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Uninsurable income risk and the welfare effects of reducing global imbalances 不可保险收入风险和减少全球失衡的福利效应
IF 2.4 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105104
Ayşe Dur , Andrew Glover , Jacek Rothert
{"title":"Uninsurable income risk and the welfare effects of reducing global imbalances","authors":"Ayşe Dur ,&nbsp;Andrew Glover ,&nbsp;Jacek Rothert","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the welfare effect of policies that balance net foreign assets when households face uninsurable income risk and borrowing constraints. Subsidizing savings in debtor economies balances net foreign assets and raises the welfare of almost all citizens by increasing world capital and raising wages: in the presence of uninsurable income risk, higher wages create a positive pecuniary externality that raises welfare for low-wealth households. The same balancing of net foreign assets is achieved by discouraging savings in lender economies. However, this policy hurts most households by reducing global capital. These results suggest that balancing global imbalances may be a positive byproduct of raising investment rates, especially in debtor countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 105104"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144919942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Conflict victimization shapes norms of rule compliance: Evidence from Colombia 冲突受害塑造了遵守规则的规范：来自哥伦比亚的证据
IF 2.4 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105115
Gustav Agneman
{"title":"Conflict victimization shapes norms of rule compliance: Evidence from Colombia","authors":"Gustav Agneman","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how conflict victimization influences civilians’ tendency to comply (or not) with armed actors, a behavioral measure which is elicited through a lab-in-the field experiment in Meta, Colombia. Violence could promote compliance or non-compliance depending on whether a “fear of punishment” or a “taste for retribution” dominates. I find that conflict victimization increases rule violations against the main insurgent group (the <em>FARC-EP</em>) but has no effect on participants’ tendency to violate rules associated with the Colombian Armed Forces. The link between victimization and non-compliance with the FARC-EP is explained by the more frequent victimization of civilians by the insurgent group, suggesting that violent targeting of civilians fosters resistance rather than submission. I support a causal interpretation through an instrumental variable approach that leverages the distance to a historic front-line as an instrument for victimization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 105115"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144879645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consumption effects of job loss expectations—New evidence for the euro area 失业预期的消费效应——欧元区的新证据
IF 2.4 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105080
António Dias da Silva, Desislava Rusinova, Marco Weißler
{"title":"Consumption effects of job loss expectations—New evidence for the euro area","authors":"António Dias da Silva,&nbsp;Desislava Rusinova,&nbsp;Marco Weißler","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Job loss expectations have predictive power for job loss and consumption. Using novel data, we find that the negative consumption response to an unexpected job loss is muted for workers with ex-ante job loss expectations — consistent with the Permanent Income Hypothesis — but stronger for workers with higher expected shock persistence. However, we do not find a positive consumption response of workers who unexpectedly retain their job. We relate this to persistent job loss expectations of non-displaced workers and therefore low persistence of the positive income shock. These heterogeneous results have important implications for how expectations shape economic behaviour.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 105080"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bayesian persuasion with fact-checking: An experimental investigation 贝叶斯说服与事实核查：一项实验调查
IF 2.4 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105114
Lucas Rentschler , Zeeshan Samad
{"title":"Bayesian persuasion with fact-checking: An experimental investigation","authors":"Lucas Rentschler ,&nbsp;Zeeshan Samad","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the ever-increasing accessibility of fact-checking, there is little empirical evidence on how it influences a person’s ability to persuade another. This paper experimentally investigates the impact of a fact-checking device that probabilistically flags false messages in a Bayesian persuasion framework. In theory, if fact-checking occurs with a sufficiently low probability, the sender can and should offset its effects by lying more frequently, rendering the device ineffective. However, our experiment contradicts this prediction. We find that senders do not lie any more frequently in the presence of fact-checking than in its absence, a behavior consistent with lying aversion. We also find that receivers’ actions are monotonic in their induced posterior, a behavior that resembles Bayesian rationality. Finally, we discuss how these results apply to a variety of real-world persuasive contexts such as litigation, lobbying, and disinformation dissemination.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 105114"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144879644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A natural experiment on earthquakes and risk preferences 关于地震和风险偏好的自然实验
IF 2.4 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105108
Michel Beine , Gary Charness , Arnaud Dupuy , Majlinda Joxhe
{"title":"A natural experiment on earthquakes and risk preferences","authors":"Michel Beine ,&nbsp;Gary Charness ,&nbsp;Arnaud Dupuy ,&nbsp;Majlinda Joxhe","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105108","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105108","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We conducted a survey and incentivized lab-in-the-field experiment in Tirana, Albania. Although the initial focus of our study was to examine whether and how risk preferences affect migration intentions, two large earthquakes that struck the Tirana area during our data collection transformed the project into a natural experiment. These events provided a rare opportunity to gather causal evidence – including pre-earthquake baseline data – on the impact of earthquakes on incentivized risk preferences. We find clear evidence that exposure to earthquakes increased risk aversion among affected individuals. Moreover, the second earthquake amplified the effect of the first, suggesting that such experiences have cumulative effects on risk preferences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 105108"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144830916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Predatory private governance 掠夺性私人治理
IF 2.4 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105122
Peter T. Leeson
