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Did interest rate guidance in emerging markets work? 新兴市场的利率指导起作用了吗？
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103212
Julián Caballero , Blaise Gadanecz
{"title":"Did interest rate guidance in emerging markets work?","authors":"Julián Caballero ,&nbsp;Blaise Gadanecz","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103212","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103212","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Central banks in emerging market economies experimented with explicit interest rate guidance during 2020-2021. We explore the effectiveness of this policy. Despite some heterogeneity, interest rate guidance generally provided additional monetary stimulus, as reflected in lower medium-term yields and lower term spreads. The magnitude of the reduction in 10-year yields ranged between five and twenty basis points. In the immediate aftermath of the guidance, we do not observe a systematic negative market reaction – such as de-anchoring of inflation expectations, currency depreciation pressures, or increased sovereign credit risk – that would be associated with a loss of central bank credibility or with concerns about fiscal dominance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103212"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142444843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous inflation expectations: A call for customized monetary policy communication? 异质通胀预期：定制化货币政策沟通的呼声？
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103211
J.P. Medina , Miguel Mello , Jorge Ponce
{"title":"Heterogeneous inflation expectations: A call for customized monetary policy communication?","authors":"J.P. Medina ,&nbsp;Miguel Mello ,&nbsp;Jorge Ponce","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103211","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103211","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The extent to which firms differentiate their inflation expectations between one-year and two-year horizons is an important indicator of changes in inflation expectations. Within a monetary policy framework aimed at reducing the inflation rate toward the target band, firms that obtain information from the central bank are more likely to distinguish between these horizons and expect inflation to converge toward the target. Generally, decision-makers do not differentiate between horizons, but when they do, they are more likely to anticipate convergence. Conversely, external advisors often differentiate between horizons and are more likely to expect divergence. The heterogeneity in how inflation expectations are formed—depending on who within the firm sets these expectations, the information they use, and their use of aggregate inflation expectations data—suggests a need for customized monetary policy communication.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103211"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are R&D-intensive firms more resilient to trade shocks? Evidence from the U.S.–China trade war 研发密集型企业是否更能抵御贸易冲击？来自中美贸易战的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103208
Kenneth A. Kim , Hongjun Xie , Xiaojia Zheng
{"title":"Are R&D-intensive firms more resilient to trade shocks? Evidence from the U.S.–China trade war","authors":"Kenneth A. Kim ,&nbsp;Hongjun Xie ,&nbsp;Xiaojia Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103208","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103208","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study whether research and development (R&amp;D)-intensive Chinese firms were more resilient during the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade war. Using an event study, we confirm that (unsurprisingly) Chinese exporting firms that were most affected by the new U.S. tariffs suffered larger valuation declines than other firms. However, among those most affected, those that were R&amp;D intensive suffered significantly less severe declines. We also identify a channel that allowed R&amp;D-intensive firms to better absorb the trade shock: their production efficiency improved amidst the trade war, due to enhanced operational efficiency and lower operating costs. Furthermore, in response to the trade disruptions, numerous R&amp;D-intensive Chinese companies acquired U.S. firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103208"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is high debt Constraining monetary policy? evidence from inflation expectations 高债务是否制约了货币政策？
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103206
Luis Brandao-Marques , Marco Casiraghi , Gaston Gelos , Olamide Harrison , Gunes Kamber
{"title":"Is high debt Constraining monetary policy? evidence from inflation expectations","authors":"Luis Brandao-Marques ,&nbsp;Marco Casiraghi ,&nbsp;Gaston Gelos ,&nbsp;Olamide Harrison ,&nbsp;Gunes Kamber","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103206","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103206","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines whether high public debt levels pose a challenge to containing inflation. It does so by assessing the impact of public debt surprises on inflation expectations advanced- and emerging market economies. It finds that debt surprises raise long-term inflation expectations in emerging market economies in a persistent way, but not in advanced economies. The effects are stronger when initial debt levels are already high, when inflation levels are initially high, and when debt dollarization is significant. By contrast, debt surprises have only modest effects in countries with inflation targeting regimes. Increased debt levels may complicate the fight against inflation in emerging market economies with high and dollarized debt levels, and weaker monetary policy frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103206"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stress testing climate risk: A network-based analysis of the Chinese banking system 气候风险压力测试：基于网络的中国银行系统分析
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103207
Hai-Chuan Xu , Tai-Min Li , Peng-Fei Dai , Duc Khuong Nguyen , Wei-Xing Zhou
{"title":"Stress testing climate risk: A network-based analysis of the Chinese banking system","authors":"Hai-Chuan Xu ,&nbsp;Tai-Min Li ,&nbsp;Peng-Fei Dai ,&nbsp;Duc Khuong Nguyen ,&nbsp;Wei-Xing Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103207","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103207","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing the impact of climate risks on the financial system is one of the most urgent issues currently. We build a network-based climate risk model to explain how a shock from climate policies translates into shocks in the banking system. Then, we conduct macroprudential stress tests on the Chinese banking system under various climate policy scenarios. We show that under the policy target of peaking the carbon in 2030 and CO<sub>2</sub> concentration no more than 500 ppm in 2100, individual banks in China will face equity losses ranging from 1.93% to 14.03%, equivalent to an overall loss of 6.94% in 2025. When considering the electric power sector's adoption of green energy technologies, the adverse effects will be slightly mitigated. Our stress tests suggest that the implementation of climate policies should be gradual and consider potential economic impacts so that climate goals can be achieved without undue shocks to the economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103207"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From ban to balance: How agricultural climate policies reshape rural asset allocation? 从禁止到平衡：农业气候政策如何重塑农村资产配置？
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103205
Dongyang Zhang
