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Energy price shocks, monetary policy and inequality 能源价格冲击、货币政策和不平等
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104986
Alina Bobasu , Michael Dobrew , Amalia Repele
{"title":"Energy price shocks, monetary policy and inequality","authors":"Alina Bobasu ,&nbsp;Michael Dobrew ,&nbsp;Amalia Repele","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104986","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104986","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how monetary policy shapes the aggregate and distributional effects of an energy price shock. Based on the observed heterogeneity in consumption exposures to energy and household wealth, we build a quantitative small open-economy HANK model that matches salient features of the Euro Area data. Our model incorporates energy as both a consumption good for households with non-homothetic preferences as well as a factor input into production with input complementarities. Independently of policy energy price shocks always reduce aggregate consumption. Households with little wealth are more adversely affected through both a decline in labor income as well as negative direct price effects. Active policy responses raising rates in response to inflation amplifies aggregate outcomes through a reduction in aggregate demand, but speeds up the recovery by enabling households to rebuild wealth through higher returns on savings. However, low-wealth households are further adversely affected as they have little savings to rebuild wealth from and instead loose due to further declining labor income.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 104986"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal tightening and skills mismatch 财政紧缩和技能不匹配
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104984
Konstantinos Mavrigiannakis , Andreas Vasilatos , Eugenia Vella
{"title":"Fiscal tightening and skills mismatch","authors":"Konstantinos Mavrigiannakis ,&nbsp;Andreas Vasilatos ,&nbsp;Eugenia Vella","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104984","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104984","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper establishes a new link between fiscal tightening and the vertical skills mismatch rate, defined as the share of over-qualified workers. Using cross-country evidence for Europe, we show that fiscal tightening can increase skills mismatch. We then introduce the latter in a DSGE model with heterogeneous households, capital-skill complementarity (CSC) and labor frictions. We calibrate the model for Greece, where the over-qualification rate exceeds one-third. A fiscal tightening shock raises the mismatch rate in the model, in line also with SVAR analysis. Skills mismatch can act as a buffer for high-skilled workers during recessions induced by tax shocks and is more counter-cyclical when CSC is weak. We also use the model to conduct welfare and policy analyses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 104984"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143464236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy interactions: The policy rate, asset purchases, and optimal policy with an interest rate peg 货币政策的相互作用：政策利率、资产购买和与利率挂钩的最优政策
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104985
Isabel Gödl-Hanisch , Ronald Mau , Jonathan Rawls
{"title":"Monetary policy interactions: The policy rate, asset purchases, and optimal policy with an interest rate peg","authors":"Isabel Gödl-Hanisch ,&nbsp;Ronald Mau ,&nbsp;Jonathan Rawls","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104985","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104985","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with a variable credit spread and scope for central bank asset purchases to matter. A novel financial and labor market interaction generates an endogenous cost-push channel in the Phillips curve and a credit wedge in the IS curve. These channels arise due to a liquidity premium to long-term debt present in our model. The “divine coincidence” holds with the nominal short rate and central bank balance sheet available as policy tools—dual-instrument policy. Targeting the liquidity premium using balance sheet policy provides a determinate equilibrium with a fixed policy rate, as does inflation-targeting balance sheet policy. While the liquidity premium in our model depends on unobservable components, the slope of the yield curve serves as a proxy for the liquidity premium when thinking about implementable monetary policy strategies that respond to observable variables alone. We quantify the welfare costs to various monetary policy strategies relative to the analytically derived optimal dual-instrument policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 104985"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143479594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unit cost expectations: Firms’ perspectives on inflation 单位成本预期：企业对通货膨胀的看法
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104955
Brent H. Meyer , Xuguang Simon Sheng
{"title":"Unit cost expectations: Firms’ perspectives on inflation","authors":"Brent H. Meyer ,&nbsp;Xuguang Simon Sheng","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104955","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104955","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a novel survey-based measure of nominal marginal cost expectations held by business decision makers to track building inflationary pressures and augment the existing set of inflation expectations data policymakers frequently monitor. Unlike other surveys of firms or households that elicit “aggregate” expectations, we focus on idiosyncratic costs that firms are well-aware of, plan for, and matter for price setting. We document four key findings. First, once aggregated, firms’ unit cost realizations closely comove with U.S. inflation statistics. Second, in aggregate, firms’ unit cost expectations significantly outperform households’ inflation expectations when inflation is low and are at least as accurate as the expectations of professional forecasters in out-of-sample forecasting exercises in high and low inflation environments. Third, utilizing special questions, we find evidence that information treatments about aggregate inflation and policymakers’ forecasts do little to alter firms’ unit cost expectations. And, lastly, we show that unit costs, at the firm level, are an important determinant of their own price setting behavior.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 104955"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
More effort with less pay: On information avoidance, optimistic beliefs, and performance 付出更少的努力：关于信息回避、乐观信念和绩效
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104965
Steffen Huck , Nora Szech , Lukas M. Wenner
{"title":"More effort with less pay: On information avoidance, optimistic beliefs, and performance","authors":"Steffen Huck ,&nbsp;Nora Szech ,&nbsp;Lukas M. Wenner","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Neoclassical theory presumes that agents value instrumental information. In contrast, recent behavioral studies motivate and model information avoidance. We study preferences for and against instrumental information in a real-effort task varying information structures on performance pay. Our study offers three main results. First, we confirm that both, preferences for and against instrumental information, exist. Second, information avoiders outperform information receivers. This result holds independently of effects of self-selection. Third, our findings about information avoiders can be aligned with behavioral theories of optimistic belief design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 104965"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do equal employment opportunity statements encourage racial minorities? evidence from a large natural field experiment 平等就业机会声明会鼓励少数种族吗？
