中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-07-12DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102481
Zhaoyong Chen , David Leung , Joseph Mai
{"title":"A proposed tax reform for China: Enhancing consumption and pension sustainability","authors":"Zhaoyong Chen , David Leung , Joseph Mai","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the long-run effects of a proposed tax reform in China that shifts the burden from income taxes to consumption taxes, addressing the dual challenges of an aging population and low household consumption. Using a heterogeneous-agent overlapping generations (OLG) model with earnings and health risks, we evaluate the tax reform that reallocates fiscal burdens while accounting for marital status and gender. Our findings show that demographic aging significantly raises income and payroll tax pressures, reducing consumption and welfare. In contrast, consumption tax-based reform enhances capital accumulation, sustains pensions without raising payroll taxes, and improves welfare. The results show the value of consumption taxation in promoting fiscal sustainability and efficiency in aging societies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102481"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144656030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-07-12DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102502
Haolin Li , Sirui Cheng , Xiuping Hua , Yong Wang
{"title":"The mitigating effects of blockchain adoption on supply chain financing disruptions under crises: Evidence from China","authors":"Haolin Li , Sirui Cheng , Xiuping Hua , Yong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102502","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102502","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper investigates the negative effect of the COVID-19 crisis on supply chain financing in China. It examines the role of blockchain adoption in mitigating such disruptions by using data from Chinese firms between 2015 and 2022 and employs textual analysis to construct indexes on firms' blockchain innovation and supply chain risk exposure. We find that firms with high supply chain risk experience a more significant reduction in formal and informal financing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, blockchain adoption helps provide more resilience to supply chain financing disruptions in the crisis by enhancing information transparency, corporate governance, and production network efficiency. Further analysis shows that the alleviation effect is heterogeneous and more pronounced for firms with private ownership and lower social trust. The main results remain consistent using alternative measures based on Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT), a large language model. Our paper highlights the importance of digital technology advancement in protecting supply chain security under crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102502"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144661951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-07-12DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102501
Tingyu Liu , Peng Huang , Qiaoru Wang
{"title":"Artificial intelligence and intra-firm pay dispersion: Evidence from China","authors":"Tingyu Liu , Peng Huang , Qiaoru Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102501","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102501","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of AI on intra-firm pay dispersion using a patent database and a micro-database of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2003 to 2021. The results indicate AI adoption reduce intra-firm pay dispersion, primarily through its suppression effect on executive compensation. This effect is particularly pronounced in firms characterized by capital-intensive operations, non-state ownership, and coastal locations. While organizational scale expansion partially offsets AI's role in narrowing pay dispersion, task-based decomposition reveals AI exacerbates wage polarization by disproportionately reduces wage of labors specializing in routine tasks. Additionally, industry-level analysis confirms that AI amplifies wage inequality both within and across sectors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102501"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144634022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-07-12DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102497
Xinyu Ge , Yan Liu , Yutong Yang
{"title":"Technology, regulation, and the transformation of bank deposit business in China","authors":"Xinyu Ge , Yan Liu , Yutong Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102497","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102497","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During the past decade, technology innovations and regulatory reforms have been swiftly transforming deposit business in China’s banking sector. To understand the transformation, this paper first constructs a model incorporating both large and small banks, as well as a FinTech sector, to analyze how technological and regulatory shocks impact bank deposit business. The paper then systematically examines the evolution of business practices and the differential responses of banks with varying sizes to three major shocks: the launch of Yu’e Bao in 2013, the full marketization of deposit rates in 2015, and the massive shadow banking regulation in 2017. Consistent with the model, large banks accelerate digital transformation and expand wealth management products following FinTech competition, while small banks compete more aggressively on deposit rates. The effectiveness of these strategies varies with market structure: large banks’ digital initiatives are more pronounced in regions with higher FinTech penetration, while small banks engage in more aggressive deposit rate competition in less concentrated markets. Our findings provide a comprehensive account of the evolution in the banking sector, with various policy implications in navigating the ever-evolving financial landscape in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102497"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144631496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-07-11DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102506
Guo Dongmei , Guo Tao , Li Bing , Xie Chaoping
{"title":"Trade policy uncertainty and agricultural specialization: Evidence from rural household in China","authors":"Guo Dongmei , Guo Tao , Li Bing , Xie Chaoping","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102506","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102506","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of reductions in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on household-level agricultural cultivation strategies. Utilizing a comprehensive national household-product level dataset from the National Fixed Point Survey (NFS) spanning the period from 1998 to 2008, we uncover compelling evidence that rural households tend to enhance their degree of planting specialization as TPU diminishes, attributable to China's accession to the WTO. This finding remains robust across various regression models and alternative measures of variables, and is particularly pronounced among households with lower risk aversion and in prefectures with poorer transportation conditions. Further analysis reveals that the underlying mechanisms driving this phenomenon are primarily the household investment in productive resources and the exploitation of comparative advantages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102506"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144670424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-07-11DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102505
Yinze Zhang, Jianqing Ruan, Yuwei Zhang
