Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献_第4页

Fiscal rules in monetary union: insights from Europe for the PRC 货币联盟中的财政规则：欧洲对中国的启示

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103502

Barry Eichengreen , Akiko Terada-Hagiwara , Yothin Jinjarak

引用次数: 0

The trade-inflation nexus: The role of production networks 贸易-通货膨胀关系：生产网络的作用

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103484

Thuy Hang Duong , Weifeng Larry Liu

引用次数: 0

Exchange rate, foreign currency debt and firm-level investment 汇率、外币债务和企业层面的投资

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103475

Qingyuan Du , Shengjie Hong , Yao Wang , Yaqi Wang

引用次数: 0

The risk sensitivity of global liquidity flows: Heterogeneity, evolution and drivers 全球流动性流动的风险敏感性：异质性、演化与驱动因素

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103465

Stefan Avdjiev , Leonardo Gambacorta , Linda S. Goldberg , Stefano Schiaffi

引用次数: 0

Dynamic effects of fiscal rules: Do initial conditions Matter? 财政规则的动态效应：初始条件重要吗？

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103499

Antonio Fatás , Bram Gootjes , Joseph Mawejje

{"title":"Dynamic effects of fiscal rules: Do initial conditions Matter?","authors":"Antonio Fatás , Bram Gootjes , Joseph Mawejje","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103499","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103499","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fiscal rules have been shown to support fiscal discipline by improving government budget balances and restraining the growth of debt. However, questions remain about what enhances their effectiveness and how certain conditions help to build the credibility needed for their survival and success. Using data from 116 countries between 1984 and 2015, this paper studies the dynamic effects of fiscal rule adoption. It shows that although fiscal rules generally improve the cyclically adjusted primary balance, their effects depend on the time horizon under consideration and the context of adoption. In advanced economies and countries with strong political institutions, the effects strengthen over time. Conversely, in emerging markets and developing economies—especially those with weaker institutions—their impact tends to fade as time passes. The findings highlight the critical role of economic conditions and consensus building at the time of adoption. Specifically, fiscal rules introduced in times of economic hardship or under highly concentrated political power are often less effective in the medium term. Good design of fiscal rules is important, but it is no silver bullet.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103499"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145747969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A quasi-experiment in monetary policy: The impact of unexpected easing on inflation expectations and firm behavior 货币政策的准实验：意外宽松对通胀预期和企业行为的影响

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103533

Okan Akarsu , Emrehan Aktuğ , Altan Aldan , Ünal Seven

{"title":"A quasi-experiment in monetary policy: The impact of unexpected easing on inflation expectations and firm behavior","authors":"Okan Akarsu , Emrehan Aktuğ , Altan Aldan , Ünal Seven","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103533","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103533","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper leverages a rare quasi-experiment—the unexpected September 2021 interest rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye—to examine how inflation expectations shape firm behavior in a high-inflation environment. Drawing on a rich dataset that combines monthly survey responses with administrative records, we exploit the heterogeneous revisions in firms’ inflation expectations triggered by the policy shock. Firms that significantly increased their inflation forecasts (treated) subsequently became more pessimistic about economic conditions, reduced employment, and curbed domestic sales. At the same time, they strategically raised procurement, acquired more foreign currency assets, and boosted borrowing in local currency—even at higher costs—in anticipation of debt erosion. These patterns suggest that firms’ heightened inflation expectations drive both defensive and opportunistic behaviors, ranging from hedging against currency depreciation to locking in lower financing costs. Overall, the findings highlight the critical role of inflation expectations in guiding firm-level decisions and document the importance of policy credibility in volatile macroeconomic settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103533"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146079222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital safeguards in trade wars: assessing the impact of China’s CBEC pilot zone on global supply chain resilience 贸易战中的数字保障：评估中国CBEC试验区对全球供应链弹性的影响

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103529

Haoyuan Ding , Daming Huang , Zida Li , Xingyu Lu

引用次数: 0

Beyond borders: spillover effects of US monetary policy on the financial stress of emerging market economies 超越国界：美国货币政策对新兴市场经济体金融压力的溢出效应

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103500

Aariya Sen , Rudra Sensarma

{"title":"Beyond borders: spillover effects of US monetary policy on the financial stress of emerging market economies","authors":"Aariya Sen , Rudra Sensarma","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103500","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103500","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Greater integration among world economies have made Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) susceptible to actions of developed countries. While the literature has studied cross-border ramifications of monetary policy decisions, the effects on financial stress and the role of policy independence of the domestic economies have been ignored. We examine the spillover effects of the US Fed’s monetary policy, including Unconventional Monetary Policy (UMP) episodes, on financial stress of EMEs. We also explore the role of EMEs’ monetary policy independence by examining whether the spillover effects are moderated by the responsiveness of an EME’s interest rates to that of the US. We analyse the impact of the US Monetary Policy Shocks (MPS) on the financial stress and monetary independence of 18 EMEs during 2008–2021. The results from Pooled Mean Group estimation reveal that Fed monetary tightening is associated with higher financial stress of EMEs. Furthermore, monetary independence of the EMEs provide a buffer from these spillover effects. These findings underscore the importance of EMEs recognizing the spillover effects of global shocks on their financial markets and the need to safeguard themselves through appropriate institutional design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103500"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

FOEs and the transmission of US monetary policy shocks: Evidence from China 敌人与美国货币政策冲击的传导：来自中国的证据

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103497

Yuanyuan Li , Xun Wang , Jingwen Yu

{"title":"FOEs and the transmission of US monetary policy shocks: Evidence from China","authors":"Yuanyuan Li , Xun Wang , Jingwen Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103497","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103497","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transmission mechanisms of global liquidity shocks have garnered significant attention, particularly in the context of emerging market economies. This study contributes to this literature by empirically examining a novel household income channel through which foreign-owned enterprises (FOEs) propagate US monetary policy shocks to host countries. Leveraging a large Chinese individual-level survey dataset, we uncover a hitherto understudied mechanism linking external monetary tightening to income dynamics in the private sector. Tightening US monetary policy shocks exhibit a significantly larger contractionary effect on individuals employed in FOEs relative to those in non-FOEs. These spillover effects are more pronounced for individuals working in industries with greater external financial dependence and in provinces with less developed financial sector. Moreover, the income dampening effect of US monetary policy shocks through FOEs affects household consumption, and households with greater financing constraints are more prominently affected. Our paper provides new insights into how FOEs act as transmission intermediaries for external liquidity shocks, affecting the host country’s economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103497"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145748021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global trade network and the cross-section of international stock market returns 全球贸易网络与国际股票市场收益的横截面

IF 3.3 2区经济学

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103507

Tong Fang , Peng Liu , Zhi Su

引用次数: 0