Asymmetric inflation target credibility

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103382

Winnie Coleman , Dieter Nautz

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB’s inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables us to estimate the effect of both positive and negative deviations of inflation from the 2 % target on ITC. In contrast to the symmetry of the ECB’s inflation target, we find that ITC is asymmetric, i.e., consumers respond significantly and plausibly signed to target deviations only when inflation is above target. When inflation is below target, however, the credibility of the inflation target cannot be improved by raising the inflation rate to close the gap.

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不对称通胀目标可信度

本文使用我们设计的一项独特的调查来调查通胀目标可信度（ITC）的决定因素，该调查旨在衡量欧洲央行通胀目标的可信度。我们的数据集包含了2019年1月至2024年11月期间收集的来自德国消费者的20多万份回复，使我们能够估计通货膨胀偏离2% %目标对ITC的正偏差和负偏差的影响。与欧洲央行通胀目标的对称性相反，我们发现ITC是不对称的，即只有当通胀高于目标时，消费者才会对目标偏差做出显著且合理的反应。然而，当通货膨胀低于目标时，通过提高通货膨胀率来缩小差距并不能改善通货膨胀目标的可信度。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Money and Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

4.00%

发文量

141

期刊介绍： Since its launch in 1982, Journal of International Money and Finance has built up a solid reputation as a high quality scholarly journal devoted to theoretical and empirical research in the fields of international monetary economics, international finance, and the rapidly developing overlap area between the two. Researchers in these areas, and financial market professionals too, pay attention to the articles that the journal publishes. Authors published in the journal are in the forefront of scholarly research on exchange rate behaviour, foreign exchange options, international capital markets, international monetary and fiscal policy, international transmission and related questions.