Journal of Peace Research最新文献_第8页

Predicting armed conflict using protest data 利用抗议数据预测武装冲突

1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231186452

Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Håvard Hegre, Maxine Leis

引用次数: 2

‘Those MONUSCO agents left while we were still pregnant’: Accountability and support for peacekeeper-fathered children in the DRC “联刚稳定团人员在我们怀孕时就离开了”:对刚果民主共和国维和人员生下的孩子的问责和支持

1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231168182

Heather Tasker, Katie van der Werf, Annie Bunting, Susan A Bartels

{"title":"‘Those MONUSCO agents left while we were still pregnant’: Accountability and support for peacekeeper-fathered children in the DRC","authors":"Heather Tasker, Katie van der Werf, Annie Bunting, Susan A Bartels","doi":"10.1177/00223433231168182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231168182","url":null,"abstract":"The Democratic Republic of Congo hosts the longest-running and largest United Nations peacekeeping mission in history. The United Nations also has reckoned with sexual exploitation and abuse in its own ranks and, in 2003, recognized its importance with a Bulletin which became known as the ‘zero tolerance policy’. Policymakers and researchers have paid little sustained attention, however, to children fathered by peacekeepers. In this article, we share the results of our mixed-methods SenseMaker® research with community members who interact with peacekeeping personnel and interviews with 58 women who are raising children fathered by peacekeepers. Despite the United Nations policies in place, most women did not report children fathered by peacekeepers and did not receive systematic support. The analysis reveals a large gap between the aspirations of the ‘zero tolerance policy’ and its operationalization in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We uncovered deep poverty and insecurity as both driving and resulting from women’s sexual encounters with peacekeepers, with support needs largely unmet. We argue that there is a lack of enforcement of the United Nations policies, jurisdictional complexity and inaccessible justice, as well as significant gaps between the United Nations’ approach to investigating and supporting children fathered by peacekeepers and the expectations of mothers, resulting in worsened life conditions for mothers and their children.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135537404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Butterfly effects in global trade: International borders, disputes, and trade disruption and diversion 全球贸易中的蝴蝶效应:国际边界、争端、贸易中断和转移

1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231180928

Ryan Brutger, Tim Marple

{"title":"Butterfly effects in global trade: International borders, disputes, and trade disruption and diversion","authors":"Ryan Brutger, Tim Marple","doi":"10.1177/00223433231180928","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231180928","url":null,"abstract":"This article theorizes and tests how different types of interstate conflict across borders affect trade between disputing parties and trade diversion with third parties. Building on theories of borders as institutions, we differentiate the effects of two types of international disputes – border disputes and escalated militarized disputes – and draw on 60 years of trade and conflict data to test the effects of these disputes on bilateral and third-party trade flows. We find that border disputes and militarized disputes each depress trade flows between the disputing countries. However, legal border disputes are associated with increased trade diversion with non-disputing countries, which may fully offset the forgone bilateral trade, whereas militarized disputes have the opposite effect. These results show that actors engaged in trade can offset bilateral trade losses from a border dispute by expanding trade with third parties not involved in the dispute, but the same cannot be said of offsetting the losses from militarized disputes. The fact that border disputes and militarized disputes have opposite effects on trade diversion highlights the importance of examining both the type of dispute and the type of trade flows that are affected when studying conflict and trade and evaluating the potentially pacifying incentives of international trade.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135816851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Political elite cues and attitude formation in post-conflict contexts 冲突后背景下的政治精英线索与态度形成

1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231168189

Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Miguel García-Sánchez, Aila M Matanock

{"title":"Political elite cues and attitude formation in post-conflict contexts","authors":"Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Miguel García-Sánchez, Aila M Matanock","doi":"10.1177/00223433231168189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231168189","url":null,"abstract":"Civil conflicts typically end with negotiated settlements, but many settlements fail, often during the implementation stage when average citizens have increasing influence. Citizens sometimes evaluate peace agreements by voting on referendums or the negotiating leaders, and, almost always, they decide whether to cooperate. Yet, despite their role, we do not know much about how citizens form attitudes toward peace agreements. In this article, we assess how citizens form attitudes toward settlements, specifically the policy provisions that emerge from them, which are central in shaping the post-conflict context. These are complex policy changes, involving deeply factionalized actors, and the citizens evaluating them are often focused on rebuilding their lives. We therefore theorize that citizens use stark cues from political elites with whom they have affinity to form their attitudes. We test our theory using survey experiments in Colombia. We find that citizens rely on political elites’ cues to decide their stance on the settlement’s provisions. These cues appear to supply easily-accessible information that respondents use over other information. In contrast to work positing that peace agreements are exceptional and weary citizens are stabilizing forces, our results suggest that even these decisions are politics as usual, where divisions among political elites drive the outcome.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"128 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135864181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do UN peace operations help forcibly displaced people? 联合国和平行动是否帮助了被迫流离失所者?

