中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-05-29DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102429
Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay , Rui Sun
{"title":"Size matters: Measuring the effects of inequality and growth shocks","authors":"Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay , Rui Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102429","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102429","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the relationship between income inequality and economic growth is of utmost importance to social scientists, but the empirical evidence is inconclusive. We use a Bayesian structural vector autoregression approach to estimate the relationship between inequality and growth for two large economies, China and the USA, from 1978 to 2018. We find that a growth shock is inequality-increasing, and an inequality shock is growth-reducing. However, the size of the effects of these shocks is extremely small, accounting for under 2% of the variance for both countries, suggesting other important socio-economic determinants of growth and inequality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102429"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-05-29DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102440
Xi Qu , Zhiwei Xu , Jinxiang Yu
{"title":"The pricing of local government bonds in China: A bank-government relationship perspective","authors":"Xi Qu , Zhiwei Xu , Jinxiang Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102440","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102440","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the pricing mechanism of local government bonds in China from the perspective of the bank-government relationship. Based on a comprehensive dataset, we find that, before the regulatory policy implemented in May 2018, bonds issued by regions more closely connected with underwriting banks in terms of local treasury cash management exhibited significantly lower spreads. However, the negative effect of the bank-government relationship on bond spreads diminished after the policy event. We validate the robustness of these findings using various econometric specifications. Mechanism analysis indicates that the regulatory policy significantly weakened the role of pre-existing bank-government relationships and encouraged greater participation of non-bank underwriters. Our estimation also rules out the channel related to the size of underwriting banks. Furthermore, we find that the aforementioned pattern is more pronounced during periods of looser market liquidity or in regions with less developed financial markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102440"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144195645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-05-28DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102445
Kevin P. Gallagher , Renliang Liu , Jiaqi Lu , Ruyu Yin , Miaojie Yu , Praveena Bandara
{"title":"China's low-carbon technology trade: Facts and implications","authors":"Kevin P. Gallagher , Renliang Liu , Jiaqi Lu , Ruyu Yin , Miaojie Yu , Praveena Bandara","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102445","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102445","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines China's evolving role in global low-carbon technology (LCT) trade and its impact on climate mitigation. The novel data suggests China's transition from a net importer to a net exporter of LCTs over the past three decades. Employing a gravity-equation framework, we identify the economic and institutional factors that drive bilateral LCT flows. Fixed-effects regressions show that China's LCT exports significantly reduce partner-country CO₂ emissions, measured in total, per-capita, and intensity terms, and that these reductions are larger for high-income partners and for the energy-storage and pollution-control LCTs. We further find that partner-country human capital, political stability, and development assistance amplify these environmental benefits. We conclude with policy recommendations including sustained R&D investment, stable export prices, encouragement of outward FDI, further trade liberalization and improved international dialogue on capacity issues to advance global sustainable trade and decarbonization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102445"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-05-28DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102453
Zhifang Su , Haowei Wang , Yinghao Pan
{"title":"Risk education and tax aggressiveness: Evidence from China's auditor certification reform","authors":"Zhifang Su , Haowei Wang , Yinghao Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102453","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102453","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how auditors' risk education affects corporate tax aggressiveness, leveraging China's 2009 CPA examination reform as a quasi-natural experiment. Firms audited by “new regime” auditors (post-reform) exhibit significantly lower tax aggressiveness than those audited by pre-reform auditors. This effect is more pronounced for firms with weaker governance and greater information asymmetry. We find enhanced risk awareness and improved professional capability are key channels. These findings highlight auditor education's importance in enhancing audit effectiveness and shaping corporate tax behavior, with implications for corporate governance reforms like China's 2024 Company Law amendment regarding audit committees.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102453"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144195642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-05-26DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102447
Xiuheng Shen , Yucheng Sun , Xianbo Zhou
{"title":"The political legacy of disease control: Evidence from a polio vaccination campaign in China","authors":"Xiuheng Shen , Yucheng Sun , Xianbo Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102447","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102447","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although recent studies have explored the long-term effects of disease control on individuals' educational and labor market outcomes, much less is known about its political consequences. This paper uses the polio vaccination campaign in China as a successful historical event to analyze how disease control interventions affect political trust in adulthood. By combining province-level variation in prevaccine incidence with cohort-level variation in trust-formation ages, we construct individual exposure to the vaccination campaign using a difference-in- differences strategy. Our findings show that exposure to the polio vaccination campaign during the trust-formation period positively affects trust in local government over four decades later. Mechanism analysis highlights that internal belief formation and updates are crucial for these long-term impacts. Further evidence indicates that this trust-building effect is specific to political institutions and public health sectors. Our findings indicate the importance of understanding historical disease control interventions for state legitimacy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102447"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144189949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-05-26DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102448
Melanie Jones , Ezgi Kaya , Jiarui Nan
