Deborah Gefang , Stephen G. Hall , George S. Tavlas , Yongli Wang
{"title":"Does one size fit all? The country-specific effects of ECB monetary policy","authors":"Deborah Gefang , Stephen G. Hall , George S. Tavlas , Yongli Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the way that a change in the ECB's monetary policy affects the members of the euro area in terms of the main macroeconomic aggregates – including inflation and output. Our data set consists of sixteen countries and covers the period from 2009 to 2023. We introduce a spatial VAR, which allows us to decouple the direct effects of a policy change from the spillover effects of the change. In contrast to standard spatial models, which use a predetermined spatial matrix, we estimate the spatial matrix endogenously, thus providing increased accuracy. We find generally symmetric reactions in inflation, output and the other main macro aggregates both in terms of the timing and the magnitude of shocks, and in the effects of shocks on the decomposition between direct and indirect (spillover) effects although there are occasional exceptions. We find that the indirect effects (spillover) effects are generally smaller than the direct effects but that in all cases they reinforce the direct effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 105025"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143825006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Carl Bonander , Olle Hammar , Niklas Jakobsson , Gunther Bensch , Felix Holzmeister , Abel Brodeur
{"title":"“Try to Balance the Baseline”: A comment on “Parent–teacher meetings and student outcomes: Evidence from a developing country” by Islam (2019)","authors":"Carl Bonander , Olle Hammar , Niklas Jakobsson , Gunther Bensch , Felix Holzmeister , Abel Brodeur","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Islam (2019) reports results from a cluster randomized field experiment in Bangladesh that examines the effects of parent–teacher meetings on student test scores in primary schools. The reported findings suggest strong positive effects across multiple subjects. In this report, we demonstrate that the school-level randomization cannot have been conducted as the author claims. Specifically, we show that the nine included Bangladeshi unions all have a share of either 0% or 100% treated or control schools. Additionally, we uncover irregularities in baseline scores, which for the same students and subjects vary systematically across the author’s data files in ways that are unique to either the treatment or control group. We also discovered data on two unreported outcomes and data collected from the year before the study began. Results using these data cast further doubt on the validity of the original study. Moreover, in a survey asking parents to evaluate the parent–teacher meetings, we find that parents in the control schools were more positive about this intervention than those in the treated schools. We also find undisclosed connections to two additional RCTs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 105021"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jesse D. Backstrom , Catherine C. Eckel , Ryan Rholes , Meradee Tangvatcharapong
{"title":"Behind the screens: A replication and extension of Coasian bargaining experiments in the digital age","authors":"Jesse D. Backstrom , Catherine C. Eckel , Ryan Rholes , Meradee Tangvatcharapong","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper replicates Hoffman and Spitzer's seminal Coasian bargaining experiments from the early 1980s and extends them to examine the impact of digital communication. We find that, while the face-to-face replication results mostly align with the original findings, transitioning to a digital environment induces a 23.3 percent decrease in efficient decision-making and over a fourfold increase in self-regarding behavior. These effects are amplified in one-shot bargaining scenarios and when property rights are strengthened and persist as bargainers gain experience. Our findings allude to several implications of digital communication for efficiency and welfare distributions in negotiation settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 105024"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143815678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The evolution of child-related gender inequality in Germany and the role of family policies, 1960–2018","authors":"Ulrich Glogowsky , Emanuel Hansen , Dominik Sachs , Holger Lüthen","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using German administrative data from the 1960s onward, this paper (i) examines the long-term evolution of child-related gender inequality in earnings and (ii) assesses the impact of family policies on this inequality. Our first (methodological) contribution is a decomposition approach that separates changes in child-related inequality into three components: the share of mothers, child penalties, and potential earnings of mothers (absent children). Our second contribution is a comprehensive analysis of child-related gender inequality in Germany. We derive three sets of findings. First, child penalties (i.e., the share of potential earnings mothers lose due to children) have increased strongly over the last decades. Mothers who had their first child in the 1960s faced much smaller penalties than those who gave birth in the 2000s. Second, the fraction of overall gender inequality in earnings attributed to children rose from 14% to 64% over our sample period. We show that this trend resulted not only from growing child penalties but also from rising potential earnings of mothers. Intuitively, in later decades, mothers had more income to lose from child-related career breaks. Third, we show that parental leave expansions between 1979 and 1992 amplified child penalties and explain nearly a third of the increase in child-related gender inequality. By contrast, a parental benefit reform in 2007 mitigated further increases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 105018"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143738051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Leaving the past behind: Effects of clean slate regulation on employment and earnings","authors":"Kabir Dasgupta , Keshar Ghimire , Alexander Plum","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the labor market implications of New Zealand’s clean slate initiative. The clean slate regulation allows automatic concealment of criminal records of previously convicted individuals who remain free of convictions for at least seven years (rehabilitation period) since their last sentence. We use detailed administrative data on criminal court charges to identify our sample of previously convicted individuals who are expected to have their criminal records automatically concealed upon completing their rehabilitation period. By linking our sample to high-frequency tax records including information on employment and earnings, we apply a difference-in-differences framework as well as models developed for staggered assignment of a treatment to study the causal mechanisms. Our analysis reveals that the clean slate reform did not affect eligible individuals’ employment propensity, but led to a modest but precisely estimated two-percent increase in monthly earnings of employed individuals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 