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From independence to interdependence: The global connectedness of central banks’ balance sheet total assets 从独立到相互依赖：央行资产负债表总资产的全球关联性
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103473
Roman Matousek , Stephanos Τ. Papadamou , Panayiotis G. Tzeremes , Nickolaos G. Tzeremes
{"title":"From independence to interdependence: The global connectedness of central banks’ balance sheet total assets","authors":"Roman Matousek ,&nbsp;Stephanos Τ. Papadamou ,&nbsp;Panayiotis G. Tzeremes ,&nbsp;Nickolaos G. Tzeremes","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103473","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103473","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the global spillover effects of central banks’ balance sheet expansions on a weekly basis from 2006 to 2023, using a quantile VAR framework and dynamic connectedness analysis across five major central banks [Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Canada (BoC), and Bank of Australia (RBA)], the relevant ten-year sovereign bonds, and the VIX index. The analysis reveals a pronounced U-shaped pattern in systemic connectedness, with highest spillovers during extreme market conditions (low and high quantiles) and lower connectedness in normal periods. Ten-year sovereign bonds emerge as the primary contributors of forecast error variance across all regimes, while central banks—particularly the Fed and BoE—act as net absorbers of spillovers especially during crisis periods. The tails show the most monetary policy synchrony, suggesting globally intertwined reactions under stress and idiosyncratic actions under calm. Structural break and heatmap analyses across the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Eurozone crisis, and COVID-19 confirm the latter. These findings underscore the need for policymakers to consider cross-border transmission effects and rethink the presumed domestic containment of unconventional monetary policy tools.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103473"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145579699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Yes! uncovered interest parity does hold in the long run 是的!长期来看，未覆盖的利率平价确实成立
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103455
Richard T. Baillie , George Kapetanios , Kun Ho Kim
{"title":"Yes! uncovered interest parity does hold in the long run","authors":"Richard T. Baillie ,&nbsp;George Kapetanios ,&nbsp;Kun Ho Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103455","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103455","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is clear evidence from many previous studies that UIP does not hold with monthly data. However, a recent study by Baillie, Diebold, Kapetanios, Kim and Mora (2025) advocated the “Durbin\" regression approach to modeling time series regressions. This paper extends the application of that approach and finds strong evidence that information contained in lagged spot and forward exchange rates indicates that UIP is valid over long horizons. This evidence is based on heavily traded 30 day forward markets and avoids dealing with long term bonds and HAC robust standard errors. The evidence is important in confirming the validity of the long-run international Fisher condition, which is a vital cornerstone of international finance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103455"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145475004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Taming the global factor zoo 驯服全球因素动物园
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103466
Jian Chen , Yufeng Han , Guohao Tang , Yifeng Zhu
{"title":"Taming the global factor zoo","authors":"Jian Chen ,&nbsp;Yufeng Han ,&nbsp;Guohao Tang ,&nbsp;Yifeng Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103466","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103466","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines monthly returns from over 48,120 stocks across 36 countries/regions, employing an iterative two-step LASSO methodology to identify key factors in global markets. The result is a novel global factor model that incorporates factors such as market dynamics, profit growth, quality, momentum, investment, size, and debt issuance. This model outperforms existing approaches by providing a superior explanation of global asset pricing anomalies and achieving lower average pricing errors. A distinguishing feature of our model is its efficacy in explicating anomalies in local markets, diverging from traditional models that typically confine their scope to local market dynamics. Overall, this research highlights the potential of machine learning-based frameworks in developing a more comprehensive and robust global factor model for international asset pricing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103466"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145579698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The path to currency internationalization: Insights from the Chinese renminbi 货币国际化之路：来自中国人民币的洞察
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103449
Minkyu Son
{"title":"The path to currency internationalization: Insights from the Chinese renminbi","authors":"Minkyu Son","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103449","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103449","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What matters for a currency to gain an international status? To explore this question, we examine the evolving role of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) in trade invoicing over 2003–2021 and the factors contributing to its heterogeneity using detailed trade data for Korea, China’s largest trading partner. China’s policy reform in 2009, permitting cross-border RMB settlement, boosted RMB invoicing in Korean exports particularly to China, but the US dollar’s existing dominance in trade with China impeded the expansion of RMB. Our study also finds that opening a direct FX market for RMB in 2014 further stimulated RMB usage in exports to non-Chinese destinations. This effect was more pronounced in destination countries with close trade ties or currency swap lines with China, and in exporting industries using more RMB-denominated inputs. These findings highlight the complementarity between a country’s economic fundamentals and government policies in internationalizing its currency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103449"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145475005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The lasting effect of yen-buying interventions: Two cases of Japanese FX interventions in 1997–98 and 2022 日元购买干预的持续影响：1997-98年和2022年日本外汇干预的两个案例
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103445
Taro Esaka , Takao Fujii