{"title":"Predatory private governance","authors":"Peter T. Leeson","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105122","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105122","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economic analyses of private governance typically consider historical episodes where such governance successfully protected the property rights of the governed. This paper economically analyzes an episode where it did not: late Heian Japan. There, governance was supplied privately by competing landlord-<em>cum</em>-governance monopolists. Such a monopolist may be induced to respect the property rights of the governed by a credible threat of revolt or by the disciplinary logic of markets. The threat of revolt is credible, however, only if the governed are organized. And the logic of markets is disciplinary only if the territorial interests of governance monopolists are stable and the assets of the governed are mobile. Each of those conditions was violated in late Heian Japan, whose private governance monopolists thus often found it profitable to prey on the governed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 105122"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144842085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Towards a general model of creativity based on the theory of the adjacent possible 走向一个基于相邻可能理论的一般创造力模型
IF 2.4 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105121
Michael Araki
{"title":"Towards a general model of creativity based on the theory of the adjacent possible","authors":"Michael Araki","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105121","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105121","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces a General Model of Creativity (GMC) as an extension of the Theory of the Adjacent Possible (TAP) addressing a longstanding gap: the lack of an equation that formalizes a wide range of insights from creativity theory. The GMC draws on multiple strands of creativity literature, particularly the systems view of creativity (SVC), the blind-variation and selective-retention (BVSR) framework, and honing theory (HT), incorporating cognitive processes, field-level gatekeeping, and broader selective pressures into a TAP-like equation, and formalizing several processes that have remained largely narrative in the creativity literature. Alongside the equation, a graphical version building on Csikszentmihalyi’s SVC maps the creative cycle from cultural knowledge, through individual insight and field evaluation, to the integration of novelties back into the domain. To demonstrate the model’s explanatory power, the GMC is applied to simulate the well-documented phenomenon of multiple independent discoveries in science, thereby extending TAP’s reach to a key empirical regularity in creativity research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105121"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144780144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal banking regulation and monetary policy 最优银行监管和货币政策
IF 2.4 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105110
Tai-Wei Hu , Yiting Li , Yilei Liu
{"title":"Optimal banking regulation and monetary policy","authors":"Tai-Wei Hu ,&nbsp;Yiting Li ,&nbsp;Yilei Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105110","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105110","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In a money-search model with deposits as means of payment where banks are subject to limited commitment, we study optimal monetary policy in terms of interest on reserves and inflation, and optimal banking regulations with fiscal constraints on the central bank. The optimal design of banking regulations and monetary policy depends on the amount of productive assets used as collateral for bank deposit issuance and the fiscal requirement. In general, IOER can increase liquidity provision and hence enhance welfare, but it requires fiscal resources to do so, and an appropriate reserve requirement can increase both liquidity and fiscal revenue. This gives a novel channel to improve welfare through banking regulation. However, a positive nominal IOER can also be useful for fiscal purposes under relatively high inflation. For a given level of fiscal requirement, higher welfare is implemented with the consumer’s bargaining power less than one. As consumers hold more deposits for conducting trade, this may raise the tax base, enable less stringent banking regulations, and enhance welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105110"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144724486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The interactions of social norms about climate change: Science, institutions and economics 关于气候变化的社会规范的相互作用：科学、制度和经济学
IF 2.4 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105107
Antonio Cabrales , Manu García , David Ramos Muñoz , Angel Sánchez
{"title":"The interactions of social norms about climate change: Science, institutions and economics","authors":"Antonio Cabrales ,&nbsp;Manu García ,&nbsp;David Ramos Muñoz ,&nbsp;Angel Sánchez","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105107","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the evolution of interest in climate change among different actors within the population and how the interest of these actors affects one another. Our first contribution is to measure interest among the general public, the European Parliament, central banks, general interest science journals, and economics journals by creating a Climate Change Index (CCI) based on mentions of climate change in these domains. We also provide a game-theoretic network model of cross-influences between the actors in the economy. The model gives a prediction of the interactions between sectors related to the mutual interests embedded in the model parameters. We then estimate these parameters using a Vector Autoregression (VAR). The main results are that except for general interest science journals, the index for all other domains has started showing significant values only recently, and it tends to fluctuate considerably over time. In terms of influence, the European Parliament and the media affect one another, but the trend in science remains relatively independent of the others.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105107"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144724485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy across inflation regimes 通货膨胀制度下的货币政策
IF 2.4 2区 经济学
European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105109
Valeria Gargiulo , Christian Matthes , Katerina Petrova
{"title":"Monetary policy across inflation regimes","authors":"Valeria Gargiulo ,&nbsp;Christian Matthes ,&nbsp;Katerina Petrova","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105109","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105109","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year inflation exceeds 5.5%. Below this threshold, changes in monetary policy have a short-lived effect on prices, but no effect on the unemployment rate, giving a potential explanation for the recent “soft-landing” in the United States. Above this threshold, the effects of monetary policy surprises on both inflation and unemployment can be larger and longer lasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105109"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144724484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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