Trade policy uncertainty and agricultural specialization: Evidence from rural household in China

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102506

Guo Dongmei , Guo Tao , Li Bing , Xie Chaoping

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study examines the impact of reductions in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on household-level agricultural cultivation strategies. Utilizing a comprehensive national household-product level dataset from the National Fixed Point Survey (NFS) spanning the period from 1998 to 2008, we uncover compelling evidence that rural households tend to enhance their degree of planting specialization as TPU diminishes, attributable to China's accession to the WTO. This finding remains robust across various regression models and alternative measures of variables, and is particularly pronounced among households with lower risk aversion and in prefectures with poorer transportation conditions. Further analysis reveals that the underlying mechanisms driving this phenomenon are primarily the household investment in productive resources and the exploitation of comparative advantages.

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贸易政策不确定性与农业专业化：来自中国农户的证据

本研究探讨贸易政策不确定性（TPU）的降低对农户农业种植策略的影响。利用1998年至2008年国家定点调查（NFS）的综合全国家庭产品水平数据集，我们发现了令人信服的证据，即由于中国加入WTO，随着TPU的降低，农户倾向于提高其种植专业化程度。这一发现在各种回归模型和变量的替代测量方法中仍然强劲，在风险厌恶程度较低的家庭和交通条件较差的县中尤为明显。进一步分析表明，推动这一现象的潜在机制主要是家庭对生产资源的投资和对比较优势的利用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.60

自引率

4.40%

发文量

380

期刊介绍： The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.