Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献

{"title":"Prices and returns: Role of inflation","authors":"Yulong Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103149","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103149","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We find that the market dividend yield and earnings yield can positively predict future inflation internationally. The inflation predictability of price ratios could invert the standard asset pricing predictive results. For example, dividend yields do forecast real dividend growth but not nominal dividend growth. We extend the analysis to the earnings yield as a robust analysis and document a similar predictive pattern. Further term structure analysis suggests that the financial ratio variation decomposition also differs significantly in nominal and real terms. In nominal-term decomposition, discount rate news is found to be the primary contributor to variations in price ratios while in real-term decomposition, cash flow news plays a more significant role, with its importance increasing over longer investment horizons. Our study utilizes consistent inflation predictability evidence in advanced economies to re-evaluate the global relationship between price ratios and inflation. We confirm that inflation is an international state variable in post-1970s samples and that the correlation between inflation and price ratios can almost entirely be attributed to the relationship between expected inflation and future growth prospects. This finding offers an explanation for the previously puzzling correlation between the dividend-price ratio and future inflation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103149"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141932554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"China’s GDP-at-Risk: Real-Time Monitoring, Risk Tracing, and Macroeconomic Policy Effects","authors":"Jianli Sui ,&nbsp;Wenqiang Lv ,&nbsp;Xiang Gao ,&nbsp;Kees G. Koedijk","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103150","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103150","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Timely monitoring GDP-at-risk and tracing economic downside risk sources can help establish effective risk warning and prevention systems. This study constructs a probability distribution for China’s economic growth with skewness determined by a multidimensional predictor information set of macro fundamentals. Such a treatment allows us to identify changing drivers of economic downside risks during monitoring GDP-at-risk’s dynamic evolutionary path. We also employ a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model with random volatility to explore the heterogeneous impacts of different macroeconomic policy instruments on economic slowdowns. Our results provide empirical support for macroeconomic management and policy formulation in emerging markets. We reach three conclusions. First, the dynamics of GDP-at-risk exhibit significant event-driven characteristics, and economic downside risk increases significantly under the influence of extreme events. Moreover, the probability distribution of economic growth is asymmetric--as the downside risk of the economy increases, its upside potential increases disproportionately. Second, the time-varying risk trace of GDP-at-risk shows that the contribution of financial conditions and local government debt to economic downside risk declines. The importance of the risk-driving role of housing price growth gradually increases, suggesting that China’s property prices can provide more valuable early warning information about future growth risk, allowing time for precise preventive measures. Nevertheless, interest rates and inflation as risk divers have consistently minimal impacts. Third, the heterogeneity impulse response function of GDP-at-risk suggests that quantity-based monetary policy and fiscal policy can manage economic downside risks in the short run. In contrast, price-based monetary policy can curb economic overheating and reduce downside risks in the medium to long term. Therefore, the effect of price-based monetary policy is more sustainable in China.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103150"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141962878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Individualism and bank financial structure similarity","authors":"Yuejiao Duan ,&nbsp;Omrane Guedhami ,&nbsp;Xinming Li ,&nbsp;Daxuan Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103151","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103151","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use a sample of 75 countries to conduct the first international study of national culture on bank financial structure similarity. We construct a novel and comprehensive measure of bank financial structure similarity using banks’ financial statement data. Our empirical results show that individualism is robustly and positively associated with bank financial structure similarity, holding bank-pair levels, bank levels, and country levels equal. We find that other cultural dimensions, such as power distance, uncertainty avoidance, masculinity, and long-term orientation, have little effect on similarity. Our work also shows that financial structure similarity is correlated with higher bank risk.