{"title":"Optimal banking regulation and monetary policy","authors":"Tai-Wei Hu , Yiting Li , Yilei Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105110","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105110","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In a money-search model with deposits as means of payment where banks are subject to limited commitment, we study optimal monetary policy in terms of interest on reserves and inflation, and optimal banking regulations with fiscal constraints on the central bank. The optimal design of banking regulations and monetary policy depends on the amount of productive assets used as collateral for bank deposit issuance and the fiscal requirement. In general, IOER can increase liquidity provision and hence enhance welfare, but it requires fiscal resources to do so, and an appropriate reserve requirement can increase both liquidity and fiscal revenue. This gives a novel channel to improve welfare through banking regulation. However, a positive nominal IOER can also be useful for fiscal purposes under relatively high inflation. For a given level of fiscal requirement, higher welfare is implemented with the consumer’s bargaining power less than one. As consumers hold more deposits for conducting trade, this may raise the tax base, enable less stringent banking regulations, and enhance welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105110"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144724486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Antonio Cabrales , Manu García , David Ramos Muñoz , Angel Sánchez
{"title":"The interactions of social norms about climate change: Science, institutions and economics","authors":"Antonio Cabrales , Manu García , David Ramos Muñoz , Angel Sánchez","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105107","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the evolution of interest in climate change among different actors within the population and how the interest of these actors affects one another. Our first contribution is to measure interest among the general public, the European Parliament, central banks, general interest science journals, and economics journals by creating a Climate Change Index (CCI) based on mentions of climate change in these domains. We also provide a game-theoretic network model of cross-influences between the actors in the economy. The model gives a prediction of the interactions between sectors related to the mutual interests embedded in the model parameters. We then estimate these parameters using a Vector Autoregression (VAR). The main results are that except for general interest science journals, the index for all other domains has started showing significant values only recently, and it tends to fluctuate considerably over time. In terms of influence, the European Parliament and the media affect one another, but the trend in science remains relatively independent of the others.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105107"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144724485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Valeria Gargiulo , Christian Matthes , Katerina Petrova
{"title":"Monetary policy across inflation regimes","authors":"Valeria Gargiulo , Christian Matthes , Katerina Petrova","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105109","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105109","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year inflation exceeds 5.5%. Below this threshold, changes in monetary policy have a short-lived effect on prices, but no effect on the unemployment rate, giving a potential explanation for the recent “soft-landing” in the United States. Above this threshold, the effects of monetary policy surprises on both inflation and unemployment can be larger and longer lasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105109"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144724484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the instability of fractional reserve banking","authors":"Heon Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105111","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105111","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a dynamic monetary model to study the (in)stability of the fractional reserve banking system. The model shows that the fractional reserve banking system can endanger stability in that equilibrium is more prone to exhibit endogenous cyclic, chaotic, and stochastic dynamics under lower reserve requirements, although it can increase consumption in the steady state. Introducing endogenous unsecured credit to the baseline model does not change the main results. The calibrated exercise suggests that this channel could be another source of economic fluctuations. This paper also provides empirical evidence that is consistent with the prediction of the model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105111"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144714306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
David Huffman , Garrett Kohno , Pauline Madiès , Spencer Vogrinec , Stephanie W. Wang , Dhwani Yagnaraman
{"title":"Measuring social norm variation across contexts: Replication and comparison to alternative methods","authors":"David Huffman , Garrett Kohno , Pauline Madiès , Spencer Vogrinec , Stephanie W. Wang , Dhwani Yagnaraman","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105097","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105097","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Studying social norms and how they vary in different contexts requires reliable measurements. We revisit the seminal Krupka and Weber (KW 2013) norm elicitation method and assess the importance of two dimensions of eliciting norms — first, whether to use the KW coordination game method or an alternative, two-stage method that directly elicits first-order or second-order beliefs about social appropriateness, and second, whether to use financial incentives. We replicate KW’s main finding of a qualitative difference in norms between the dictator game and a re-framed version that involves potentially taking money: KW and all other methods show that taking money is less socially appropriate than giving money, holding outcomes fixed and regardless of the presence of monetary incentives. However, we find that the difference in elicited social appropriateness between the two versions of the dictator game varies across methods, with elicited first-order beliefs exhibiting the largest gap in social appropriateness and KW exhibiting the smallest gap. One possible explanation is that strategic uncertainty and complexity in the KW method may attenuate sensitivity of the measure to differences in norms across contexts. A comprehension check reveals that about half of the KW participants initially misunderstood the task, and a prediction exercise reveals that first-order beliefs yield the best predictive power over actual behavior in simple dictator games. One implication is that first-order beliefs could be a simple alternative measure for capturing norm differences across contexts, with good predictive power. A caveat, however, is that first-order beliefs might be more subject to social desirability bias in settings with controversial or pluralistic norms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105097"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144722552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tatiana Kirsanova , Campbell Leith , Celsa Machado , Ana Paula Ribeiro
