{"title":"Market mechanisms for energy transition: Fossil energy price shocks and irrational renewable energy financing","authors":"Siquan Wang , Anna Min Du , Boqiang Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103251","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103251","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China is taking a leading role in the renewable energy industry and is dedicated to promoting the market-based operation mechanism of the energy transition. Nearly all media attribute it to industrial policies; however, this is insufficient to explain the periodic overcapacity risk behind the rapid development − neglecting the market irrationality behind the prosperity and failing to provide further guidance for the proactive government. Based on the micro-level evidence of enterprise business data, this study explores the market feedback mechanism between renewable energy business expansion and financing under the fossil energy price shocks to disclose the market irrationality mechanism triggered by coal, a key inducement. We first establish an empirical framework to explore the relationship, which remains stable under instrumental variable regression and dual-factor moderating effect with extreme weather damage. Furthermore, we compare the mechanisms of China and the United States to furnish more empirical evidence. The results demonstrate that China’s renewable energy financing displays irrationality in signal transmission and market financing feedback, as well as the possible presence of market overreaction by analyzing the financing feedback during the occurrence and disappearance of fossil energy price shocks. The findings offer further policy operability for the theory of active government.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103251"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143104301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Climate change and U.S. Corporate bond market activity: A machine learning approach","authors":"Charilaos Mertzanis , Ilias Kampouris , Aristeidis Samitas","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103259","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103259","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the predictive relationship between climate change indexes and international corporate debt market volumes, focusing on forecasting domestic and foreign net purchases of U.S. corporate bonds, using thirty machine learning models across different families of algorithms. Among these, Gaussian Process Regression models demonstrated superior accuracy in capturing complex patterns, highlighting the significance of climate change indexes as predictors of corporate bond market behaviors. NARX models and decision trees also performed well. However, machine learning predictive accuracy broadly outperforms traditional estimation methods, but varies across different regional markets and investor types. The findings underscore the need for integrating climate risk into financial analysis, advocating for sophisticated predictive models to better manage climate-related financial risks. These insights have significant implications for asset managers, issuers, and regulators, promoting a more holistic approach to managing these risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103259"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Media-based climate risks and international corporate bond market","authors":"Ramzi Benkraiem , Nebojsa Dimic , Vanja Piljak , Laurens Swinkels , Milos Vulanovic","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of the media-based climate risks, grouped into physical and transition risk categories, on the international corporate bond market in the period from 2012 to 2022. We analyze the following aspects: (i) market development (developed versus emerging markets); (ii) credit quality (investment grade versus high yield bonds), (iii) industry (climate-sensitive versus non-sensitive industries), and (iv) maturity (short versus long term bonds). We find that transition risk is reflected in the global corporate bond market, but not in the emerging corporate bond market segment. Furthermore, transition risk has a material impact only on the investment grade bonds in the global corporate bond market. The industry analysis reveals that there are no consistent significant differences between climate-sensitive and climate-insensitive industries. Maturity analysis indicates that transition risk is reflected in global corporate bond market returns for both short and long terms, but this effect is less pronounced in emerging markets. Physical risk is not systematically reflected in international corporate bond returns. The subsample analysis shows higher importance of transition climate risk following the Paris Agreement in December 2015.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103260"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143104297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Caiquan Bai , Huimin Wang , Qihang Xue , Yaping Zhao
{"title":"Financial crime and corporate social responsibility: Evidence from China","authors":"Caiquan Bai , Huimin Wang , Qihang Xue , Yaping Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103258","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103258","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study uses criminal first-instance judgments of financial crimes published by China Judgments Online to construct an index of a city’s financial crime rate, focusing on the impact of financial crimes on corporate social responsibility (CSR). The higher the financial crime rate in a city where the firm is located is, the worse the firm’s CSR performance. The main reason for this phenomenon is that a higher city financial crime rate increases information asymmetry, intensifies financing constraints, and depresses investor sentiment. In addition, crimes that disrupt the management order of financial bills, deposits, and loans, as well as moderately severe financial crimes, have the greatest economic effects on CSR; internal and external corporate pressures play an important moderating role, reinforcing the impact of financial crime; and financial crime can damage corporate reputation through its impact on CSR.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103258"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Geopolitical risk and U.S. foreign portfolio investment: A tale of advanced and emerging markets","authors":"Sangyup Choi , Jiri Havel","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103253","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103253","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how U.S. portfolio investors react to the geopolitical risk in destination countries. First, we uncover significant heterogeneity between advanced and emerging market destinations: U.S. investment in foreign bonds and equities decreases only in response to heightened geopolitical risk in emerging markets, not in advanced markets. Second, we identify poor institutional quality and, to a lesser extent, closed capital markets in emerging market economies as the primary driver behind the larger sensitivity of portfolio investment to geopolitical risk. Third, we find a contagion effect that U.S. portfolio investment declines significantly in response to the heightened geopolitical risk in nearby countries even after controlling for the risk in the destination country. This contagion effect is confined to emerging markets, further highlighting the difference between advanced and emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103253"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Measuring systemic risk in Asian foreign exchange markets” [J. Int. Money Financ. 