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Concentrated customers: A blessing or a curse for tunneling prevention? 客户集中：防隧道是福还是祸？
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103354
Xianhang Qian, Yewei Liu, Xinyu Li
{"title":"Concentrated customers: A blessing or a curse for tunneling prevention?","authors":"Xianhang Qian,&nbsp;Yewei Liu,&nbsp;Xinyu Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103354","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103354","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a sample of Chinese listed firms, this paper investigates the impact of customer concentration on controlling shareholders’ tunneling. Our findings reveal that firms with concentrated customer bases engage in high levels of tunneling activities. Further analysis indicates that customer concentration increases firms’ excess cash holdings and information opacity, thereby facilitating tunneling. This effect is more pronounced in firms with limited market power, firms operating in durable goods industries, firms located in cities with weak legal environments, and firms with less exposure to Confucian culture. Additionally, we observe that the heightened tunneling accompanied by customer concentration leads to abnormal executive compensation, exacerbated financial distress, and ultimately, a reduction in firm value. Overall, our study suggests that, contrary to serving as a monitoring force, concentrated customers actually facilitate controlling shareholders’ tunneling practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 103354"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143903473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: A panel analysis of the Euro Area 不同财政制度下的货币政策意外冲击：欧元区专家小组 分析
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103341
Antonio Afonso , José Alves , Serena Ionta
{"title":"Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: A panel analysis of the Euro Area","authors":"Antonio Afonso ,&nbsp;José Alves ,&nbsp;Serena Ionta","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103341","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103341","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of surprise shocks on real output and price levels, conditioned on different fiscal stances, using quarterly data from 2001Q4 to 2021Q4 for 19 Euro Area countries. Employing local projection methods, we find that the influence of monetary shocks depends on each country’s fiscal position. Specifically, while high debt amplifies monetary policy’s contractionary effect on output, the “Ricardian\" nature of fiscal policy plays a pivotal role in price responses. Notably, in the high-debt and low-sustainability regime, we observe “fiscal inflation\" where monetary tightening raises prices instead of containing them. Consistent with the Fiscal Theory of Price Level, this occurs when agents anticipate insufficient fiscal adjustments to offset the debt burden, creating inflationary pressures. Our study introduces a novel approach by integrating Bohn’s fiscal reaction function within a time-varying framework and analyzing interactions between fiscal stances and monetary shocks in the Euro Area. These findings carry significant policy implications, suggesting monetary authorities should consider fiscal conditions when implementing policy measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 103341"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143899730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate risks and economic activity in France: Evidence from media coverage 法国的气候风险和经济活动：来自媒体报道的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103340
Oussama Houari , Hamza Bennani , Quentin Bro de Comères
{"title":"Climate risks and economic activity in France: Evidence from media coverage","authors":"Oussama Houari ,&nbsp;Hamza Bennani ,&nbsp;Quentin Bro de Comères","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103340","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103340","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of climate risks on economic activity in France. Using natural language processing methods on three major French newspapers (<em>Le Monde</em>, <em>Les Echos</em>, and <em>Le Figaro</em>) from 2000 to 2023, we construct a measure of climate risks that we disentangle into physical and transition-risk components. Our findings highlight several transmission channels through which climate risks affect the economy: the business cycle channel, the precautionary savings channel, the inflation channel, and the banking/credit channel. Moreover, while we document the existence of heterogeneous responses to our measures of physical and transition risks, we find that the tone of media coverage of climate risks matters beyond the frequency of published articles. These results remain robust to newspapers’ political slant and ruling political parties’ orientation. Finally, the impact of climate risks also depends on the stringency of environmental policies, with more lenient policies leading to a stronger sensitivity of our economic and financial variables to the media-related climate risk index.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 103340"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks 全球金融周期与宏观经济尾部风险
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103342
Johannes Beutel , Lorenz Emter , Norbert Metiu , Esteban Prieto , Yves Schüler
