Megan Becker, Jonathan Markowitz, Sarah Orsborn, Isabelle Nazha, Srividya Dasaraju, Lindsay Lauder
{"title":"Replicating the Resource Curse: A Qualitative Replication of Ross 2004","authors":"Megan Becker, Jonathan Markowitz, Sarah Orsborn, Isabelle Nazha, Srividya Dasaraju, Lindsay Lauder","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae125","url":null,"abstract":"What are the causal pathways through which natural resources are linked to civil conflict? Ross evaluates ten causal pathways across thirteen conflicts to offer the most comprehensive answer to date. However, nearly 20 years later, all thirteen conflicts have ended, and more sources are available, motivating the question: Would the findings hold if replicated today? We employ a new explicit standards approach to replicate Ross’ thirteen cases twice: First, using his original seventy-eight sources and second, employing a more up-to-date set of conflict end-dates and over 500 sources. Most findings (75 percent) hold, while 25 percent do not. We find stronger evidence for Ross’ claim that looting resources is linked to longer conflicts and that resources motivate government repression. However, we also overturn some of his key claims, by demonstrating that resources do, in fact, affect conflict onset by funding rebel start-up costs and generating grievances amongst the population.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142805342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Power Grabs from the Top: A Database of Self-Coups","authors":"Arthur A Goldsmith","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae147","url":null,"abstract":"This research note introduces new global data on self-coups—rapid moves by sitting executive leaders to “overthrow” their own governments and illegitimately maintain or extend power. Self-coups are distinct from ordinary coups (sudden illegal attempts by other elites to topple the sitting executive) and overlap with incumbent takeovers (incremental quasi-legal steps by the sitting executive to amass power). Still, there is conceptual discord about what delineates self-coups and a resultant lack of consensus about basic facts, even about where and when self-coups have happened. To provide a firmer foundation for investigating the self-coup phenomenon systematically, I draw from eight datasets and original data collection and coding to present comprehensive data on 147 individual events (plus 90 candidate incidents that did not fully meet the criteria) in the 1950–2022 period. The dataset provides information on the perpetrators, targets, flashpoint dates, and methods of these events. Illustrative statistical analysis suggests that following a self-coup, the level of international economic aid tends to have a negative effect on the probability that a country will hold competitive elections. Future research may apply these data for a better understanding of the causes of self-coups and the long-term effects of self-coups on political and economic development.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142805341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"IMF Lending Programs and Repression in Autocracies","authors":"Stephen C Nelson, Christopher P Dinkel","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae149","url":null,"abstract":"Do International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs increase repression in borrowing countries? We argue that repression worsens when autocratic governments enter conditional lending arrangements with the IMF. Autocracies are likelier than democracies to harshly crackdown during episodes of heightened protest and unrest triggered by IMF-mandated adjustment and structural reform programs. But harsh repression of anticipated spikes in dissent spurred by liberalization-oriented IMF conditions may also be used by autocrats to proactively signal their commitment to preserve regime insiders’ advantages. We present several tests of the arguments in the article. In the first test, we use a compound instrumental variable to estimate the conditional difference in human rights scores between IMF program participation and non-participation in both democratic and autocratic country-years (1975–2014). We do not find evidence for clear links between IMF program participation and human rights in developing democracies. In autocracies, however, the relationship between IMF lending programs and human rights respect is consistently negative and significant. In further tests, we isolate the impact of different types of IMF conditionality. Evidence suggests that IMF programs with more numerous structural reforms (namely, pro-privatization conditions) are associated with lower human rights protections in autocratic countries.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"113 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142805340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inference with Extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models","authors":"David Randahl, Johan Vegelius","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae137","url":null,"abstract":"Processes that occasionally, but not always, produce extreme values are notoriously difficult to model, as a small number of extreme observations may have a large impact on the results. Existing methods for handling extreme values are often arbitrary and leave researchers without guidance regarding this problem. In this paper, we propose an extreme value and zero-inflated negative binomial (EVZINB) regression model, which allows for separate modeling of extreme and nonextreme observations to solve this problem. The EVZINB model offers an elegant solution to modeling data with extreme values and allows researchers to draw additional inferences about both extreme and nonextreme observations. We illustrate the usefulness of the EVZINB model by replicating a study on the effects of the deployment of UN peacekeepers on one-sided violence against civilians.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142599694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Diffusing Risk: Bureaucratic Agency, UN Security Council Horse-Trading, and the Role of Co-Financing","authors":"Stefano Jud","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae140","url":null,"abstract":"Political lending is problematic for the operations of multilateral development banks (MDBs) since politically motivated aid has a greater default risk than other aid projects. MDB bureaucrats, therefore, face a dilemma. On the one hand, they want to please major shareholders by engaging in political lending. On the other hand, they want to mitigate their MDB's exposure to excessive risk. One way to solve this dilemma is to share the risk of loans with other lenders through co-financing. I expect that as countries’ share of politically motivated aid increases, these countries’ portfolios will receive more co-financed loans. Using newly collected loan-level data from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, I find that UNSC membership increases the number of co-financed loans by 38.5 percent and increases the share of co-financed loans in a country's European Bank for Reconstruction and Development loan portfolio by 19.1 percentage points. I demonstrate that these results are consistent with the argument that MDB bureaucrats want to mitigate risk.