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Changes in corporate employment under climate risk 气候风险下企业就业的变化
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103368
Wanli Li , Junrui Chen , Kaibin Yuan
{"title":"Changes in corporate employment under climate risk","authors":"Wanli Li ,&nbsp;Junrui Chen ,&nbsp;Kaibin Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103368","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103368","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using observation data from the meteorological station closest to firms among 928 stations across mainland China, we construct firm-level physical climate risk indicators. We find that climate risks lead firms to tighten employment, which is more pronounced in labor-intensive firms, non-state-owned firms, firms with higher tax burdens, and regions with higher minimum wage standard. Mechanism tests indicate that climate risks reduce corporate employment by shrinking production scales, deteriorating business performance, and intensifying financing frictions. Furthermore, government efforts to build climate-resilient cities, invest in flood control and implement corporate tax reductions, along with the development of the insurance industry, can alleviate the adverse effects of climate risks on local firms’ employment. Firms can also address climate risks by enhancing financial flexibility and organizational resilience. Additionally, firms may also resort to wage reductions in response to climate risks, but whether they choose wage reductions or cutting employment depends on the flexibility to lower their existing wage levels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103368"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144147982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A news-based macro uncertainty index for Italy 意大利基于新闻的宏观不确定性指数
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103371
Michele Catalano , Lorenzo Forni
{"title":"A news-based macro uncertainty index for Italy","authors":"Michele Catalano ,&nbsp;Lorenzo Forni","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103371","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103371","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we introduce an innovative high-frequency uncertainty index derived from an extensive dataset of Italian news sources. Our index methodically sorts news items by their macroeconomic significance and underlying sentiment. We focus on a period of analysis, from July 2017 to July 2021, characterized by pronounced uncertainties, notably the emergence of the 5 Star-Lega government coalition in 2018, which introduced significant political unpredictability, and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We uncover a significant correlation between our newly developed uncertainty index and measures of sovereign risk (such as the BTP-Bund spread) during the tenure of the 5 Star-Lega government. However, this correlation diminishes following the initiation of the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program, underscoring the substantial influence of political uncertainty on sovereign risk before the ECB’s intervention. The index is applied to dissect the Italian macroeconomic business cycle using a mixed-frequency model that integrates both financial and real economy indicators. Additionally, the study presents a nonlinear model leveraging the index to assess its predictive power in forecasting the Italian business cycle in recent years. The findings provide substantial evidence of the index’s predictive capabilities, highlighting its effectiveness in foreseeing shifts in the business cycle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103371"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144166954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Discouraged Borrowers and Sentimental Shocks 气馁的借款者和情感冲击
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103359
Dimitris Anastasiou , Fotios Pasiouras , Anastasios Rizos , Artemis Stratopoulou
{"title":"Discouraged Borrowers and Sentimental Shocks","authors":"Dimitris Anastasiou ,&nbsp;Fotios Pasiouras ,&nbsp;Anastasios Rizos ,&nbsp;Artemis Stratopoulou","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103359","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103359","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We quantify, for the first time in the literature, the three channels affecting discouraged bank borrowers through pessimistic sentimental shocks. While the existence of discouraged borrowers is not a new phenomenon, our research puts forward an analytical approach that places sentiment-driven shocks at the forefront of understanding these behaviors. Using a sample of around 90,000 firm-level observations from European SMEs, we find that a higher level of pessimistic sentimental shocks from credit demand, credit supply, and, to some extent, inflation is positively related to the probability of firms being discouraged. These results are, in general, robust to endogeneity, selection bias, and alternative specifications. Our findings unveil the profound impact of sentiment-driven factors on the borrowing behavior of businesses and have practical implications for both policymakers and financial institutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103359"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144098245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cryptocurrencies in emerging markets: A stablecoin solution? 新兴市场的加密货币：稳定币的解决方案？
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103344
David Murakami , Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj
{"title":"Cryptocurrencies in emerging markets: A stablecoin solution?","authors":"David Murakami ,&nbsp;Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103344","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103344","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We rationalize cryptocurrency adoption in a small open economy model. We show that digital dollarization, where stablecoins pegged to the USD are used for transactions, can improve social welfare. In contrast, the adoption of volatile cryptocurrencies, such as El Salvador’s 2021 decision to make Bitcoin legal tender, results in welfare losses. This outcome aligns with the observed low take-up of Bitcoin as legal tender. The welfare benefits of digital dollarization increase with the magnitude of macroeconomic shocks, providing motivation for the growing use of stablecoins in emerging markets as a safeguard against high inflation and macroeconomic instability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 103344"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144072565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Divine dividends: How religious traditions shape corporate payout policies 神圣的股息：宗教传统如何影响公司的派息政策
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103357
Shixian Ling , Mengdi Jia , Zhangxin (Frank) Liu
{"title":"Divine dividends: How religious traditions shape corporate payout policies","authors":"Shixian Ling ,&nbsp;Mengdi Jia ,&nbsp;Zhangxin (Frank) Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103357","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103357","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of religious traditions on corporate dividend policies using Chinese A-share firms from 2009 to 2023. Firms in regions with stronger Buddhist and Taoist influence are more likely to pay dividends and exhibit higher payout ratios, particularly non-state-owned enterprises, where religion serves as an alternative governance mechanism. Buddhism has a stronger effect than Taoism, reflecting doctrinal differences in ethical and financial outlooks. Mechanism tests suggest that religious traditions enhance corporate social responsibility and investor protection, reinforcing dividend commitments. Additional analyses show that religiosity fosters dividend smoothing. Our results, robust to alternative measures and instrumental variable analyses, highlight the role of informal institutions in shaping corporate financial decisions in transitional economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 103357"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143947137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic policy uncertainty and foreign exchange market implied volatility: A complex partial wavelet coherence approach 经济政策不确定性与外汇市场隐含波动率：一个复杂的部分小波相干方法