{"title":"The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks","authors":"Johannes Beutel ,&nbsp;Lorenz Emter ,&nbsp;Norbert Metiu ,&nbsp;Esteban Prieto ,&nbsp;Yves Schüler","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103342","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103342","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the link between the global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks using quantile vector autoregressions. Contractionary shocks to financial conditions and monetary policy in the United States cause elevated downside risks to growth around the world. By tightening financial conditions globally, these shocks affect the left tail of the conditional output growth distribution more strongly than the center of the distribution. This effect is particularly pronounced for countries with less flexible exchange rate arrangements, higher foreign currency exposures, and higher levels of private sector leverage, suggesting that exchange rate policies and macroprudential policies can mitigate downside risks to growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 103342"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143869168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From depegs to jumps: The role of stablecoin instabilities in crypto market dynamics 从深度到跳跃：稳定币不稳定性在加密市场动态中的作用
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103339
Baptiste Perez Riaza, Jean-Yves Gnabo
{"title":"From depegs to jumps: The role of stablecoin instabilities in crypto market dynamics","authors":"Baptiste Perez Riaza,&nbsp;Jean-Yves Gnabo","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103339","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103339","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study shows that, contrary to their intended purpose of stabilizing the crypto-asset ecosystem, stablecoins can become a significant source of market destabilization. While stablecoins like Tether (USDT) were designed to facilitate stable digital transactions and mitigate volatility in crypto portfolios, instances of depegging, where the stablecoin’s value deviates from its target, have introduced new risks. Using high-frequency 5-min price data across 70 non-stable crypto-assets, we show that stablecoin depegging events significantly increase the likelihood of abrupt price jumps in non-stable crypto-assets. Within the first 5 min following a depegging event, the probability of price jumps in the BTC/USD pair increases nearly fivefold compared to normal conditions under our most conservative estimates, while the probability of cojumps rises by a factor of 6.5. Our results also reveal that these jumps tend to be of greater magnitude than those typically observed. These findings underscore the destabilizing role stablecoin depegging can play in the broader crypto market, challenging the assumption that stablecoins inherently contribute to market stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 103339"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143854729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Doubling down: The synergy of CCyB release and monetary policy easing 加倍下注：释放商业银行和放松货币政策的协同作用
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103330
Cristina Jude , Grégory Levieuge
{"title":"Doubling down: The synergy of CCyB release and monetary policy easing","authors":"Cristina Jude ,&nbsp;Grégory Levieuge","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103330","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103330","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At the height of the COVID-19 crisis, many countries have reduced their countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and cut key policy rates. We exploit this quasi-natural experiment to gauge the combined effects of these two policies on bank lending rates (BLRs). First, we theoretically show that the joint action of CCyB release and monetary policy easing lowers BLRs by more than the sum of their individual effects. We then empirically confirm this synergy by a difference-in-difference analysis. Notably, for one percentage point release of the CCyB, corporate BLRs decreased by around 11 basis points more compared to countries without CCyB relief. The lower the policy rate, the greater this effect, suggesting that the CCyB provided additional room for maneuver to monetary policy. In addition, releasing the CCyB has acted as a catalyst for a better transmission of policy rate cuts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 103330"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143817063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Natural disasters and financial stress: can macroprudential regulation tame green swans? 自然灾害和金融压力：宏观审慎监管能驯服绿天鹅吗？
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103325
Pauline Avril , Grégory Levieuge , Camelia Turcu
{"title":"Natural disasters and financial stress: can macroprudential regulation tame green swans?","authors":"Pauline Avril ,&nbsp;Grégory Levieuge ,&nbsp;Camelia Turcu","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103325","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103325","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We empirically investigate the impact of natural disasters on the external finance premium (EFP), conditional on the rigorously implemented macroprudential regulation at the national level. Natural disaster intensity is measured using a unique set of geophysical indicators for a sample of 88 countries over the period 1996–2016. Using local projections, we show that the EFP rises significantly following storms when macroprudential regulation is lax, with this adverse financial impact increasing over time. By contrast, a strictly enforced macroprudential framework, especially one based on bank-oriented instruments, enhances systemic resilience and prevents financing conditions from tightening nationwide; in some cases, the EFP may even decline, particularly in middle-income countries and in response to extreme events. Finally, macroprudential stringency appears less critical in the case of floods, as their predictability may generally foster self-discipline.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 103325"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143760916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Machine learning the performance of hedge fund 机器学习对冲基金的表现
