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Probabilistic Democracy 概率民主
IF 2.6 1区 社会学
International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf067
Muhammet A Bas, Randall W Stone
{"title":"Probabilistic Democracy","authors":"Muhammet A Bas, Randall W Stone","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqaf067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaf067","url":null,"abstract":"Democracy is an important concept that is difficult to measure, and existing measures have well-known weaknesses. We define democracy narrowly, as electoral accountability, and estimate the probability of democracy using a structural model and data from 1945 to 2008. We allow for strategic voting and find evidence that voters are intimidated into supporting authoritarian leaders. Ratification of the Convention Against Torture by the country in question emboldens voters, while ratification by third parties, close relations with the USA and the incumbent’s military experience increase voter intimidation. Our estimated democracy scores are highly correlated with other measures frequently used in political science and come with important advantages, including conceptual clarity, replicability, out-of-sample score prediction, flexibility with respect to the variables and specifications used in the estimation model, estimates of uncertainty, and avoiding potential expert bias.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145311030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reconnecting Evidence and Theory: Building Knowledge from the Ground Up 重新连接证据和理论:从头开始构建知识
IF 2.6 1区 社会学
International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf077
Marijke Breuning
{"title":"Reconnecting Evidence and Theory: Building Knowledge from the Ground Up","authors":"Marijke Breuning","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqaf077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaf077","url":null,"abstract":"This International Studies Association Presidential Address argues that international studies needs to rethink the field’s identity, and its value to students and society—an issue that is urgent due to the challenges facing higher education. International studies has long valued theory and theoretical paradigms over the careful evaluation of theory on the basis of evidence. The address argues that the incentive structure that encourages this focus on theory is misguided. It also argues that the field’s identity, value, and future do not depend on this focus on theory and theoretical paradigms. Instead, the field’s identity, value, and future depend on a willingness to center evidence-based, theory-informed scholarship. The address argues that the proposed redirection would alter the role of theory in the field, rather than make it obsolete. Evidence-based, theory-informed scholarship places theory in the service of an evidence-based understanding of phenomena in global politics and advances knowledge—offering value to students and society.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145311031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reconsidering the Relationship between CBI and FIX 重新思考CBI与FIX的关系
IF 2.6 1区 社会学
International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf074
David H Bearce, Ana Carolina Garriga
{"title":"Reconsidering the Relationship between CBI and FIX","authors":"David H Bearce, Ana Carolina Garriga","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqaf074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaf074","url":null,"abstract":"s This research note reconsiders the question of whether central bank independence (CBI) and fixed exchange rates (FIX) function as substitutes or complements. We argue that these monetary institutions have neither served as substitutes nor performed as complements for either inflation control or exchange rate stability. In terms of their substitutability, our statistical evidence shows that while CBI has been used for inflation control, FIX has been more directed toward exchange rate stability using updated datasets with these monetary institutions measured both on a de jure and de facto basis with nearly global country/year coverage from 1970 to 2020. In terms of their complementarity, our results also demonstrate that CBI was not more effective at reducing inflation when paired with greater FIX, and FIX was not more effective at promoting exchange rate stability when paired with greater CBI. If anything, both are less effective when paired with the other monetary institution.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"86 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145241858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Negotiating Difficult Issues with Little Fervour? Why Peace Processes in Territorial Conflicts Tend to Produce Incomplete Outcomes 用一点点热情来谈判棘手的问题?为什么领土冲突中的和平进程往往产生不完整的结果
IF 2.6 1区 社会学
International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf072
Meri Dankenbring, Iris Volg, Constantin Ruhe
{"title":"Negotiating Difficult Issues with Little Fervour? Why Peace Processes in Territorial Conflicts Tend to Produce Incomplete Outcomes","authors":"Meri Dankenbring, Iris Volg, Constantin Ruhe","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqaf072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaf072","url":null,"abstract":"There is widespread consensus in peace research that territorial conflicts are more enduring and difficult to settle than non-territorial conflicts. However, theoretical explanations for this relationship vary. We apply a new conceptual framework to integrate existing explanations into a broader theory. We highlight how earlier work suggests alternative mechanisms: either actors in territorial intra-state conflicts are less willing to compromise at the negotiation table, or the most relevant negotiation issues on the table in territorial conflicts are particularly difficult. This theoretical argument directly translates into a statistical model, enabling us to measure and compare the latent compromise propensity and the relative difficulty of negotiated provisions in territorial versus non-territorial conflicts. In a preregistered analysis, we find that comprehensive peace agreements are less likely in territorial civil wars because provisions primarily relevant in territorial conflicts are particularly difficult. Further analyses show that territorial conflicts also have a lower overall compromise propensity than government conflicts, but specific context characteristics in territorial conflicts explain this difference.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145254696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can International Advocacy Rally Public Support for Human Rights Sanctions? Experimental Evidence from the United States 国际倡导能让公众支持人权制裁吗?来自美国的实验证据
