{"title":"Housing prices propagation: A theory of spatial interactions","authors":"Christophe Bruneel-Zupanc , Guillaume Chapelle , Jean-Benoît Eyméoud , Etienne Wasmer","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105252","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105252","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A puzzle is that price-to-rent ratios in the housing market of a given urban area vary a lot in time and space. In some contexts, accounting for differences in local discount rates or rent growth differences is not sufficient. We propose a variant of asset pricing equations for housing markets that include a price gradient in space. It is analogous to the transport equation in physics and generates a new range of solutions consistent with the facts. The main rationale for the price gradient in the asset pricing equation is the existence of spatial search frictions for housing, but other informational frictions are discussed. The main mechanism is supported by the data analysis of a large urban area, Paris region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 105252"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145885960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
European Economic ReviewPub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-29DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105235
Laura Muñoz-Blanco
{"title":"Reservoir-induced displacement and social participation: Evidence from the Spanish dictatorship","authors":"Laura Muñoz-Blanco","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105235","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105235","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What are the long-term impacts of large inflows of forcibly displaced persons on displaced-hosting social participation outcomes? This paper addresses this question by exploring the construction of reservoirs during the Spanish dictatorship (1936–1975), which forced thousands of people into displacement. I implement an instrumental variable approach using the margin of whether the reservoir closest to a municipality was planned before the dictatorship, as well as its size and distance. To this end, I rely on a newly assembled historical panel dataset on forced displacement and social participation. I show that <em>host</em> municipalities experience a long-term and sizable decrease in voter turnout and new associations between 1977 and 2019. In turn, a higher share of the internally displaced population relative to natives mitigate these effects. I propose two mechanisms associated with the drop in institutional and general trust in <em>host</em> municipalities. The findings highlight the need to strengthen social cohesion between natives and forcibly displaced groups.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 105235"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145885964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quasi-fiscal policies in times of crisis: A high-frequency data analysis","authors":"Luisa Corrado , Daniela Fantozzi , Simona Giglioli","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105265","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105265","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the macroeconomic and distributional impact of quasi-fiscal (QF) policies implemented by the Federal Reserve during the Covid-19 crisis. Using high-frequency, county-level data on consumption and employment, we distinguish between purely monetary measures — such as interest rate cuts and asset purchases — and quasi-fiscal tools like credit facilities and liquidity programs. We show that QF interventions generated faster and stronger effects on both consumption and employment compared to conventional tools, with responses materializing within two to three weeks of announcements. Moreover, we find that these effects were not evenly distributed across US counties: consumption inequality increased in the short term, with wealthier counties experiencing larger gains. We explore the underlying mechanisms and show that both asset-price-related wealth effects and credit availability through lending facilities played key roles, especially in regions with higher capital income and greater access to loans. Our findings suggest that while QF policies can act as effective stabilizers during crises, they may also exacerbate spatial inequalities in the short run, raising new questions for central bank accountability and policy design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 105265"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
European Economic ReviewPub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105245
Jonas Jessen , Lavinia Kinne , Michele Battisti
{"title":"Child penalties in labour market skills","authors":"Jonas Jessen , Lavinia Kinne , Michele Battisti","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105245","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105245","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper estimates child penalties in labour-market-relevant cognitive skills, such as numeracy but also literacy and problem-solving competencies. We use international PIAAC data and adapt a pseudo-panel approach to a single cross-section covering 29 countries. Numeracy scores, which are associated with the largest returns to skills and pronounced gender differences, decline by 0.11 standard deviations for fathers and an additional 0.07 for mothers. We find no evidence of a deterioration in the occupational skill match for either mothers or fathers. Our findings suggest that changes in general labour market skills such as numeracy competencies explain at most 10% of child penalties in earnings. We additionally show that cross-sectional estimates of child penalties can be sensitive to controlling for predetermined characteristics that vary across cohorts, in our case education.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 105245"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145814311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
European Economic ReviewPub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105243
Christophe Cahn , Patrick Fève , Julien Matheron
{"title":"The long-run effects of Fiscal Rebalancing in a heterogeneous-agent model","authors":"Christophe Cahn , Patrick Fève , Julien Matheron","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105243","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105243","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the long-run macroeconomic effects of a Fiscal Rebalancing reform that shifts taxation from payroll to consumption under a balanced-budget constraint. Using a heterogeneous-agent model calibrated to French data, we compare pre- and post-reform steady states. The reform increases both aggregate labor and capital, with a stronger impact on capital in the heterogeneous-agent model than in its representative-agent counterpart. It also heightens wealth inequality, as a disproportionate share of the increase in aggregate wealth accrues to wealthier households. A welfare analysis that accounts for transition dynamics reveals positive average welfare effects overall, although high-wealth and, separately, low-productivity households experience welfare losses. The results are robust across alternative calibrations and model specifications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 105243"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145885965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
European Economic ReviewPub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-20DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105239
Guohao Yang
