states can overcome these problems by forming alliances with high strategic compatibility and hierarchy. This approach minimizes opportunism and coordination costs by efficiently distributing defense capabilities, encouraging complementarity rather than redundancy. I demonstrate this by developing a novel network-level measure of division of labor and applying it to data on national military capabilities from 1970 to 2014. This research not only enhances understanding of the modern international system but also underscores the importance of these considerations for intra-alliance bargaining more broadly.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"70 3","pages":"925-945"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12992","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148522893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The super rich and the rest: Campaign finance pressures and the wealth of politicians 超级富豪和其他人：竞选资金压力和政治家的财富
IF 4.7 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2026-07-15 Epub Date: 2025-07-06 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12996
Lucia Motolinia, Marko Klašnja, Simon Weschle
{"title":"The super rich and the rest: Campaign finance pressures and the wealth of politicians","authors":"Lucia Motolinia,&nbsp;Marko Klašnja,&nbsp;Simon Weschle","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12996","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12996","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We provide a comprehensive theoretical and empirical account of the relationship between campaign finance pressures and the wealth of politicians. We argue that the heavily right-skewed wealth distributions observed in contemporary societies translate into similarly skewed distributions of campaign resources. Such unequal resources mean that greater pressures to spend on campaigns disproportionately benefit the <i>very</i> wealthy. We also identify several conditions that determine the extent of the financing advantages of the very rich, and at whose expense they accrue. We test our propositions using a unique original data set on the wealth of more than 23,000 national legislators from 41 countries, as well as by exploiting quasi-random variation in financing pressures provided by recent campaign finance reforms in Brazil and Chile. The analyses consistently show that greater financing pressures lead to greater shares of wealthy, and especially very wealthy legislators, and that these advantages vary in ways consistent with our predictions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"70 3","pages":"1115-1131"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148532598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How FDI reshapes host markets’ trade profile and politics 外国直接投资如何重塑东道国市场的贸易格局和政治
IF 4.7 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2026-07-15 Epub Date: 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.70010
In Song Kim, Steven Liao, Sayumi Miyano
{"title":"How FDI reshapes host markets’ trade profile and politics","authors":"In Song Kim,&nbsp;Steven Liao,&nbsp;Sayumi Miyano","doi":"10.1111/ajps.70010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.70010","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A fast-growing literature indicates that firms’ engagement in foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade is key to understanding deepening global value chains and their political implications. However, existing studies have mainly focused on the ramifications for FDI home countries while often overlooking the <i>firm-product level</i> interactions between FDI and trade, where their interdependencies manifest. This study examines how firms’ FDI reshapes host countries’ trade profiles at this level, empowering new political coalitions for trade liberalization. Analyzing greenfield FDI projects globally since 2003, we find that hosts experienced an average increase of over 45 export products in the following year. To overcome the challenges of connecting firms to products, we link FDI data with Vietnamese customs records. We find that Vietnamese export (import) volumes of FDI-related products increased by 90% (30%) within 4 years of initial investments. Importantly, these products also benefited from more substantial tariff cuts in bilateral Free Trade Agreements.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"70 3","pages":"1097-1114"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.70010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148533012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mitigating tough times? How material self-interest influences citizens' welfare state behavior 缓解艰难时期？物质私利如何影响公民的福利国家行为
IF 4.7 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2026-07-15 Epub Date: 2025-04-12 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12978
Matias Engdal Christensen
{"title":"Mitigating tough times? How material self-interest influences citizens' welfare state behavior","authors":"Matias Engdal Christensen","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12978","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12978","url":null,"abstract":"<p>It is a long-standing view that citizens support the welfare state because it provides insurance against future income losses. However, existing studies have struggled to isolate the effect of future-oriented material self-interest from normative and political predispositions. Using population-wide, administrative panel data from Denmark, I study citizens' choice to take up government-funded social insurance in times of economic uncertainty: a critical case for material self-interest to be at stake. Using as-if random variation in exposure to signals of unemployment risks, I show that economic uncertainty increases the probability of buying supplementary unemployment insurance coverage. Linking the administrative records to individual-level survey data reveals that exposure to unemployment risk signals increases feelings of job insecurity, further suggesting that economic worries shape citizens' behavior within the welfare state. These findings highlight the role of material self-interest in influencing the welfare state, providing valuable insights for policymakers when designing social insurance policies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"70 3","pages":"864-880"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12978","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148533312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Decentralized propaganda in the era of digital media: The massive presence of the Chinese state on Douyin 数字媒体时代的去中心化宣传：抖音上中国政府的大量存在