IF 2.6 1区 社会学
International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf075
Ryan Yu-Lin Liou
{"title":"Can International Advocacy Rally Public Support for Human Rights Sanctions? Experimental Evidence from the United States","authors":"Ryan Yu-Lin Liou","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqaf075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaf075","url":null,"abstract":"Human rights organizations regularly publicize abuses and shame repressive regimes. But can such human rights messaging effectively mobilize public support for sanctions against these regimes? This study examines whether and under what conditions international advocacy influences citizens’ willingness to support sanctions. I hypothesize that advocacy effectiveness depends on who delivers the message, what type of violation is reported, and how the response is framed. I fielded a preregistered survey experiment with a sample of 2,204 Americans, varying the type of rights violation (physical integrity vs. empowerment rights), the advocacy messenger (UN Special Rapporteur vs. Human Rights Watch), and the sanctions framing (unilateral vs. multilateral). Results show that advocacy messages can increase public support for sanctions, but effects vary significantly across conditions. First, UN messaging produces robust effects, while Human Rights Watch messaging shows weaker and less consistent impacts. Second, messages describing physical integrity abuses generate strong support, while empowerment rights violations fail to mobilize public opinion. Contrary to expectations, multilateral framing does not significantly increase support. These findings advance our understanding of transnational advocacy by identifying the conditions under which international actors can effectively mobilize public backing for human rights enforcement and when advocacy efforts may fall short.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145141503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
IO Endorsements, Perceived Alignment, and Public Support for Unpopular Policies 对不受欢迎的政策的认可、认知一致性和公众支持
IF 2.6 1区 社会学
International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf073
Saki Kuzushima, Itsuki Umeyama, Kenneth Mori McElwain, Yuki Shiraito
{"title":"IO Endorsements, Perceived Alignment, and Public Support for Unpopular Policies","authors":"Saki Kuzushima, Itsuki Umeyama, Kenneth Mori McElwain, Yuki Shiraito","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqaf073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaf073","url":null,"abstract":"Recent research on international organizations (IOs) has highlighted their capacity to influence state behavior by shaping domestic public opinion, a key channel for policy change. This paper investigates an important extension of this mechanism: whether domestic leaders can proactively leverage IO endorsements to bolster support for contentious policies. Drawing on a survey experiment examining attitudes toward a controversial tax increase in Japan, we test how the effectiveness of this tactic depends on how IOs are perceived across multiple dimensions, including neutrality and expertise. Our results show that referencing IO endorsements reduces resistance to the policy. Crucially, their impact is strongest when the IO is seen as aligned with national interests. In contrast, traits such as impartiality and technical expertise—emphasized in previous studies—play a more limited role. Moreover, the persuasive power of endorsements is concentrated among government supporters, further underscoring the importance of perceived interest alignment as a critical dimension of persuasiveness. These findings offer new insights into when and how IOs shape mass attitudes and call attention to the strategic value of perceived IO biases for domestic elites.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"76 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145089668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Functional Sovereignty in Contested Territories 争议领土的功能性主权
IF 2.6 1区 社会学
International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf069
Adrian Florea, Reyko Huang
{"title":"Functional Sovereignty in Contested Territories","authors":"Adrian Florea, Reyko Huang","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqaf069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaf069","url":null,"abstract":"Scholarship on international sovereignty generally adopts a binary conception: territories either have international recognition, or they lack it and remain unrecognized entities within fragmented states. In this article, we challenge this binary frame by introducing the notion of functional sovereignty: contested territories in practice enjoy varying degrees of sovereignty over governance functions that require external acceptance for their operation. To illustrate, we introduce a new dataset of functional sovereignty over vehicle license plates, currency, passport issuance, postal service, and national Internet domains within unrecognized (de facto) states. We theorize disputes over these functions as not only a matter of practicality, but also as contestations over symbolic assertions of sovereign statehood. Analysis of de facto state governance over these five functions shows that contested territories collectively exhibit gradations of functional sovereignty, defying binary classifications. Further, we draw conceptual and empirical distinctions between functional sovereignty and proximate phenomena, including statehood, rebel governance, and global governance. Our findings urge a greater focus on the practical dimensions of sovereignty, above and beyond its international legal aspect, for a more grounded understanding of the politics of international recognition.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145089710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Crime and Punishment in International Politics: On the Agency and Moral Standing of Community 国际政治中的罪与罚:论共同体的能动性与道德地位
