Journal of Peace Research最新文献_第7页

Blessing or curse? Assessing the local impacts of foreign direct investment on conflict in Africa 福还是祸？评估外国直接投资对非洲冲突的地方影响

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-12-09 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231200928

Samuel Brazys, Indra de Soysa, K. Vadlamannati

{"title":"Blessing or curse? Assessing the local impacts of foreign direct investment on conflict in Africa","authors":"Samuel Brazys, Indra de Soysa, K. Vadlamannati","doi":"10.1177/00223433231200928","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231200928","url":null,"abstract":"The question of foreign direct investment (FDI) and socio-political development is debated heavily. Liberals believe that FDI brings economic opportunities and/or increased incentives for peace and security among host societies. Critics suggest that FDI is exploitative, leading to conditions that increase the risk of violence. We take a political economy perspective that views FDI as problematic depending on how FDI affects politically powerful local interests. As such, all forms of FDI should meet domestic opposition, but only FDI in the extractive sector, where domestic political actors have little at stake, escalates to major war. Building on recent work which examines this question pertaining to extractive sector FDI, we introduce sub-national, geo-referenced data on FDI in all sectors for evaluating local conflict using combined data from four distinct geo-referenced conflict databases. Using site-period fixed effects with a difference-in-difference like approach, we find that FDI in all sectors increases local conflict. Conflicts induced by most FDI sectors fall short of becoming civil war, except for extractive sector FDI.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138585652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Messaging and mobilization: Rebel groups, social media communication, and audience engagement 信息传递和动员：反叛团体、社交媒体传播和受众参与

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-12-09 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231201448

Samuel E. Bestvater, C. Loyle

引用次数: 0

Where there’s a will, there’s a way: Border walls and refugees 有志者事竟成：边境墙和难民

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-12-09 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231200918

Nazli Avdan, Andrew S Rosenberg, Christopher F Gelpi

{"title":"Where there’s a will, there’s a way: Border walls and refugees","authors":"Nazli Avdan, Andrew S Rosenberg, Christopher F Gelpi","doi":"10.1177/00223433231200918","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231200918","url":null,"abstract":"Over the last decade, there has been a notable surge in the movement of refugees across international borders, posing significant challenges for the international community. In response, various policy measures have been implemented, including the construction of border walls, with the aim of impeding refugee influx. However, scholars have expressed doubts regarding the effectiveness of these fortifications, suggesting that walls merely redirect migrants to alternative routes, discourage return migration, or alter migrants’ cost–benefit calculations. Despite these concerns, there has been a lack of rigorous testing to support or refute these claims beyond case-specific evidence. This article addresses this research gap by thoroughly examining the arguments surrounding the impact of border fencing on refugee flows. We conduct a systematic, cross-national test of these arguments with a two-way fixed-effects estimator, an equivalence test, and a recently developed matching estimator designed for use on time-series cross-sectional data. Our results strongly support those who are skeptical of the impact of walls. We consistently demonstrate either that border fencing has not had any causal impact on refugee flows between 1970 and 2017 or that the statistical state-of-the-art is incapable of discerning that true effect. In either scenario, the evidence suggests that border fences fail to deliver the anticipated outcomes. These findings hold significant implications as violence-driven refugee flows persist, underscoring that while walls may serve as politically attractive tools for populist leaders, their actual deterrent effects are highly questionable at best.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138586007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Leader age and international conflict: A regression discontinuity analysis 领导人年龄与国际冲突：回归不连续分析

