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Supply shocks, employment gap, and monetary policy 供给冲击、就业缺口和货币政策
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105049
Takushi Kurozumi , Willem Van Zandweghe
{"title":"Supply shocks, employment gap, and monetary policy","authors":"Takushi Kurozumi ,&nbsp;Willem Van Zandweghe","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105049","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105049","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How should monetary policy respond to supply shocks in terms of inflation and employment stabilization? We introduce labor force entry and exit in an otherwise standard model with staggered price- and wage-setting to include employment in the model. A welfare-maximizing policy features wage growth stabilization with variation in the employment gap and inflation. Under staggered price- and wage-setting, the real wage adjustments to shocks entail a welfare cost, and variation in the employment gap contributes to reducing the welfare cost. Therefore, leaning against the employment gap induces substantial welfare losses for supply shocks compared to the welfare-maximizing policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105049"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
AI innovation and the labor share in European regions 人工智能创新与欧洲地区的劳动份额
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105043
Antonio Minniti , Klaus Prettner , Francesco Venturini
{"title":"AI innovation and the labor share in European regions","authors":"Antonio Minniti ,&nbsp;Klaus Prettner ,&nbsp;Francesco Venturini","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) affects the distribution of income between capital and labor, and how these shifts contribute to regional income inequality. To investigate this issue, we analyze data from European regions dating back to 2000. We find that for every doubling of regional AI innovation, the labor share declines by 0.5% to 1.6%, potentially reducing it by 0.09 to 0.31 percentage points from an average of 52%, solely due to AI. This new technology has a particularly negative impact on high- and medium-skill workers, primarily through wage compression, while for low-skill workers, employment expansion induced by AI mildly offsets the associated wage decline. The effect of AI is not driven by other factors influencing regional development in Europe or by the concentration of the AI market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105043"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144083940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe 绿色股票和货币政策冲击：来自欧洲的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105044
Michael D. Bauer , Eric A. Offner , Glenn D. Rudebusch
{"title":"Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe","authors":"Michael D. Bauer ,&nbsp;Eric A. Offner ,&nbsp;Glenn D. Rudebusch","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Policymakers and researchers, notably in Europe, have expressed concerns that the low-carbon transition may be inadvertently delayed by higher global interest rates. To examine whether green investment is especially sensitive to interest rate increases, we consider the effect of unanticipated monetary policy changes on the equity prices of green and brown European firms. We find that brown firms, measured in terms of carbon emission levels or intensities, are more negatively affected than green firms by tighter monetary policy. This heterogeneity is robust to different monetary policy surprises, emission measures, econometric methods, and sample periods, and it is not explained by other firm characteristics. This evidence suggests that higher interest rates may not skew investment away from a sustainable transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105044"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The short-run employment effects of public infrastructure investment 公共基础设施投资的短期就业效应
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105046
Alexander Matusche
{"title":"The short-run employment effects of public infrastructure investment","authors":"Alexander Matusche","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105046","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105046","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I study the stimulus effects of a permanent expansion of public investment that improves long-run productivity. Through an <em>anticipation effect on labor demand</em>, the policy change raises employment already in the short-run. In a model with search and matching labor market, I characterize the <em>employment multiplier of public investment</em> analytically and show that it is larger in a recession than a boom. Calibrated to the US, the model yields an increase in employment of 0.26 percentage points one year after a permanent expansion of public investment by 1% of GDP. The anticipation effect accounts for 65% of the employment gain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105046"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices 能源供给冲击对产出和价格的非线性影响
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105037
Roberto A. De Santis , Tommaso Tornese
{"title":"Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices","authors":"Roberto A. De Santis ,&nbsp;Tommaso Tornese","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a Bayesian Threshold Vector Autoregression model with sign, magnitude, and narrative restrictions to examine the nonlinear effects of energy supply shocks. Our results show that these shocks have a stronger and more persistent impact on consumer prices in high-inflation regimes, where firms raise prices in line with costs, leading to muted short-term output effects and medium-term output declines. The central bank reacts tightening rates in high-inflation regimes but lowers them in low-inflation periods to support output. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating state-dependence in DSGE models to capture price dynamics more accurately.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 105037"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143948395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Asymmetric information and the securitization of SME loans 信息不对称与中小企业贷款证券化
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105053
Ugo Albertazzi , Margherita Bottero , Leonardo Gambacorta , Steven Ongena
{"title":"Asymmetric information and the securitization of SME loans","authors":"Ugo Albertazzi ,&nbsp;Margherita Bottero ,&nbsp;Leonardo Gambacorta ,&nbsp;Steven Ongena","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105053","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105053","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using data from the Italian credit register encompassing all loans granted to firms, we examine the correlations between risk-transfer and default probabilities to gauge the severity of informational asymmetries in the securitization market for loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). First, the analysis confirms the presence of information frictions. Second, the unconditional quality of securitized loans remains significantly higher than that of non-securitized ones, consistent with the view that market participants anticipate the presence of information frictions and carefully select which loans to securitize to offset the detrimental effects of asymmetric information. Third, by analyzing firms with multiple bank relationships, we provide insights into the relative importance of adverse selection and moral hazard as forms of informational friction. While adverse selection is widespread, moral hazard is primarily observed in weaker relationships, implying that loans in these cases exhibit limited commitment from banks to engage in costly monitoring.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105053"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Entry, exit, and market structure in a changing climate 气候变化中的进入、退出和市场结构
