Demography最新文献_第7页

Cohorts' Working Life Expectancies and Working Years Lost in 21 European Countries. 21个欧洲国家人群的工作预期寿命和工作年数损失。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12472371

Jan Einhoff

引用次数: 0

Beyond Lifelong Marriage and Spousal Coresidence: A Research Note on Racial and Ethnic Differences in Late-Life Family and Living Arrangements. 超越终身婚姻和配偶共同居住：关于晚年家庭和生活安排的种族和民族差异的研究笔记。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12458349

Xueqing Wang, Xuezhixing Zhang, Emma Zang

{"title":"Beyond Lifelong Marriage and Spousal Coresidence: A Research Note on Racial and Ethnic Differences in Late-Life Family and Living Arrangements.","authors":"Xueqing Wang, Xuezhixing Zhang, Emma Zang","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12458349","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12458349","url":null,"abstract":"We employ an innovative Bayesian multistate life table approach to examine how race, ethnicity, and sex shape marital status and living arrangements in later life. Using the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2018), we estimate expected years spent in various marital and living arrangements after age 50. Our findings reveal stark disparities: White adults largely follow traditional patterns, spending most of their later years married and living with a spouse. In contrast, Black adults experience the shortest durations of marriage and spousal coresidence, spending much of later life alone or with nonspouse family members. Hispanic adults occupy an intermediate position, maintaining substantial years in marriage while also spending extended time in multigenerational households. These patterns are further stratified by sex, with minority females experiencing significantly fewer years married and living with a spouse than males, amplifying their reliance on alternative family support structures. These findings highlight how the intersection of race, ethnicity, and sex shapes later life social and economic security, emphasizing the need for policies that account for diverse family structures in aging populations.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"29-43"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146150975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Limits of Predicting Individual-Level Longevity: Insights From the U.S. Health and Retirement Study. 预测个人寿命的极限：来自美国健康和退休研究的见解。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12464628

Luca Badolato, Ari Decter-Frain, Nicholas J Irons, Maria L Miranda, Erin Walk, Elnura Zhalieva, Monica Alexander, Ugofilippo Basellini, Emilio Zagheni

{"title":"The Limits of Predicting Individual-Level Longevity: Insights From the U.S. Health and Retirement Study.","authors":"Luca Badolato, Ari Decter-Frain, Nicholas J Irons, Maria L Miranda, Erin Walk, Elnura Zhalieva, Monica Alexander, Ugofilippo Basellini, Emilio Zagheni","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12464628","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12464628","url":null,"abstract":"Individual-level mortality prediction is a fundamental challenge with implications for life planning, health care, social policies, and public spending. Drawing from the growing body of research on the predictability of life course events, we model and predict individual-level lifespan using 12 statistical and machine learning models and more than 150 predictors derived from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study longitudinal data. Statistical and machine learning models report comparable accuracy and relatively high discriminative performance, but they fail to account for most lifespan heterogeneity at the individual level. We observe consistent inequalities in mortality predictability and risk discrimination, with lower accuracy for men, non-Hispanic Blacks, and low-educated individuals. Additionally, people in these groups show lower accuracy in their subjective predictions of their own lifespan. Finally, top features across groups are similar, with variables related to habits, health history, and finances being relevant predictors. We conclude by highlighting the limits of predicting mortality from one of the richest longitudinal representative surveys in the United States, as well as the context-dependent inequalities across sociodemographic groups, and providing baselines and guidance for future research and public policies.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"351-374"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146158670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fertility Outcomes of Adult Children With Divorced Parents: Evidence From Population Data. 离异成年子女的生育结果：来自人口数据的证据。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12487209

Silvia Palmaccio, Deni Mazrekaj, Kristof De Witte

引用次数: 0

Cohort Prevalence Estimates Are Sensitive to Prebaseline Mortality: A Research Note Using Cognitive Impairment Data From the HAALSI Cohort in Rural South Africa. 队列患病率估计对基线前死亡率敏感：使用来自南非农村HAALSI队列的认知损伤数据的研究笔记。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12479730

Molly Rosenberg, Erika Beidelman, Xiwei Chen, Kathleen Kahn, Chodziwadziwa W Kabudula, Lindsay C Kobayashi

{"title":"Cohort Prevalence Estimates Are Sensitive to Prebaseline Mortality: A Research Note Using Cognitive Impairment Data From the HAALSI Cohort in Rural South Africa.","authors":"Molly Rosenberg, Erika Beidelman, Xiwei Chen, Kathleen Kahn, Chodziwadziwa W Kabudula, Lindsay C Kobayashi","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12479730","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12479730","url":null,"abstract":"All cohorts are conditioned on survival to a study's baseline. The validity of estimates drawn from these cohorts of survivors may be compromised if those who die prior to enrollment have different covariate structures than survivors. In this research note, we used data from the \"HAALSI Cohort\" (Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa) of older adults in rural South Africa and a \"Mortality Cohort\" of individuals who would have been eligible for HAALSI but died before they had the opportunity to enroll, drawing on complete population mortality data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System. We simulated the prevalence of cognitive impairment under different assumptions about the prevalence of such impairment in the Mortality Cohort. We constructed a random forest classification model to predict cognitive impairment in the Mortality Cohort and compared it with observed estimates in the HAALSI Cohort. The prevalence of cognitive impairment was sensitive to assumptions about the prevalence in the Mortality Cohort. The predictive model revealed meaningfully higher predicted probability of cognitive impairment in a counterfactual scenario with no prebaseline deaths. Researchers should consider prebaseline mortality in the interpretation of prevalence estimates, especially when the magnitude of prebaseline deaths is likely large.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"79-95"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13332683/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146221977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Response to "A Commentary on 'Gender Bias in Parental Attitude: An Experimental Approach' by Begum, Grossman, and Islam (2018)". 对Begum、Grossman和Islam对“父母态度中的性别偏见：一种实验方法”的评论（2018）的回应。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12344725

