Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献

Central bank communication of uncertainty 央行沟通的不确定性

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103385

Pietro Fadda , Rayane Hanifi , Klodiana Istrefi , Adrian Penalver

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric inflation target credibility 不对称通胀目标可信度

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103382

Winnie Coleman , Dieter Nautz

引用次数: 0

Corporate investment decisions amid climate risks: Relocate or stay? 气候风险下的企业投资决策：搬迁还是留下来？

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103388

Yi-Shuai Ren , Tony Klein , Yong Jiang

引用次数: 0

Who pays the greenium and why? A decomposition 谁支付这些费用，为什么？分解

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103381

Daniel Fricke, Christoph Meinerding

引用次数: 0

Trends and key determinants of firm-level integration 企业整合的趋势和关键决定因素

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103376

Thomas Conlon, John Cotter, Ioannis Ropotos

引用次数: 0

Optimal credit development regimes and impact of foreign capital flows 最优信贷发展制度和外国资本流动的影响

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103383

François D’Assises Babou Bationo

{"title":"Optimal credit development regimes and impact of foreign capital flows","authors":"François D’Assises Babou Bationo","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103383","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate optimal credit development and examine the role of foreign capital flows. We use data from 87 countries to estimate plausible econometric models. We find evidence of four existing credit development regimes. We show the existence of a <em>growth-enhancing credit development regime</em> where any credit allocation to the economy promotes economic growth. We also use disaggregated foreign capital flows to investigate the impact of these capital flows on credit development regimes. We find that the impact of foreign capital flows depends on the type of foreign capital flows, the credit development regime and the level of countries’ economic development. Portfolio debt inflows are mainly associated with a moderate credit development regime. However, portfolio equity inflows and other debt inflows are mainly associated with a high credit development regime. We argue that, in their credit allocation behavior, banks tend to strategically use portfolio debt inflows in a moderate credit development regime, and portfolio equity inflows and other debt inflows (not in portfolio debt) in a high credit development regime. Finally, we study credit development regimes around the start of financial crises. We find that the second credit development regime—which is strongly associated with economic growth—is not associated with future financial crises. We call this regime <em>the optimal credit development regime</em>. We also find that the third credit development regime—which still has a positive impact on economic growth—can lead to financial crises two years later. We call this regime <em>the arbitrage credit development regime</em>. These results provide a new perspective on credit development in an environment of international economic and financial integration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103383"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fiscal spillovers through informal financial channels 通过非正式金融渠道的财政溢出效应

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103378

Austin Kennedy

引用次数: 0

When austerity pays off: fiscal consolidations and public sector efficiency in emerging markets 当紧缩取得成效时：新兴市场的财政整顿和公共部门效率

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103380

José Alves , João Tovar Jalles , Lucas Menescal

{"title":"When austerity pays off: fiscal consolidations and public sector efficiency in emerging markets","authors":"José Alves , João Tovar Jalles , Lucas Menescal","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103380","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103380","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the impact of fiscal consolidations on public sector efficiency in emerging market economies. We examine how efforts to reduce government deficits and debt influence the efficiency of public sector operations. Using the local projections method on a panel of 41 emerging markets from 1997 to 2019, we estimate the dynamic effects of consolidation shocks. Results indicate that expenditure-based consolidations improve public sector efficiency, especially when consolidations are large, occur during downturns, or when initial debt levels are high. Tax-based consolidations show no significant impact. These findings suggest that well-structured expenditure cuts can enhance operational efficiency, making fiscal adjustments more effective. Our paper contributes to the literature on fiscal policy by highlighting the role of consolidation composition in shaping efficiency outcomes. The results provide valuable insights for policymakers designing fiscal strategies in emerging economies, balancing fiscal sustainability with efficient public service delivery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103380"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144280455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Markov-switching dynamic factor framework for dating global economic cycles 预测全球经济周期的马尔可夫转换动态因子框架

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103377

Arabinda Basistha

{"title":"A Markov-switching dynamic factor framework for dating global economic cycles","authors":"Arabinda Basistha","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103377","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103377","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An important issue in identifying global recessions is the limited availability of output data at the quarterly and monthly frequencies over longer time horizons. A related issue is the heterogeneity in evidence about specific recessionary episodes. We utilize the context that commodity prices are determined in the global markets, and four base metals have flexible nominal prices at the monthly frequency from the 1960s. We use the base metal prices to supplement the information about the global economy in the GDP data of 32 countries and the World Industrial Production index. We estimate the quarterly episodes of global recessions from the 1960s using extended Markov-switching dynamic factor models with multiple indicators. We further adapt the quarterly models to a mixed-frequency Markov-switching dynamic factor model to estimate the monthly episodes. Our estimates show eight episodes of global recessions at the quarterly frequency. Monthly estimates also capture the eight quarterly episodes of global recessions. The results are robust to several model and data sensitivity analyses. Regressions using 32 countries show reductions in GDP growth for all countries during the global recession episodes. Further analysis shows that the four global recessions that are common with other studies are deeper and more widespread recessions than the other four downturns. The analysis highlights heterogeneity in the size and the spread of global recessions while providing empirical evidence in favor of four specific recessions with mixed support in the past literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103377"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144254293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The influence of maritime freight cost tail risk on publicly traded industrial and transport companies 海运成本尾部风险对上市工业和运输公司的影响

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103358

Erdinc Akyildirim , Shaen Corbet , Michael Ryan , Abhishek Mukherjee

{"title":"The influence of maritime freight cost tail risk on publicly traded industrial and transport companies","authors":"Erdinc Akyildirim , Shaen Corbet , Michael Ryan , Abhishek Mukherjee","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103358","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103358","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the influence of maritime freight cost tail risk events on stock market prices of industrial and transport-related firms. Our findings reveal a significant asymmetry: extreme negative movements in these indices have a disproportionately large adverse impact on stock returns compared to extreme positive movements. As these indices serve as barometers of global economic health, sharp declines signal contractions in global demand, fuelling investor apprehension. These concerns outweigh the potential benefits of lower input costs for most firms. We also uncover substantial heterogeneity among stock responses. Notably, owing to their perceived higher risk, smaller firms and those with ESG controversies are more severely impacted by these negative tail-risk events. Further, we document that strong ESG commitments are sometimes beneficial during negative tail risk events, but not always. These mixed findings suggest that the effects of ESG commitments during tail risk events operate through multiple channels, and these impacts may vary depending on firm characteristics and the nature of the ESG activity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 103358"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144229884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0