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New evidence on the efficacy of state-based retirement programs: The case of OregonSaves 关于以州为基础的退休计划有效性的新证据：俄勒冈储蓄的案例
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105379
John Chalmers , Olivia S. Mitchell , Jonathan Reuter , Mingli Zhong
{"title":"New evidence on the efficacy of state-based retirement programs: The case of OregonSaves","authors":"John Chalmers ,&nbsp;Olivia S. Mitchell ,&nbsp;Jonathan Reuter ,&nbsp;Mingli Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105379","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105379","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Seventeen US states have mandated employers to facilitate auto-enrollment retirement saving for workers lacking access to employer-sponsored plans, and proposed federal legislation seeks to extend these plans to the national level. This paper examines the experience with OregonSaves, the country’s longest-running plan, documenting that the program did prompt some participant savings. Median account balances were about $600 by mid-2023, but opt-out rates were above 50%, especially for the low-paid. Repeated exposure to the plan slightly reduced opt-outs, though withdrawals remained common. While modest savings accrued for many, it remains unclear whether these accounts will grow large enough to significantly increase retirement consumption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"246 ","pages":"Article 105379"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143898490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regulating the direction of innovation 规范创新方向
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105375
Joshua S. Gans
{"title":"Regulating the direction of innovation","authors":"Joshua S. Gans","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105375","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105375","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the regulation of technological innovation direction under uncertainty about potential harms. We develop a model with two competing technological paths and analyse various regulatory interventions. The optimal regulatory approach depends critically on the magnitude of potential harm relative to technological benefits. Our analysis reveals a motive to double down on harmful technologies in resource allocation across research paths, challenging common intuitions about diversification. We demonstrate that ex post regulatory instruments, particularly liability regimes, outperform ex ante restrictions in many scenarios. These insights have important implications for regulating emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, suggesting the need for informationally-responsive regulatory frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"246 ","pages":"Article 105375"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143887093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The structure of online social networks and social movements: Evidence from the Black Lives Matter protests 在线社交网络和社会运动的结构：来自“黑人的命也是命”抗议活动的证据
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105373
Matthias Flückiger , Markus Ludwig
{"title":"The structure of online social networks and social movements: Evidence from the Black Lives Matter protests","authors":"Matthias Flückiger ,&nbsp;Markus Ludwig","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105373","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105373","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper documents that online social networks – Facebook in particular – can facilitate the spread of social movements across space and time. Focusing on the largest protest movement in recent history, the wave of Black Lives Matter protests sparked by the killing of George Floyd on 25 May 2020, we show that protests are more likely to spill over between US counties when they are more closely connected within the Facebook network. To identify causal effects, we develop an instrumental variable approach that exploits local Facebook outages as a source of exogenous variation in the structure of the online network.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"246 ","pages":"Article 105373"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143882248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Two decades of top income shares in Honduras 洪都拉斯二十年的高收入份额
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105362
Giselle Del Carmen , Santiago Garriga , Wilman Ponce , Thiago Scot
{"title":"Two decades of top income shares in Honduras","authors":"Giselle Del Carmen ,&nbsp;Santiago Garriga ,&nbsp;Wilman Ponce ,&nbsp;Thiago Scot","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105362","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105362","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study constructs distributional national accounts for Honduras from 2003 to 2019, integrating household surveys, administrative tax records, and national account aggregates. It assembles comprehensive data on formal income for high-income individuals, including information on corporate shareholders, which allows corporate profits to be assigned to their owners. Findings reveal a high and persistent inequality: the top 1 percent highest earners received approximately 30 percent of total pre-tax income, placing Honduras among the most unequal countries in the world. Capital income, mostly undistributed corporate profits, represent close to half of income for the top 0.1% of earners, highlighting its role in driving top income dynamics. Finally, using a panel of tax records, we also document that not only inequality is mostly unchanged over two decades, but the identity of top earners is also persistent — over half of those observed in the top 0.1% will stay there in a three year horizon.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"246 ","pages":"Article 105362"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143882247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Avoidance Responses to the Wealth Tax 避税对财富税的回应
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105351
Mariona Mas-Montserrat , José María Durán-Cabré , Alejandro Esteller-Moré
{"title":"Avoidance Responses to the Wealth Tax","authors":"Mariona Mas-Montserrat ,&nbsp;José María Durán-Cabré ,&nbsp;Alejandro Esteller-Moré","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105351","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105351","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a consequence of the Great Recession, the Spanish government reintroduced the Wealth Tax in 2011. We exploit the variation in wealth tax exposure to analyse taxpayers’ responses to this reintroduction. While facing higher wealth taxes did not discourage savings, results indicate that a 0.1 percentage point increase in the average tax rate leads to a reduction in taxable wealth of 3.21% over 4 years. In particular, the reduction in taxable wealth comes from taking advantage of exemptions, mostly business-related. Thus, the reintroduction induced avoidance. Taxpayers also take advantage of the limit on tax liability through a change in their asset and income composition. By far, this latter source of avoidance accounts for the greatest impact on tax revenues (92.6%). The impact of these avoidance strategies on revenue collected was far from negligible, since according to our estimates they represent a 2012-2015 revenue loss of 2.75 times the 2011 estimated wealth tax revenues. These findings should be useful to policymakers and administrations considering the implementation of a wealth tax, as they illustrate the pitfalls to be circumvented.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"246 ","pages":"Article 105351"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The employment effects of a pandemic wage subsidy 大流行工资补贴对就业的影响
