Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献_第2页

U.S.-China trade frictions and supply chain reconstruction: Perspective from indirect links

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103256

Changyuan Luo , Ning Wang

{"title":"U.S.-China trade frictions and supply chain reconstruction: Perspective from indirect links","authors":"Changyuan Luo , Ning Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103256","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103256","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building on the theoretical discussions, the paper empirically investigates how U.S.-China trade frictions impact the supply chain through the perspective of indirect links. It utilizes data of U.S. listed firms from 2014 to 2022 and employs a difference-in-differences model for analysis. The baseline estimation finds that U.S. firms tend to establish supply chain relations with third country firms deeply integrated into Chinese supply chain after 2018. Mechanism analysis shows that after trade frictions occur, U.S. firms choose to maintain indirect supply chain connections with China through third countries based on considerations of procedural costs, financial costs, and relational costs. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that U.S. firms in industries directly affected by trade frictions or in industries where China has supply chain advantages are inclined to make such adjustments, tending to engage in indirect cooperation with Chinese firms through third-country firms that have pre-existing supply chain collaborations with Chinese firms. Extended analysis examines the supply chain adjustments of other countries or regions after the trade frictions. We find that Chinese firms increase their supply chain connections with third countries and increase green-field investment in these countries. U.S. allies also adjust their supply chains like the U.S., while non-U.S. allies do not make any adjustments. Hence, the paper believes that the “decoupling” strategy may be difficult to achieve, and trade restrictions only lead to U.S. firms maintaining indirect relations with China through third countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103256"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Current account dynamics and saving-investment nexus in a changing and uncertain world

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103238

Menzie Chinn , Hiro Ito

{"title":"Current account dynamics and saving-investment nexus in a changing and uncertain world","authors":"Menzie Chinn , Hiro Ito","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103238","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103238","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We re‐examine the determinants of current account balances (CAB) and the saving-investment nexus with focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). We are in a new age in terms of facing not just economic challenges but also other non-economic challenges such as global climate changes, increasing natural disasters, and wars. We face the need to reexamine the determinants of CAB along with national saving and investment. We first take an event study approach, examining how these variables have evolved historically in the wake of wars, natural disasters, and pandemics. The second is a cross‐country panel investigation of CAB, national saving, and of investment. In the presence of global financial instability, EMDEs tend to experience an improvement in CAB due to a fall in investment. A rise in oil prices increases both national saving and investment, but the change in investment is greater than the change in national saving, which worsens CAB. Contractionary monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board tends to lower both national saving and investment, but the impact on CAB is not statistically different from zero. The more frequently a country experiences wars, on average, its CAB tends to improve. When a climatological or geographical disaster happens, all of its CAB, national saving, and investment tend to improve. A rise in the level of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty leads to an improvement in CAB, mainly due to a fall in investment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103238"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143104296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

U.S. monetary policy and portfolio spillover effects: The role of global production network

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103255

Tong Qi , Jiezhou Ying

引用次数: 0

Industry growth at the lower bound

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103283

Arsenios Skaperdas

引用次数: 0

Exchange rate regime and optimal policy: The case of China

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103277

Yujeong Cho , Yintao He , Yiping Huang , Jieru Wang , Changhua Yu

引用次数: 0

Monetary policy spillovers: Is this time different?

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103278

Hongyi Chen , Peter Tillmann

引用次数: 0

Climate change exposure and green bonds issuance

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103281

Khaled Guesmi , Panagiota Makrychoriti , Emmanouil G. Pyrgiotakis

引用次数: 0

Climate policy uncertainty and synergistic industrial agglomeration: What role does financial development play?

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103282

Qunxi Kong , Ziqi Wang , Peipei Wu , Dan Peng

{"title":"Climate policy uncertainty and synergistic industrial agglomeration: What role does financial development play?","authors":"Qunxi Kong , Ziqi Wang , Peipei Wu , Dan Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103282","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103282","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The intensification of global climate change and the uncertainty surrounding climate policies have significantly impacted economic development, particularly in the optimization of industrial structures. We analyze the relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU), financial development, and synergistic industrial agglomeration, utilizing panel data from cities at or above the prefectural level in China from 2003 to 2019. The results indicate that climate policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on the synergistic agglomeration of manufacturing and productive services, particularly in the economically developed and highly urbanized eastern region. Furthermore, a U-shaped nonlinear relationship exists between climate policy uncertainty and agglomeration. Additionally, the level of financial development significantly mitigates the negative impact of climate policy uncertainty on industrial agglomeration, contributing to its stability and sustainability. We suggest that enhancing the transparency and stability of climate policies, strengthening the financial system, and promoting coordinated regional development can foster synergistic industrial agglomeration and alleviate the adverse effects of climate policy uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103282"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143171723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Stablecoin price dynamics under a peg-stabilising mechanism

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103280

Cho-Hoi Hui , Andrew Wong , Chi-Fai Lo

{"title":"Stablecoin price dynamics under a peg-stabilising mechanism","authors":"Cho-Hoi Hui , Andrew Wong , Chi-Fai Lo","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103280","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103280","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Stablecoins are created in various public or private blockchains, and their growing uses include payments, settlements, lending, and even as safe assets in periods of turmoil. They are designed to maintain credible price stability similar to that of a currency pegged to another currency (e.g. the US dollar) operated under a currency board monetary system. To study the peg-stabilising mechanism for stablecoin prices and associated dynamics, this paper uses the analogy of a currency board and the theory of the quasi-bounded target zone model based on the standard flexible-price monetary framework. The solution to the model equation illustrates that the price is more stable in a narrower trading bandwidth and less sensitive to changes in the fundamental variable (i.e. demand for stablecoins) with a stronger stabilising force in the fundamental dynamics. The empirical results using the stablecoin Tether demonstrate that the model can describe Tether’s price dynamics. The mean reversion in the Tether price dynamics representing the stabilising force is positively related to market liquidity in the stablecoin market and volatility in the price of Bitcoin, suggesting that the increased market liquidity and safe haven characteristic of Tether stabilise its price. Tether’s blockchain migration with a larger investor base enhanced the peg-stabilising mechanism. This paper also discusses the implications for prudential treatment of stablecoins, including trading bandwidths, market liquidity condition, and the quality of backing reserves.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103280"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143171728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Inequality, current account imbalances, and middle incomes

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103267

Océane Blomme , Jérôme Héricourt

{"title":"Inequality, current account imbalances, and middle incomes","authors":"Océane Blomme , Jérôme Héricourt","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103267","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103267","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the complex relationship between current account balance and income inequality, specifically emphasizing the potential sources of nonlinearities. Based on a dataset for 52 developed and developing countries over the period 1990-2019, we first show a one-standard-deviation increase in various income-inequality indicators generates a decrease in the ratio of current account to GDP by -0.5 to -0.9 percentage points in developed countries, but has a weaker impact when the sample is expanded to include emerging and developing countries. We then show those average impacts are distorted along the distribution of economic and financial development variables. The negative impact of income inequality on current account is actually strongly conditioned to the size of financial markets and the degree of financial liberalization. For those countries displaying low GDP per capita or low levels of financial liberalization, additional income inequality seems to improve the current account balance. In addition, the decrease in the current account balance is in most cases from 1.1 to 1.9 times more important in the median country when the increase in inequality is driven by the income of top earners relative to the middle class rather than by the increase in top earners' incomes at the expense of the lowest percentiles of the distribution. These results are robust to various checks for endogeneity concerns, as well as to alternative specifications, samples, and variable definitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103267"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143104567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0