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103332
Tian Ma , Wanwan Wang , Fuwei Jiang
{"title":"Machine learning the performance of hedge fund","authors":"Tian Ma ,&nbsp;Wanwan Wang ,&nbsp;Fuwei Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103332","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103332","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study utilizes generative AI to predict and classify the performance of hedge funds based on groups of fund characteristics. Compared to commonly used machine learning methods, our method can successfully distinguish high- and low-performing funds across various investment strategies, with the return spread being the highest in the equity hedge strategy at 3.16 % monthly. The results are robust in risk-adjusted return prediction. Trend-based features are the most important predictors of future fund performance. Returns of predictive long-short portfolios are higher following periods of low narrative attention and favorable macroeconomic conditions. The asset allocation exercise highlights the significant economic value of machine learning. Our study enriches the burgeoning field of machine learning and artificial intelligence for finance by applying big data techniques to fund selection and allocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 103332"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143790961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate change uncertainty and corporate debt relationship: A quantile panel data analysis 气候变化不确定性与企业债务关系：分位数面板数据分析
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103320
Fredj Jawadi , Philippe Rozin , Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou
{"title":"Climate change uncertainty and corporate debt relationship: A quantile panel data analysis","authors":"Fredj Jawadi ,&nbsp;Philippe Rozin ,&nbsp;Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103320","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103320","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Is there a link between climate change action and the corporate debt market? Climate concerns are affecting a growing number of firms, their capital demand and indebtedness, as their exposure to ecological transition and climate change risk can influence their capital cost, capital demand and therefore their corporate debt decisions. This study examines the impact of climate change risk/unertainty on corporate debt and tests further lead-lag effects. To this end, we rely on data related to US companies listed on the S&amp;P500 over the period 1990–2024, focusing on a large sample over a timeline characterized by different episodes, crises, and tensions related to climate change. Accordingly, we define the relationship between US corporate debt and climate change uncertainty using linear and nonlinear specifications. Our results show that pressure linked to ecological transition and climate change risk has had a significant impact on US firms’ debt and their capital structure. However, it appears that the impact of climate risks varies depending on the quantile under consideration and therefore the level of firm’s debt, suggesting further evidence of asymmetry and nonlinearity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 103320"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143738846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary and fiscal policy in a two-country model with behavioral expectations 具有行为预期的两国模型中的货币和财政政策
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103331
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina , Paweł R. Galiński , Krzysztof Makarski
{"title":"Monetary and fiscal policy in a two-country model with behavioral expectations","authors":"Michał Brzoza-Brzezina ,&nbsp;Paweł R. Galiński ,&nbsp;Krzysztof Makarski","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103331","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103331","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We check how monetary and fiscal policies (in particular their open-economy dimensions) are affected by expectations being behavioral in the spirit of Gabaix (2020). We first show that the data strongly favor this setting compared with the standard rational expectations assumption. Then we document several novel findings. First, monetary policy is less powerful and faces a higher sacrifice ratio when agents are behavioral. Second, the Taylor principle is affected: determinacy regions are larger if the economy is more open or the central bank abroad is more hawkish. Third, fiscal policy and its international spillovers are amplified under behavioral expectations. In contrast, the spillovers of monetary policy are dampened. Fourth, behavioral expectations contribute to solving the puzzle of excess foreign currency returns (UIP puzzle).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 103331"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143828562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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