{"title":"The lasting effect of yen-buying interventions: Two cases of Japanese FX interventions in 1997–98 and 2022","authors":"Taro Esaka ,&nbsp;Takao Fujii","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103445","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103445","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses a synthetic control method (SCM) to estimate the lasting effect of yen-buying and dollar-selling interventions in two cases of Japanese foreign exchange (FX) interventions in 1997–98 and 2022. Our analysis using this method enables us to estimate the causal impact of FX intervention on yen-dollar rate for each intervention event by constructing the counterfactual for change in the yen-dollar rate as the optimal weighted average of changes in several hundred exchange rates that were not directly affected by Japanese intervention through a data-driven approach. In the recent case of Japanese interventions in 2022, we find that while the effect of the yen-buying intervention on September 22 was short-lived, the effect in the event of October 21 and 24 lasted for more than 10 business days after the intervention. In the case of yen-buying interventions during the Japanese financial crisis in 1997–98, while the effects of the single interventions in the events of December 17–19, 1997, and April 9 and 10, 1998, were short-lived, the effect of the coordinated intervention by the monetary authorities of Japan and the US on June 17, 1998, lasted more than 10 business days after the intervention. These findings are robust to employing a Ridge Augmented SCM and a synthetic difference-in-differences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103445"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145425170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting stock return: The role of idiosyncratic asymmetry risk 股票收益预测：特质不对称风险的作用
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103464
Yakun Liu , Yan Chen , Lei Zhang , Xi Deng
{"title":"Forecasting stock return: The role of idiosyncratic asymmetry risk","authors":"Yakun Liu ,&nbsp;Yan Chen ,&nbsp;Lei Zhang ,&nbsp;Xi Deng","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103464","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103464","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces a novel methodology for quantifying return asymmetry. Our investigation yields two principal findings. First, through nonparametric testing, we establish that our proposed measure demonstrates enhanced testing efficiency relative to conventional third-order skewness. Second, our analysis reveals that the proposed asymmetry metric serves as a robust predictor of cross-sectional equity returns. Consistent with theoretical predictions in the extant literature, we document a negative relationship between return asymmetry and subsequent stock performance. Our empirical evidence suggests that the cross-sectional pricing power of the asymmetric measure can be partially attributed to mispricing and arbitrage constraints. Moreover, we find that the asymmetric risk premium in the Chinese stock market is approximately twice the magnitude observed in the U.S. market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103464"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145475003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Riding the rate wave: Interest rate and run risks in euro area banks during the 2022–2023 monetary cycle 乘着利率浪潮：2022-2023年货币周期期间欧元区银行的利率和运行风险
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103444
Jonathan Rice , Giulia Maria Guerrini
{"title":"Riding the rate wave: Interest rate and run risks in euro area banks during the 2022–2023 monetary cycle","authors":"Jonathan Rice ,&nbsp;Giulia Maria Guerrini","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103444","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103444","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how the ECB’s 2022–2023 interest rate hikes affected euro area banks’ economic net worth and vulnerability to deposit runs. Drawing on granular, confidential data for 139 banks, we estimate each bank’s economic net worth and find that unrealised losses on loans and bonds averaged around 30 % of equity. By September 2023, roughly half of these losses had been offset by gains from the deposit franchise and interest rate swaps. We develop a theoretical framework linking banks’ economic net worth and deposit rate setting to depositor behaviour and run incentives. We demonstrate that banks with larger unrealised losses raised their deposit rates by less–a pattern we interpret as banks leveraging a more valuable deposit franchise to fund longer–duration assets. Although euro area banks as a whole avoided widespread runs, several institutions nonetheless carried substantial mark–to–market losses, suggesting latent fragilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103444"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145475006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impermanent loss in cryptocurrency 加密货币的暂时损失
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103476
Gang Chu , Michael Dowling , Xiao Li
{"title":"Impermanent loss in cryptocurrency","authors":"Gang Chu ,&nbsp;Michael Dowling ,&nbsp;Xiao Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103476","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103476","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Impermanent loss risk is a unique risk related to liquidity provision to cryptocurrency exchange pools in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols. To better understand the characteristics of this emergent risk, we first identify the determinants of impermanent loss risk across 1,715 liquidity pools traded on the two largest exchanges. We then explore how impermanent loss is priced in the cross-section of cryptocurrency liquidity pool expected returns. Through a series of portfolio analyses, we document a significantly positive cross-sectional relationship between impermanent loss risk and expected returns. Drawing on a liquidity-based hypothesis, we further demonstrate how the presence of impermanent loss risk impedes liquidity provision and accelerates liquidity demand. Collectively, our results provide strong evidence supporting the important role of impermanent loss risk in determining cryptocurrency liquidity pool returns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103476"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145579780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The risk and reward of investing 投资的风险和回报
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103453
Ronald Doeswijk, Laurens Swinkels
{"title":"The risk and reward of investing","authors":"Ronald Doeswijk,&nbsp;Laurens Swinkels","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103453","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103453","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the risks and rewards of investing by constructing a comprehensive market portfolio valued at $150 trillion in global assets and spanning 1970–2022 at a monthly frequency. The monthly frequency allows for a more accurate estimate of investment risks compared to previous studies. Although the Sharpe ratio of the global market portfolio is not much higher than that of equities, it is much more stable over time. In addition, the drawdowns of the global market portfolio are less deep and shorter. When the market portfolio is expressed in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, risks of investing appear larger.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103453"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145425215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global monetary policy spillovers: conference summary 全球货币政策溢出效应：会议摘要
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103454
Matthieu Bussière , Guillaume Horny , Mark M. Spiegel
{"title":"Global monetary policy spillovers: conference summary","authors":"Matthieu Bussière ,&nbsp;Guillaume Horny ,&nbsp;Mark M. Spiegel","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103454","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103454","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Monetary policy operates through several channels, including through the external sector. As a result, domestic monetary policy decisions may have significant global spillover effects, with far reaching macroeconomic and financial stability considerations. This article outlines key lessons from the papers presented during the conference.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103454"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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