{"title":"How in-person conversations shape political polarization: Quasi-experimental evidence from a nationwide initiative","authors":"Ximeng Fang , Sven Heuser , Lasse S. Stötzer","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105309","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105309","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Growing political polarization is often attributed to “echo chambers” among like-minded individuals and a lack of social interactions among contrary-minded individuals. We provide quasi-experimental evidence on the effects of in-person conversations on individual-level polarization outcomes, studying a large-scale intervention in Germany that matched pairs of strangers for private face-to-face meetings to discuss divisive political issues. We find asymmetric effects: conversations with like-minded individuals caused political views to become more extreme (ideological polarization); by contrast, conversations with contrary-minded individuals did not lead to a convergence of political views, but significantly reduced negative beliefs and attitudes toward ideological out-group members (affective polarization), while also improving perceived social cohesion more generally. These effects of contrary-minded conversations seem to be driven mostly by positive experiences of interpersonal contact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 105309"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The decline of manufacturing employment and the rise of the far-right in Austria","authors":"Karim Bekhtiar","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105315","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105315","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent decades, right-wing populist parties have experienced increased electoral success in many Western democracies. This rise of the far-right, which is strongly built on the support of the working class, coincides with a sharp decline of the manufacturing sector. This paper analyzes the contribution of this manufacturing decline to the rise of the Austrian far-right. Overall, the decline in manufacturing employment has strongly contributed to this rightward shift in the political landscape, with the manufacturing decline explaining around one-third of the observed increase in far-right vote-shares between 1995 and 2019. Regarding the influences of the forces underlying the manufacturing decline, namely international trade and automation technologies, suggests that both forces contributed in roughly equal parts to this development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 105315"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143388268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The big sell: Privatizing East Germany’s economy","authors":"Lukas Mergele , Moritz Hennicke , Moritz Lubczyk","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105291","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105291","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Departing from communism, East Germany witnessed history’s most extensive privatization program. While the program sparked global interest as a blueprint for economic transformation, its effectiveness remains disputed. Using unique firm-level data, we examine the program’s objective to privatize the most competitive firms. We document that firms with higher baseline productivity are more likely to be privatized, yield higher prices, are more often acquired by West Germans, and are more likely to survive 20 years later. Inspecting the inner workings of the privatization agency, we illustrate challenges and lessons for how governments can design and implement industrial policy goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 105291"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of standardized disease-specific healthcare coverage","authors":"Felipe Menares , Pablo Muñoz","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105312","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105312","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of a healthcare reform that standardized procedures and timely coverage of a set of diseases. Using Chile’s universe of death records and a difference-in-differences research design, we show that mortality from the diseases covered by this reform decreased by 4.4% on average. Disease-specific shocks or a resource shift from non-covered to covered diseases do not explain this effect. Evidence from polytraumatized inpatients suggests that the reform equalized utilization rates as it reduced the dispersion of risk-adjusted surgery rates and spending across hospitals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 105312"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143388267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The psychological gains from COVID-19 vaccination","authors":"Manuel Bagues , Velichka Dimitrova","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105304","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105304","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on psychological well-being using information from a large-scale panel survey representative of the UK population. Exploiting exogenous variation in the timing of vaccinations, we find that vaccination increases psychological well-being (GHQ-12) by 0.12 standard deviations, compensating for one-half of the deterioration in mental health caused by the pandemic. This improvement persists for at least two months, and is linked to higher engagement in social activities and a decrease in the self-reported likelihood of contracting COVID-19. The main beneficiaries are individuals who became mentally distressed during the pandemic, supporting their prioritization in vaccination roll-outs. Conversely, individuals who harbored concerns about potential vaccine side effects show no improvement in psychological well-being upon vaccination, underscoring the importance of public confidence in vaccine safety and efficacy. Accounting for the improvement in psychological well-being increases the benefits of vaccination by around 50%.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 105304"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jennifer Buurma-Olsen , Hans R.A. Kost , Jos van Ommeren , Jort Sinninghe Damsté