{"title":"From ban to balance: How agricultural climate policies reshape rural asset allocation?","authors":"Dongyang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103205","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103205","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Environmental regulation on climate risk for promoting sustainable development is an important research topic that requires further attention. In response to the increasing awareness of agricultural climate and environmental protection, the implementation of the straw burning ban policy has been adopted in China. To gain a deeper understanding of the implications and effectiveness of the straw burning ban policy on rural households assets allocation behaviors, and this study utilizes China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) during 2010 to 2018 and employs the Difference-in-Differences (DID) estimation strategy to identify the causal effect. Accordingly, we draw several empirical findings. First, the straw burning ban policy has a significant impact on the assets allocation behaviors of rural households, leading to an increase in both risk and non-risk assets. Specifically, a preference for risky investments strongly exist following the occurrence of the straw burning shock. Second, we reveal significant reductions in the number of farmers and farming production costs, including expenses related to irrigation, seeds, and land usage. Conversely, we observe a significant increase in land renting and farmer machinery leasing activities. These effects are found to change the income patterns and thus affect household assets allocation behaviors. Third, the straw burning ban policy has a significant decline impact on household expenditures, specifically in total and housing expenditures, while welfare expenditure shows a positive increase as the preventive motivation. Finally, rural households affected by straw burning ban policy are significantly induced to increase allocation in short-term saving and non-financing assets, as well as in financing fixed-assets and financial investments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103205"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142444845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Adjusting toward long-run purchasing power parity 向长期购买力平价调整
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103204
Kian Ong
{"title":"Adjusting toward long-run purchasing power parity","authors":"Kian Ong","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103204","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103204","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates and relative prices adjust to maintain a constant real exchange rate in the long run. Its empirical validity continues to be questioned. We use data on exchange rates and prices relative to the U.S. for a long-span (1870–2020) panel of 16 countries to examine (a) whether the long-run elasticity is one; (b) whether there is adjustment by exchange rates or prices to maintain a constant real exchange rate and (c) the time taken to adjust. We use four estimators, which increasingly restrict the model. These are country-specific vector error correction model in exchange rates and relative prices; the Johansen estimator, which has the cross-equation restriction that the long-run coefficient in the two equations is the same; the system pooled mean group estimator, which has a homogeneous long-run coefficient over countries and heterogeneous short-run dynamics, and a univariate real exchange rate equation used to obtain median unbiased estimates of the half-life.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103204"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142444844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tax shocks, firm entry, and productivity in the open economy 开放经济中的税收冲击、企业进入和生产率
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103203
Mathias Klein , Ludger Linnemann
{"title":"Tax shocks, firm entry, and productivity in the open economy","authors":"Mathias Klein ,&nbsp;Ludger Linnemann","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103203","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103203","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the role of endogenous firm entry for the domestic effects and international repercussions of tax policy. We present new evidence from proxy-vector autoregressions that exogenous US tax reductions increase hourly labor productivity and firm creation domestically, and induce higher trade deficits and real depreciation with respect to the other G7 countries, with positive spillovers to foreign consumption and investment. We show that the empirical evidence is compatible with a two-country model with endogenous firm entry. The entry channel provides a strong amplification mechanism for the supply effects of tax shocks at home and leads to persistent spillovers to the foreign economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103203"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142421990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Energy price surges and inflation: Fiscal policy to the rescue? 能源价格飙升和通货膨胀：财政政策来救市？
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103201
Christian Glocker , Philipp Wegmüller
{"title":"Energy price surges and inflation: Fiscal policy to the rescue?","authors":"Christian Glocker ,&nbsp;Philipp Wegmüller","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Motivated by the fiscal policy measures taken by euro zone governments during the 2021/2022 energy crisis, we examine their ability to counter inflationary surges resulting from energy price hikes in energy-importing economies. We use a calibrated small-open economy model in which monetary policy fixes the exchange rate. Subsidies on the sale of energy and on firms' energy expenditures are among the most effective instruments. They reduce marginal costs and limit the pass-through of the price hike which attenuates inflation and stabilizes output and the current account. While inflation indexation of prices aggravates the adverse effects, it renders consumption tax cuts more effective as they attenuate the shock's domestic circulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103201"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142421985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Clarity of speeches by the ECB Executive Board 用人人都能听懂的语言说话？欧洲中央银行执行董事会发言的清晰度
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103200
Lena Bjerkander , Alexander Glas
{"title":"Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Clarity of speeches by the ECB Executive Board","authors":"Lena Bjerkander ,&nbsp;Alexander Glas","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103200","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103200","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use data on speeches held by members of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Executive Board to analyze whether the clarity of central bank communication has increased over time. Employing readability measures as proxy variables, we find that the clarity of information provision is trending upward since the inception of the ECB. The increase is gradual rather than being induced by changes in the board composition or major macroeconomic events. We also show that clarity is higher for speeches aimed at general audiences and for speeches by female speakers. Moreover, we find that higher clarity of speeches is associated with more optimistic media sentiment about the ECB and a stronger relationship between speech and media sentiment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103200"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142421989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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