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Innovation’s false spring: U.S. export controls and Chinese patent quality 创新的假春天：美国出口管制与中国专利质量
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103229
Yankun Kang , Xin Ma , Mi Xie , Ninghua Zhong
{"title":"Innovation’s false spring: U.S. export controls and Chinese patent quality","authors":"Yankun Kang ,&nbsp;Xin Ma ,&nbsp;Mi Xie ,&nbsp;Ninghua Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103229","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103229","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper evaluates the effect of U.S. export restrictions, enacted in 2018, on China’s patent production. An analysis of patent-level datasets indicates a significant surge in Chinese patent filings in sanctioned technological domains. This quantitative growth, however, is accompanied by a decrease in patent quality, evidenced by reduced citation counts and market worth. Specifically, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have witnessed a substantial rise in patent filings post-2018, while private firms exhibit a more modest increase. Despite the surge in patent quantity, the overall quality of patents—particularly those originating from SOEs—has deteriorated significantly. This study contributes to the body of research concerning the economic consequences of the US-China trade dispute and offers original insights into the implications of trade sanctions on innovation quality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103229"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142663445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade circumvention in free trade areas 自由贸易区的贸易规避
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103232
Jianpeng Deng, Jialin Li, Joseph Mai, Yanmin Shi, Linke Zhu
{"title":"Trade circumvention in free trade areas","authors":"Jianpeng Deng,&nbsp;Jialin Li,&nbsp;Joseph Mai,&nbsp;Yanmin Shi,&nbsp;Linke Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103232","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103232","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) incentivize non-member countries to engage in trade circumvention through member countries, and how much does this behavior contribute to increased trade among RTA members? This paper provides empirical evidence on the prevalence of illicit transshipment through RTAs and quantifies its contribution to trade growth in a case study of NAFTA. Using global trade data and guided by a discrete choice model of shipment methods, we estimate the causal impact of tariff differentials created by RTAs on illicit transshipment, inferred from trade discrepancies. Our results show that circumvention increases more for products with larger preferential margins after the establishment of an RTA, with re-exports serving as a key channel. We also find substantial heterogeneity in these effects. In the case of NAFTA, we find that trade circumvention contributed to 16.4% of the increase in U.S. imports from Mexico in 2018, when the U.S. returned to protectionist policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103232"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geopolitical turmoil and investor green preference: Evidence from the corporate bond market 地缘政治动荡与投资者的绿色偏好：来自公司债券市场的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103218
Paolo Fiorillo , Antonio Meles , Dario Salerno , Vincenzo Verdoliva
{"title":"Geopolitical turmoil and investor green preference: Evidence from the corporate bond market","authors":"Paolo Fiorillo ,&nbsp;Antonio Meles ,&nbsp;Dario Salerno ,&nbsp;Vincenzo Verdoliva","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103218","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103218","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we analyze a sample of 1,630 corporate green bonds issued internationally between November 2012 and January 2024 to investigate the yield differences between green and non-green bonds. Our findings reveal a small greenium, particularly significant in the secondary market among carbon-intensive industries, first-time green bond issuers, and riskier issuances. We show that Geopolitical Risk (GPR) significantly influences the greenium in the secondary market, primarily driven by geopolitical acts rather than threats. Additionally, we establish that third-party certifications and corporate exposure to environmental risk are critical in explaining the GPR-greenium relationship. These results underscore the importance of GPR in enhancing investor preference for green bonds, offering important implications for both practice and policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103218"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142552752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Carbon risk and corporate maturity mismatch 碳风险和企业期限错配
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103213
Ming Huang , Xiaoxiao Wang , Xuewu Wang , Qunzi Zhang
{"title":"Carbon risk and corporate maturity mismatch","authors":"Ming Huang ,&nbsp;Xiaoxiao Wang ,&nbsp;Xuewu Wang ,&nbsp;Qunzi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103213","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103213","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of carbon risk on the corporate maturity mismatch of investment and debt. We find that carbon risk exacerbates maturity mismatches, primarily by increasing debt default risk, which in turn reduces both the availability and maturity of bank loans. At the same time, carbon risk drives firms to undertake riskier investments, compelling them to rely more heavily on short-term financing to support long-term projects. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of carbon risk on maturity mismatch is more pronounced in firms that are smaller in size, exhibit weaker financial performance, have higher leverage, hold less cash, or engage in less green innovation. Moreover, under heightened carbon risk, increased maturity mismatch appears to reduce agency costs and enhance firm performance, thereby improving resource allocation. This finding supports the monitoring role of maturity mismatch. Our results remain robust across multiple sensitivity tests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103213"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142552811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Not all banking crises are alike: Assessing their distributional impacts relative to pre-crisis credit gaps 并非所有的银行危机都是一样的：评估危机前信贷缺口对分配的影响
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103220
Jean-Marc Atsebi , Samuel Ligonnière , Clément Mathonnat
{"title":"Not all banking crises are alike: Assessing their distributional impacts relative to pre-crisis credit gaps","authors":"Jean-Marc Atsebi ,&nbsp;Samuel Ligonnière ,&nbsp;Clément Mathonnat","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103220","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103220","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The empirical literature on the effects of banking crises on income inequality has yielded mixed findings. In this paper, we aim to reconcile these mixed results by evaluating the effects of banking crises on income inequality in relation to pre-crisis credit gaps. We apply the Local Projections methodology to a yearly panel of 68 banking crises that occurred in 59 countries over the period 1970–2017. Three key results emerge. First, banking crises lead to increased income inequality. Second, only those banking crises preceded by larger credit gaps show a significant increase in income inequality. Third, a deeper contraction in the credit supply and a higher unemployment rate are two channels that could potentially explain why inequality rises more after banking crises with larger pre-crisis credit gaps. These results underscore the importance of macroprudential policies that, as well as limiting the amplitude of the financial cycle and the associated risks of financial crises, could also play a key role in reducing the distributional consequences of banking crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103220"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142663442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nothing special about an allowance for corporate equity: Evidence from Italian banks 公司股权备抵并无特别之处：意大利银行的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103219
