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The politics of rejection: Explaining Chinese import refusals 拒绝的政治：解释中国的进口拒绝
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12883
Sung Eun Kim, Rebecca L. Perlman, Grace Zeng
{"title":"The politics of rejection: Explaining Chinese import refusals","authors":"Sung Eun Kim,&nbsp;Rebecca L. Perlman,&nbsp;Grace Zeng","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12883","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12883","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Health and safety standards offer a convenient means by which governments can claim to be protecting the population, even while pursuing more parochial goals. In the realm of international trade, such standards have most often been studied as a means of veiled protectionism. Yet precisely because health and safety standards create ambiguity about their intent, nations may seek to use them for goals that extend well beyond protecting domestic industry. We theorize that governments will, at times, enforce regulations in ways intended to exact political retribution. To show this, we collect original data on import refusals by Chinese border inspectors between 2011 and 2019. Though ostensibly intended to keep dangerous products out of the hands of Chinese consumers, we demonstrate that import refusals have systematically been used by the Chinese government as a way to punish states that act against China's interest.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"438-454"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143846148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Causal inference with latent outcomes 潜在结果的因果推理
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-06-16 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12871
Lukas F. Stoetzer, Xiang Zhou, Marco Steenbergen
{"title":"Causal inference with latent outcomes","authors":"Lukas F. Stoetzer,&nbsp;Xiang Zhou,&nbsp;Marco Steenbergen","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12871","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12871","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While causal inference has become front and center in empirical political science, we know little about how to analyze causality with latent outcomes, such as political values, beliefs, and attitudes. In this article, we develop a framework for defining, identifying, and estimating the causal effect of an observed treatment on a latent outcome, which we call the latent treatment effect (LTE). We describe a set of assumptions that allow us to identify the LTE and propose a hierarchical item response model to estimate it. We highlight an often overlooked exclusion restriction assumption, which states that treatment status should not affect the observed indicators other than through the latent outcome. A simulation study shows that the hierarchical approach offers unbiased estimates of the LTE under the identification and modeling assumptions, whereas conventional two-step approaches are biased. We illustrate our proposed methodology using data from two published experimental studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"624-640"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12871","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143846055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Blending in or standing out? Gendered political communication in 24 democracies 融入还是脱颖而出？24 个民主国家中的性别政治传播
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12876
Bruno Castanho Silva, Danielle Pullan, Jens Wäckerle
{"title":"Blending in or standing out? Gendered political communication in 24 democracies","authors":"Bruno Castanho Silva,&nbsp;Danielle Pullan,&nbsp;Jens Wäckerle","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12876","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12876","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Women in male-dominated organizations often must adopt more stereotypical masculine traits to advance within those hierarchies. While politics, historically male-dominated, should induce women to blend in, increasing numbers of women in parliaments may give women the opportunity to stand out by not adopting a masculine style. This paper investigates how these contradictory incentives influence female Members of Parliament (MPs) in 24 democracies between 1987 and 2022, applying machine learning to 6.8 million parliamentary speeches to measure how feminine is their speaking style. Findings indicate a socialization effect, whereby women adopt a more masculine style the longer they stay in office, even after controlling for their speeches’ topics. The effect is strongest for women in socially progressive parties. This research highlights the role of parliaments as gendered workplaces, which still lead women to adapt to the male norm, and helps us understand the incentives that shape how women represent women in parliament.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"653-668"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12876","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141370308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
“Restoration” and representation: Legislative consequences of Black disfranchisement in the American South, 1879–1916 “恢复”与代表：1879-1916年美国南方黑人被剥夺公民权的立法后果
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-05-25 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12868
Michael P. Olson
{"title":"“Restoration” and representation: Legislative consequences of Black disfranchisement in the American South, 1879–1916","authors":"Michael P. Olson","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12868","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The elimination of Black voting in the U.S. South after Reconstruction is the most significant instance of democratic backsliding in American history. I use newly collected state legislative roll call data from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, consisting of more than 19,400 unique roll calls, to explore Black disfranchisement's consequences for legislative representation. Using ideal point estimates in a panel design, I demonstrate that disfranchisement is associated with substantial changes in roll call voting. In states where competition between Democrats and Republicans structured roll call voting, disfranchisement precipitated shifts away from more-Republican roll call records. In states already dominated by Democrats before disfranchisement, disfranchisement often led to relative shifts toward the agrarian, reform wing of the Democratic Party. These results demonstrate the centrality of Black disfranchisement for the creation of the Solid South and the significant impact of Black suffrage on southern politics in the years following Reconstruction.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"387-405"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143846200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Playing politics with traffic fines: Sheriff elections and political cycles in traffic fines revenue 交通罚款的政治游戏：警长选举与交通罚款收入的政治周期
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12866
Min Su, Christian Buerger
{"title":"Playing politics with traffic fines: Sheriff elections and political cycles in traffic fines revenue","authors":"Min Su,&nbsp;Christian Buerger","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12866","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12866","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The political budget cycle theory has extensively documented how politicians manipulate policies during election years to gain an electoral advantage. This paper focuses on county sheriffs, crucial but often neglected local officials, and investigates their opportunistic political behavior during elections. Using a panel data set covering 57 California county governments over four election cycles, we find compelling evidence of traffic enforcement policy manipulation by county sheriffs during election years. Specifically, a county's per capita traffic fines revenue is 9% lower in the election than in nonelection years. The magnitude of the political cycle intensifies when an election is competitive. Our findings contribute to the political budget cycle theory and provide timely insights into the ongoing debate surrounding law enforcement reform and local governments’ increasing reliance on fines and fees revenue.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 1","pages":"164-175"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12866","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141000206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The gendered costs of stigma: How experiences of conflict-related sexual violence affect civic engagement for women and men 污名化的性别成本：与冲突有关的性暴力经历如何影响男女公民参与
