{"title":"Survey expectations, learning and inflation dynamics","authors":"Yuliya Rychalovska , Sergey Slobodyan , Raf Wouters","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a framework that exploits survey data on inflation expectations to refine the identification of processes that drive inflation in DSGE models. By decomposing fundamental markup shocks into persistent and transitory components, our approach effectively integrates timely survey information about the nature of inflation shocks, enhancing forecasts of inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Models with expectations based on a learning setup can more effectively utilize signals from the combined datasets of realized inflation and survey forecasts compared to their Rational Expectations counterparts. The learning model’s ability to generate time variation in the perceived inflation target, inflation persistence, and sensitivity to various shocks enables it to detect changes in the fundamental processes driving inflation. These features help overcome limitations of survey data and enhance forecast accuracy, particularly during periods when survey forecasts exhibit systematic prediction errors. Specifically, the model with learning successfully identifies the more persistent nature of the recent inflation surge.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 105118"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Survey expectations, learning and inflation dynamics","authors":"Yuliya Rychalovska , Sergey Slobodyan , Raf Wouters","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a framework that exploits survey data on inflation expectations to refine the identification of processes that drive inflation in DSGE models. By decomposing fundamental markup shocks into persistent and transitory components, our approach effectively integrates timely survey information about the nature of inflation shocks, enhancing forecasts of inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Models with expectations based on a learning setup can more effectively utilize signals from the combined datasets of realized inflation and survey forecasts compared to their Rational Expectations counterparts. The learning model’s ability to generate time variation in the perceived inflation target, inflation persistence, and sensitivity to various shocks enables it to detect changes in the fundamental processes driving inflation. These features help overcome limitations of survey data and enhance forecast accuracy, particularly during periods when survey forecasts exhibit systematic prediction errors. Specifically, the model with learning successfully identifies the more persistent nature of the recent inflation surge.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 105118"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Local labor market dynamics and agglomeration effects","authors":"Pierre Deschamps , Guillaume Wilemme","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105146","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105146","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Local labor market conditions are strongly persistent. Using a search-and-matching model with agglomeration effects and worker and firm migration, we study the transitional dynamics of a regional economy. The model is fitted to mimic local labor market dynamics using state-level U.S. time series. Agglomeration economies generate strong persistence in the employment level response to a labor demand shock, while agglomeration diseconomies dampen the shock. The amplification of the local unemployment rate response critically depends on wage rigidity. Short-term place-based policies can help the region since they dampen the impact of the shock on the employment level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 105146"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Local labor market dynamics and agglomeration effects","authors":"Pierre Deschamps , Guillaume Wilemme","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105146","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105146","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Local labor market conditions are strongly persistent. Using a search-and-matching model with agglomeration effects and worker and firm migration, we study the transitional dynamics of a regional economy. The model is fitted to mimic local labor market dynamics using state-level U.S. time series. Agglomeration economies generate strong persistence in the employment level response to a labor demand shock, while agglomeration diseconomies dampen the shock. The amplification of the local unemployment rate response critically depends on wage rigidity. Short-term place-based policies can help the region since they dampen the impact of the shock on the employment level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 105146"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ainoa Aparicio Fenoll , Nadia Campaniello , Ignacio Monzón
{"title":"Parental love is not blind: Identifying selection into early school start","authors":"Ainoa Aparicio Fenoll , Nadia Campaniello , Ignacio Monzón","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105145","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105145","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do parents take into account their children’s ability when deciding on their education? If so, are parents’ perceptions accurate? We study this by analyzing a key educational decision. Parents choose whether their children start elementary school one year early. Do they select high-ability children to start early? We propose a novel methodology to identify the sign and strength of selection into early starting. We find robust evidence of positive selection. Had they started regularly, early starters would have obtained test scores 0.2 standard deviations higher than the average student. We also estimate the effect of early starting on test scores and find that the effect is heterogeneous.