Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献

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Tokenization: a potential pathway for Bitcoin’s future 代币化:比特币未来的潜在途径
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103492
Georgii Zvonka
{"title":"Tokenization: a potential pathway for Bitcoin’s future","authors":"Georgii Zvonka","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103492","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103492","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce tokenization as a way to upgrade Bitcoin and analyze how it affects Bitcoin’s value. The tokenization possibility explains Bitcoin’s current high valuation despite expectations that declining mining rewards will reduce security. We develop a new monetarist model with two monetary standards, network effects, and transaction costs from congestion and declining security. Without tokenization options, the model predicts a zero Bitcoin price given declining security. With tokenization, the transition may be delayed by trade-offs between network effects and congestion on Bitcoin’s blockchain versus those on a new monetary standard. As Bitcoin’s security declines, this balance shifts toward the new standard, generating equilibria where Bitcoin’s price rises with token adoption. Bitcoin-backed tokens already exist (e.g., WBTC), demonstrating practical feasibility, though empirical evidence reveals that trust in token issuers remains critical. To address this trust issue, we propose a simple soft-fork mechanism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103492"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sustainable regulation, stronger currencies: Evidence from capital flow dynamics 可持续监管,货币走强:来自资本流动动态的证据
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103531
Sining Liu , Wendi Huang
{"title":"Sustainable regulation, stronger currencies: Evidence from capital flow dynamics","authors":"Sining Liu ,&nbsp;Wendi Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences approach across 48 countries, we find that currencies with more stringent Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) regulations yield higher returns. The increase in currency returns stems from growth in net capital flows, which is primarily driven by a significant reduction in capital outflows, especially of portfolio investment. While changes in the ESG regulatory environment introduce uncertainty to the economy, investors value the alleviation of information opacity and, more significantly, the mitigation of ESG-related risks. Our findings highlight the potential of ESG regulation as an effective policy tool to enhance financial stability and attract capital by reducing perceived risk and information asymmetry in the international currency markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103531"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing financial risk in China: a text-based indicator approach 中国金融风险评估:基于文本的指标方法
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103514
Alexander Al-Haschimi , Apostolos Apostolou , Andres Azqueta-Gavaldon , Martino Ricci
{"title":"Assessing financial risk in China: a text-based indicator approach","authors":"Alexander Al-Haschimi ,&nbsp;Apostolos Apostolou ,&nbsp;Andres Azqueta-Gavaldon ,&nbsp;Martino Ricci","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103514","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103514","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the complexities and global repercussions of financial risk in China by developing a novel text-based financial risk indicator tailored to the Chinese context. We identify key themes such as <em>banking</em>, <em>financial markets</em>, <em>exchange rates</em>, <em>real estate</em>, <em>corporate profitability</em>, and <em>corporate investment</em>, which significantly influenced financial risk during critical periods like the 2015–16 financial stress episode and the 2021 Evergrande default. Utilizing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework, we analyze the impact of the aggregated financial risk indicator on both the Chinese and the global economy. Our findings reveal that heightened financial risk in China correlates with a drop in equity prices and has substantial global repercussions, including contractions in world industrial production, declines in global oil prices, and widened emerging market government bond spreads.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103514"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146189386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stablecoins and short-term funding markets 稳定币和短期融资市场
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103469
Jean Barthélemy , Paul Gardin , Benoit Nguyen
{"title":"Stablecoins and short-term funding markets","authors":"Jean Barthélemy ,&nbsp;Paul Gardin ,&nbsp;Benoit Nguyen","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103469","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103469","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid growth of stablecoins–crypto-assets aimed at maintaining a stable value–has generated a sizable demand for short-term dollar-denominated assets. Stablecoin issuers hold these assets to back their tokens and manage their peg. This paper shows that an increase in the demand for stablecoin tokens caused additional commercial paper (CP) issuance, when tokens were backed by CP. This suggests CP issuers catered to the demand emanating from stablecoins’ backing. Our results highlight a new and more general link between crypto-assets, conventional financial markets, and short-term debt issuers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103469"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145625363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in public debt consolidation: the role of fiscal rules and inflation targeting 公共债务整合中的货币-财政政策互动:财政规则和通胀目标制的作用
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103510
Yunhan Zhang , Zhixin Liu , Hao Jin
{"title":"Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in public debt consolidation: the role of fiscal rules and inflation targeting","authors":"Yunhan Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhixin Liu ,&nbsp;Hao Jin","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103510","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103510","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how the interactions of monetary and fiscal policy affect the consolidation of public debt. Using data across 86 countries from 1982 to 2021 and a debt decomposition framework, we find that the adoption of inflation targeting significantly strengthens the role of primary surplus on debt consolidation, whereas the joint implementation of fiscal rules and inflation targeting further increases the relative contribution of primary surplus in debt consolidation while weakening the relative contribution of inflation. We employ a New Keynesian model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions to reconcile the empirical findings. In addition, counterfactual analyses show that the U.S. debt consolidation from 1994 to 2001 would rely more on inflation and result in worse welfare outcomes if fiscal policy dominates or if policies lack coordination.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103510"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risk retention in the European securitization market: Skimmed by the skin-in-the-game methods? 欧洲证券化市场的风险自留:被参与博弈的方法所忽略?
