Journal of Peace Research最新文献_第9页

Revisiting the puzzle of endogenous nuclear proliferation 重新审视内生核扩散之谜

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-08-13 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231177727

Azusa Katagiri

{"title":"Revisiting the puzzle of endogenous nuclear proliferation","authors":"Azusa Katagiri","doi":"10.1177/00223433231177727","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231177727","url":null,"abstract":"Nuclear proliferation literature typically differentiates supply-side and demand-side factors influencing the spread of nuclear weapons. These distinct approaches to the proliferation puzzle raise the following empirical questions: Does nuclear supply stimulate states’ demand for nuclear weapons? Conversely, does the demand for nuclear weapons really facilitate the acquisition of nuclear supply? If such endogeneity exists between the demand-side and supply-side determinants, how would it cause empirical bias in the estimation of their effects on nuclear proliferation? This article aims to unpack endogenous mechanisms of nuclear demand and nuclear supply over the course of nuclear proliferation. In particular, it examines two potential sources of endogeneity: (1) simultaneous interactions between states’ nuclear development decisions and nuclear technological capability and (2) selection bias in nuclear development. To address each source of endogeneity, simultaneous equation models and the duration models with selection are estimated, respectively. Contrary to what recent supply-side literature suggests, the empirical analyses reveal that states’ nuclear demand is primarily driven by external security threats instead of their existing nuclear technology, and that their successful acquisition of nuclear technology mainly follows as the result of nuclear development efforts but does not necessarily depend on individual supply-side factors. This article addresses the typical inference issues in nuclear proliferation research and contributes to our synthetic understanding of proliferation mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43770503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Introducing the Mapping Attitudes, Perceptions and Support (MAPS) dataset on the Colombian peace process 介绍关于哥伦比亚和平进程的测绘态度、看法和支持数据集

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-07-17 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231178848

Michael Weintraub, A. Steele, Sebastián Pantoja-Barrios, H. Nygård, Marianne Dahl, H. M. Binningsbø

引用次数: 3

Episodes of regime transformation 政权转变的片段

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231168192

Seraphine F. Maerz, Amanda B. Edgell, M. Wilson, S. Hellmeier, Staffan I. Lindberg

{"title":"Episodes of regime transformation","authors":"Seraphine F. Maerz, Amanda B. Edgell, M. Wilson, S. Hellmeier, Staffan I. Lindberg","doi":"10.1177/00223433231168192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231168192","url":null,"abstract":"This article provides a new conceptualization of regime transformation that allows scholars to address democratization and autocratization as related but obverse processes. We introduce a dataset that captures 680 episodes of regime transformation (ERT) from 1900 to 2019 and offers novel insights into regime change over the past 120 years. The ERT has three main advantages over other approaches. First, it avoids problematic assumptions of unit homogeneity and constant as well as symmetric effects. Second, it integrates key insights from qualitative studies by treating regime change as a gradual and uncertain process. Third, the ERT is based on a unified framework for studying regime transformation in either direction. The dataset differentiates between four broad types of regime transformation: liberalization in autocracies, democratic deepening in democracies, and autocratization in both democracies and autocracies (democratic and autocratic regression). It further distinguishes ten patterns with distinct outcomes, including standard depictions of regime change (i.e. democratic transition or breakdown). A minority (32%) of ERTs produce a regime transition, with the majority of episodes either ending before a transition takes place or not having the potential for such a transition (i.e. further democratization in democratic regimes or further autocratization in autocratic regimes). We also provide comparisons to other datasets, illustrative case studies to demonstrate face validity, and a discussion about how the ERT framework can be applied in peace research.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48892715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Spatial patterns of communal violence in sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲社区暴力的空间格局

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-07-07 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231168187