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 105145"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145120264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What explains preferences for redistribution? Evidence from an international survey","authors":"Julien Bonnet , Emanuele Ciani , Gianluca Grimalda , Fabrice Murtin , David Pipke","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105150","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105150","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Income redistribution differs widely across countries. Several theories have been developed to account for such differences. However, we know little about their relative importance. This paper fills this gap, contrasting the main theories of preferences for redistribution in a unified empirical framework. We implement standardized hypothetical choices of income redistribution in nationally representative samples of Germany, Italy, Japan, Slovenia, the UK, and the US. We find that the beliefs in fair opportunities for upward mobility are the strongest predictor of demand for redistribution. Surprisingly, higher trust in government correlates with a lower demand. The perception of immigrants as a threat to society also significantly reduces preferences for redistribution, whereas other factors, such as self-interest, social capital, and incentivized measures of pro-sociality, play lesser roles. We uncover significant cross-country heterogeneity; for instance, beliefs in fair opportunities strongly influence redistribution preferences in the US, UK, and Germany, but are less impactful elsewhere. Our findings reveal limited variability in how theoretical factors relate to redistribution preferences across socio-demographic groups, with notable exceptions. Attitudes towards immigrants have a stronger influence on redistribution preferences among non-right-wing respondents in the US and Germany. Contrary to previous research, beliefs in fair opportunities show no significant differences by political orientation, indicating a widely accepted, ideologically neutral view of fairness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 105150"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ainoa Aparicio Fenoll , Nadia Campaniello , Ignacio Monzón
{"title":"Parental love is not blind: Identifying selection into early school start","authors":"Ainoa Aparicio Fenoll , Nadia Campaniello , Ignacio Monzón","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105145","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105145","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do parents take into account their children’s ability when deciding on their education? If so, are parents’ perceptions accurate? We study this by analyzing a key educational decision. Parents choose whether their children start elementary school one year early. Do they select high-ability children to start early? We propose a novel methodology to identify the sign and strength of selection into early starting. We find robust evidence of positive selection. Had they started regularly, early starters would have obtained test scores 0.2 standard deviations higher than the average student. We also estimate the effect of early starting on test scores and find that the effect is heterogeneous.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 105145"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145120265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What explains preferences for redistribution? Evidence from an international survey","authors":"Julien Bonnet , Emanuele Ciani , Gianluca Grimalda , Fabrice Murtin , David Pipke","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105150","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105150","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Income redistribution differs widely across countries. Several theories have been developed to account for such differences. However, we know little about their relative importance. This paper fills this gap, contrasting the main theories of preferences for redistribution in a unified empirical framework. We implement standardized hypothetical choices of income redistribution in nationally representative samples of Germany, Italy, Japan, Slovenia, the UK, and the US. We find that the beliefs in fair opportunities for upward mobility are the strongest predictor of demand for redistribution. Surprisingly, higher trust in government correlates with a lower demand. The perception of immigrants as a threat to society also significantly reduces preferences for redistribution, whereas other factors, such as self-interest, social capital, and incentivized measures of pro-sociality, play lesser roles. We uncover significant cross-country heterogeneity; for instance, beliefs in fair opportunities strongly influence redistribution preferences in the US, UK, and Germany, but are less impactful elsewhere. Our findings reveal limited variability in how theoretical factors relate to redistribution preferences across socio-demographic groups, with notable exceptions. Attitudes towards immigrants have a stronger influence on redistribution preferences among non-right-wing respondents in the US and Germany. Contrary to previous research, beliefs in fair opportunities show no significant differences by political orientation, indicating a widely accepted, ideologically neutral view of fairness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 105150"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fang Liu , Alexander Rasch , Marco A. Schwarz , Christian Waibel
{"title":"The role of diagnostic ability in markets for expert services","authors":"Fang Liu , Alexander Rasch , Marco A. Schwarz , Christian Waibel","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105126","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105126","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In credence goods markets, experts have better information about the appropriate quality of treatment than their customers. They may then exploit their informational advantage by defrauding customers. Market institutions have been shown theoretically to be effective in mitigating fraudulent expert behavior. We analyze whether this positive result carries over to a situation in which experts are heterogeneous in their diagnostic abilities. We find that efficient market outcomes are always possible. Inefficient equilibria, however, can also exist. If, in equilibrium, experts provide diagnosis-independent treatments, an increase in the experts’ ability or in the probability of high-ability experts might not improve market efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 105126"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145159982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fang Liu , Alexander Rasch , Marco A. Schwarz , Christian Waibel
{"title":"The role of diagnostic ability in markets for expert services","authors":"Fang Liu , Alexander Rasch , Marco A. Schwarz , Christian Waibel","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105126","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105126","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In credence goods markets, experts have better information about the appropriate quality of treatment than their customers. They may then exploit their informational advantage by defrauding customers. Market institutions have been shown theoretically to be effective in mitigating fraudulent expert behavior. We analyze whether this positive result carries over to a situation in which experts are heterogeneous in their diagnostic abilities. We find that efficient market outcomes are always possible. Inefficient equilibria, however, can also exist. If, in equilibrium, experts provide diagnosis-independent treatments, an increase in the experts’ ability or in the probability of high-ability experts might not improve market efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 105126"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145159916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}