{"title":"(Re)Evaluating recent macroeconomic policy in the US","authors":"Tatiana Kirsanova , Campbell Leith , Celsa Machado , Ana Paula Ribeiro","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105091","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105091","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We build and estimate a small-scale DSGE mogement of the University of Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias S/N, 4200-464 Porto, Portugaldel of the US, where policy is described as the strategic interaction between monetary and fiscal policy makers following targeting rules. We use this model to analyse the two episodes where interest rates hit their zero lower bound (ZLB). We find that changing fiscal policy objectives, adopting suitably designed fiscal packages or a temporary price level target could have generated a partial lift-off from the ZLB following the financial crisis. However, under the latter two devices we would have returned to the ZLB. We find that the duration of the ZLB of 2020 was two quarters too long, and the Trump-Biden fiscal stimulus was inflationary, but even taken together, these factors do not wholly explain the subsequent hike in inflation, which instead is predominantly due to the lingering effects of Covid-era shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105091"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144687242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christopher J. Coyne , Nathan Goodman , André Quintas
{"title":"Ways of seeing the world: Legibility in alternative institutional settings","authors":"Christopher J. Coyne , Nathan Goodman , André Quintas","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Legibility refers to the ability of people to make sense of the world. In <em>Seeing Like a State</em>, James Scott (1998) employs this concept to analyze efforts by governments to make the world legible through top-down efforts of standardization and control. State efforts to impose order often generate harms because they lack access to local experiential knowledge (<em>mētis</em>). How, then, can people make sense of the complexities of the world? This paper explores the answer to this question by considering ways of making the world legible across institutional contexts. After examining Scott’s critique of state-imposed high modernism, we consider two alternative forms of legibility—the market process and local community. In doing so, we engage the criticism that markets can also be a form of imposition and control. We highlight the importance of market contestability as a way of encouraging the use of local knowledge. Finally, we argue that political capitalism makes market outcomes more akin to state-led high modernism, impeding desirable complementarities between market discovery and <em>mētis</em>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105116"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144702325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marcus Roesch , Michiel Gerritse , Bas Karreman , Frank van Oort , Bart Loog
{"title":"Do workers or firms drive the foreign acquisition wage gap?","authors":"Marcus Roesch , Michiel Gerritse , Bas Karreman , Frank van Oort , Bart Loog","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Foreign-acquired firms pay higher wages. The wage gap may arise with worker composition (e.g., sorting of high-quality workers) or firm-level premia (e.g., productivity improvements). We propose a dynamic decomposition on The Netherlands’ universal employer–employee data to understand the drivers of the post-acquisition wage gap. The wage gap rises from 1% to 5% after the acquisition, and firm level premia account for roughly three-quarters of the gap. The contribution of the workforce composition is initially absent, but grows to one-fifth of the wage gap, driven solely by new hires. Firm-level premia associate with higher management pay, worker training, and firms’ internationalization strategies. We show how the implied relative importance of worker sorting and firm-level development varies with assumptions on the counterfactual of the acquisition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105105"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144711636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Warning words in a warming world: Central bank communication and climate change","authors":"Emanuele Campiglio , Jérôme Deyris , Davide Romelli , Ginevra Scalisi","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105101","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105101","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study climate-related central bank communication using a novel dataset containing 35,487 speeches delivered by 131 central banks from 1986 to 2023. We employ natural language processing techniques to identify and trace the evolution of key climate-related narratives centred around (i) green finance, and (ii) climate-related financial risks. We find that central bank public communication strategies are primarily driven by underlying institutional factors, rather than exposure to climate-related risks. We then study the impact of climate-related communication on financial market dynamics through both a portfolio and a firm-level analysis. We find that equity returns of ‘green’ firms outperform those of ‘dirty’ firms when central banks engage more frequently and intensely with climate-related topics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105101"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144679553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do firms react to monetary policy in developing countries?","authors":"Djeneba Dramé , Florian Léon","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how firms in developing countries respond to monetary policy changes, focusing on both their perceptions of credit constraints and their borrowing behavior. Using firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) and a newly constructed database of monetary policy changes, we employ an event study approach to analyze how managers adjust their expectations of credit access in the days following a policy intervention. We complement this with a broader analysis of how annual policy rate changes affect firms’ credit applications. Our results show that firms perceive credit access as more restrictive after a policy rate hike, but do not significantly reduce their credit applications. Instead, credit demand increases after a rate cut, highlighting an asymmetric response to monetary policy. We also find substantial heterogeneity, with firms’ sensitivity depending not only on their proximity to banks, but also on the degree of liquidity of the banking market and the degree of independence of the central bank. These results provide new insights into the transmission of monetary policy in developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105102"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144654048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}