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Density forecasts of inflation: A quantile regression forest approach 通货膨胀的密度预测：分位数回归森林方法
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105079
Michele Lenza , Inès Moutachaker , Joan Paredes
{"title":"Density forecasts of inflation: A quantile regression forest approach","authors":"Michele Lenza ,&nbsp;Inès Moutachaker ,&nbsp;Joan Paredes","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inflation density forecasts are a fundamental input for a medium-term-oriented central bank, such as the European Central Bank (ECB). We demonstrate that a quantile regression forest, which captures general non-linear relationships between euro area inflation (both headline and core) and a broad set of determinants, performs competitively against state-of-the-art linear and non-linear benchmarks and judgmental forecasts. The median forecasts generated by the quantile regression forest exhibit a high degree of collinearity with the Eurosystem inflation point forecasts, displaying similar deviations from “linearity”. Given that the Eurosystem’s modeling toolbox predominantly relies on linear frameworks, this finding suggests that the expert judgment embedded in the projections may incorporate mild non-linear elements. Finally, we provide a real-time application illustrating how the model is employed to assess risks surrounding the Eurosystem inflation projections in the context of the recent euro area disinflation path.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105079"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144298828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intelligence and strategy choice in indefinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma games: A replication of Proto, Rustichini & Sofianos (2022) 无限重复囚徒困境博弈中的智力和策略选择：Proto， Rustichini & Sofianos（2022）的复制
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105075
Michalis Drouvelis , Graeme Pearce
{"title":"Intelligence and strategy choice in indefinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma games: A replication of Proto, Rustichini & Sofianos (2022)","authors":"Michalis Drouvelis ,&nbsp;Graeme Pearce","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105075","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105075","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We provide a close replication of the original study of Proto et al. (2022) which examines the link between intelligence, strategy choice and errors in strategy implementation in indefinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma games. Our experiments, powered at 99% to detect the effect sizes obtained in the original study, replicate all the findings of the original study: (1) cooperation rates in the first period of an indefinitely repeated game are not found to be correlated with intelligence; (2) subjects with a higher level of intelligence are more likely to be conditionally cooperative; (3) more intelligent subjects make fewer errors when implementing their strategy. Our experiments validate the results of the original study, and lend credence to its findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105075"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144298827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Running the risk: Immunity and mobility in response to a pandemic 冒着风险：应对大流行的免疫力和流动性
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105057
Claudio Deiana , Andrea Geraci , Giovanni Mastrobuoni , Simon Weidenholzer
{"title":"Running the risk: Immunity and mobility in response to a pandemic","authors":"Claudio Deiana ,&nbsp;Andrea Geraci ,&nbsp;Giovanni Mastrobuoni ,&nbsp;Simon Weidenholzer","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105057","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105057","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The relative effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as lockdowns and work-from-home mandates, depends on whether individuals adjust their social behavior in response to infection risk when policy restrictions are absent. Exploiting geographic variation in COVID-19 exposure during the first wave, three key results emerge. First, we find evidence that areas with relatively high excess death rates during the first wave of the pandemic had relatively low excess death rates during the second wave. Second, using granular mobility data from GPS devices, we show that the same areas saw relatively high mobility during the second wave, which may suggest that the first finding is driven by an immunity effect. Finally, the heterogeneity analysis reveals that scarring, behavioral responses, and immunization may operate with varying intensity across municipalities with different age compositions, yielding observable differences in both second-wave mobility and mortality patterns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105057"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144147208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation and price flexibility 通货膨胀和价格弹性
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105056
Ivan Petrella , Emiliano Santoro , Yannik Winkelmann
{"title":"Inflation and price flexibility","authors":"Ivan Petrella ,&nbsp;Emiliano Santoro ,&nbsp;Yannik Winkelmann","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using UK consumer price microdata, we report that aggregate <em>price flexibility</em> varies substantially over time and induces significant non-linearity in inflation. In a regime of high flexibility, the half-life of inflation drops by 50% and its volatility rises considerably. Such asymmetry arises naturally from state-dependent pricing, of which we find ample evidence in the data, particularly following the Great Recession. Neglecting this property may lead to a systematic underprediction of inflation, as seen in the post-pandemic inflation surge. Tracking real-time movements in price flexibility is crucial for assessing inflation dynamics and informing monetary policy decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105056"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144223370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
IMF programs and borrowing costs does size matter? 国际货币基金组织的项目和借贷成本规模重要吗？
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105070
Salim Chahine , Ugo Panizza , Guilherme Suedekum
{"title":"IMF programs and borrowing costs does size matter?","authors":"Salim Chahine ,&nbsp;Ugo Panizza ,&nbsp;Guilherme Suedekum","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105070","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105070","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies whether IMF programs and their size affect borrowing costs by comparing bonds issued immediately before the onset of the program with bonds issued immediately after the program. We show that, on average, the approval of the program leads to a 72-basis points reduction in borrowing costs and that program size matters. Our point estimates indicate that when program size increases by one percent of GDP, borrowing costs decrease by 23 basis points. We also show that program size mostly matters for ex-post programs (i.e., those implemented during crises). For precautionary ex-ante programs, there is some evidence that program size attenuates the reduction in borrowing costs. However, this effect is small and in most cases IMF programs still lead to a statistically significant reduction in borrowing costs</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105070"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Labor market institutions, productivity, and the business cycle: An application to Italy 劳动力市场制度、生产率和商业周期：在意大利的应用