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103356
Lu Yang
{"title":"Economic policy uncertainty and foreign exchange market implied volatility: A complex partial wavelet coherence approach","authors":"Lu Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103356","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103356","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the interdependence between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and foreign exchange implied volatility (FXV) across advanced, European, and emerging (BRICS) markets since 2000 by using a complex partial wavelet coherence approach. The findings indicate that both domestic and US EPUs directly enhance the implied volatility of several currencies across different timescales. In general, the interdependence between EPU and FXV is weak at short-term scales but strengthens over longer timescales. In developed and European markets, substantial evidence indicates that both domestic and US EPUs elevate currency implied volatility, particularly at long-term scales and during periods of extreme market conditions. Among BRICS countries, China alone shows similar patterns. These results imply that EPU can adversely impact the economic performance of more financially integrated developed economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 103356"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143935754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The trend effect of foreign exchange intervention 外汇干预的趋势效应
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103355
Rasmus Fatum , Yohei Yamamoto , Binwei Chen
{"title":"The trend effect of foreign exchange intervention","authors":"Rasmus Fatum ,&nbsp;Yohei Yamamoto ,&nbsp;Binwei Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103355","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103355","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The 2022 and the 2010–2011 Bank of Japan interventions provide an opportunity for investigating whether unusually large-scale and infrequent interventions are capable of generating trend effects. To this end, we estimate the counterfactual exchange rate and analyze structural changes in the level and the trend of the gap sequence between actual and counterfactual exchange rates. Our results show that the trend of the gap sequence reversed in the desired direction around the intervention dates, indicating that the intervention policy instrument is potentially powerful enough to generate long-term trend effects. This is an important insight not previously found in the intervention literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 103355"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Signal in the noise: Trump tweets and the currency market 噪音中的信号：特朗普的推文和外汇市场
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103343
Ilias Filippou , Arie E. Gozluklu , My T. Nguyen , Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj
{"title":"Signal in the noise: Trump tweets and the currency market","authors":"Ilias Filippou ,&nbsp;Arie E. Gozluklu ,&nbsp;My T. Nguyen ,&nbsp;Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103343","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103343","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we conduct a textual analysis of Trump tweets. Our method extracts the signal from the noise, by identifying the subset of tweets that contain information on macroeconomic policy or trade content. Informative tweets result in a USD appreciation and a decline in intraday volatility, reflecting Trump’s optimistic views on the U.S. economy. These effects are robust to controlling for macroeconomic announcements. We rationalize our findings within a model of Bayesian traders that interpret Trump tweets as a public signal in the FX market. Currency returns are driven by a bias between the public signal and speculators’ expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 103343"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143924365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Concentrated customers: A blessing or a curse for tunneling prevention? 客户集中：防隧道是福还是祸？
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103354
Xianhang Qian, Yewei Liu, Xinyu Li
{"title":"Concentrated customers: A blessing or a curse for tunneling prevention?","authors":"Xianhang Qian,&nbsp;Yewei Liu,&nbsp;Xinyu Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103354","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103354","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a sample of Chinese listed firms, this paper investigates the impact of customer concentration on controlling shareholders’ tunneling. Our findings reveal that firms with concentrated customer bases engage in high levels of tunneling activities. Further analysis indicates that customer concentration increases firms’ excess cash holdings and information opacity, thereby facilitating tunneling. This effect is more pronounced in firms with limited market power, firms operating in durable goods industries, firms located in cities with weak legal environments, and firms with less exposure to Confucian culture. Additionally, we observe that the heightened tunneling accompanied by customer concentration leads to abnormal executive compensation, exacerbated financial distress, and ultimately, a reduction in firm value. Overall, our study suggests that, contrary to serving as a monitoring force, concentrated customers actually facilitate controlling shareholders’ tunneling practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 103354"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143903473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: A panel analysis of the Euro Area 不同财政制度下的货币政策意外冲击：欧元区专家小组 分析
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103341
Antonio Afonso , José Alves , Serena Ionta
{"title":"Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: A panel analysis of the Euro Area","authors":"Antonio Afonso ,&nbsp;José Alves ,&nbsp;Serena Ionta","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103341","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103341","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of surprise shocks on real output and price levels, conditioned on different fiscal stances, using quarterly data from 2001Q4 to 2021Q4 for 19 Euro Area countries. Employing local projection methods, we find that the influence of monetary shocks depends on each country’s fiscal position. Specifically, while high debt amplifies monetary policy’s contractionary effect on output, the “Ricardian\" nature of fiscal policy plays a pivotal role in price responses. Notably, in the high-debt and low-sustainability regime, we observe “fiscal inflation\" where monetary tightening raises prices instead of containing them. Consistent with the Fiscal Theory of Price Level, this occurs when agents anticipate insufficient fiscal adjustments to offset the debt burden, creating inflationary pressures. Our study introduces a novel approach by integrating Bohn’s fiscal reaction function within a time-varying framework and analyzing interactions between fiscal stances and monetary shocks in the Euro Area. These findings carry significant policy implications, suggesting monetary authorities should consider fiscal conditions when implementing policy measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 103341"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143899730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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