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105358
Michael Smart , Matthew Kronberg , Josip Lesica , Huju Liu
{"title":"The employment effects of a pandemic wage subsidy","authors":"Michael Smart ,&nbsp;Matthew Kronberg ,&nbsp;Josip Lesica ,&nbsp;Huju Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105358","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105358","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate causal effects of a pandemic-era wage subsidy in Canada on job losses and business closures. Our estimates use administrative microdata and a regression discontinuity strategy to estimate the effects of marginal changes in the wage subsidy rate. The estimated net wage elasticity of employment was 0.05 to 0.22, implying a small employment effect of the program and an estimated fiscal cost per job saved of more than $185,000 per year. Subsidy payments caused a small but persistent reduction in business closure rates during subsequent waves of the pandemic, and increased earnings of existing employees. In all, our results suggest the subsidies did little to preserve job matches, but played a greater role in the overall social insurance response to the pandemic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"246 ","pages":"Article 105358"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143848290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unemployment and tax design 失业和税收设计
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105359
Albert Jan Hummel
{"title":"Unemployment and tax design","authors":"Albert Jan Hummel","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105359","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105359","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies optimal income taxation in an environment where matching frictions generate a trade-off for workers between high wages and low unemployment risk. A higher marginal tax rate shifts the trade-off in favor of low unemployment risk, whereas a higher tax burden or unemployment benefit has the opposite effect. Changes in unemployment generate fiscal externalities, which modify optimal tax formulas. A calibration exercise to the US economy suggests that optimal marginal tax rates and employment taxes are hardly affected if unemployment responses to taxation are taken into account.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"246 ","pages":"Article 105359"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cleaner water and higher housing prices: Evidence from China☆ 更清洁的水和更高的房价：来自中国的证据
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105374
Run Ge , Jialin Huang , Xinzheng Shi
{"title":"Cleaner water and higher housing prices: Evidence from China☆","authors":"Run Ge ,&nbsp;Jialin Huang ,&nbsp;Xinzheng Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105374","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105374","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Combining water monitoring station-level administrative data and transaction-level housing price data from Shanghai, China, we investigate the impact of China’s 2015 water pollution reduction policy on water pollution and housing prices. We first find that the policy significantly improved the water quality of the treated monitoring stations by 0.352 standard deviations. Furthermore, we find that the policy led to a 5.4% increase in the housing prices of apartments located within a 500-meter distance to the nearest treated river, but the effect disappeared for apartments located more than 500 m away. A heterogeneity analysis shows that the effects on housing prices are stronger in areas with higher total housing value, larger apartment sizes, greater nighttime light intensity, higher density of nearby amenities, and closer proximity to the city center.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 105374"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143833393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Crowding in or crowding out? Evidence from discontinuity in the assignment of business R&D subsidies 挤进去还是挤出去？企业研发补贴分配不连续性的证据
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105357
Matěj Bajgar , Martin Srholec
{"title":"Crowding in or crowding out? Evidence from discontinuity in the assignment of business R&D subsidies","authors":"Matěj Bajgar ,&nbsp;Martin Srholec","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105357","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105357","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We employ a regression discontinuity design to study the effects of a flagship business R&amp;D subsidy programme in the Czech Republic on R&amp;D investment, patenting and economic performance of the supported firms. The R&amp;D subsidies stimulated R&amp;D expenditure in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) but not in large firms. In SMEs, public funding succeeded in crowding in private R&amp;D investment, and 1 unit of public subsidy was associated with about 2.3 units of additional R&amp;D expenditure. The positive effects on R&amp;D expenditure of SMEs were sustained after the original projects ended, possibly thanks to subsequent subsidies from the same funding provider. Supported SMEs also saw their sales increase in the short term, but we do not observe any positive effects of the support on patenting, employment or longer-term sales and productivity. We find evidence that the subsidies crowded out private R&amp;D expenditure in large firms and financing constraints played an important role in explaining the effect heterogeneity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 105357"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143821253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can changes in disability insurance work incentives influence beneficiary employment? Evidence from the promoting opportunity demonstration 残疾保险工作激励机制的变化会影响受益人就业吗？来自促进机会示范的证据
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105370
Michael Levere , David Wittenburg , John T. Jones
{"title":"Can changes in disability insurance work incentives influence beneficiary employment? Evidence from the promoting opportunity demonstration","authors":"Michael Levere ,&nbsp;David Wittenburg ,&nbsp;John T. Jones","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105370","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105370","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how disability beneficiary work behavior responds to a rule change that replaces a cash cliff—a threshold above which benefits reduce to zero—with a benefit offset ramp—where benefits are gradually phased out. Using a randomized controlled trial with over 10,000 Social Security Disability Insurance beneficiaries who voluntarily enrolled in the demonstration, we find precisely estimated null effects on earnings, income, and benefit amounts. An analysis of mechanisms indicates that administrative burden, the limited size of the incentive, and individual and systemic barriers to employment for people with disabilities likely contributed to the limited impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 105370"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143808639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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