Lutfunnahar Begum, Philip J Grossman, Asad Islam

引用次数: 0

Kin Propinquity, Residential Mobility, and the Persistence of Segregation. 亲缘关系、居住流动性与隔离的持续存在。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12347377

Benjamin F Jarvis, Guilherme Kenji Chihaya, Eduardo Tapia

{"title":"Kin Propinquity, Residential Mobility, and the Persistence of Segregation.","authors":"Benjamin F Jarvis, Guilherme Kenji Chihaya, Eduardo Tapia","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12347377","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12347377","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents an analysis of the relationship between kin propinquity, residential mobility, and the persistence of segregation among ancestry groups living in Stockholm, Sweden. Residential segregation between Swedish and non-Swedish ancestry groups is established when immigrants first settle in Stockholm, which creates disparities in the spatial distribution of kin for the children of immigrants compared with their Swedish counterparts. Using agent-based models, we show how preferences to live near kin are sufficient to maintain existing segregation but are not sufficient to generate it. We then apply discrete choice models of residential mobility to longitudinal residential history data from Swedish population registers to estimate the effects of kin on the neighborhood choices of movers, ages 18‒30, during the 1998‒2017 period. We find that people are more likely to move to neighborhoods that are near to kin, net of controls for sorting by ancestry, socioeconomic status, and life course characteristics. Counterfactual simulations of residential mobility show that kin propinquity contributes to higher levels of segregation between Swedish and non-Swedish ancestry groups. These effects are larger for groups already experiencing high levels of segregation from the Swedish majority. We situate these findings in the emerging literature on social structural sorting.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1873-1898"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145764162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Severe Tornadoes and Infant Birth Weight in the United States. 美国的强龙卷风和婴儿出生体重。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12354082

Nicholas Mark, Ethan J Raker, Gerard Torrats-Espinosa

{"title":"Severe Tornadoes and Infant Birth Weight in the United States.","authors":"Nicholas Mark, Ethan J Raker, Gerard Torrats-Espinosa","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12354082","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12354082","url":null,"abstract":"Increasing evidence links exposure to extreme weather events in utero with adverse health outcomes at birth, including lower birth weight. This research, however, often faces data limitations because natural disasters may be localized, often affecting some neighborhoods but not others, whereas outcome data are often available only at higher geographic levels, such as counties. In this article, we introduce a novel strategy for estimating the effects of geographically bounded disasters when localized outcome data are unavailable. We employ this strategy to estimate the effect of exposure to severe tornadoes on infant birth weight in the United States from 1991 to 2017. We merge county-month data on singleton births with block-group-level monthly data on the paths of severe tornadoes and block-group data on the distribution of the population at risk of a birth. We then estimate difference-in-differences models in which the treatment variable is equal to the percentage of the population at risk of a birth affected by the tornado. This strategy results in an estimand that is both more interpretable and more policy-relevant than estimands from traditional models. Our findings demonstrate that exposure to a tornado during pregnancy reduced birth weight for Black mothers.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"2047-2073"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145775799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Divorce Effects on Teenagers' Higher Education: Evidence From One Million Siblings in Taiwan. 离婚对青少年高等教育的影响：来自台湾百万兄弟姐妹的证据。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12359281

Yen-Chien Chen, Elliott Fan, Jin-Tan Liu

引用次数: 0

Six Decades of Educational Assortative Mating in South Korea: A Research Note. 韩国六十年的教育选型婚姻：一份研究报告。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12321371

Hyunjoon Park, Andrew Taeho Kim

{"title":"Six Decades of Educational Assortative Mating in South Korea: A Research Note.","authors":"Hyunjoon Park, Andrew Taeho Kim","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12321371","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12321371","url":null,"abstract":"This research note focuses on accurately documenting the trends in educational resemblance between husbands and wives in South Korea over six decades, from 1960 to 2020. Having undergone rapid social changes in recent history, including industrialization, economic development, and educational expansion, Korea offers a compelling context for studying long-term changes in educational assortative mating across different stages of development. Using 2% microsamples from 13 census datasets collected between 1960 and 2020, we construct marriage tables cross-classifying six educational levels of husbands and wives, both aged 25 to 45. Log-multiplicative layer effect models are applied to assess the husband‒wife association, controlling for changing marginal distributions of both spouses' educational levels. Our analysis of 843,527 married couples shows that the association between husbands' and wives' education increases to a peak around 1995, after which it continuously declines. The inverted U-shape trend remains robust whether analyzing current or first marriages of varying duration and across different types of log-linear models. We provide theoretical and empirical discussions of major macro-level trends, especially the timing and gendered patterns of educational expansion, in Korea to contextualize the observed patterns of educational assortative mating.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1809-1820"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12884698/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145558285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0