{"title":"Infrastructure and global value chain position: Evidence from China","authors":"Guohao Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105239","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105239","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the impact of transportation costs on a country’s participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs) and the consequential role of the processing producers. In doing so, I incorporate the processing production into a sequential production model <em>à la</em> Antrás and de Gortari (2020) with a multivariate Frechet distribution. My model predicts that a reduction in foreign trade costs increases the specialization of a region in exporting downstream products, and processing exports are more responsive to foreign trade costs than ordinary exports. These two predictions are consistent with the empirical facts documented by the development of the Chinese Expressway between 2000 and 2010, which serves as a natural experiment. In my welfare analysis, my model shows that a reduction in foreign transportation costs leads to a 0.4% of aggregate welfare gain, and processing exporters can explain up to 80% of this welfare gain. However, removing expressways and processing policies together results in a welfare loss of 4.82%, lower than the loss of removing expressways alone, which is 17.3%. This suggests that the implementation of the processing trade policy is not always beneficial when considering the placement of transportation infrastructure. This is because transportation infrastructure changes the relative importance of domestic and foreign markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 105239"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
European Economic ReviewPub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-19DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105241
Michael Ehrmann , Paul Hubert
{"title":"Information acquisition ahead of monetary policy announcements","authors":"Michael Ehrmann , Paul Hubert","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105241","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105241","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exploiting the “quiet period” before European Central Bank (ECB) announcements, this paper studies ECB-related content on X/Twitter to better understand how investors acquire information about upcoming monetary policy decisions in the absence of central bank signals. We first document that attention is endogenous, as tweet traffic positively correlates with the magnitude of subsequent monetary policy surprises. Second, when there is large disagreement about the economic outlook, more tweet traffic is associated with an improved accuracy of market expectations already during the quiet period, thereby leading to smaller monetary policy surprises. This suggests that information exchange can improve expectation formation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 105241"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145842799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
European Economic ReviewPub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105261
Mara Barschkett
{"title":"The early bird gets the germs? The impact of early daycare attendance on children’s health","authors":"Mara Barschkett","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105261","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105261","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent decades, the share of very young children in daycare has significantly increased in many OECD countries, including Germany. Despite the critical role of child health in development and later life success, the impact of early daycare attendance on health has received little attention in the economic literature. This study examines the effects of a substantial daycare expansion in Germany on children’s dynamic mental and physical health outcomes by age. Drawing on a unique set of administrative health records covering 90% of the German population over a ten-year period, I exploit exogenous variation in daycare attendance induced by this expansion. My findings indicate a substitution of illness spells from elementary school to the early years of daycare. Specifically, early daycare attendance is associated with a 5–6 percent increase in the prevalence of respiratory and infectious diseases, as well as healthcare consumption among children aged 1–2 years. Conversely, by elementary school age (6–10 years), the prevalence of these conditions decreases by a similar magnitude. However, I find no evidence of daycare attendance affecting mental disorders, obesity, injuries, vision problems, or healthcare costs. Additional analyses reveal earlier detection of vision problems and a reduction in obesity among children from disadvantaged backgrounds, as well as beneficial spillover effects on parents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 105261"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Seeing and hearing is believing: The role of audiovisual communication in shaping inflation expectations","authors":"Elliott Ash, Heiner Mikosch, Alexis Perakis, Samad Sarferaz","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105253","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105253","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents novel causal evidence on the effect of different communication channels employed by central banks on people’s expectations about future inflation. In a pre-registered randomized survey experiment among a representative household sample, we examine adjustment of inflation expectations when confronted with a press conference statement by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) articulating the bank’s commitment to its 2% inflation target. We show that the medium of communication matters, holding the content of the message constant: Relative to a text transcript, audiovisual mediums strengthen updating toward the inflation target, with dynamic mediums (audio and video) being more effective than static mediums (photo). In a Bayesian updating framework, we find that audiovisual communication increases the signal gain as compared to textual communication, i.e., respondents put more weight on the information they receive. We also show that economically less-informed households (those consuming less economic news) are more responsive in updating to audiovisual mediums. Overall, our results suggest that central bank messages aimed directly at the public can help to anchor inflation expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 105253"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
European Economic ReviewPub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105244
Jana Schuetz
{"title":"Beliefs about the gender pension gap","authors":"Jana Schuetz","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105244","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105244","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I conduct an online survey of 3000 respondents in the United States to examine individuals’ beliefs about the gender pension gap. By including an information provision experiment in which treated respondents are informed about the size of the gender pension gap, I examine whether receiving this information causally affects respondents’ perceptions of the fairness and drivers of the gender pension gap and their support for policies aimed at reducing it. I find that most respondents underestimate the gender pension gap and that treated respondents are less likely to perceive the gender pension gap as fair. In addition, treated respondents perceive the unequal distribution of care work and gender differences in wages as more important drivers of the gap, and their demand for remedial policies such as targeted financial education increases significantly. This increase in policy demand is driven by male respondents and Republicans.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 105244"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145927376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}