105015"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143777467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the GDP effects of severe physical hazards","authors":"Martin Bodenstein , Mikaël Scaramucci","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use local projection methods with instrumental variables to analyze a panel dataset that links monetary damages and geophysical hazard strength (which serve as our instruments), associated with a wide range of severe weather events. This approach allows us to understand the GDP impact of these events at the country level. The estimated impulse response functions indicate a persistent GDP decline lasting several years after an increase in disaster-related monetary damages. More severe disasters leave a disproportionately larger negative effect on the economy. For the top 10 percent of disasters, GDP remains approximately 2 percent lower in the medium term (5-7 years) and does not fully recover over the 10-year horizon of our analysis. When disaggregating by disaster type, we find similar results across categories, with storms emerging as the primary driver. High-income countries experience significantly smaller effects than middle- and low-income countries. Our findings are robust to alternative impact measures, such as disaster-related deaths, the number of people affected, or a simple disaster occurrence indicator.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 105019"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143704640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mining and mistrust in government","authors":"Astghik Mavisakalyan , Anna Minasyan","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural resource extraction can undermine institutions through its negative impact on corruption and public goods provision, potentially affecting individual trust in local government. We examine this conjecture by combining geo-referenced survey data with spatial data on mine locations across 28 post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Using information on the development status of mineral reserves, we employ a cross-sectional difference-in-differences approach comparing individuals living near active versus not-yet-active mines. Our findings reveal a robust negative relationship between mining production and trust in local government. Analysis of mechanisms indicates that corruption perceptions and practices primarily drive this relationship. While examining alternative non-institutional channels, we find that environmental concerns may also contribute to government mistrust in specific contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 105002"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bénédicte Droz , Berno Buechel , Mónica Capra , Xi Chen , Anis Nassar , Seong Gyu Park , Jin Xu , Shanshan Zhang , Joshua Tasoff
{"title":"Appetite for Ignorance: Does eating meat cause information avoidance about its harms?","authors":"Bénédicte Droz , Berno Buechel , Mónica Capra , Xi Chen , Anis Nassar , Seong Gyu Park , Jin Xu , Shanshan Zhang , Joshua Tasoff","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Meat consumption is associated with environmental and animal-welfare harms, and many people consume more than is healthy. Past research has shown that conflicted consumers manage their beliefs in a variety of domains. Based on two independent studies, we test whether eating meat affects people’s preferences for information about the environmental, animal-welfare, and health harms of meat, as well as the alleged environmental benefits of animal agriculture. Our findings are mixed. Eating beef causes information avoidance about the environmental effects of cattle, and eating pork causes people to avoid information about the health effects of pork. Other results were not significant. We interpret these mixed results as suggesting that eating meat causes information avoidance, but the effects are nuanced as they are meat-specific and topic-specific. This project combines the independent explorations of two teams regarding the same research question. The joint conclusion reached differs from the initial independent conclusions. Consequently, this paper also serves as a case study about the sensitivity of scientific interpretation to experimental design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 105013"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143696640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Income uncertainty, precautionary wealth, and social insurance","authors":"Matthew Joyce, Aarti Singh","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Our estimates suggest that across the income distribution, households in the lowest income quintile face greater income risk and accumulate more precautionary wealth than those in the second-lowest income quintile in both Australian and later United States samples. In the earlier sample from United States, the lowest income quintile similarly experiences higher income risk, but contrary to later patterns, holds lower levels of precautionary wealth. Notably, for this earlier PSID sample period only, we find a negative correlation between wealth and participation in means tested programs. Using a structural life-cycle model, we demonstrate that changing the asset limit in means tested social insurance programs can potentially explain these suggestive differences in precautionary wealth among low-income households.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 105003"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A quantitative model of trust as a predictor of social group sizes and its implications for technology","authors":"M. Burgess , R.I.M. Dunbar","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The human capacity for working together and with tools builds on cognitive abilities that, while not unique to humans, are most developed in humans both in scale and plasticity. Our capacity to engage with collaborators and with technology requires a continuous expenditure of attentive work that we show may be understood in terms of what is heuristically argued as ‘trust’ in socio-economic fields. By adopting a ‘social physics’ of information approach, we are able to bring dimensional analysis to bear on an anthropological-economic issue. The cognitive-economic trade-off between group size and rate of attention to detail is the connection between these. This allows humans to scale cooperative effort across groups, from teams to communities, with a trade-off between group size and attention. We show here that an accurate concept of trust follows a bipartite ‘economy of work’ model, and that this leads to correct predictions about the statistical distribution of group sizes in society. Trust is essentially a cognitive-economic issue that depends on the memory cost of past behaviour and on the frequency of attentive policing of intent. All this leads to the characteristic ‘fractal’ structure for human communities. The balance between attraction to some alpha attractor and dispersion due to conflict fully explains data from all relevant sources. The implications of our method suggest a broad applicability beyond purely social groupings to general resource constrained interactions, e.g. in work, technology, cybernetics, and generalized socio-economic systems of all kinds.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 105012"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}