Dennis Dreusch , Felix Noth , Peter Reichling
{"title":"Nothing special about an allowance for corporate equity: Evidence from Italian banks","authors":"Dennis Dreusch ,&nbsp;Felix Noth ,&nbsp;Peter Reichling","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103219","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103219","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes the impact of reduced tax incentives for equity financing on banks' regulatory capital ratios under the Basel III regime. We are particularly interested in a recent interest rate cut in the Italian corporate equity allowance, which reduces the relative tax advantage of equity financing. The results show that banks respond to this increased tax disparity by significantly reducing their regulatory capital while at the same time reducing their risk-taking. The decline in capital is more pronounced for small banks and outweighs the initial capital gains from the introduction of this tax instrument. Our results challenge the use of equity allowances, in that financial stability gains persist only as long as costly tax subsidies remain intact and diminish as the size of the subsidy is reduced.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103219"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal policy design and inflation: The COVID-19 pandemic experience 财政政策设计与通货膨胀：COVID-19 大流行病的经验
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103210
Galina Hale , John Leer , Fernanda Nechio
{"title":"Fiscal policy design and inflation: The COVID-19 pandemic experience","authors":"Galina Hale ,&nbsp;John Leer ,&nbsp;Fernanda Nechio","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103210","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103210","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The significant rise in inflation (nearly) worldwide has been associated with different shocks and a range of policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We study how the design of fiscal support measures helps explain the origins of the post-pandemic inflationary bout by exploring the heterogeneity of fiscal support measures across 10 large economies. Because conventional measures of real activity were distorted in the early stages of the pandemic, we control for the underlying state of the real economy using household sentiment data. We find that five weeks following support announcements, fiscal support measures already had statistically and economically significant, albeit not large, inflationary effects. The magnitude of the effect was twice as large in an environment of improving consumer sentiment and, in that case, the effects did not differ significantly whether the fiscal support targeted consumers or firms. Moreover, the inflationary effect was larger and much more immediate if the support involved cash transfers. Our findings suggest that policy design mattered for the underlying inflationary pressures in the aftermath of the pandemic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103210"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142663443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Green innovation through trade: The impact of European Union emissions trading scheme on Chinese exporters 通过贸易实现绿色创新：欧盟排放交易计划对中国出口商的影响
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103215
Yinan Liu , Peiyao Lv , Hao Zhao
{"title":"Green innovation through trade: The impact of European Union emissions trading scheme on Chinese exporters","authors":"Yinan Liu ,&nbsp;Peiyao Lv ,&nbsp;Hao Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103215","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103215","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the international diffusion of green innovation through trade, focusing on the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on Chinese exporters. Using a difference-in-differences approach with firm-level data from 2000 to 2013, we find that the EU ETS significantly increased green patent applications among China-to-EU exporters. The likelihood of green patent applications increased by 0.2%, effectively doubling the pre-policy rate. Our mechanism analyses indicate that the increase is driven by the learning-by-exporting effect, rather than market size effects or the anticipation of regulatory and market condition changes. These results highlight the role of international trade in disseminating green technology and demonstrate how environmental regulations can foster innovation across global markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103215"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bond supply expectations and the term structure of interest rates 债券供应预期和利率的期限结构
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103217
M. Billio , F. Busetto , A. Dufour , S. Varotto
{"title":"Bond supply expectations and the term structure of interest rates","authors":"M. Billio ,&nbsp;F. Busetto ,&nbsp;A. Dufour ,&nbsp;S. Varotto","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103217","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103217","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the influence of forward-looking government bond supply information on changes in the term structure of interest rates. While traditional arbitrage-free models suggest that bond supply should not impact bond yields, models accounting for preferred-habitat investors and imperfect asset substitutability raise this possibility. By analysing debt supply expectations derived from Germany's Treasury press releases, we find that news about expected bond supply affects bond yields, supporting the notion that supply expectations influence current interest rates. Our study also extends macro-finance models, highlighting the significant role of supply expectations in term structure dynamics. Additionally, we provide insights into the puzzle of German government bond yields falling below the ECB deposit rate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103217"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic policy uncertainty in OFDI host countries and the cross-section of stock returns 对外直接投资东道国经济政策的不确定性与股票收益的横截面
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103214
Ya Peng, Xueyong Zhang
{"title":"Economic policy uncertainty in OFDI host countries and the cross-section of stock returns","authors":"Ya Peng,&nbsp;Xueyong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103214","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103214","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the association between foreign economic policy uncertainty (FEPU) originating from the host countries (regions) of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and expected stock returns. We construct a novel variable, <em>FEPU</em>, based on the year-end OFDI amounts of Chinese listed multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the EPU indices of 23 host countries (regions). Our findings reveal that stocks with higher <em>FEPU</em> outperform those with lower <em>FEPU</em> by 4.96 % annually. Beyond predicting short-term expected returns, <em>FEPU</em> also exhibits strong positive predictive power for firms’ long-term cumulative returns. Additionally, through mechanism tests, we demonstrate that this excess return is attributable to compensation for risk premium. Unlike the majority of studies that focus solely on the impact of EPU within a single country or region, we examine the cross-border implications of EPU. This approach offers an innovative perspective on the pricing of MNEs’ stocks by characterizing the exposure to external EPU.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103214"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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