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231201447

Andrew Bertoli, Allan Dafoe, Robert Trager

{"title":"Leader age and international conflict: A regression discontinuity analysis","authors":"Andrew Bertoli, Allan Dafoe, Robert Trager","doi":"10.1177/00223433231201447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231201447","url":null,"abstract":"Does leader age matter for the likelihood of interstate conflict? Many studies in biology, psychology, and physiology have found that aggression tends to decline with age throughout the adult lifespan, particularly in males. Moreover, a number of major international conflicts have been attributed to young leaders, including the conquests of Alexander the Great and the ambitious military campaigns of Napoleon. However, the exact nature of the relationship between leader age and international conflict has been difficult to study because of the endogeneity problem. Leaders do not come to power randomly. Rather, many domestic and international factors influence who becomes the leader of a country, and some of these factors could correlate with the chances of interstate conflict. For instance, wary democratic publics might favor older leaders when future international conflict seems likely, inducing a relationship between older leaders and interstate conflict. This article overcomes such confounding by using a regression discontinuity design. Specifically, it looks at close elections of national leaders who had large differences in age. It finds that when older candidates barely defeated younger ones, countries were much less likely to engage in military conflict. Its sample is also fairly representative of democracies more broadly, meaning that the findings likely hold true for cases outside the sample. The results demonstrate the important role that individuals play in shaping world politics. They also illustrate the value of design-based inference for learning about important questions in the study of international relations and peace science.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"18 21","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138591279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dominant group backlash? Majority responses to minority participation in the police 主导群体的反弹？多数群体对少数群体参与警务的反应

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231200921

Matthew Nanes

{"title":"Dominant group backlash? Majority responses to minority participation in the police","authors":"Matthew Nanes","doi":"10.1177/00223433231200921","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231200921","url":null,"abstract":"Security sector reform often involves integrating marginalized groups into the police. Extensive discussion surrounds the benefits of inclusion to the marginalized group, but we know little about impacts on the dominant group. I argue that exposure to out-group police can increase dominant group civilians’ trust in the out-group, opening the door for further reforms and increasing the likelihood of peace. I explore dominant group citizens’ responses to out-group police officers in Israel. First, using a survey experiment, I find no evidence that exposure to Arab (marginalized) police officers leads to backlash by Jewish (dominant) civilians. Then, drawing on multiple surveys and panel data on the identity of officers at every station over six years, I find that exposure to Arab police is associated with increased trust in Arabs among Jews. This trust extends to both everyday situations like willingness to live next door to an Arab and to beliefs about Arabs’ intentions to commit political violence. Collectively, these results contradict fears that backlash by the dominant group might spoil peace, opening the door for police integration as an important part of peace processes.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"341 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139204581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The political consequences of wartime sexual violence: Evidence from a list experiment 战时性暴力的政治后果:来自列表实验的证据

1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231183992

Belén González, Richard Traunmüller

引用次数: 0

Fiscal conditions for multiparty elections in dictatorships 独裁国家多党选举的财政条件

1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231196608

Austin M Mitchell

{"title":"Fiscal conditions for multiparty elections in dictatorships","authors":"Austin M Mitchell","doi":"10.1177/00223433231196608","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231196608","url":null,"abstract":"Multiparty elections can reduce the likelihood of conflict and help dictators secure their rule, but when does a dictator create electoral institutions? Existing research finds that one of the major reasons regimes introduce multiparty elections is to gain information about opposition demands. This article builds on that argument to explain that a regime’s finances determine whether or not it is able to benefit from creating electoral institutions. Dictators use the revenue of the regime to invest in different means of deterring opposition rebellion. A regime’s first priority is to build repressive capacity, after which it invests in public spending to buy the support of its winning coalition. Regimes only benefit from multiparty elections when they have sufficient revenue to fund repressive capacity but lack the finances to also buy regime security through massive public spending. Low-revenue regimes cannot benefit from elections and high-revenue regimes do not need elections to help secure their rule. I test the implications of the argument for regime spending and the creation of multiparty electoral institutions using a global sample of dictatorships between 1972 and 2014. The results of the hypothesis tests indicate that as revenue increases regimes decrease their shares of spending on repressive capacity but increase shares of spending on the public. The results also indicate the probability that a regime introduces elections rises as revenue increases from a low level, but the probability declines as revenue increases from a high level. The study builds upon the literature for how regime resources and state capacity influence authoritarian strategies of political survival. The findings for spending patterns are consistent with recent research on late modern regimes, and the results for the emergence of electoral institutions are consistent with research that finds dictators must have sufficient resources to survive holding elections.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"143 5‐6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135392766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Public perception of terrorism attacks: A conjoint experiment 公众对恐怖袭击的看法:一项联合实验