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103512
Vivian M. van Breemen , Claudia Schwarz , Dennis Vink , Frank J. Fabozzi
{"title":"Risk retention in the European securitization market: Skimmed by the skin-in-the-game methods?","authors":"Vivian M. van Breemen ,&nbsp;Claudia Schwarz ,&nbsp;Dennis Vink ,&nbsp;Frank J. Fabozzi","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103512","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103512","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We empirically investigated the impact of regulatory risk retention methods on credit ratings and pricing at issuance using a sample of European securitization tranches issued from 2011 to 2021. European regulation assumes that all risk retention methods homogenously align incentives and interests between originators and investors. We investigated the impact of these methods on the pricing of securitization tranches. We found that investors adjust the risk premium at issuance for tranches based on different risk retention methods. We also found that credit ratings (discrepancy) differed depending on the risk retention method. Finally, we gained a deeper insight into the risk retention methods chosen over time. We concluded that originators consider deal complexity and capital relief characteristics when selecting a specific method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103512"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions: What can we learn from crises and recoveries between 1990 and 2022? 全球冲击、制度发展和贸易限制:我们能从1990年至2022年的危机和复苏中学到什么?
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103504
Joshua Aizenman , Hiro Ito , Donghyun Park , Jamel Saadaoui , Gazi Salah Uddin
{"title":"Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions: What can we learn from crises and recoveries between 1990 and 2022?","authors":"Joshua Aizenman ,&nbsp;Hiro Ito ,&nbsp;Donghyun Park ,&nbsp;Jamel Saadaoui ,&nbsp;Gazi Salah Uddin","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103504","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103504","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century. In this study, we analyze the patterns of recessions and recoveries of 101 advanced and developing economies. We identify the turning points of recessions and expansions between 1990 and 2022, and perform cross-country analysis of domestic and external drivers of economic recovery. In addition to the standard independent variables, we include institutional development, political stability, the extent of democracy, and trade restrictions indexes, and explore their roles in explaining recessions and recovery patterns. For the whole sample, we find that deeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries, in line with Friedman’s plucking model of the business cycle. However, the empirical evidence for the plucking model becomes weaker if institutional development is limited and trade restrictions are high. We show that recessions that create conflict and trade tensions differ sharply from those that do not, a relevant finding in the current global climate of heightened trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. Finally, since developing countries tend to have weaker institutions and higher trade barriers, our evidence suggests that countercyclical monetary and fiscal policy will have to play a bigger role in cushioning global shocks in those countries. This, in turn, requires more robust and credible monetary and fiscal policy frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103504"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145748022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
In search of the origin of original sin dissipation 寻找原罪的起源消散
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103532
Bada Han , Taehee Oh , Jangyoun Lee
{"title":"In search of the origin of original sin dissipation","authors":"Bada Han ,&nbsp;Taehee Oh ,&nbsp;Jangyoun Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103532","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103532","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we examine how, contrary to the ‘original sin’ hypothesis, emerging market economies have gained the ability to borrow abroad in their local currency. We empirically analyze the relationship between various economic variables and local currency debt and identify three crucial conditions for the capacity to borrow in local currency: institutional quality, sufficient depth in the domestic bond market, and adequate performance in inflation targeting. While trade and financial openness, as well as shares in JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Index also appear to be influential, their associations with local currency debt are less clear. We conduct a similar empirical analysis on portfolio equity, which represents a safer form of external liability than foreign currency debt, and verify that the depth of the equity market plays a key role in attracting foreign capital to domestic equity markets. Finally, we propose a simple portfolio model based on the inelastic market hypothesis to explain the positive correlation between capital market depth and the dissipation of original sin, which refers to the presence of more external liability in the form of equity or local currency debt. In essence, our analysis suggests that emerging market economies with reasonably strong fundamentals are not necessarily reliant on foreign currency debt.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103532"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public spending, private gains: the gendered impact of exogenous fiscal policy shocks 公共支出、私人收益:外生财政政策冲击的性别影响
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103527
João Jalles , John Beirne , Donghyun Park , Gazi Salah Uddin
{"title":"Public spending, private gains: the gendered impact of exogenous fiscal policy shocks","authors":"João Jalles ,&nbsp;John Beirne ,&nbsp;Donghyun Park ,&nbsp;Gazi Salah Uddin","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103527","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103527","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the gender-specific effects of exogenous public spending shocks across a global sample, using a novel identification strategy and local projections. We distinguish between investment and consumption shocks and further decompose spending by function—education, health, and social protection. Public investment shocks generally reduce female labor force participation but increase wage shares and lower maternal mortality. Consumption shocks also lower participation but raise service-sector employment and tertiary enrolment in the short term. Functionally, education spending delays labor force entry but improves wages and enrolment; health spending boosts agricultural employment but may initially increase maternal mortality; and social protection stabilizes rural employment while reducing overall participation. Nonlinear analyses reveal strong heterogeneity by income level, initial gender inequality, and labor informality. For example, investment boosts female employment in poorer EMDEs but reinforces participation gaps in richer ones. These results highlight the need for gender-responsive fiscal frameworks tailored to structural conditions, and show that fiscal design—not just scale—shapes inclusive development outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103527"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exchange rate regime flexibility and firms’ employment 汇率制度灵活性与企业就业
IF 3.3 2区 经济学
Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103487
Silvio Contessi , Qingyuan Du , Deting Gao , Lei Pan , Shenxiang Xie
{"title":"Exchange rate regime flexibility and firms’ employment","authors":"Silvio Contessi ,&nbsp;Qingyuan Du ,&nbsp;Deting Gao ,&nbsp;Lei Pan ,&nbsp;Shenxiang Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103487","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103487","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how exchange rate regime flexibility impacts the allocation of labor across firms. Specifically, we investigate how differences in labor-intensity or capital-intensity in production affect employment decisions under various degrees of exchange rate regime flexibility. In a simple theoretical model, we show that firms utilizing more labor-intensive production technologies are more likely to expand their employment when the exchange rate they face becomes less flexible. In contrast, firms employing more capital-intensive technology tend to hire more workers when the exchange rate is more flexible. We test our theory using granular firm-level data from China and provide robust evidence supporting the theoretical predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103487"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145694232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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