146 (2024) 103135]","authors":"Yanghan Chen , Juan Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103249","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103249","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103249"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143104295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Misaligned currencies and economic growth: The role of global value chains","authors":"Shiu-Sheng Chen , Yao-Ting Huang , Tzu-Yu Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103252","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103252","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the impact of global value chain (GVC) participation on the relationship between real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth. Employing a panel framework encompassing 183 countries from 1990 to 2019, we find that an undervalued real exchange rate is associated with higher economic growth. However, our analysis also reveals that increased GVC participation diminishes the positive effect of undervaluation on economic growth with moderate statistical significance. Consequently, the potential competitiveness gains from an undervalued currency might be offset by deeper integration into global production networks. It is worth noting that the empirical findings are most prominent for advanced economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103252"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143104299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Climate risk and corporate debt decision","authors":"Chuyu Jiang , Yating Li , Xuan Zhang , Yang Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103261","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103261","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of climate risk on firms’ debt decisions from a demand-side perspective in the Chinese market. Using data from Chinese listed companies spanning 2007 to 2022, we examine how physical climate risk influences firms’ leverage decisions. The key findings are as follows: (1) Physical climate risk is negatively associated with firms’ leverage ratios, and this relationship holds across a series of robustness checks; (2) Firm-level climate risk awareness and the geographical allocation of business activities in regions with higher climate risk exposure amplify this effect; (3) Physical climate risk reduces leverage ratios by increasing corporate financing constraints and lowering future profitability; (4) The impact is more pronounced among firms in highly competitive industries, non-knowledge-intensive sectors, and those located in economically underdeveloped regions of China; (5) Firms with greater exposure to climate risk, facilitated by lower leverage ratios, tend to demonstrate stronger sustainable development performance, prioritizing green innovation over traditional innovation. Overall, our findings provide robust empirical evidence for firms to develop sustainability strategies in response to potential climate risks. This underscores the importance of integrating climate considerations into corporate operations, particularly in the context of debt decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103261"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143104298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"CEOS’ climate risk perception bias and corporate debt structure","authors":"Shupei Huang , Xinya Wang , Yi Xue , Xinzhi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103254","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103254","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate risk, the biggest challenge faced by the human society, poses great complexities and difficulties to the corporate operations. Unlike previous studies focus on either the objective level of climate risks or the subjective perception for such risk, we quantify the difference between the objective level and subjective perception of climate risk and define as CEOs’ climate risk perception bias, and further explore the impact of the bias on the corporate debt structure. The empirical results reveal several key findings. First, the baseline regression results indicate that an increase in CEOs’ climate risk perception bias is positively associated with debt concentration, while simultaneously leading to a reduction in the number of debt instruments. Robustness checks confirm the stability of these findings across various model specifications and sample sets, enhancing the reliability of the observed relationships. Additionally, heterogeneity tests show that the significant effects of climate risk perception bias on debt structure are primarily present in firms with a proper understanding of climate risks, while those that underestimate or overstate such risks display non-significant changes. Mechanistically, our analysis highlights that CEOs’ climate risk perception bias significantly reduce R&D expenditures, reflecting a trade-off between immediate financial stability and long-term innovation potential. Furthermore, heightened perception biases correlate with decreased risk tolerance and increased financial constraints, limiting firms’ flexibility in adapting to changing market conditions. These findings emphasize the need for accurate climate risk assessments to inform corporate financial strategies. Policymakers should facilitate access to diverse financing options to help companies manage climate-related uncertainties while maintaining financial flexibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103254"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143104300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does extreme climate exacerbate the risk spillover in green finance markets? evidence from a multi-horizon investment perspective","authors":"Qichang Xie , Ruize Gong , Lei Yin , Xin Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103262","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103262","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Green finance is playing an increasingly important role in building an innovative financial system. However, faced with the growing frequency of extreme weather and external shocks, the stable operation of the green finance market is under pressure and challenge. Given the high-dimensional nature and the variation of financial risk contagion across different time scales, this paper introduces the HD-TVPVAR-BK (high-dimensional time-varying frequency domain) spillover index model to analyze the risk spillover among major financial institutions within China’s green finance market under different investment horizons. Moreover, a GARCH-MIDAS-EC mixed-frequency model is constructed to explore the multi-horizon driving impact of extreme climate on the risk spillover of the green finance market. The results show that short-term risk spillovers are the main contributors to risk contagion among financial institutions in the green finance market, far exceeding the risk spillover in the long term, and the risk spillover in the short-term is more significant in the face of external shocks, indicating a stronger immediate market response to exogenous events. Extreme weather is an important catalyst exacerbating risk spillover in the green finance market, with a more prominent impact on short-term investment horizons. Different extreme climate conditions have varying impacts on risk spillovers in the green finance market, with the long-term effects of extreme precipitation being more profound compared to extreme low temperatures and high temperatures. The results of this paper reveal for the first time the impact of different climatic conditions on cross-term risk contagion in the green finance market, providing new evidence for the effective prevention of extreme weather shocks to the financial market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103262"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}