Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献_第5页

Exploring the informativeness and drivers of tone during committee meetings: The case of the Federal Reserve 探讨委员会会议期间的信息量和语气驱动因素：以美联储为例

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103161

Hamza Bennani , Davide Romelli

引用次数: 0

What leads some countries to experience larger decreases in foreign flows during low-flow episodes? Evidence from international portfolio flows 是什么导致一些国家在低流量事件中的外国流量下降幅度更大？国际投资组合流动的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103165

Xichen Wang , Xiaomei Duan

引用次数: 0

Debt shocks and the dynamics of output and inflation in emerging economies 债务冲击与新兴经济体的产出和通胀动态

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103167

John Beirne , Nuobu Renzhi

引用次数: 0

The performance of emerging markets during the Fed’s easing and tightening cycles: A cross-country resilience analysis 新兴市场在美联储宽松和紧缩周期中的表现：跨国弹性分析

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103169

Joshua Aizenman , Donghyun Park , Irfan A. Qureshi , Jamel Saadaoui , Gazi Salah Uddin

{"title":"The performance of emerging markets during the Fed’s easing and tightening cycles: A cross-country resilience analysis","authors":"Joshua Aizenman , Donghyun Park , Irfan A. Qureshi , Jamel Saadaoui , Gazi Salah Uddin","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103169","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103169","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate the determinants of emerging markets performance during five U.S. Federal Reserve monetary tightening and easing cycles during 2004–2023. We study how macroeconomic and institutional conditions of an Emerging Market (EM) at the beginning of a cycle explain EM resilience during each cycle. More specifically, our baseline cross-sectional regressions examine how those conditions affect three measures of resilience, namely bilateral exchange rate against the USD, exchange rate market pressure, and country-specific Morgan Stanley Capital International index (MSCI). We then stack the five cross-sections to build a panel database to investigate potential asymmetry between tightening versus easing cycles. Our evidence indicates that macroeconomic and institutional variables are associated with EM performance, determinants of resilience differ during tightening versus easing cycles, and institutions matter more during difficult times. Our specific findings are largely consistent with economic intuition. For instance, we find that current account balance, international reserves, and inflation are all important determinants of EM resilience.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103169"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142050104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do FX interventions lead to higher FX debt? Evidence from firm-level data 外汇干预会导致外汇债务增加吗？来自企业层面数据的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103160

Minsuk Kim, Rui C. Mano, Mico Mrkaic

引用次数: 0

The financial accelerator, wages, and optimal monetary policy 金融加速器、工资和最优货币政策

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103162

Tobias König

引用次数: 0

Confidence spillovers, financial contagion, and stagnation 信心溢出效应、金融传染和停滞

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103163

Konstantin Platonov

{"title":"Confidence spillovers, financial contagion, and stagnation","authors":"Konstantin Platonov","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103163","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103163","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Financial crises tend to spread across countries, causing equity price crashes that cannot be fully explained by fundamentals. This paper introduces a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model of global financial crises that distinguishes between interdependence and financial contagion. Interdependence arises through trade and capital flows, while contagion occurs through a new channel: confidence spillovers. In the model, contagion is possible due to multiple dynamic and steady-state equilibria, even with fully rational consumers. Self-fulfilling beliefs about equity prices can shift the economy between equilibria, amplifying negative effects and causing contagion. The model has three policy implications. Firstly, monetary policy can offset recessions without causing inflation. Coordinated international policy can potentially improve welfare further. Secondly, capital controls can prevent contagion. Lastly, increased trust in government can mitigate negative confidence shocks. These recommendations emphasize the role of beliefs, where pessimism can spread internationally via the confidence channel, leading to contagion.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103163"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001505/pdfft?md5=c08d462c79d67f834076c0d8d3c419a8&pid=1-s2.0-S0261560624001505-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142006980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An unconventional FX tail risk story 非传统外汇尾部风险故事

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103152

Carlos Cañon , Eddie Gerba , Alberto Pambira , Evarist Stoja

引用次数: 0

Exchange rate dynamics and the central bank's balance sheet 汇率动态和中央银行的资产负债表

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103156

Guillermo Gallacher , Camilo Granados , Janelle Mann

{"title":"Exchange rate dynamics and the central bank's balance sheet","authors":"Guillermo Gallacher , Camilo Granados , Janelle Mann","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103156","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103156","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Are nominal exchange rate variations linked to the central bank's balance sheet, in particular to remunerated domestic liabilities? We use two metrics of implied exchange rates based on central bank balance sheet data: one is a traditional metric that includes the monetary base, and the other adds remunerated domestic liabilities. We first estimate a VAR model to investigate the endogenous interactions between central bank balance sheet components for a set of seven Latin American countries for the 2006:01-2019:12 period. Then, we use a pairwise cointegration framework to compare these two metrics of implied exchange rate with the spot (observed) exchange rate. We find that the implied exchange rates and the spot exchange rate are cointegrated for most of the set of Latin American countries. We also find that for a subset of our sample, the spot exchange rate adjusts to the metric that adds remunerated domestic liabilities. We conclude that remunerated domestic liabilities matter for understanding exchange rate dynamics, and explore a simple theoretical setup to better understand the mechanism.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103156"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142006981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can rising urban house prices actually limit the outward FDI by firms in a home country? A story from China 城市房价上涨是否真的会限制母国企业的对外直接投资？来自中国的故事

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103164

Feng Yu , Ning Li , Castiel Chen Zhuang , Jingwei Chen

{"title":"Can rising urban house prices actually limit the outward FDI by firms in a home country? A story from China","authors":"Feng Yu , Ning Li , Castiel Chen Zhuang , Jingwei Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103164","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103164","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate the effects of rising urban house prices on manufacturing firms’ decisions on outward foreign direct investment (outward FDI) in a home country. By utilizing the panel data of Chinese industrial enterprises in 2005–2013, our estimates suggest that, for every 210 manufacturing firms or 13 listed companies in China, one firm will forgo outward FDI when house prices double. As a result, there could have been 95 percent more manufacturing firms or 70 percent more listed firms conducting outward FDI if house prices remained unchanged during the study period. To address potential endogeneity issues, we exploit a fixed-effects instrumental variable model, a difference-in-differences strategy, and housing discontinuities at provincial borders among neighboring city/county pairs. To elucidate potential mechanisms, we employ the “Olley and Pakes” covariance to assess resource allocation efficiency and observe its negative correlation with house prices. Furthermore, we delve into the impact of house prices and resource allocation efficiency on TFP, and find that house prices and TFP are negatively correlated, while resource allocation efficiency and TFP are positively correlated. Finally, heterogeneity analyses reveal that rising house prices exert a stronger negative influence on outward FDI entry for firms that are less productive, larger, domestically-owned, more closely linked to the real estate industry, labor-intensive, and in industries with higher levels of outward FDI participation. These results underscore the fact that rising house prices could exacerbate resource misallocation, leading to a decline in enterprise TFP and subsequently reducing their outward FDI.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 103164"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0