IF 2.6 1区 社会学
International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf062
Evgeny Roshchin
{"title":"Crime and Punishment in International Politics: On the Agency and Moral Standing of Community","authors":"Evgeny Roshchin","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqaf062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaf062","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates how the concept of the international community was rhetorically constructed in public diplomatic discourse and endowed with both agential status and moral authority. It argues that this conceptual innovation emerged during a critical juncture in the 1920s–1930s, amid debates on collective security within the League of Nations. In response to acts of aggression that undermined the newly established international order, diplomats employed contested notions of “crime” and “punishment” to characterize state behavior. In the League's debates over the first international sanctions, references to extra-legal moral principles were used to bolster both the legitimacy and efficacy of the legal regime. Since the principle of sovereign equality precluded any single state from claiming moral authority, diplomats instead innovatively portrayed the international community as a fictive agent endowed with superior moral standing. This rhetorical move helped legitimize calls for punishing aggressors. Adopting a historically informed constructivist approach, the article illuminates how conceptual transformations within the normative order unfold through diplomatic practice. It shows how diplomatic forums can serve as platforms for conceptual innovation with lasting impact on public discourse on world politics.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144987426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Into the Fray: Explaining State Support for Non-Violent Resistance Movements Abroad 进入战斗:解释国家对国外非暴力抵抗运动的支持
IF 2.6 1区 社会学
International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf068
Maria A Lotito, Christopher W Shay, Michael A Rubin
{"title":"Into the Fray: Explaining State Support for Non-Violent Resistance Movements Abroad","authors":"Maria A Lotito, Christopher W Shay, Michael A Rubin","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqaf068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaf068","url":null,"abstract":"Under what conditions do states sponsor foreign nonviolent campaigns (FNCs) seeking to overthrow incumbent regimes? While political ideology plays a role, motivating liberal democracies to support (typically pro-democratic) campaigns, we argue strategic and material factors—specifically geo-political alignment and economic dependence—are central to explaining state sponsorship of FNCs, often overriding ideological and normative factors. A potential sponsor, whether democratic or autocratic, is unlikely to support FNCs when doing so jeopardizes a strategic partnership with the target regime, which may retaliate against the sponsor. Additionally, democracies are particularly deterred from supporting FNCs when the target regime can retaliate economically, such as by disrupting trade or other vital economic ties. To test these arguments, we leverage data from the External Support for Non-violent Campaigns Dataset, which documents global instances of state support for non-violent campaigns from 2000 to 2014. Consistent with our theory, we find that liberal democracies make up the vast majority of sponsors, but also that geo-political alignment between potential sponsor and target regime is strongly and negatively correlated with the provision of support. Moreover, economic dependence on the target reduces the likelihood of support among liberal democracies.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144930636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is There a Religious Dimension to Concern about Farmer–Herder Conflicts in Nigeria? 尼日利亚农牧民冲突是否有宗教层面的担忧?
IF 2.6 1区 社会学
International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf061
Daniel Tuki
{"title":"Is There a Religious Dimension to Concern about Farmer–Herder Conflicts in Nigeria?","authors":"Daniel Tuki","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqaf061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaf061","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the high incidence of farmer–herder conflicts in Nigeria, large-N quantitative research on the religious dimension of these conflicts remains scarce. This study addresses that gap using data from Rounds 7 and 8 of the Afrobarometer surveys conducted in Nigeria in 2017 and 2020, respectively. Specifically, it examines how religious affiliation and the religious composition of an area influence concerns about farmer–herder conflicts. Regression analysis reveals no significant difference in concern between individuals living in predominantly Muslim versus Christian areas. However, religious affiliation plays a crucial role, with Muslims generally expressing less concern about these conflicts than their Christian counterparts. Disaggregating the data by survey year, a shifting pattern emerges: In 2017, individuals in predominantly Muslim areas were less concerned about farmer–herder conflicts than those in Christian areas, but by 2020, this trend had reversed. This shift may be linked to the rise in banditry involving nomadic pastoralists in Nigeria’s predominantly Muslim Northwest region. Notably, in 2020, Muslims and Christians exhibited no significant differences in their level of concern. Further analysis shows that Muslims and residents of predominantly Muslim areas are more likely to perceive a decline in farmer–herder conflicts and report fewer experiences of pastoral conflicts around their dwellings.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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