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105048
Josué Diwambuena , Raquel Fonseca , Stefan Schubert
{"title":"Labor market institutions, productivity, and the business cycle: An application to Italy","authors":"Josué Diwambuena ,&nbsp;Raquel Fonseca ,&nbsp;Stefan Schubert","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105048","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105048","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the effect of labor market institutions on the cyclicality of labor productivity and aggregate fluctuations in Italy when two wage bargaining protocols (efficient Nash and right-to-manage) interact with three types of hiring costs. It uses a New Keynesian model with labor market frictions and labor effort estimated with Bayesian techniques using Italian quarterly data from 1996Q1 to 2018Q4. We find that technology shocks mainly explain labor productivity fluctuations. We focus on labor market deregulation by reducing real wage rigidity, hiring costs, and worker’s bargaining power. We show that, when labor effort varies, reforms trigger procyclical productivity under efficient bargaining, and countercyclical productivity under right-to-manage bargaining. Reforms have different effects on the volatility of labor market variables. We carry out several sensitivity analyses which confirm our results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105048"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144254045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy in the euro area: Active or passive? 欧元区货币政策：主动还是被动？
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105050
Alice Albonico , Guido Ascari , Qazi Haque
{"title":"Monetary policy in the euro area: Active or passive?","authors":"Alice Albonico ,&nbsp;Guido Ascari ,&nbsp;Qazi Haque","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105050","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105050","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area from the introduction of the euro to mid-2023, testing for indeterminacy in monetary policy. While the indeterminacy model occasionally fits the data better, this result is fragile and sensitive to technical assumptions, particularly the correlation between sunspot and fundamental shocks. Additionally, inflation responses under indeterminacy contradict standard economic theory and empirical evidence. In contrast, the determinacy model aligns with both theory and empirical data, particularly in response to monetary policy shocks. Our findings support the view that monetary policy in the euro area has been sufficiently active to stabilize inflation and prevent self-fulfilling inflationary expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105050"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144124885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modelling singularities in macroevolution 宏观进化中的奇点建模
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105052
Alessandro Bellina , Giordano De Marzo , Vittorio Loreto
{"title":"Modelling singularities in macroevolution","authors":"Alessandro Bellina ,&nbsp;Giordano De Marzo ,&nbsp;Vittorio Loreto","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105052","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105052","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Macroevolutionary dynamics often display sudden, explosive surges, where systems remain relatively stable for extended periods before experiencing dramatic acceleration that frequently exceeds traditional exponential growth. This pattern is evident in biological evolution, cultural shifts, and technological progress and is often referred to as the emergence of singularities. Despite their widespread occurrence, these explosions arise from distinct underlying mechanisms in different domains. In this context, we present a unified framework that captures these dynamics through a theory of combinatorial innovation. Building on the Theory of the Adjacent Possible, we model macroevolutionary change as a process driven by recombining pre-existing elements within a system. By formalising these qualitative insights, we provide a mathematical structure that explains the emergence of these explosive phenomena, facilitates comparisons across different systems, and enables predictive insights into future evolutionary trajectories. Moreover, by comparing discrete and continuous formalisations of the theory, we emphasise that the occurrence and observation of these presumed singularities should be carefully considered, as they arise from the continuous limit of inherently discrete models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105052"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144131364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Know thy enemy: Information acquisition in contests 了解你的敌人：在竞赛中获取信息
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105051
Zhuoqiong Chen
{"title":"Know thy enemy: Information acquisition in contests","authors":"Zhuoqiong Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105051","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105051","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the incentives for and consequences of acquiring information about rivals in winner-take-all contests. Each player can acquire private information about the rival’s value from an arbitrarily large set of signals before the competition. A player who acquires a more accurate signal than their rival wins more often with the same expected effort as the rival. Being the target of a rival’s information acquisition does not harm the player, and learning partial information about each other benefits both players. Nevertheless, they may choose not to acquire any information if the accuracies of their signals are not publicly observable.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105051"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Endogenous business cycles with small and large firms 小型企业和大型企业的内生经济周期
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105058
Qazi Haque , Oscar Pavlov , Mark Weder
{"title":"Endogenous business cycles with small and large firms","authors":"Qazi Haque ,&nbsp;Oscar Pavlov ,&nbsp;Mark Weder","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105058","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105058","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent decades have seen a rise in the market power of large firms. We propose a theory in which their technology involves the ability to produce multiple products. Large firms interact with smaller competitors and market share reallocations via product creation generate heterogeneous markup dynamics across the firm types. Higher market shares of large firms increase the parameter space for macroeconomic indeterminacy. Bayesian estimation of the general equilibrium model suggests the importance of the endogenous amplification of the product creation channel and animal spirits play a non-trivial role in driving U.S. business cycles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105058"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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