1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231200922

Jaroslaw Kantorowicz, Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, Gerdien de Vries

{"title":"Public perception of terrorism attacks: A conjoint experiment","authors":"Jaroslaw Kantorowicz, Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, Gerdien de Vries","doi":"10.1177/00223433231200922","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231200922","url":null,"abstract":"In democratic societies, governments cannot act in isolation from public opinion. This is especially true regarding terrorism, where public perception is the instrument targeted by terrorists to achieve their political goals. Nevertheless, governments must also be able to resist public pressure and preserve individual rights. All this suggests that researching public perception of terrorist attacks is crucial. We make an important contribution in this direction by measuring the importance the public assigns to various attributes of terrorist attacks. Using novel methodology (conjoint experiment) and survey data from the UK and The Netherlands (N = 6,315), we find that people are concerned with attacks by immigrants (in the Netherlands), and by individuals acting as part of a terror cell, and with jihadist motivation. Furthermore, past experience with specific terrorist tactics drive preference to address such attacks more than others. In both countries people strongly focus on the severity of attacks, and under-weigh probabilities. The terror attack in the Netherlands in 2019 provided an opportunity to examine perception right after an actual attack. Also there we have found that people’s concerns are driven by experience with specific attacks. A better understanding of terrorism perception can inform policymakers about the gap between optimal strategies to combat terrorism and the expectations of the public.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"1 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135393305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Student protest, violent interactions, and state repression 学生抗议，暴力互动，政府镇压

1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231198132

Ayal Feinberg, Idean Salehyan

{"title":"Student protest, violent interactions, and state repression","authors":"Ayal Feinberg, Idean Salehyan","doi":"10.1177/00223433231198132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231198132","url":null,"abstract":"Why do states use violence to repress dissent? When do opposition groups escalate conflict by employing violent tactics? We argue that not all opposition groups are created alike, and that understanding who is involved in protest is important for event outcomes. Because of their age and social status, student protesters are more likely to adopt confrontational behaviors, even when engaged in nominally peaceful protest. As such, students are more likely to be seen as threats by security forces tasked with responding to social unrest. Although frequently unplanned, spontaneous interactions between dissidents and regime forces can lead to an escalatory spiral. As such, we expect that student protests are more likely to escalate to violence than protests by other actors, and that security forces are more likely to use repression against students. This relationship will be especially pronounced when youth unemployment is high, leading to heightened grievances and fewer social constraints. Using event data combined with actor information on protest dynamics across seven countries in Africa and Latin America from 1990 to 2016, we find that although student groups are not more likely to engage in riots at the outset, when they do protest, violent interactions with police are more likely. Moreover, youth unemployment significantly increases the potential for violence.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"26 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135868588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Militarized state-building interventions and the survival of fragile states 军事化的国家建设干预和脆弱国家的生存

1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231196610

Kelly Matush, David A Lake

{"title":"Militarized state-building interventions and the survival of fragile states","authors":"Kelly Matush, David A Lake","doi":"10.1177/00223433231196610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231196610","url":null,"abstract":"Militarized state-building interventions (MSIs) must fulfill two often conflicting goals. At the time of withdrawal the intervenor must leave in place a state able to survive on its own and govern its territory. States only intervene in other states, however, when they aspire to change the policy of the target in ways they prefer. In attempting to balance these objectives, the intervenor ‘pulls’ policy in its preferred direction by supporting a less popular leader at the cost of leaving behind a state that is no more likely to survive over time than its peers. We test our theory and find evidence for this trade-off by examining all MSIs by great powers and IOs in failed states from 1956 to 2006. Consistent with the theory, we find that MSIs do not on average have any significant effect on state survival. We also find that MSIs that move the target state’s policy closer to that of the external power have a negative effect on survival, but interventions that do not result in a change in policy do not. This argument and finding temper the optimism of much of the contemporary literature on international interventions. Potential intervenors face a stark trade-off. If they draw the policy of the failed state towards their own preferences, then that state will be more likely to fail again in the future.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"46 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136382083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0