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The nonlinear effects of fiscal policy 财政政策的非线性效应
IF 3.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105517
Pedro Brinca , Miguel Faria-e-Castro , Miguel H. Ferreira , Hans A. Holter , Valter Nóbrega
{"title":"The nonlinear effects of fiscal policy","authors":"Pedro Brinca ,&nbsp;Miguel Faria-e-Castro ,&nbsp;Miguel H. Ferreira ,&nbsp;Hans A. Holter ,&nbsp;Valter Nóbrega","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105517","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105517","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We argue that the fiscal multiplier of government purchases increases with the size of the spending shock: more expansionary government spending shocks generate larger multipliers and more contractionary shocks generate smaller multipliers. We empirically document this pattern across time, countries, and modes of financing. We propose a neoclassical mechanism that hinges on the relationship between fiscal shocks, their form of financing, and the response of labor supply across the wealth distribution. An incomplete markets model predicts that the aggregate labor supply elasticity increases with the spending shock, and this holds regardless of whether shocks are deficit- or balanced-budget financed. We show that this mechanism survives the introduction of nominal price rigidities and find evidence for it using micro-data for the US.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 105517"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145468936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Pass-through of subsidies to prices under limited competition: Evidence from Canada’s Nutrition North program”. [J. Publ. Econ. 225 (2023)] “有限竞争下价格补贴的传递：来自加拿大北方营养计划的证据”的勘误表。[J。出版。经济学。225 (2023)]
IF 3.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105542
Tracey Galloway , Nicholas Li
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Pass-through of subsidies to prices under limited competition: Evidence from Canada’s Nutrition North program”. [J. Publ. Econ. 225 (2023)]","authors":"Tracey Galloway ,&nbsp;Nicholas Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105542","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105542","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 105542"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Climate and migration in the United States”. [249 (2025) 105446] “美国的气候和移民”的勘误表。[249 (2025) 105446]
IF 3.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105514
Patrick Baylis , Prashant Bharadwaj , Jamie T. Mullins , Nick Obradovich
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Climate and migration in the United States”. [249 (2025) 105446]","authors":"Patrick Baylis ,&nbsp;Prashant Bharadwaj ,&nbsp;Jamie T. Mullins ,&nbsp;Nick Obradovich","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105514","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105514","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 105514"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “The influence of inheritances on wealth inequality in rich countries”. [J. Public Econ. 247 (2025) 105398] 《遗产对富裕国家财富不平等的影响》的勘误。[J。公共经济。247 (2025)105398]
IF 3.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105511
Salvatore Morelli , Brian Nolan , Juan C. Palomino , Philippe Van Kerm
{"title":"Corrigendum to “The influence of inheritances on wealth inequality in rich countries”. [J. Public Econ. 247 (2025) 105398]","authors":"Salvatore Morelli ,&nbsp;Brian Nolan ,&nbsp;Juan C. Palomino ,&nbsp;Philippe Van Kerm","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105511","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105511","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 105511"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How substitutable are the classical and radical right? 古典右派和激进右派的可替代性如何？
IF 3.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105521
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde , Carlos Sanz
{"title":"How substitutable are the classical and radical right?","authors":"Jesús Fernández-Villaverde ,&nbsp;Carlos Sanz","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105521","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105521","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the last two decades, a new generation of right-wing parties and leaders has emerged worldwide. A central question is how substitutable voters perceive these parties to be relative to the classical right. We address this question using a quasi-natural experiment from Spain’s 2023 general election. Due to a last-minute candidate withdrawal, the radical right (Vox) could not run in one constituency. This unexpected event, unrelated to economic or ideological fundamentals, allows us to estimate the effects of radical right parties on electoral outcomes. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we find that the classical right captured 82.9 % of the radical right vote. The radical right’s absence also slightly increased the vote share for left-wing parties and nearly doubled protest voting. These effects are stronger in high-unemployment areas, suggesting that the classical and radical right are less likely to be viewed as substitutes there. Additional analyses using survey data corroborate our findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 105521"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145569666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal regulation and investment incentives in financial networks 金融网络中的最优监管与投资激励
IF 3.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105516
Matthew O. Jackson , Agathe Pernoud
{"title":"Optimal regulation and investment incentives in financial networks","authors":"Matthew O. Jackson ,&nbsp;Agathe Pernoud","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105516","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105516","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the optimal regulation of financial networks with debt interdependencies between financial firms. We first show that firms often have incentives to choose excessively risky portfolios and to overly correlate their portfolios with those of their counterparties. We then characterize how optimal regulation depends on a firm’s financial centrality and its available investment opportunities. In standard core–periphery networks, optimal regulation depends non-monotonically on the correlation of banks’ investments, with maximal restrictions at intermediate levels of correlation. Moreover, it can be uniquely optimal to treat banks asymmetrically—restricting the investments of one core bank while allowing an otherwise identical core bank (identical in all aspects, including network centrality) to invest freely.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 105516"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145520904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