IF 4.7 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2026-07-15 Epub Date: 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12990
Yingdan Lu, Jennifer Pan, Xu Xu, Yiqing Xu
{"title":"Decentralized propaganda in the era of digital media: The massive presence of the Chinese state on Douyin","authors":"Yingdan Lu,&nbsp;Jennifer Pan,&nbsp;Xu Xu,&nbsp;Yiqing Xu","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12990","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12990","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The rise of social media in the digital era poses unprecedented challenges to authoritarian regimes that aim to influence public attitudes and behaviors. To address these challenges, we argue that authoritarian regimes have adopted a decentralized approach to produce and disseminate propaganda on social media. In this model, tens of thousands of government workers and insiders are mobilized to produce and disseminate propaganda, and content flows in a multidirectional, rather than a top-down manner. We empirically demonstrate the existence of this new model in China by creating a novel data set of over five million videos from over 18,000 regime-affiliated accounts on Douyin, a popular social media platform in China. This paper supplements prevailing understandings of propaganda by showing theoretically and empirically how digital technologies are transforming not only the content of propaganda, but also how propaganda materials are produced and disseminated.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"70 3","pages":"990-1006"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12990","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148534342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Testing the stability and temporal order of People of Color Identity and People of Color Solidarity: New evidence from a survey panel of Asian, Black, Latino, and multiracial adults 测试有色人种认同和有色人种团结的稳定性和时间顺序：来自亚洲人、黑人、拉丁裔和多种族成年人调查小组的新证据
IF 4.7 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2026-07-15 Epub Date: 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.70009
Andrew M. Engelhardt, Efrén Pérez, Seth K. Goldman, Yuen J. Huo, Tatishe Nteta, Linda R. Tropp
{"title":"Testing the stability and temporal order of People of Color Identity and People of Color Solidarity: New evidence from a survey panel of Asian, Black, Latino, and multiracial adults","authors":"Andrew M. Engelhardt,&nbsp;Efrén Pérez,&nbsp;Seth K. Goldman,&nbsp;Yuen J. Huo,&nbsp;Tatishe Nteta,&nbsp;Linda R. Tropp","doi":"10.1111/ajps.70009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.70009","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Two crucial variables in the study of people of color (PoC) are <i>identity</i> and <i>solidarity</i>. Existing work construes <i>identity</i> as more stable than <i>solidarity</i>, with <i>identity</i> shifting <i>solidarity</i> between PoC. However, this view rests on cross-sectional evidence, limiting researchers’ ability to formally appraise these key variables’ stability and sequence. We report the first longitudinal evidence on these matters by leveraging a unique two-wave survey of Asian, Black, Latino, and multiracial adults. First, contrary to the current conceptualization, we find PoC <i>solidarity</i> is as stable as PoC <i>identity</i>, suggesting two alternate but durable sources of political unity among these groups. Second, consistent with its present conceptualization, we show PoC <i>identity</i> is associated with shifts in <i>solidarity</i>, but not vice versa. Third, we offer evidence that the dynamics between these variables hold uniformly across different PoC subgroups, highlighting this mega-group's coherence and political relevance. We conclude by discussing our results’ implications for US inter-minority politics.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"70 3","pages":"881-894"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148522831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Troubles and Beyond: The impact of a museum exhibit on a post-conflict society 麻烦与超越：博物馆展览对冲突后社会的影响
IF 4.7 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2026-07-15 Epub Date: 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.70001
Laia Balcells, Elsa Voytas
{"title":"The Troubles and Beyond: The impact of a museum exhibit on a post-conflict society","authors":"Laia Balcells,&nbsp;Elsa Voytas","doi":"10.1111/ajps.70001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.70001","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In divided societies, can museums contribute to healing and recovery? While efforts to memorialize past violence typically aim to promote tolerance and reconciliation, remembering could exacerbate divisions in recovering societies where the past is deeply contested. We examine a transitional justice museum exhibit in Northern Ireland. We combine evidence from nearly 1,400 participants across focus groups, a field experiment at the Troubles and Beyond exhibit in the Ulster Museum, and a survey that randomly exposed respondents to exhibit materials. Our findings indicate that although individuals experience strong emotional responses to the exhibit materials, these emotions do not correspond to shifts in perceptions of past violent conflict or preferences for addressing it. These results may reflect the balanced curation of the museum exhibit, which avoids imposing a singular narrative. While this approach prevents further polarization, it also limits the potential for fostering social cohesion.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"70 3","pages":"1146-1163"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.70001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148534232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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