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105027
Michele Cascarano, Filippo Natoli, Andrea Petrella
{"title":"Entry, exit, and market structure in a changing climate","authors":"Michele Cascarano,&nbsp;Filippo Natoli,&nbsp;Andrea Petrella","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme temperatures have long-run effects on the size and composition of a country’s business sector. Administrative data on the universe of Italian firms show that higher temperatures slow the growth of active firms in the market, mainly due to a drop in entry rates and an increase in exit rates in warmer areas. Balance sheet data analyses suggest a dichotomy between large, young companies, which adapt and survive improving their profitability, and older, smaller-sized firms persistently suffering from hot temperatures. According to an average climate scenario, temperatures will impact business dynamics further in the future, exacerbating the differences between warmer and colder areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 105027"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144068376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic opinion updating with endogenous networks 基于内生网络的动态意见更新
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105045
Ugo Bolletta , Paolo Pin
{"title":"Dynamic opinion updating with endogenous networks","authors":"Ugo Bolletta ,&nbsp;Paolo Pin","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105045","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105045","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Polarization is a well-documented phenomenon across a wide range of social issues. However, existing theories often treat the evolution of individual opinions and the formation of social networks as separate processes. In this study, we examine how individuals dynamically adjust their opinions while simultaneously forming and dissolving social connections, highlighting the interconnected nature of these behaviors. Our model is based on two key parameters: the direct benefit individuals receive from social connections and their willingness to adapt their opinions to align with their social circle. We identify conditions under which the network fails to achieve full connectivity, leading to persistent polarization of opinions. Additionally, our model demonstrates that polarization can temporarily increase during the transition to consensus, depending on the initial distribution of opinions and network structure. We explore the connection between these scenarios and a critical network metric: the initial diameter, under specific conditions related to the initial distribution of opinions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 105045"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143941621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Explaining preferences for EU integration: Theory and empirical evidence 解释对欧盟一体化的偏好：理论和经验证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105038
Ingrid Mauerer , M. Socorro Puy , Sergi Urzay-Gómez
{"title":"Explaining preferences for EU integration: Theory and empirical evidence","authors":"Ingrid Mauerer ,&nbsp;M. Socorro Puy ,&nbsp;Sergi Urzay-Gómez","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present and empirically test a model that explains how European citizens form their preferences for integration, which is crucial for understanding the public support for EU advancement. The model incorporates varying levels of information and awareness of how EU legislation impacts national politics as well as economic considerations. The empirical results indicate that European citizens tend to be aware of the interplay between EU laws and national legislation. We reach this conclusion by showing that further EU integration is supported by citizens who believe EU legislation amends their national policies. By contrast, Euroscepticism emerges among citizens who perceive the EU as interfering in their domestic politics. Our theory and empirical evidence suggest that citizens see EU legislation as correcting or undermining national politics, contrasting with other theories that directly link support for integration and Euroscepticism to left- and right-wing ideological orientations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 105038"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143918368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public debt burden and crisis severity 公共债务负担和危机严重程度
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105028
Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo , Iván Payá
{"title":"Public debt burden and crisis severity","authors":"Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo ,&nbsp;Iván Payá","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent theoretical studies have highlighted that both the level of public debt and the unit cost of servicing the debt (<span><math><mrow><mi>r</mi><mo>−</mo><mi>g</mi></mrow></math></span>) play a role in the sustainability of public finances. This paper builds on this literature and introduces a new approach to analysing the relationship between economic downturns and sovereign debt risks by considering the total public debt burden, that is, the interaction between the level of debt and <span><math><mrow><mi>r</mi><mo>−</mo><mi>g</mi></mrow></math></span>. We conduct this analysis for 18 advanced economies over a span of 150 years, uncovering three novel findings. First, we document that the level of public debt and the interest-growth differential convey distinct information about public finances conditions, reinforcing the argument for incorporating both measures in the assessment of sovereign debt sustainability risks. Second, we offer a long-term historical perspective on the role of the total public debt burden in shaping the severity of recessions and the pace of subsequent recoveries. Our findings demonstrate that a high public debt burden is associated with deeper economic contractions, sharper declines in investment, deflationary pressures, and pronounced credit contractions during recessions. Further analysis of plausible transmission mechanisms suggests that an elevated total debt burden at the onset of recessions is linked to more limited accommodative policies during financial crises. Third, we document the feedback effects of financial crises on the components of the total public debt burden, demonstrating that both the level and cost of public debt systematically deteriorate, thereby heightening the risk of sovereign debt crises in the aftermath of financial turmoil.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 105028"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143948396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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