S. Döring, Katariina Mustasilta

{"title":"Spatial patterns of communal violence in sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"S. Döring, Katariina Mustasilta","doi":"10.1177/00223433231168187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231168187","url":null,"abstract":"Communal violence is a major source of insecurity within and across borders, sparking significant displacement flows and disturbing livelihoods. While conflict literature has shed light onto its causes, the existing research has paid little systematic attention to the spatial dynamics of communal violence. We distinguish between spillover of violence and spillover of predictors. Spillover of violence is defined as conflict incidences occurring as a direct response to communal violence in a nearby location. Spillover of predictors describes instances of communal violence that occur due to nearby conflict-inducing factors. We clarify theoretical pathways for both spillover processes, focusing on drought exposure affecting not locally but in nearby areas. Applying spatial models, we test the expectations regarding nearby violence breeding violence and nearby drought increasing violence with data on incidences of communal violence for sub-Saharan Africa (1990–2014). Our results demonstrate that communal violence explains nearby communal violence through different spillover processes. We also find evidence for an increase in violence due to exposure from neighborhood droughts as well as other conflict-inducing factors.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46509456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Pulling through elections by pulling the plug: Internet disruptions and electoral violence in Uganda 通过拔掉插头来完成选举：乌干达的互联网中断和选举暴力

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-07-05 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231168190

L. Garbe

{"title":"Pulling through elections by pulling the plug: Internet disruptions and electoral violence in Uganda","authors":"L. Garbe","doi":"10.1177/00223433231168190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231168190","url":null,"abstract":"Does increasing Internet access and use challenge authoritarian elections? I argue that Internet access provides both opposition supporters and government authorities with new means to shape electoral conduct. Opposition supporters can use the Internet to report on electoral malpractice and mobilize for support. At the same time government authorities can use the Internet to monitor antiregime sentiment prior to the elections and disrupt Internet access to selectively repress regime opponents during the elections. Studying Uganda’s 2016 presidential elections, evidence from election monitoring and survey data suggests that electoral violence is significantly higher in opposition strongholds with greater Internet access prior to the Internet disruption and is targeted specifically at voters. Insights from qualitative interviews with politicians, journalists and activists underline that the disruption of Internet access indeed hindered opposition supporters to effectively challenge electoral malpractice. Overall, the results stress the important role that Internet access can play for opposition actors in authoritarian elections. At the same time, they highlight their susceptibility to manipulation by government authorities.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41532043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Anti-austerity riots in late developing states: Evidence from the 1977 Egyptian Bread Intifada 后发国家的反紧缩暴乱：1977年埃及面包起义的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-07-02 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231168188

Neil Ketchley, F. Eibl, J. Gunning

{"title":"Anti-austerity riots in late developing states: Evidence from the 1977 Egyptian Bread Intifada","authors":"Neil Ketchley, F. Eibl, J. Gunning","doi":"10.1177/00223433231168188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231168188","url":null,"abstract":"In late developing states, labor markets are often segmented as a result of import substitution and political coalitions centered on the formally employed. Building on insider–outsider and moral economy frameworks from political economy, we theorize that in such contexts labor market insiders develop strong expectations about welfare provision and public transfers that make them more likely to riot against proposed austerity measures. We test our argument with the case of Egypt during the 1977 Bread Intifada, when the announcement of subsidy cuts sparked rioting across the country. To conduct our analysis, we match an original event catalog compiled from Arabic-language sources with disaggregated employment data. Spatial models, rich micro-level data, and the sudden and short-lived nature of the rioting help us to disentangle the importance of an area’s labor force from its location and wider socio-economic context. As we show, despite the diffuse impact of the subsidy cuts, rioting was especially concentrated in areas with labor market insiders – and this is after accounting for a range of plausible alternative explanations. The results suggest that moral economies arising from labor market segmentation can powerfully structure violent opposition to austerity.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48771729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Organized violence 1989–2022, and the return of conflict between states 1989-2022年的有组织暴力，以及国家间冲突的回归

