通过非正式金融渠道的财政溢出效应

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103378

Austin Kennedy

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文通过非正式国际金融渠道考察了财政政策的溢出效应，将美国的刺激支票作为一种积极、突然和直接的财政冲击。我利用粒度，交易级加密货币数据结合算法来概率识别跨境“加密工具”交易，以构建国家之间的双边加密货币流动。我使用差异中的差异策略，比较了美国和其他高收入国家之间的加密货币流出，发现直接刺激导致加密货币流出急剧但暂时增加。我量化了相对于支出的财政溢出，并通过这一渠道设定了2.52 %的上限。这意味着通过汇款渠道产生的财政溢出效应可能规模不大。

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Fiscal spillovers through informal financial channels

This paper examines fiscal policy spillovers through informal international financial channels, using the US stimulus checks as a positive, sudden, and direct fiscal shock. I utilize granular, transaction-level cryptocurrency data combined with an algorithm to probabilistically identify cross-border “crypto vehicle" transactions to construct bilateral cryptocurrency flows between countries. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I compare cryptocurrency outflows between the US and other high-income countries and find a sharp but temporary increase in cryptocurrency outflows as a result of the direct stimulus. I quantify the fiscal spillover relative to expenditure and place an upper bound of 2.52 % through this channel. This implies that fiscal spillovers through remittance channels are likely modest in size.

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来源期刊

Journal of International Money and Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

4.00%

发文量

141

期刊介绍： Since its launch in 1982, Journal of International Money and Finance has built up a solid reputation as a high quality scholarly journal devoted to theoretical and empirical research in the fields of international monetary economics, international finance, and the rapidly developing overlap area between the two. Researchers in these areas, and financial market professionals too, pay attention to the articles that the journal publishes. Authors published in the journal are in the forefront of scholarly research on exchange rate behaviour, foreign exchange options, international capital markets, international monetary and fiscal policy, international transmission and related questions.