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12863
Carlo Koos, Richard Traunmüller
{"title":"The gendered costs of stigma: How experiences of conflict-related sexual violence affect civic engagement for women and men","authors":"Carlo Koos,&nbsp;Richard Traunmüller","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12863","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12863","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A common understanding emphasizes the destructive effects of conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) on social cohesion and community life. Stressing the agency of survivors, we present an alternative argument. Our theory predicts that survivors seek to counteract the stigma attached to CRSV by contributing to the community in the form of civic engagement. Drawing on three original surveys from Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Liberia, and Sri Lanka and relying on list experiments to reduce underreporting bias, we find that survivors of CRSV indeed show increased levels of civic engagement. This civic effect is consistent across the three contexts and very likely causal. We also rule out an alternative mechanism based on posttraumatic growth and dispel concerns that increased civic engagement comes at the expense of decreased intergroup relations. However, looking at sex differences, our results are more sobering. While in line with our prediction, they do not support the optimistic notion that survivors' mobilization results in female empowerment and the closing of existing gender gaps in civic behavior. Our findings have important implications for our understanding of CRSV, the legacy of violent conflict, and the gendered nature of politics.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"763-778"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12863","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143845981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How UN peacekeeping missions enforce peace agreements 联合国维和特派团如何执行和平协定
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12853
Cameron Mailhot
{"title":"How UN peacekeeping missions enforce peace agreements","authors":"Cameron Mailhot","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12853","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12853","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How do UN peacekeeping missions enforce peace agreements, and what effect do higher rates of enforcement have on agreement implementation and conflict termination? Peace agreement enforcement forms a central component of peacekeeping effectiveness, yet missions are often mandated to enforce a minority of agreement provisions, and they vary across both time and space in the ways in which they do so. I identify the three dimensions along which enforcement operates—the proportion and type of provisions that missions are mandated to enforce, alongside their mandated level of involvement in their implementation—and theorize about their positive effects on agreement implementation and conflict termination. Analyzing the Peacekeeping Enforcement Dataset, an original data set of the enforcement patterns of all UN peacekeeping missions (1989–2015), I find that each dimension of enforcement has, at various time points, a distinct impact on agreement implementation and preventing conflict recidivism.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"669-684"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140663802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Prolonged contact does not reshape locals' attitudes toward migrants in wartime settings 长期接触不会改变当地人对战时移民的态度
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12862
Yang-Yang Zhou, Jason Lyall
{"title":"Prolonged contact does not reshape locals' attitudes toward migrants in wartime settings","authors":"Yang-Yang Zhou,&nbsp;Jason Lyall","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12862","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12862","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite record numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs) globally, we know little about the causal effects of intergroup contact between migrants and locals in active conflict settings. We conduct a randomized controlled trial of a vocational skills-training program implemented by Mercy Corps that enrolled 2597 locals and migrants in near equal numbers in Kandahar, Afghanistan, where IDPs face daily prejudice and discrimination. Courses lasting up to 6 months emphasized collaborative learning and soft skills development. We surveyed participants at endline and followed up 8 months later. While the program provided the most sustained duration of intergroup contact (360–720 h) experimentally evaluated to date, we find no evidence of reported behavioral or attitudinal change by locals (<i>N</i> = 1276) toward migrants generally, regardless of classroom demographics or course duration. Our findings suggest that prolonged contact through vocational training programs is insufficient to improve relations in conflict settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 1","pages":"210-222"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12862","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140665451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Grievance shocks and coordination in protest 申诉冲击和抗议协调
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12859
Sofía Correa, Gaétan Nandong, Mehdi Shadmehr
{"title":"Grievance shocks and coordination in protest","authors":"Sofía Correa,&nbsp;Gaétan Nandong,&nbsp;Mehdi Shadmehr","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12859","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12859","url":null,"abstract":"<p>When grievance shocks have heavy tails, large sudden increases in grievances coordinate behavior far more effectively into protests than a sequence of small grievance shocks that generate the same final distribution of grievances in society. That is, society as a whole behaves like the legendary boiling frog, even though each individual does not. An implication is a strong form of path-dependence in collective action. To assess a society's potential for protest, it is not enough to know the current distribution of antiregime sentiments; we also need to know how they came about: suddenly or gradually. The theory also provides a rationale for the classic J-curve theory of revolution. We provide a quantitative analysis of the relationship between grievance shocks and protests in Chile in 2014–2019. Consistent with the theory, results suggest that, even after controlling for grievance levels, large grievance shocks increased the number of protests.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 1","pages":"341-354"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140742456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Political accountability under moral hazard 道德风险下的政治问责
IF 5 1区 社会学
American Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12860
Avidit Acharya, Elliot Lipnowski, João Ramos
{"title":"Political accountability under moral hazard","authors":"Avidit Acharya,&nbsp;Elliot Lipnowski,&nbsp;João Ramos","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12860","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12860","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Viewing the relationship between politicians and voters as a principal–agent interaction afflicted by moral hazard, we examine how political careers are shaped by the incentives that voters provide incumbents to work in the public interest. When moral hazard binds, the optimal way for voters to hold politicians accountable is to provide re-election incentives that evolve dynamically over their careers in office. Under these incentives, first-term politicians are among the most electorally vulnerable and the hardest-working; politician effort rises with electoral vulnerability; electoral security increases following good performance and decreases following bad performance; and both effort and electoral vulnerability tend to decline with tenure. In extensions, we study limited voter commitment, voluntary retirement from politics, and adverse selection.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":"69 2","pages":"641-652"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140747675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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