Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control最新文献

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Portfolio choice analysis in a multi-country macro model
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105021
Chenyue Hu
{"title":"Portfolio choice analysis in a multi-country macro model","authors":"Chenyue Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines portfolio choice in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with trade and financial linkages across 43 countries. I conduct comparative statics analysis with this structural model to disentangle potential mechanisms of global financial allocation, including risk hedging, risk diversification, risk sharing, and financial friction. For asset home bias, the model predicts that risk hedging is less essential in a multi-country than in a two-country setting. For bilateral asset positions, the model implies that variations in financial friction and asset covariance are major determinants of observed cross-country portfolios. Meanwhile, bilateral financial linkages strongly covary with trade linkages across countries. Comparative statics suggests that this covariance is mainly driven by the high correlation of frictions across the two channels of globalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 105021"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143100988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Money, inflation tax, and trading behavior: Theory and laboratory experiments
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105031
Zakaria Babutsidze , Federico Bonetto , Nobuyuki Hanaki , Maurizio Iacopetta
{"title":"Money, inflation tax, and trading behavior: Theory and laboratory experiments","authors":"Zakaria Babutsidze ,&nbsp;Federico Bonetto ,&nbsp;Nobuyuki Hanaki ,&nbsp;Maurizio Iacopetta","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In a Kiyotaki-Wright model, we generate equilibria characterized by the partial or full acceptability of fiat money and by fundamental or speculative trading strategies. In a laboratory setting with real participants, we then test the model's predictions regarding the effects of an inflation tax and the quantity of money on production and welfare. The inflation tax is implemented through the confiscation of money holdings. Consistent with the model's prediction, the inflation tax reduces the frequency at which players trade a low-storage cost good for fiat money. However, contrary to the model's prediction, we did not observe any significant influence of the inflation tax on trading strategies, suggesting that the inflation tax causes only modest production distortion. We also find that the acceptance of money in the lab is not correlated with the proportion of people holding money. We discuss the welfare consequences of the inflation tax and relate them to the experimental findings based on New Monetarist models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 105031"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143128524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A three-sector structural VAR model for Australia
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105029
Renée Fry-Mckibbin , Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo , Richard Kima , Vladimir Volkov
{"title":"A three-sector structural VAR model for Australia","authors":"Renée Fry-Mckibbin ,&nbsp;Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo ,&nbsp;Richard Kima ,&nbsp;Vladimir Volkov","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a three-sector structural VAR model of the Australian economy to analyze the macroeconomic effects of resource reallocation among the mining, manufacturing and non-tradable sectors in the context of the resource boom of the 2000s. Impulse response analysis reveals that both commodity demand and supply shocks drive the reallocation of capital and labor toward the mining sector, with the reallocation being larger and more enduring in the case of a demand shock. Using a novel measure of spillover intensity constructed from a multivariate historical decomposition, we identify four phases that characterize the Australian economy between 1988 and 2019: (i) capital deepening; (ii) the resource boom; (iii) the unwinding of the boom; and (iv) the post-boom phase. We show that the structural shocks generate patterns of sectoral reallocation that vary across these four phases. Overall, our results indicate evidence of structural change with little evidence of Dutch disease.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 105029"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143100989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consumption dynamics and welfare under non-Gaussian earnings risk 非高斯收入风险下的消费动态和福利
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104945
Fatih Guvenen , Serdar Ozkan , Rocio Madera
{"title":"Consumption dynamics and welfare under non-Gaussian earnings risk","authors":"Fatih Guvenen ,&nbsp;Serdar Ozkan ,&nbsp;Rocio Madera","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104945","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104945","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent empirical studies document that the distribution of earnings changes displays substantial deviations from lognormality: in particular, earnings changes are negatively skewed with extremely high kurtosis (long and thick tails), and these non-Gaussian features vary substantially both over the life cycle and with the earnings level of individuals. Furthermore, earnings changes display nonlinear (asymmetric) mean reversion. In this paper, we embed a very rich “benchmark earnings process” that captures these non-Gaussian and nonlinear features into a lifecycle consumption-saving model and study its implications for consumption dynamics, consumption insurance, and welfare. We show four main results. First, the benchmark process essentially matches the empirical lifetime earnings inequality—a first-order proxy for consumption inequality—whereas the canonical Gaussian (persistent-plus-transitory) process understates it by a factor of five to ten. Second, the welfare cost of idiosyncratic risk implied by the benchmark process is between two-to-four times higher than the canonical Gaussian one. Third, the standard method in the literature for measuring the pass-through of income shocks to consumption—can significantly overstate the degree of consumption smoothing possible under non-Gaussian shocks. Fourth, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory income (e.g., from a stimulus check) is higher under non-Gaussian earnings risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104945"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142263337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The technological origins of the decline in labor market dynamism 劳动力市场活力下降的技术根源
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104962
Jan Eeckhout , Xi Weng
{"title":"The technological origins of the decline in labor market dynamism","authors":"Jan Eeckhout ,&nbsp;Xi Weng","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104962","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104962","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the last decades, there has been a marked decline in the job flows to and from unemployment and between employment. We ask whether and how technological change can account for his secular decline in labor market dynamism. We propose a theory that focuses on the determinants of technology broadly defined: 1. the complementarity between worker skill and firm productivity; and 2. the volatility in productivity shocks; and 3. search frictions. We derive job flows in a sorting model with search frictions and endogenous search effort both on and off the job, as well as shocks that lead to mismatch. We quantify our model using the US data and find an increase in the complementarity between labor and technology, a decline in the frequency and volatility of productivity shocks, and a decline in the match efficiency as well as an increase in the search costs. The changing nature of these features of the technology contributes to the secular decline in labor market dynamism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104962"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142269935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The parental pay gap over the life cycle: Children, jobs, and labor supply
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104963
Claudia Goldin , Sari Pekkala Kerr , Claudia Olivetti
{"title":"The parental pay gap over the life cycle: Children, jobs, and labor supply","authors":"Claudia Goldin ,&nbsp;Sari Pekkala Kerr ,&nbsp;Claudia Olivetti","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104963","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Women earn less than men, and that is especially true of mothers relative to fathers. Much of the widening occurs after family formation when mothers reduce their hours of work. But what happens when the kids grow up? To answer that question, we estimate three earning gaps: the “motherhood penalty,” the “price of being female,” and the “fatherhood premium.” When added together these three produce the “parental gender gap,” defined as the difference in earnings between mothers and fathers. We estimate (log) earnings gaps for college graduates born around 1960 using longitudinal data from the NLSY79 and from the LEHD-Census that track respondents from their twenties to their fifties. As the children grow up and as women work more hours, the motherhood penalty is greatly reduced. But women, especially mothers, seem willing throughout their working lives to trade lower pay for various amenities, such as working in firms with management practices that are less penalizing of career interruptions or of shorter work schedules. Fathers, however, manage to expand their relative earnings gains as their children age, particularly among those working in time-intensive jobs, irrespective of work hours or firm fixed effects. The parental gender gap in earnings remains substantial over the family lifecycle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104963"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What does the beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of soft landings?
