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In the same boat: Climate risk and hidden debt in the supply chain 同舟共济：气候风险和供应链中的隐性债务
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103299
Yishuang Liu , Hanmin Dong , Yueyang Wang
{"title":"In the same boat: Climate risk and hidden debt in the supply chain","authors":"Yishuang Liu ,&nbsp;Hanmin Dong ,&nbsp;Yueyang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103299","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103299","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how companies adjust trade credit in response to climate change risks within supply chains. Covering 20,946 company-supplier-year pair observations from 2003 to 2022 in China, we find that: (1) As climate-related physical risks from suppliers increase, customer companies reduce accounts payable to mitigate financial vulnerabilities and enhance supply chain resilience. A one-unit increase in climate risk can cause a 0.01% decline in the short-term accounts payable and a 0.03% decrease in the long-term. (2) Companies tend to terminate supplier-customer relationships if these climate uncertainties persist beyond two years. While companies invest in innovation and reallocate resources for climate adaptation, unexpected shocks continue to affect their financial decisions, particularly when risk exposure exceeds experience-based expectations. (3) Proximity in geography, administration, and economy improves supply chain collaboration, leading to earlier supplier payments. In contrast, customer companies increase accounts payable if suppliers are located in regions with less adaptation ability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103299"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143429527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Carbon risk and debt financing: An international perspective 碳风险与债务融资：一个国际视角
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103294
Xiaohang Ren , Wenqi Li , Kun Duan , Andrew Urquhart
{"title":"Carbon risk and debt financing: An international perspective","authors":"Xiaohang Ren ,&nbsp;Wenqi Li ,&nbsp;Kun Duan ,&nbsp;Andrew Urquhart","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103294","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103294","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Threatening escalation of carbon emissions has elicited increasing attention to the significance of carbon risk in shaping a firm’s debt financing decision. Despite the policy significance, the relationship between carbon risk and debt financing remains to be resolved. This paper provides a firm-level investigation to seek insights into the impact of carbon risk on debt financing. Employing an international dataset covering 24 economies, our results suggest that rising carbon risk leads to debt expansion, validating the liquidity shortage view that carbon risk enlarges firm’s liquidity concerns to resort to debt financing. The debt expansion effect of carbon risk is found to be more pronounced in countries with high uncertainty and low socio-economic development, industries with high competition, firms with non-high-tech attributes, low financial constraints, limited growth opportunities, and leverage ratios below the optimal level. Further analysis supports the Porter hypothesis by showing that carbon risk and its resultant debt expansion can enhance corporate performance in a time-lagged pattern.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103294"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143429528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring transitory inflation: Implications for monetary policy and stock market volatility 衡量暂时性通胀：对货币政策和股市波动的影响
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103284
Yosef Bonaparte , Frank J. Fabozzi , Matt Peron
{"title":"Measuring transitory inflation: Implications for monetary policy and stock market volatility","authors":"Yosef Bonaparte ,&nbsp;Frank J. Fabozzi ,&nbsp;Matt Peron","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103284","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103284","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present a methodology for developing a transitory inflation (TI) measure that captures persistent deviations from mean inflation, distinguishing it from underlying inflation. First, we analyze the decay rate of TI as it reverts to stationary inflation, finding that convergence typically ranges between two to four years. We then examine the impact of TI on monetary policy, demonstrating that a surge in TI increases monetary policy uncertainty and is followed by interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, we investigate how TI influences key stock market outcomes and find its impact varies across sectors and by market capitalization; overall, higher TI is associated with lower asset prices, especially for small-cap stocks, and higher stock market volatility. We also identify rising oil prices as a significant driver of TI.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 103284"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143474180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Market mechanisms for energy transition: Fossil energy price shocks and irrational renewable energy financing 能源转型的市场机制：化石能源价格冲击与非理性的可再生能源融资
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103251
Siquan Wang , Anna Min Du , Boqiang Lin
{"title":"Market mechanisms for energy transition: Fossil energy price shocks and irrational renewable energy financing","authors":"Siquan Wang ,&nbsp;Anna Min Du ,&nbsp;Boqiang Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103251","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103251","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China is taking a leading role in the renewable energy industry and is dedicated to promoting the market-based operation mechanism of the energy transition. Nearly all media attribute it to industrial policies; however, this is insufficient to explain the periodic overcapacity risk behind the rapid development − neglecting the market irrationality behind the prosperity and failing to provide further guidance for the proactive government. Based on the micro-level evidence of enterprise business data, this study explores the market feedback mechanism between renewable energy business expansion and financing under the fossil energy price shocks to disclose the market irrationality mechanism triggered by coal, a key inducement. We first establish an empirical framework to explore the relationship, which remains stable under instrumental variable regression and dual-factor moderating effect with extreme weather damage. Furthermore, we compare the mechanisms of China and the United States to furnish more empirical evidence. The results demonstrate that China’s renewable energy financing displays irrationality in signal transmission and market financing feedback, as well as the possible presence of market overreaction by analyzing the financing feedback during the occurrence and disappearance of fossil energy price shocks. The findings offer further policy operability for the theory of active government.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103251"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143104301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Media-based climate risks and international corporate bond market 基于媒体的气候风险与国际公司债券市场
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103260
Ramzi Benkraiem , Nebojsa Dimic , Vanja Piljak , Laurens Swinkels , Milos Vulanovic