1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231186448

Stefano Costalli, Jessica Di Salvatore, Andrea Ruggeri

{"title":"Do UN peace operations help forcibly displaced people?","authors":"Stefano Costalli, Jessica Di Salvatore, Andrea Ruggeri","doi":"10.1177/00223433231186448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231186448","url":null,"abstract":"Do UN missions reduce forced displacement? Facing insecure environments, civilians are left with three choices: staying; moving to a safer community; or moving outside their country. Their aspiration and ability to move depend on individual characteristics and macro-level factors, such as the social, economic and political context in which these people live. Research shows that UN missions can impact and reset the macro-level context altered by war, especially in the security and economic domain. However, we lack empirical evidence on whether this impact helps UN peacekeeping tackle forced displacement and returns. This article offers the first global analysis of whether and how UN missions can shape aggregate population movements during civil wars. We combine data on outflows and returns of refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs) with data on distinct UN missions’ features that we expect to affect population movements, namely the size of their contingents and their mandated tasks. Using matched samples, we find that the unfolding of the outflows and inflows processes are affected by different features of UN missions. Sizeable deployments decrease IDPs flows and encourage their return; refugee outflows, on the other hand, may increase in presence of UN missions. Furthermore, missions with displacement-related mandates are associated with decreasing IDP flows overall, but only encourage refugees’ returns.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136314294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The military before the march: Civil-military grand bargains and the emergence of nonviolent resistance in autocracies 游行前的军队：军民大交易和独裁政权中非暴力抵抗的出现

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231180921

Risa Brooks, Peter B White

{"title":"The military before the march: Civil-military grand bargains and the emergence of nonviolent resistance in autocracies","authors":"Risa Brooks, Peter B White","doi":"10.1177/00223433231180921","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231180921","url":null,"abstract":"This article contributes to growing efforts to explain when nonviolent resistance campaigns emerge in autocratic regimes. Building from a novel framework for distinguishing civil-military relations in autocracies, it contends that regimes in which military and political leaders engage in a ‘grand bargain’ generate opportunity structures that are especially amenable to nonviolent resistance. Militaries in these regimes exhibit distinctive characteristics – they are corporate, cohesive institutions as opposed to fragmented in structure and also wield political influence in regime institutions. Consequently, these militaries are especially inclined to care about their societal reputations and to retain their institutional independence from the regime’s political leaders. These factors together can lessen expectations among activists that the military will repress protests and increase the odds of elite splits in the face of mass movements. They also render the military more receptive to nonviolent protest tactics. We operationalize the concept of grand bargains with indicators from three datasets on civil-military relations and autocratic regimes. We then test the argument quantitatively using data on the onset of nonviolent resistance campaigns, as well as events-level data on nonviolent resistance campaigns. The findings support claims that civil-military grand bargains make nonviolent resistance in autocracies more likely, contributing to scholarship on this vital topic.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47531159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Repression, backlash, and the duration of protests in Africa 镇压、反弹和非洲抗议活动的持续时间

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231186449

Jacob S. Lewis, Brandon Ives

{"title":"Repression, backlash, and the duration of protests in Africa","authors":"Jacob S. Lewis, Brandon Ives","doi":"10.1177/00223433231186449","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231186449","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates the relationship between recent repression of protest and the duration of future protests. A rich scholarship examines how repression impacts dissent, highlighting dissent dimensions such as the number of future events and violent escalation. Less examined is another dimension of dissent – protest duration. We hypothesize that recent repression of protests is pivotal for longer duration of future protest events. Our expectation stems from a participant type mechanism. Recent repression of protest may generate more societal grievances but also increase protesting risks. A simultaneous jump in grievances and risks may increase the number of people protesting who are also risk-acceptant and willing to protest for longer durations. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project data and hierarchal negative binomial models are used to estimate the association between recent repression of protest and subsequent protest duration. Compared to having none of the most recent three protests repressed, a protest in a location where the last three protests were repressed has a substantively longer duration. The results are consistent with the participant type mechanism and existing literature on repression’s heterogeneous effects on individuals.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48235226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Leader similarity and international conflict 领导者相似性与国际冲突

