通货膨胀制度下的货币政策

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105109

Valeria Gargiulo , Christian Matthes , Katerina Petrova

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引用次数: 0

摘要

货币政策的效果是否取决于当前的通货膨胀水平？为了回答这个问题，我们构造了一个允许通货膨胀制度的简约非线性时间序列模型。我们发现，当年通货膨胀率超过5.5%时，货币政策的效果明显不同。低于这个阈值，货币政策的变化对价格有短暂的影响，但对失业率没有影响，这可能解释了美国最近的“软着陆”。超过这个阈值，货币政策对通胀和失业的意外影响可能更大，持续时间更长。

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Monetary policy across inflation regimes

Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year inflation exceeds 5.5%. Below this threshold, changes in monetary policy have a short-lived effect on prices, but no effect on the unemployment rate, giving a potential explanation for the recent “soft-landing” in the United States. Above this threshold, the effects of monetary policy surprises on both inflation and unemployment can be larger and longer lasting.

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来源期刊

European Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

4.70

自引率

3.60%

发文量

170

期刊介绍： The European Economic Review (EER) started publishing in 1969 as the first research journal specifically aiming to contribute to the development and application of economics as a science in Europe. As a broad-based professional and international journal, the EER welcomes submissions of applied and theoretical research papers in all fields of economics. The aim of the EER is to contribute to the development of the science of economics and its applications, as well as to improve communication between academic researchers, teachers and policy makers across the European continent and beyond.