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231185169

Shawn Davies, T. Pettersson, Magnus Öberg

{"title":"Organized violence 1989–2022, and the return of conflict between states","authors":"Shawn Davies, T. Pettersson, Magnus Öberg","doi":"10.1177/00223433231185169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231185169","url":null,"abstract":"This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). In 2022, fatalities from organized violence increased by a staggering 97%, compared to the previous year, from 120,000 in 2021 to 237,000 in 2022, making 2022 the deadliest year since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. The increase was driven by two, particularly deadly, state-based armed conflicts: the Russia–Ukraine war, and the war in Ethiopia against TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front). With more than 81,500 and 101,000 fatalities respectively, these are the two most deadly state-based conflict-years recorded in the post-1989 period. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the first large-scale interstate war in 20 years, and the first interstate armed conflict since World War II where a major power in the international system seeks both territorial gains for itself and the subjugation of another state through regime change. We have witnessed an emerging trend of increased conflict between states in the last decade, including cases where major powers support opposite sides in internationalized intrastate conflict. UCDP recorded 55 active state-based armed conflicts in 2022, an increase of one compared to the previous year. Eight of these conflicts reached the level of war. While the fatalities caused by non-state conflict decreased somewhat when compared to 2021, the number of non-state conflicts, as well as both the number of civilians killed in one-sided violence and the number of actors carrying out such violence, increased in 2022.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"60 1","pages":"691 - 708"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46474124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Lethal brands: Terrorist groups’ logos and violence 致命品牌:恐怖组织的标志和暴力

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-06-29 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231168181

Matteo CM Casiraghi, E. Cusumano

{"title":"Lethal brands: Terrorist groups’ logos and violence","authors":"Matteo CM Casiraghi, E. Cusumano","doi":"10.1177/00223433231168181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231168181","url":null,"abstract":"Terrorist organizations are often described as brands. However, the most important visual representations of these brands – terrorist groups’ logos – have remained unexplored. In this article, we demonstrate that logos are signalling devices that provide vital cues on the propensity to use violence. To this end, we code and analyse 562 terrorist logos (2000–16). After providing a descriptive overview of the main colours and symbols used by terrorist groups worldwide, we rely on a zero-inflated negative binomial model to analyse the relationship between these organizations’ visual choices and their deadly activities. Our results show that the presence of violent, religious, and extremist symbols in terrorist organizations’ logos, as well as the use of black as the main colour, correlates with more frequent and deadlier attacks. These findings have important policy implications, demonstrating that logos serve as behavioural cues predicting the threat posed by terrorist groups not less effectively than their ideology. By highlighting the importance of visual artifacts like logos and their amenability to quantitative research, our article also provides a novel methodological contribution to international relations, helping bridge the gap between explanatory and critical security studies.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47562152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Rebel Foreign Fighter Dataset 叛军外国战士数据集

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-06-27 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231168183

Jack Schwartz

引用次数: 0

Nationalism and torture 民族主义和酷刑

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-05-28 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231164437

Matthew Rains, Daniel W. Hill

{"title":"Nationalism and torture","authors":"Matthew Rains, Daniel W. Hill","doi":"10.1177/00223433231164437","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231164437","url":null,"abstract":"Why do states engage in violence against marginalized social groups? State violence is typically explained as a calculated response to dissent or as a means of preventing dissent. However, many instances of state violence against members of marginalized groups appear to be unconnected to dissent or anti-state mobilization. We examine this dimension of state violence and connect it to control of the government by nationalist political parties and the preferences of their voting bases. We argue that governments in which nationalist parties hold substantial influence are more likely to adopt policies that lead to abuse. Such policies include more aggressive policing of immigrants and ethnic minorities, and lax oversight and punishment of agencies responsible for policing. To test our argument, we examine the Ill-Treatment and Torture data, which record allegations of state violence and also information about the victim’s identity. We find that states with nationalist governments are more frequently accused of abuse against marginalized groups. Our results suggest that, rather than constraining abusive behavior through electoral accountability, the public in democratic countries sometimes prefer leaders who create a more abusive environment for marginalized groups.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42651522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0