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231186446

Matthew D. DiLorenzo, Bryan Rooney

{"title":"Leader similarity and international conflict","authors":"Matthew D. DiLorenzo, Bryan Rooney","doi":"10.1177/00223433231186446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231186446","url":null,"abstract":"Scholars increasingly emphasize personal biographical characteristics of leaders in explaining patterns of foreign policy behavior. This article extends insights from this agenda to study how (dis)similarities in the background characteristics of leaders at the dyadic level shape international conflict outcomes. Trust and uncertainty are central to explaining conflict via their connections to commitment- and information-related causes of war. Psychological research provides evidence that perceived similarities between individuals and groups can foment trust and cooperation. We hypothesize that leaders who share more similar backgrounds and life experiences form stronger social bonds and are more trusting of one another. As such, leaders who have more in common with one another should be able to better manage diplomatic disputes and avoid conflict. We test this hypothesis using a new measure of dyadic-leader-level similarity created with the Leader Experience and Attribute Descriptions (LEAD) dataset and data on international conflict onset in politically relevant dyads throughout the period 1946–2004. We find that pairs of leaders with more similar backgrounds are significantly less likely to experience militarized interstate disputes at all levels of hostility even after accounting for a variety of observable and unobservable determinants of conflict. The findings contribute to our understanding of the determinants of international conflict and help advance research on linkages between psychological and rationalist approaches to studying conflict.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42319412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

State violence and participation in transitional justice: Evidence from Colombia 国家暴力和参与过渡时期司法：来自哥伦比亚的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-09-03 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231180924

Elsa Voytas, Benjamin Crisman

{"title":"State violence and participation in transitional justice: Evidence from Colombia","authors":"Elsa Voytas, Benjamin Crisman","doi":"10.1177/00223433231180924","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231180924","url":null,"abstract":"Can the legacy of state violence undermine participation in transitional justice services designed to consolidate peace after conflict? We argue that, in the aftermath of armed fighting, state-perpetrated violence leads to reduced uptake of government reconciliation policies. We leverage spatial and temporal variation in levels of civilian victimization by perpetrator and find that, in contrast to violence committed by non-state groups, violence carried out by state forces against civilians is associated with lower levels of enlistment in Colombia’s state-run victims’ registry. We replicate this relationship using survey data and present evidence linking victimization by the state to lower levels of trust in the government overall. Together, our analyses demonstrate that disaggregating the identity of armed actors can provide significant theoretical and empirical advances in our understanding of peacemaking and post-conflict reconstruction. In the Colombian case, the legacy of state violence leads to the systematic exclusion of certain types of victims from transitional justice and undermines trust in the institutions responsible for building durable pathways to peace. Consequently, our findings have implications for the design of transitional justice policies, the study of the legacies of conflict on political and social outcomes, and processes of post-conflict peacebuilding.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47548713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Nationalist propaganda and support for war in an authoritarian context: Evidence from China 威权背景下的民族主义宣传和对战争的支持:来自中国的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-08-13 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231178849

Dongshu Liu, L. Shao

{"title":"Nationalist propaganda and support for war in an authoritarian context: Evidence from China","authors":"Dongshu Liu, L. Shao","doi":"10.1177/00223433231178849","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231178849","url":null,"abstract":"How can autocrats boost public support for wars? Previous studies have suggested that in democracies, the public changes its war attitude either through rational cost–benefit calculations or simply by following cues from political elites. This article argues that autocrats can follow a similar logic to manipulate public support for war via nationalist propaganda. Based on two online survey experiments with textual and musical propaganda materials in mainland China, this article finds that nationalist propaganda bolsters public support for war, regarding a potential military conflict across the Taiwan Strait. Evidence shows that propaganda increases respondents’ expected return on winning wars, arousing national pride, and reducing respondents’ sensitivity to war costs. However, people’s confidence in winning a given war remains unchanged. These findings suggest that nationalist propaganda can boost support for war by increasing the perceived benefits of the war and reducing their sensitivity toward war costs without changing their perceived probability of winning. It also demonstrates that nationalist propaganda does not need to be explicit about war in order to boost war support in autocracies. This study also reveals the changing dynamic of public opinions in China regarding war for unification over the Taiwan Strait, which has significant implications for security and geopolitics in East Asia.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48740499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0