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104957
Andrew Figura, Chris Waller
{"title":"What does the beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of soft landings?","authors":"Andrew Figura,&nbsp;Chris Waller","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104957","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104957","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Any assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing in the labor market should take into account the current state of the labor market and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment. We use a simple model of the Beveridge curve to investigate what conditions are necessary for a soft landing in the labor market to occur and what the likelihood of these conditions was during the height of the pandemic-period inflation. We find that a soft landing was a plausible outcome at that time. Since then, the evolution of the labor market has borne out that prediction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104957"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Living arrangements and labor market volatility of young workers 青年工人的生活安排和劳动力市场波动性
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104958
Sebastian Dyrda , Greg Kaplan , José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
{"title":"Living arrangements and labor market volatility of young workers","authors":"Sebastian Dyrda ,&nbsp;Greg Kaplan ,&nbsp;José-Víctor Ríos-Rull","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104958","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104958","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Household size is countercyclical, mainly because of young people moving into or delaying departure from the parental home. Those living in older households earn less and have more volatile hours than their peers living alone. We pose a theory of household formation and labor choice over the business cycle. Young people decide where to live depending on their wage, taste for living within the old household, and implicit transfers received. Our theory accounts for the bulk of the contribution of the household's size volatility to the volatility of the aggregate hours. Including people with varying living arrangements yields an implied aggregate, or macro, Frisch elasticity around 70 percent larger than the assumed micro elasticity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104958"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142263336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The welfare costs of misinformation 错误信息的福利成本
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104959
Neha Bairoliya , Kathleen McKiernan
{"title":"The welfare costs of misinformation","authors":"Neha Bairoliya ,&nbsp;Kathleen McKiernan","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104959","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104959","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Social Security (SS) benefits, with an average replacement rate of around 40 percent, serve as an important source of retirement income for older Americans. Yet, the size of lifetime benefits a household receives depends on many factors, including the age of benefit claim and life-cycle labor supply decisions. Given the complexity of the associated rules, many households may lack understanding of one or more aspects of the system. In this work, we use a life-cycle model of consumption, savings, labor supply, and Social Security application decisions to study the welfare impact of such misinformation. Our findings indicate significant welfare losses stemming from misinformation, especially when it causes individuals to strongly over-estimate the value of future entitlements. Additionally, we show that the <em>Social Security Statement</em> program, a large public information campaign, must inform only 20.1 percent of misinformed individuals in order for aggregate benefits of information to outweigh aggregate costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104959"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142269560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reprint of: How do households respond to income shocks?
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104973
Dirk Krueger , Egor Malkov , Fabrizio Perri
{"title":"Reprint of: How do households respond to income shocks?","authors":"Dirk Krueger ,&nbsp;Egor Malkov ,&nbsp;Fabrizio Perri","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104973","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104973","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use panel data from the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth from 1991 to 2016 to document what components of the household budget constraint change in response to shocks to household labor income, both over shorter and over longer horizons. Consumption and wealth responses are informative about the household consumption (or savings) function and thus about what class of consumption-savings model best describes the data. Empirically, we first show that shocks to labor income are associated with negligible changes in transfers and non-labor income components, modest changes in consumption expenditures, and large changes in wealth. To understand the wealth response we then split households into a sample that does not own business or real estate wealth, and a sample that does. For the first group, we find that consumption responses are more substantial (and increasing with the horizon of the income shock) and wealth responses are much smaller (and mildly increasing with the income shock horizon). Turning to theory, we argue that for this group, a simple extension of the standard permanent income hypothesis (PIH) consumption function that allows for partial insurance against even permanent income shocks explains the consumption and wealth responses well, both at short and long horizons. For the second group with business wealth or real estate wealth the standard framework cannot explain the large changes in wealth associated with income shocks. We conclude that models which include shocks to the value of household wealth are necessary to fully evaluate the sources and consequences of household resource risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104973"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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