{"title":"Quantifying misallocation of public housing","authors":"Jennifer Buurma-Olsen , Hans R.A. Kost , Jos van Ommeren , Jort Sinninghe Damsté","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105272","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105272","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We empirically investigate how rent control combined with the use of a non-market allocation mechanism – centralised waiting lists – affects the efficiency of housing allocation among public-housing tenants. We show that, on average, Dutch public-housing tenants consume a house whose value differs by 7.5% from what they would consume under an efficient allocation. This entails particularly large transfers in housing consumption from younger households to older households. The annual welfare loss arising from misallocation within the public-housing sector is modest, estimated at around €65 per tenant.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 105272"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Correlation in state and local tax changes","authors":"Scott R. Baker , Pawel Janas , Lorenz Kueng","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105275","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105275","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Empirical research in public economics, including our own, often uses variation in state and local taxes as an empirical laboratory to estimate causal relationships. A key concern is that other taxes might change at the same time. To assess this concern, we develop a dataset of state (1977–2022) and local (2000–2022) tax rates and revenue from personal income, corporate income, property, sales, and excise taxes. This new dataset generates two key results. First, we find that taxes of different types tend to co-move within a jurisdiction: a tax change of one type can more than double the likelihood of a second tax type changing in the same year. Local tax changes also co-move with tax changes enacted by the state they are located in. This positive correlation can upwardly bias elasticity estimates, but only moderately. For example, regressing state economic outcomes on the full set of state tax changes yields elasticities that are about 10%–30% smaller than those obtained from using a single tax type in isolation. Second, we document that the mix of taxes across state and local jurisdictions is very different, and that these differences have become more pronounced over time as jurisdictions have increasingly become reliant on the single tax type — sales, personal or corporate income tax — that was most prominent for them in the earliest part of our sample.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 105275"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143140366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Between a rock and a hard place: The costs and benefits of expanded unemployment insurance benefits","authors":"Naser Hamdi , Ankit Kalda , David Sovich","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105295","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105295","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine how the withdrawal of the largest expansion of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits in United States history affected job-finding, demand for other government assistance, and credit defaults. Using administrative UI data merged with credit records and applications for Medicaid and SNAP, we show that UI withdrawal led to an increase in job-finding that was most pronounced among financially constrained individuals with limited available credit. The cost savings from higher job-finding came at the expense of increased demand for other government services and higher defaults. Our results highlight an important interaction between UI, household finances, and other social insurance programs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 105295"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143140368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Financial market exposure increases generalized trust","authors":"Saumitra Jha , Moses Shayo , Chagai M. Weiss","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105303","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105303","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How can we build trust, especially in polarized societies? We propose that exposure to broad financial markets—where individuals place their assets in the hands of large groups of unfamiliar agents who nonetheless have the incentive and ability to promote their interests—can contribute to generalized trust. In a randomized controlled trial, we encourage Israelis to hold or trade stocks for up to seven weeks. We find that participation in financial markets increases the probability of expressing generalized trust by about 6 percentage points, equivalent to a quarter of the control group mean. The effects seem to be driven by political partisans along the left–right spectrum in Israel, and are robust to negative price changes. Thus, trust is not only a cause but can also be an effect of participation in financial markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 105303"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Housing Improvement and Crime","authors":"Umair Khalil , Viviane Sanfelice","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We evaluate a policy implemented in Chicago geared towards improving the private housing stock in distressed neighborhoods. First, the program successfully increased housing renovations and reduced foreclosures, demonstrating tangible housing improvements. Next, treated areas experienced significant reductions in burglaries and robberies, with adjacent neighborhoods also documenting similar decreases in crime. We do not find evidence that gentrification with displacement of incumbent residents is responsible for the positive impacts of the program. Our findings provide evidence of substantial neighborhood gains from low-cost, place-based housing interventions that prioritize the preservation of existing housing stock.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 105316"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}