{"title":"Media-based climate risks and international corporate bond market","authors":"Ramzi Benkraiem ,&nbsp;Nebojsa Dimic ,&nbsp;Vanja Piljak ,&nbsp;Laurens Swinkels ,&nbsp;Milos Vulanovic","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of the media-based climate risks, grouped into physical and transition risk categories, on the international corporate bond market in the period from 2012 to 2022. We analyze the following aspects: (i) market development (developed versus emerging markets); (ii) credit quality (investment grade versus high yield bonds), (iii) industry (climate-sensitive versus non-sensitive industries), and (iv) maturity (short versus long term bonds). We find that transition risk is reflected in the global corporate bond market, but not in the emerging corporate bond market segment. Furthermore, transition risk has a material impact only on the investment grade bonds in the global corporate bond market. The industry analysis reveals that there are no consistent significant differences between climate-sensitive and climate-insensitive industries. Maturity analysis indicates that transition risk is reflected in global corporate bond market returns for both short and long terms, but this effect is less pronounced in emerging markets. Physical risk is not systematically reflected in international corporate bond returns. The subsample analysis shows higher importance of transition climate risk following the Paris Agreement in December 2015.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103260"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143104297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate change and U.S. Corporate bond market activity: A machine learning approach 气候变化与美国公司债券市场活动：一种机器学习方法
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103259
Charilaos Mertzanis , Ilias Kampouris , Aristeidis Samitas
{"title":"Climate change and U.S. Corporate bond market activity: A machine learning approach","authors":"Charilaos Mertzanis ,&nbsp;Ilias Kampouris ,&nbsp;Aristeidis Samitas","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103259","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103259","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the predictive relationship between climate change indexes and international corporate debt market volumes, focusing on forecasting domestic and foreign net purchases of U.S. corporate bonds, using thirty machine learning models across different families of algorithms. Among these, Gaussian Process Regression models demonstrated superior accuracy in capturing complex patterns, highlighting the significance of climate change indexes as predictors of corporate bond market behaviors. NARX models and decision trees also performed well. However, machine learning predictive accuracy broadly outperforms traditional estimation methods, but varies across different regional markets and investor types. The findings underscore the need for integrating climate risk into financial analysis, advocating for sophisticated predictive models to better manage climate-related financial risks. These insights have significant implications for asset managers, issuers, and regulators, promoting a more holistic approach to managing these risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103259"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial crime and corporate social responsibility: Evidence from China 金融犯罪与企业社会责任：来自中国的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103258
Caiquan Bai , Huimin Wang , Qihang Xue , Yaping Zhao
{"title":"Financial crime and corporate social responsibility: Evidence from China","authors":"Caiquan Bai ,&nbsp;Huimin Wang ,&nbsp;Qihang Xue ,&nbsp;Yaping Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103258","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103258","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study uses criminal first-instance judgments of financial crimes published by China Judgments Online to construct an index of a city’s financial crime rate, focusing on the impact of financial crimes on corporate social responsibility (CSR). The higher the financial crime rate in a city where the firm is located is, the worse the firm’s CSR performance. The main reason for this phenomenon is that a higher city financial crime rate increases information asymmetry, intensifies financing constraints, and depresses investor sentiment. In addition, crimes that disrupt the management order of financial bills, deposits, and loans, as well as moderately severe financial crimes, have the greatest economic effects on CSR; internal and external corporate pressures play an important moderating role, reinforcing the impact of financial crime; and financial crime can damage corporate reputation through its impact on CSR.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103258"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Measuring systemic risk in Asian foreign exchange markets” [J. Int. Money Financ. 146 (2024) 103135] 外汇市场系统性风险的测度[J]。Int。财经，146 (2024)103135]
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103249
Yanghan Chen , Juan Lin
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Measuring systemic risk in Asian foreign exchange markets” [J. Int. Money Financ. 146 (2024) 103135]","authors":"Yanghan Chen ,&nbsp;Juan Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103249","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103249","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103249"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143104295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Misaligned currencies and economic growth: The role of global value chains 汇率失调与经济增长：全球价值链的作用
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103252
Shiu-Sheng Chen , Yao-Ting Huang , Tzu-Yu Lin
{"title":"Misaligned currencies and economic growth: The role of global value chains","authors":"Shiu-Sheng Chen ,&nbsp;Yao-Ting Huang ,&nbsp;Tzu-Yu Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103252","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103252","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the impact of global value chain (GVC) participation on the relationship between real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth. Employing a panel framework encompassing 183 countries from 1990 to 2019, we find that an undervalued real exchange rate is associated with higher economic growth. However, our analysis also reveals that increased GVC participation diminishes the positive effect of undervaluation on economic growth with moderate statistical significance. Consequently, the potential competitiveness gains from an undervalued currency might be offset by deeper integration into global production networks. It is worth noting that the empirical findings are most prominent for advanced economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103252"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143104299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geopolitical risk and U.S. foreign portfolio investment: A tale of advanced and emerging markets 地缘政治风险与美国海外证券投资：发达市场与新兴市场的故事
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103253
Sangyup Choi , Jiri Havel
{"title":"Geopolitical risk and U.S. foreign portfolio investment: A tale of advanced and emerging markets","authors":"Sangyup Choi ,&nbsp;Jiri Havel","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103253","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103253","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how U.S. portfolio investors react to the geopolitical risk in destination countries. First, we uncover significant heterogeneity between advanced and emerging market destinations: U.S. investment in foreign bonds and equities decreases only in response to heightened geopolitical risk in emerging markets, not in advanced markets. Second, we identify poor institutional quality and, to a lesser extent, closed capital markets in emerging market economies as the primary driver behind the larger sensitivity of portfolio investment to geopolitical risk. Third, we find a contagion effect that U.S. portfolio investment declines significantly in response to the heightened geopolitical risk in nearby countries even after controlling for the risk in the destination country. This contagion effect is confined to emerging markets, further highlighting the difference between advanced and emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103253"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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