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104987
Andreas Leibbrandt , John A. List
{"title":"Do equal employment opportunity statements encourage racial minorities? evidence from a large natural field experiment","authors":"Andreas Leibbrandt ,&nbsp;John A. List","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104987","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104987","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Labor force composition and the allocation of talent remain of vital import to organizations. For their part, governments and companies around the globe have implemented equal employment opportunity (EEO) regulations to influence labor market flows. Even though such regulations are pervasive, surprisingly little is known about their impacts. We use a natural field experiment conducted across 10 U.S. cities to investigate if EEO statements affect the first step in the employment process, application rates. Making use of data from over 2,000 job seekers, we find that the presence of an EEO statement in job advertisements does not encourage racial minorities’ willingness to apply for jobs. Our results highlight that if one goal of EEO regulations is to enhance the pool of minority applicants, then it is not working as we also observe discouragement effects in some cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 104987"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exporters, multinationals and residual wage inequality: Evidence and theory 出口商、跨国公司与剩余工资不平等：证据与理论
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104980
Sarah Schroeder
{"title":"Exporters, multinationals and residual wage inequality: Evidence and theory","authors":"Sarah Schroeder","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104980","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104980","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A growing empirical literature underscores the pivotal role of ”global firms” in shaping labour market outcomes, including inequality. These are firms that participate in the international economy across multiple dimensions, including both trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). This prompts an important question: Is wage inequality among workers with similar characteristics primarily influenced by firms engaged solely in exporting, those involved solely in FDI, or by multinational enterprises (MNEs) that do both? Using linked employer–employee panel data for Germany, this paper unveils nuanced patterns in wage premia among various internationalising establishments, where I identify sorting between workers and establishments as a key driver. I interpret these patterns using a theoretical model that incorporates trade and FDI with monopolistic competition, wherein heterogeneous firms operate within frictional labour markets as they search for workers. My model gives rise to a novel channel for the MNE wage premium, stemming from their ability to transfer their human resource practices to their plant abroad.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 104980"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy 全球价值链和菲利普斯曲线：对货币政策的挑战
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104966
Anna Florio , Daniele Siena , Riccardo Zago
{"title":"Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy","authors":"Anna Florio ,&nbsp;Daniele Siena ,&nbsp;Riccardo Zago","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104966","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104966","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how participation and position in Global Value Chains (GVCs) affect the slope of the Phillips Curve (PC) and, consequently, the ability of monetary policy to control inflation. Using data from the European Monetary Union (EMU) and value added measures of GVCs, we show that, beyond the role of trade openness, higher participation leads to a flatter PC. This evidence is consistent with the theoretical literature emphasising how globalisation can reduce the sensitivity of prices to unemployment due to stronger strategic complementarities, to higher market power and to imperfect exchange rate pass-through. On the other hand, the role of GVC position is not statistically significant.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 104966"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143444408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Delegation of learning from multiple sources of information 授权从多个信息来源学习
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104981
Angelos Diamantopoulos , Arina Nikandrova
{"title":"Delegation of learning from multiple sources of information","authors":"Angelos Diamantopoulos ,&nbsp;Arina Nikandrova","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104981","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104981","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A principal delegates a decision to a biased expert. Before taking the decision, the expert may undertake incremental learning about the unknown binary state from two alternative information sources. There are no transfers but the principal retains the right to terminate the expert’s learning to take the decision herself. The right to terminate learning benefits the principal when the preferences of the principal and the expert are sufficiently misaligned but may be detrimental when the preferences are sufficiently closely aligned.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 104981"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143395940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Greenflation: Empirical evidence using macro, regional and sectoral data 绿色通货膨胀：使用宏观、区域和部门数据的经验证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104983
Luca Bettarelli , Davide Furceri , Loredana Pisano , Pietro Pizzuto
{"title":"Greenflation: Empirical evidence using macro, regional and sectoral data","authors":"Luca Bettarelli ,&nbsp;Davide Furceri ,&nbsp;Loredana Pisano ,&nbsp;Pietro Pizzuto","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104983","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104983","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of climate change policies on inflation, for a large sample of 177 developed and developing economies, 78 subnational territorial areas and 17 sectors, over the period 1989–2022. We show that carbon taxes lead to inflationary pressures. The effect is not negligible: a one standard deviation carbon tax shock—corresponding to a 5$/tCO2 increase in emissions-weighted carbon taxes—leads to an increase of the price level of about 0.7 percent one year after the implementation of the policy, and between 1.6 and 4 percent in the medium term. These results hold at the national, sub-national and sectoral level. The effect is larger when inflation is initially high, and in regions (sectors) characterized by high emissions and low innovation capacity. In contrast, we find that emissions trading systems as well as non-market-based climate change policies (such as R&amp;D subsidies) do not have statistically significant effects on prices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 104983"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143444409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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