Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献_第7页

Deciphering Delphic guidance: The Bank of England and geopolitical uncertainty 解读德尔菲指引：英格兰银行与地缘政治的不确定性

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103530

Jagjit S. Chadha , Corrado Macchiarelli , Satyam Goel , Arno Hantzsche , Sathya Mellina

{"title":"Deciphering Delphic guidance: The Bank of England and geopolitical uncertainty","authors":"Jagjit S. Chadha , Corrado Macchiarelli , Satyam Goel , Arno Hantzsche , Sathya Mellina","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103530","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103530","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effective transmission of monetary policy can be hampered by geopolitical uncertainty, at times necessitating central banks to adapt their tools and communication strategy in order to anchor market expectations. The UK 2016 referendum on EU membership is a prominent example of geopolitical uncertainty, manifested as a historic event. Accordingly, this paper examines how the Bank of England (BoE) adjusted their response, including through conventional, unconventional monetary policy measures and communications. We use text-based analysis of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) summaries and minutes to measure the stance of policy, QE-related news and geopolitical uncertainty. To investigate the impact of central bank communication, we then decompose long-dated yields into a risk-neutral and term premium component and analyse the dynamic response to MPC communication. We show that the Bank’s communication strategy acted to complement the stance of monetary policy, which had responded to the result of the referendum by lowering Bank Rate and expanding QE, and helped lower the term premium that might otherwise have risen in response to this example of geopolitical uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103530"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146079223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Public spending and inclusive growth: A cross-country empirical analysis 公共支出与包容性增长：一项跨国实证分析

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103528

Gazi Salah Uddin , Anh H. Le , Md. Bokhtiar Hasan , John Beirne , Donghyun Park

{"title":"Public spending and inclusive growth: A cross-country empirical analysis","authors":"Gazi Salah Uddin , Anh H. Le , Md. Bokhtiar Hasan , John Beirne , Donghyun Park","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103528","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103528","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the effects of different components of government spending on inclusive growth. More specifically, we consider the inclusive impact of public spending on environmental protection, health, education, housing, and social protection, all of which can conceivably promote inclusive growth. For our empirical analysis, we apply panel regressions and local projections to a comprehensive database of 191 countries between 1980 and 2023. Our evidence indicates that equity-promoting government spending reduces income inequality, as measured by the Gini index, and improves human development indicators. Moreover, our analysis reveals that poorer households benefit disproportionately, suggesting that targeted fiscal expenditures can promote equity. Notably, the inclusive effects are most pronounced in advanced economies, where robust fiscal frameworks support and amplify such effects. In contrast, emerging and developing economies experience more modest gains. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of well-designed public spending programs for equitable growth. Finally, we conduct state-dependent local projections and a regional sub-sample analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103528"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tariffs, inflation and monetary policy: Implications for welfare 关税、通货膨胀和货币政策：对福利的影响

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103509

Renzo Alvarez , Hakan Yilmazkuday

{"title":"Tariffs, inflation and monetary policy: Implications for welfare","authors":"Renzo Alvarez , Hakan Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103509","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103509","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper investigates the effects of tariffs on the United States inflation and other macroeconomic variables, where alternative monetary policies are considered to mitigate the welfare costs of tariffs. The main innovation of the model is achieved by considering the effects of home versus foreign tariffs in an otherwise standard two-country open economy model with non-zero trend inflation that is estimated using Bayesian techniques with the United States quarterly data, including those on tariffs, inflation, policy rates, output, consumption and exchange rates covering the period between 1990 and 2024. Simulations based on the estimated parameters suggest that tariff pass-through into inflation is about <span><math><mn>9</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>%</mi></math></span> when only the home country imposes tariffs and about <span><math><mn>10</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>%</mi></math></span> when the foreign country retaliates against home tariffs. The counterfactual analyses further suggest that reducing the policy weight on inflation, increasing the policy weight on employment, or having an expansionary monetary policy shock could be used to mitigate the welfare costs of tariff increases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103509"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Government spending dynamics in small open economies 小型开放经济体的政府支出动态