{"title":"Industrial policies and development of grain clusters: Evidence from China's policy in major grain-producing areas","authors":"Yinze Zhang, Jianqing Ruan, Yuwei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102505","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102505","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Grain shortage remains a prominent concern in many developing countries. While clusters are recognized as effective forms of industrial organization, there is limited empirical studies regarding on which industrial policies effectively promote the development of grain clusters. This study addresses this gap by using a comprehensive dataset CCAD, which covers nearly all agro-related enterprises registered in China, through which we identified the enterprises in each link of the grain industry chain and provided a detailed account of the evolution of grain clusters. Employing a difference-in-differences strategy, we empirically evaluated the impact of China's policy in major grain-producing areas (MGPA) on grain clusters. Our findings indicate a significant contribution of the policy in MGPA to the development of grain clusters, and its impact varies across different links in the grain industry chain. Subsequent analyses reveal that the impact is driven by several mechanisms, including government fiscal support, grain subsidies, profit expectation and the the number and scale of entered grain enterprises. This study also finds that in areas where cooperatives and family farms are fully developed, policy effects are more pronounced. These findings highlight the crucial impact of industrial policies on shaping grain cluster development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102505"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144657074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-07-10DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102459
Jichuan Zong , Eelke de Jong , Jianying Qiu , Jing Li
{"title":"Socially appropriate intervention: A cross-country investigation of third-party norm enforcement","authors":"Jichuan Zong , Eelke de Jong , Jianying Qiu , Jing Li","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102459","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102459","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The enforcement of social norms is considered an important motivation for third-party intervention. We provide direct evidence for this theory in a cross-country experimental trust game with a sender, a receiver, and a third party who can punish or reward the receiver at their own cost. As a novelty, we share norm-relevant information – the sender’s expectation – with the third party and manipulate the level of norm uncertainty by having the third party interact with players from the same country versus from a different country. Our results suggest that third parties respond to the norm-relevant information when deciding on the intervention, and more so when they intervene with players from a different country. These results support the role of social norms in motivating third-party intervention.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102459"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144661953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-07-08DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102499
Yichen Shen
{"title":"Does education affect fertility timing? Evidence from Taiwan","authors":"Yichen Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102499","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102499","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the causal effect of Taiwan's 1968 compulsory schooling laws (CSLs) on fertility timing for women using a fuzzy regression discontinuity approach. I demonstrate that the CSLs have delayed women's fertility timing. The estimates reveal that the CSLs reduced the probability of women having children for first and second births at a young age and increased the probability of having children at an older age for first and second births, implying an intertemporal substitution of childbirth for these births. My investigation of the mechanisms involved indicates that women delaying marriage drove this relationship. Overall, the findings indicate that the CSLs have significantly affected the fertility timing of women in Taiwan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102499"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144686305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-07-05DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102482
Zhuo Chen , Kunlun Wang
{"title":"How air pollution affects innovation value in China urban area?","authors":"Zhuo Chen , Kunlun Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102482","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102482","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most studies focus on the short-term economic consequences of air pollution, rather than its long-term impacts on urban development, such like innovation. Although a few studies have analyzed its impact on one way of inventive output–patent counts, ignoring differences in patent quality would make the findings lack economic interpretation. Therefore, this study utilizes a patent renewal model with micro-foundation to estimate the patent value by city (industry) in China. With the help of thermal inversion as an exogenous source of air pollution, our IV estimation finds that a 1% increase in air pollution leads to 1.19% decrease in patent value. Pollution damage is greater at low-to-medium level and is salient in the manufacturing sector. We also explore some mechanisms at the intensive and extensive margins, including the decline in innovation capacity, the shift to low-quality inventions, and the reduction in innovative bodies. Furthermore, we also discuss in detail why the estimated elasticity is larger than other studies, which contributes to re-evaluate the huge cost of air pollution on the economy, especially in the developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102482"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144656034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-07-04DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102489
Ginger Zhe Jin , Hsienming Lien , Xuezhen Tao
{"title":"Top-up design and health care expenditure: Evidence from cardiac stents","authors":"Ginger Zhe Jin , Hsienming Lien , Xuezhen Tao","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102489","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102489","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since 2006, Taiwan’s National Health Insurance (NHI) has covered the full cost of baseline treatment in cardiac stents (bare-metal stents, BMS). Still, it requires patients to pay the price difference for more expensive treatment (drug-eluting stents, DES). Within this “top-up” design, we study how hospitals responded to a 26% cut of the NHI reimbursement rate in 2009. In contrast with hospitals with no previous revenue from stent treatment, hospitals that were more revenue-dependent on cardiac patients reduced the likelihood of stent implantation by 21.2%, increased BMS usage per stent patient by 0.10 or 11.9% but not DES usage. Furthermore, while the average DES price remains insensitive to the rate cut across the whole sample, minor teaching hospitals previously more dependent on stent patients increased the DES price and therefore could recoup at least half of the revenue loss from the NHI rate cut in 2009-2010. In general, the rate cut was effective in reducing NHI expenditure without substantial changes in patient outcomes, although some minor teaching hospitals made moral hazard adjustments in response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102489"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}