School equalization in the shadow of Jim Crow: Causes and consequences of resource disparity in Mississippi circa 1940 吉姆·克劳阴影下的学校平等：1940年左右密西西比州资源差距的原因和后果
IF 3.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105497
David Card , Leah Clark , Ciprian Domnisoru , Lowell Taylor
{"title":"School equalization in the shadow of Jim Crow: Causes and consequences of resource disparity in Mississippi circa 1940","authors":"David Card ,&nbsp;Leah Clark ,&nbsp;Ciprian Domnisoru ,&nbsp;Lowell Taylor","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105497","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105497","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mississippi’s 1920 school finance equalization program failed to benefit many of the state’s Black students—an outcome emblematic of broader patterns in the segregated U.S. South <span><span>Bond (1934)</span></span>. In majority-Black districts, local officials disproportionately allocated funds from the state’s existing per capita fund to white schools. These elevated expenditures on white students rendered such districts ineligible for equalization aid, excluding Black students from its intended benefits. While Black students in majority-white districts experienced improvements in school spending and standards, those in majority-Black districts continued to endure extremely low—in some cases declining—levels of school funding. Exploiting variation in school spending induced by this so-called equalization policy, we document a tragedy in racist public policy. We estimate large positive marginal effects of local educational spending on Black students’ enrollment rates, educational attainment, and lifetime earnings. In contrast, estimated impacts of marginal spending on white students are minimal. A reallocation of funding toward Black students might have substantially improved their well-being at little cost to white students.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 105497"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145615156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Laptops in the long run: Evidence from the one laptop per child program in rural Peru 笔记本电脑的长远发展：来自秘鲁农村每个孩子一台笔记本电脑项目的证据
IF 3.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105538
Santiago Cueto , Diether W. Beuermann , Julian Cristia , Ofer Malamud , Francisco Pardo
{"title":"Laptops in the long run: Evidence from the one laptop per child program in rural Peru","authors":"Santiago Cueto ,&nbsp;Diether W. Beuermann ,&nbsp;Julian Cristia ,&nbsp;Ofer Malamud ,&nbsp;Francisco Pardo","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105538","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines a large-scale randomized evaluation of the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) program in 531 Peruvian rural primary schools. We use administrative data on academic performance and grade progression over 10 years to estimate the long-run effects of increased computer access on (i) school performance over time and (ii) students’ educational trajectories. Following schools over time, we find no significant effects on academic performance but some evidence of negative effects on grade progression. Following students over time, we find no significant effects on primary and secondary completion, academic performance in secondary school, or university enrollment. Survey data indicate that computer access significantly improved students’ computer skills but not their cognitive skills; treated teachers received some training but did not improve their digital skills and showed limited use of technology in classrooms, suggesting the need for additional pedagogical support.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 105538"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145615258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Distributionally sensitive cost-benefit analysis 分配敏感的成本效益分析
IF 3.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105536
Robin Boadway , Michael Smart
{"title":"Distributionally sensitive cost-benefit analysis","authors":"Robin Boadway ,&nbsp;Michael Smart","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105536","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105536","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a method for cost-benefit analysis of public policies that identifies potential Pareto improvements when losers from a reform are compensated through income tax changes. Reforms are desirable when they reduce aggregate excess burden in commodity and labor markets. This condition is equivalent to a weighted sum of individual compensating variations, where weights reflect the impacts of the policy reform on individuals’ labor incomes, rather than marginal social valuations of transfers to them. We identify cases in which distributional weights are increasing in individual incomes, despite inequality concerns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 105536"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regulating quasi-legal markets: Evidence from pain management clinic laws 规范准合法市场：来自疼痛管理诊所法律的证据
IF 3.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105515
Yuji Mizushima , David Powell , Rahi Abouk , Cheryl Damberg
{"title":"Regulating quasi-legal markets: Evidence from pain management clinic laws","authors":"Yuji Mizushima ,&nbsp;David Powell ,&nbsp;Rahi Abouk ,&nbsp;Cheryl Damberg","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105515","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105515","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The opioid crisis has often been fueled by its simultaneous interaction with both medical and illicit markets, including “pill mills” that distribute legal substances in inappropriate and quasi-legal ways. Pain management clinic laws (PMCLs) aim to address this property by enforcing stricter regulatory licensing requirements and regulatory oversight on opioid prescribing establishments. Using a difference-in-differences framework and Medicare claims data, we find that PMCLs reduce problematic opioid prescribing and doctor shopping. Drawing on transaction-level information on opioid shipments, we estimate that PMCLs lead to strikingly large reductions in the volume of opioids dispensed directly by practitioners to patients. Studying mortality data, we estimate reductions in overdose death rates involving prescription opioids, with little evidence of substitution to illicit opioid markets. As PMCLs have not been adopted in most states, our results suggest they warrant greater attention from policymakers, even amid the declining role of prescription opioids in the annual death toll of the opioid crisis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 105515"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145569599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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