{"title":"Overeducation, earnings and job satisfaction among graduates in China","authors":"Melanie Jones , Ezgi Kaya , Jiarui Nan","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102448","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102448","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using nationally representative longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (2014–2020), this paper examines the relationship between overeducation, earnings and job satisfaction among graduates in China. We find consistent evidence of wage and job satisfaction penalties across multiple established measures of overeducation, even after accounting for personal and work-related characteristics. Although widely discussed in the literature, differences in academic subject and cognitive and non-cognitive skills account for only a modest part of the pay penalty. Controlling for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity reduces the size of overeducation pay penalties and, in several cases, removes their statistical significance, suggesting the role of other forms of unobserved individual heterogeneity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102448"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144195643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-05-26DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102450
Xiao-Lin Li, Rong-Jing Zhang
{"title":"Effects of credit misallocation on systemic risk of non-financial corporations: The role of monetary policy","authors":"Xiao-Lin Li, Rong-Jing Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102450","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102450","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Motivated by the stylized facts of aggravated credit misallocation and systemic risk in China's real sector, this paper examines the effect of credit misallocation on the systemic risk of non-financial corporations (NFCs) and the role of monetary policy in moderating the effect, leveraging the annual financial data of Chinese non-financial listed corporations from 2007 to 2020. The results indicate that credit misallocation significantly elevates the systemic risk of NFCs in China, but a persistently moderate monetary policy mitigates this effect. The results are robust to changing the measurement of key variables and addressing endogeneity problems. Further analysis reveals that the moderation and continuity in the monetary policy stance alleviates the effect by curbing NFCs' over-indebtedness, trade credit interlinkages, and joint exposure to financial risks. Our findings advance the understanding of systemic risk drivers and offer policy insights for optimizing monetary frameworks to reduce systemic risk accumulation in real economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102450"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144195644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-05-20DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102446
Lu Lin , Yuanhao He
{"title":"Place-based policies and gendered human capital formation: Evidence and mechanisms","authors":"Lu Lin , Yuanhao He","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102446","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102446","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Place-based policies have been found to promote local human capital investment. However, their benefits are unevenly distributed between genders. Based on a cohort difference-in-difference-in-differences design, we identify the gendered effects of place-based policies on local human capital formation. Exposure to Special Economic Zones (SEZs) upgradings significantly reduces the gender gap in higher education access. Mechanism analysis shows that improved female labor market outcomes led by SEZ spillovers to the local non-knowledge-intensive service (non-KIBS) sector, instead of labor market changes within SEZs, drive this effect. Increased family income accounts for a small part of the effect. We find no evidence for channels through shifts in gender norms. The effects are more pronounced in rural families, technology-oriented SEZs, and less developed regions. Our findings highlight the importance of developing the female-intensive service sector and shifting social norms in place-based policy designs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102446"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-05-16DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102443
Qing Huang , Ruixin Wang , Yu Xie , Xiaobo Zhang
{"title":"Profiling Chinese entrepreneurs","authors":"Qing Huang , Ruixin Wang , Yu Xie , Xiaobo Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102443","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102443","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Entrepreneurship has played a crucial role in China's economic growth. However, research has predominantly focused on listed firms and state-owned enterprises, overlooking the vast number of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) due to data paucity. Limited knowledge exists on the characteristics of entrepreneurs, particularly those in the SME sector. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by profiling two types of Chinese entrepreneurs: self-employed and incorporated private business owners. The analysis utilizes data from two large surveys of entrepreneurs and salaried workers conducted in the same six provinces of China (<em>N</em> = 8948, comprising 3218 self-employed entrepreneurs, 1338 incorporated entrepreneurs, and 4392 salaried workers). The comparison reveals that self-employed entrepreneurs share more similarities with incorporated entrepreneurs than salaried workers in terms of key personality traits. Both groups of entrepreneurs exhibit higher risk tolerance, greater trust in others, and stronger interpersonal skills compared to their salaried counterparts. On the other hand, self-employed entrepreneurs align more closely with salaried workers in terms of human capital and family background than with incorporated entrepreneurs. The findings suggest that equalizing opportunities, particularly in education, could pave the way for self-employed entrepreneurs to transition into incorporated entrepreneurship.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102443"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102441
Cheng Peng , Yawen Qiao , Hai Long , Yaxing Wang
{"title":"Assessing economic resilience in a manufacturing-based region through industrial restructuring with environmental thresholds: An updating framework","authors":"Cheng Peng , Yawen Qiao , Hai Long , Yaxing Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102441","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102441","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Short run economic recovery from external shocks has been extensively discussed; however, the contribution of industrial reshaping strategies to economic resilience for coping with slow-burning shocks has not been adequately investigated. Examining data from 41 cities in China's Yangtze River Economic Zone during 2011–2020, this study develops a theoretical framework to investigate how industrial restructuring facilitated regional economic recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis in the long run. The updating framework shows that industrial reshaping may robustly promote regional economic resilience in the restructuring process, and that both technology- and innovation-based strategies are more significant and promoted in developed regions. Environmental governance has a positive mediating effect on the relationship when local environmental intensity is beyond the threshold value; otherwise, it has a negative effect. This study provides crucial reference values for the government to adopt an appropriate strategy to aid regional economic recovery from external shocks at different resilience stages, particularly in the restructuring process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102441"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144084652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}