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103483

Raphaelle G. Coulombe , Jaroslav Horvath

引用次数: 0

Foreign exchange intervention and financial stability 外汇干预与金融稳定

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103439

Pierre-Richard Agénor , Timothy P. Jackson , Luiz A. Pereira da Silva

{"title":"Foreign exchange intervention and financial stability","authors":"Pierre-Richard Agénor , Timothy P. Jackson , Luiz A. Pereira da Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103439","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103439","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effects of sterilized intervention are studied in a model with financial frictions. The central bank operates a managed float and issues sterilization bonds. In contrast with most of the existing literature, these bonds are held only by banks, and are imperfect substitutes for loans. The model is parameterized and used to study optimal policy responses to capital inflows associated with a transitory shock to world interest rates. The results show that sterilized intervention can be expansionary due to a <em>bank portfolio channel</em> and may exacerbate risks to financial stability. Full sterilization is optimal only when that channel is absent. The optimal degree of intervention is more aggressive when the central bank can choose simultaneously the degree of sterilization; in that sense, and conditional on intervention taking place, the instruments are complements. When the central bank’s objective function also accounts for the implicit cost of sterilization, and concerns with that cost are sufficiently high, intervention and sterilization can be substitutes—independently of whether exchange rate and financial stability considerations also matter for policymakers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103439"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145425172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Uncertainty shocks and inflation: The role of credibility and expectation anchoring 不确定性冲击与通货膨胀：信用和预期锚定的作用

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103472

Joscha Beckmann , Robert L. Czudaj

引用次数: 0

A global assessment of banks’ capacity to support the energy transition: Evidence from developed and emerging markets 银行支持能源转型能力的全球评估：来自发达市场和新兴市场的证据

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103468

Marcelo Martins Tachy , Gláucia Fernandes Vasconcelos , Layla dos Santos Mendes

{"title":"A global assessment of banks’ capacity to support the energy transition: Evidence from developed and emerging markets","authors":"Marcelo Martins Tachy , Gláucia Fernandes Vasconcelos , Layla dos Santos Mendes","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103468","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103468","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global shift toward renewable energy is accelerating, driven by climate policies, technological advances, and rising investor interest. However, concerns remain about banks’ ability to support this transition while managing risks and maintaining financial stability. This paper examines the relationship between renewable energy expansion and bank risk, considering cross-country differences in financial systems and regulations. Using data from 27 economies and a fixed effects model, we assess the impact of renewable energy growth on market-based risk indicators, specifically Distance to Default (DD) and Distance to Capital (DC). Our findings indicate that global expansion of renewable energy enhances banking stability. In developed economies, it boosts financial resilience, while in developing ones, it paradoxically raises banking risk, reducing DD and DC. A robustness check with public investment reveals that higher public spending decreases DD and DC in developed countries, signaling greater risk. In contrast, in developing economies, public investment helps stabilize banking risk. These results highlight the complex relationship between renewable energy policies and bank risk, shaped by differing economic and regulatory settings. Additional analysis supports our hypotheses, indicating that the energy transition has a significant impact on bank risk and underscores the need for tailored financial policies to support renewable energy financing while advancing carbon neutrality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103468"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145526119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What happens to emerging market economies when US yields go up? 当美国国债收益率上升时，新兴市场经济体会发生什么？

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103442

Julián Caballero, Christian Upper

引用次数: 0

Mind the tone: Responses of inflation expectations to central bankers’ speeches 注意语气：通胀预期对央行官员讲话的回应

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103452

Dooyeon Cho , Jaehun Jung

引用次数: 0

Your fear is (partly) mine: the role of non-VIX volatility in forecasting regional stock market volatility using interpretable machine learning 你的担忧（在一定程度上）也是我的担忧：利用可解释的机器学习，非vix波动率在预测地区股市波动中的作用

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103467

Lingbing Feng , Jingyi Shi , Ali M. Kutan

{"title":"Your fear is (partly) mine: the role of non-VIX volatility in forecasting regional stock market volatility using interpretable machine learning","authors":"Lingbing Feng , Jingyi Shi , Ali M. Kutan","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103467","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103467","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We extend earlier work on the information content of the US implied volatility index (VIX) in cross-market forecasting by providing evidence on the information content of several non-VIX market volatility indexes on local and regional stock market volatility. To do so, we employ dynamic automated machine learning models to examine their forecasting performance and spillover effects by considering four advanced markets (the US, Germany, Japan, and Hong Kong) and two emerging markets (China and India). The sample includes five-minute high-frequency data from March 2, 2015, to March 1, 2024. The results show that (1) the local volatility index has the most significant forecasting effect on the local stock market, particularly during periods of market stability; (2) the VIX has significant forecasting spillover effects, but its forecasting role is weaker in the two emerging markets than in the developed markets; (3) after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the predictability of the US (Chinese) stock market declined (increased) and the information content of the reconstructed Chinese market implied volatility index (CVIX) rose significantly, surpassing the role of VIX; and (4) the spillover effect is asymmetric, and the intensity of cross-market contagion is greater during market turbulence, especially in developed markets with significant resonance effects. The findings are useful for investors and managers in managing portfolio risks and designing investment strategies across regions and markets and have significant implications for policy makers and central banks as they implement effective financial stability policies to deal with the transmission of non-VIX volatility spillovers to national stock markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103467"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145526518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0