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142902257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Contesting the Securitization of Migration: NGOs, IGOs, and the Security Backlash","authors":"Jean-Pierre Murray","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae139","url":null,"abstract":"Studies of migration-related security concerns have focused on the emergence of these concerns through securitization or their potential dissolution through desecuritization. This paper challenges the conventional view of these processes—securitization and desecuritization—as oppositional and mutually exclusive. Instead, it argues that they are imbricated in complex ways in an arena of contestation where actors vie for legitimacy and justify their claims through ongoing actions and reactions. Focusing on the Global South case of securitized migration in the Dominican Republic, this paper conceptualizes desecuritization not as a discrete outcome measured by success or failure, but as a dynamic process evolving through interactions with securitization. By examining the role of non-state actors in contesting securitized policies, the paper reveals that such contestation can paradoxically intensify securitization through a “security backlash” that delegitimizes these actors and discredits their rights-based claims. This dynamic underscores the “resilience” of securitization amidst persistent contestation. Ultimately, the paper demonstrates desecuritization as iterative contestation rather than static outcomes, emphasizing the agency of non-state actors in shaping security narratives and practices while acknowledging their limitations against powerful state actors. These insights from a study of South–South migration extend the application of the securitization framework beyond convenient Western contexts and challenge perceived geographic boundaries.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dealing with Clashes of International Law: A Microlevel Study of Climate and Trade","authors":"Manfred Elsig, Gabriele Spilker","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae136","url":null,"abstract":"For years, scholars in international relations have addressed questions related to regime complexity and its effects. However, there is a lack of understanding of how individuals react to clashes of international law obligations when assessing domestic policies. In this article, we study the extent to which citizens are concerned with compliance and noncompliance with international law when their governments design domestic laws to implement international obligations. We are, in particular, interested in whether citizens’ reactions to clashes of international obligations are driven by concerns about being exposed internationally for breaching international law or concerns about tangible material costs. Our empirical analysis is based on an experiment embedded in a survey of Swiss citizens’ attitudes toward environmental issues. The experiment first shows that individuals react to both information about compliance as well as noncompliance, whereas the shifts are more notable in the case of negative information about noncompliance. Second, we find that information about the country being subject to international adjudication (what we call exposure costs) in case of noncompliance is more consequential than information about material costs (facing retaliation).","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142448216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Nationalism, Internationalism, and Interventionism: How Overseas Military Service Influences Foreign Policy Attitudes","authors":"Bradford Waldie","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae127","url":null,"abstract":"s How does military experience change individual foreign policy preferences? Prior research on military service focuses on the effects of combat experience on political participation and policy preferences, but combat is not the only military experience that influences attitudes. Living overseas is a common military experience with the potential to shape foreign policy preferences. Using observational data from a sample of military elites and original survey data from a sample of military veterans, I leverage semi-random and non-voluntary assignments to overseas military bases to investigate the relationship between overseas exposure and foreign policy preferences. The data provides evidence that overseas military service increases the likelihood of calling for international engagement, decreases nationalist attitudes, and increases the willingness of military members to assist individual allies. The ability to shape the preferences of military members has important implications for the development of foreign policy and the stability of international engagement.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142449581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Traditional Authorities and Strategies in Demands for Self-Determination","authors":"Clara Neupert-Wentz, Friederike Luise Kelle","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae134","url":null,"abstract":"Ethnic groups employ different strategies to pursue demands for self-determination. While some act within conventional channels of political contestation, others choose non-conventional strategies, including violence and rebellion. We conceive of this as a result of bargaining between group and state and argue that both sides’ institutions affect the likelihood of escalation. Specifically, groups with traditional authorities have the capacity and incentives to escalate conflicts. Only when such institutions are matched with internal accountability mechanisms can groups credibly commit so that bargaining failure and violence less likely. Similarly, states with open elections can tie their hands more effectively, and constitutional regulations of traditional authorities formalize state-group interactions, which also mitigates the effect of traditional authorities on conflict. We use new global data on groups that demand self-determination, their traditional political institutions, and their strategy choice from 2005 to 2015. We find support for our argument using various identification and estimation approaches. Groups with traditional authorities are much more likely to use violence, a finding that is not sensitive to the omission of unobserved confounders. Furthermore, this relationship is moderated by group-level audience costs and the strategic environment provided by the state. Our findings advance new perspectives on the interactions of customary and national institutions in determining subnational conflict.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142908549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Preferential Trade Agreements and Leaders’ Business Experience","authors":"Nicola Nones","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae129","url":null,"abstract":"Many theories attempt to explain the determinants of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and their design. Existing accounts, however, focus almost exclusively on structural or domestic factors and ignore individual leaders. In this paper, I develop and test novel theoretical claims regarding executive leaders’ prior career in business and their trade cooperation policy once in office. I construct a new dataset on the heads of the executive’s business managerial experience and test my main claims in a time-series-cross-sectional setting covering 185 countries from 1948 to 2009. To establish causality, I rely on an instrumental variable strategy and leverage exogenous transitions due to sudden deaths or terminal illness in office. The results show that businesspersons-turned-politicians are more likely to enter PTAs and are more likely to sign deeper PTAs. The relationship is further investigated in an illustrative case study of the 1988—Canada trade deal. The substantive effect of business experience is comparable to that of established factors in the literature, such as regime type, and is robust to numerous tests, specifications, subsamples, and measurements of business experience.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142415574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}