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103151"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142077353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exchange rate in emerging markets: Shock absorber or source of shock?","authors":"Pym Manopimoke ,&nbsp;Nuwat Nookhwun ,&nbsp;Jettawat Pattararangrong","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103148","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103148","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines the stabilization role of flexible exchange rates for emerging economies within the Latin America and Asia regions. Based on a structural VAR model, we utilize zero, sign and exchange rate pass-through restrictions to identify structural macroeconomic shocks. Overall, we find that exogenous exchange rate shocks drive around half of total exchange rate fluctuations in emerging economies. Despite this predominant role, we find evidence that exchange rates do not act as a source of shocks to the real economy, but they instead absorb and reduce output growth and inflation volatilities. Based on counterfactual analyses, we further find that this shock-insulation property is highly shock-dependent, where the benefits of flexible exchange rates are sizable for demand and global monetary policy shocks, but are overall small in the face of supply shocks. Results also differ across time horizons, where the shock stabilization benefits are mainly limited to the short run for output, but also extend to the medium term for inflation. We also find that the net benefits of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber are in general larger for emerging economies in Latin America than in Asia, particularly during crises periods. Finally, while we find that the stabilization role of exchange rates hinges upon the nature of underlying structural shocks, there is also a positive association with structural determinants such as a country's degree of exchange rate flexibility and trade openness.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103148"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142041359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Liquidity in the German corporate bond market: Has the CSPP made a difference?","authors":"Lena Boneva ,&nbsp;Mevlud Islami ,&nbsp;Kathi Schlepper","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103147","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103147","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Eurosystem purchased €178 billion of corporate bonds between June 2016 and December 2018 under the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP). Did these purchases lead to a deterioration of liquidity conditions in the corporate bond market, thus raising concerns about unintended consequences of large-scale asset purchases? To answer this question, we combine the Bundesbank's detailed CSPP purchase records with a range of liquidity indicators. We find that while the flow of purchases initially supported secondary market liquidity by providing a predictable source of demand, liquidity conditions deteriorated in the long-run as the Bundesbank reduced the stock of corporate bonds available for trading in the secondary market.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103147"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001347/pdfft?md5=a33d11f4809ce81ba7fdd8ebae196ba7&pid=1-s2.0-S0261560624001347-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141932555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Capital flows-at-risk: Push, pull and the role of policy","authors":"Fernando Eguren-Martin ,&nbsp;Cian O'Neill ,&nbsp;Andrej Sokol ,&nbsp;Lukas von dem Berge","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103146","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103146","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We characterise the probability distributions of various types of gross capital flows conditional on information contained in financial asset prices in a panel of emerging market economies, with a focus on ‘tail’ events. Our framework, based on the quantile regression methodology, allows for a separate role of push- and pull-type factors. We find that both push and pull factors have heterogeneous effects across the distributions of gross capital flows, which are most marked in the left tails. We then explore the role of the <em>pre-existing stance</em> of macroprudential and capital flow management policy in shaping probability distributions of capital flows. Macroprudential and capital flow management measures can both be stabilising, leading to less volatile flows and in particular to lower chances of large portfolio outflows. A tighter macroprudential stance can also reduce the sensitivity of portfolio flows to global financial shocks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103146"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141845316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Preferential trade agreements as insurance","authors":"Elie Appelbaum ,&nbsp;Mark Melatos","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103145","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103145","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate preferential trade agreement (PTA) formation when risk averse countries face demand uncertainty and, hence, have an insurance motive for pursuing trade integration. In this environment, when deciding which type of PTA − if any − they wish to form, countries seek to maximise their net welfare; that is, their expected utility less a risk premium. The desire for insurance influences, not just whether a particular PTA forms, but also the preferred depth of integration. We analyze the insurance implications of free trade agreements (FTAs), customs unions (CUs), and countries choosing to stand alone. We further distinguish between shallow CUs and deep CUs; in the former, members maximise the sum of their individual net welfares, while in the latter they maximise the net value of the sum of their individual expected welfares. We show that differences in country risk attitudes and the levels of risk they face, as well as the degree to which these risks are correlated with each other, each, and together, influence the formation and design of TAs. When countries’ demands are uncorrelated, they form a deep CU if their levels of risk aversion are sufficiently different. If, however, their risk attitudes are similar, countries opt for shallower trade integration − either a shallow CU or a FTA − if they face low levels of uncertainty, and choose to stand alone if one country faces a sufficiently high level of uncertainty. When countries’ demands are correlated, they tend to form a deep CU if their demands are strongly negatively correlated, a FTA if their demands are strongly positively correlated and a shallow CU when their demands are weakly correlated. Intuitively, differences in country risk attitudes (i.e., their degree of risk aversion) act as an additional source of comparative advantage. Deeper integration − particularly via a CU − permits less risk averse members to essentially export their relative partiality for risk to more risk averse partners, thereby effectively providing the latter with insurance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103145"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001323/pdfft?md5=87810d84cac9a048759e97d7d1e5fec8&pid=1-s2.0-S0261560624001323-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141845369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global mispricing matters","authors":"Fuwei Jiang ,&nbsp;Hongkui Liu ,&nbsp;Guohao Tang ,&nbsp;Jiasheng Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper constructs a global anomaly index based on the long-short portfolio returns of 153 anomalies across 33 stock markets. We find that global anomaly index is a strong negative predictor of aggregate stock returns in international markets, both in-sample and out-of-sample. The index delivers considerable economic value for a mean–variance investor. Moreover, it captures global common changes in overpricing, and is not subsumed by extant return predictors. Its predictive power arises from global asymmetric mispricing correction persistence, and partly from the ability to forecast sentiment-changes. Furthermore, we demonstrate significant transfer learning from the U.S. market to other markets in terms of time series predictions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103136"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141953237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Firms Entangled in Geopolitical Conflicts: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine War","authors":"Onur Kemal Tosun ,&nbsp;Arman Eshraghi ,&nbsp;Samuel A. Vigne","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103137","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103137","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examine the reactions of US-based multinationals and subsequent financial market reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The multinationals’ firm-level decisions range from clean exits from the Russian market, all the way to ‘digging in’ as if the war never happened. Findings show that, in the short-term, markets favour ‘middle ground’ decisions which balance shareholder interests with regulatory and ethical concerns. This is manifest through those firms taking extreme decisions, on either end of the spectrum, experiencing more negative returns. In the longer term, however, investor ethical concerns and other considerations dominate such that firms announcing clean breaks incur lower losses compared to their peers. In other words, sitting on the fence and playing both sides does not pay off for long. We also show interesting differences in investor reactions between two major non-US markets: China − a Russia-leaning country − vs India − a neutral country. While Indian investors behave largely similar to US investors, Chinese investors do not significantly punish firms that stay put in Russia. We re-examine the situation one year into the war and show that markets reward a Russia-opposing corporate position in the longer term.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103137"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141842014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"‘Making text talk’: The minutes of the Central Bank of Brazil and the real economy","authors":"Carlos Moreno-Pérez ,&nbsp;Marco Minozzo","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103133","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103133","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates the relationship between the views expressed in the minutes of the meetings of the Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) and the real economy. It applies various linguistic machine learning algorithms to construct different measures of the uncertainty contained in the minutes of the COPOM. To achieve this, we first infer the content of the paragraphs of the minutes with Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Secondly, we build an uncertainty index for the minutes with Word Embedding and K-Means. Thirdly, we create two topic-uncertainty indices. The first topic-uncertainty index is constructed from paragraphs with a higher probability of topics related to general economic conditions. The second topic-uncertainty index is built from paragraphs with a higher probability of topics related to inflation and the monetary policy decision. Then, via a Structural VAR, we explore the lasting effects of these uncertainty indices on some Brazilian macroeconomic variables. Our results show that an unexpected increase in the minutes' uncertainty leads to a depreciation of the exchange rate and a decline in industrial production and retail trade. Moreover, we show that a positive shock to the <em>general economic conditions</em> topic-uncertainty index leads to higher inflation, whereas a positive shock to the <em>inflation and monetary policy decision</em> topic-uncertainty index leads to lower inflation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103133"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001207/pdfft?md5=755098174bfaf2f845c805c325b1eea0&pid=1-s2.0-S0261560624001207-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141711197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}